I predict a massive financial case next 5 years

[NickZ24]

bhstewie said:

This is what listening to Hussman would have done for your wealth.

That guy has spent ten years telling anyone who would listen that the sky is falling in and if you listened and invested in his fund it would have lost you 4% a year whilst the S&P would have returned nearly 13% a year.

Be careful who you listen to.

Reality is nobody knows what will happen and when.

Yeap and even If, there is much money in the system, too much? Most likely not.

For the world it is good it it would be better distributed. It would take care of the immigrant issues the 1st world is having.
I don't invest in the US Stock Exchange. And out local stock exchange is a little shy on data.

[CoolHands]

okgo said:

I’m actually going to back-peddle here - I’ve googled it and it DOES actually mean something in financial circles.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/melt-up.asp#:...

hmm it appears to be an americanism and as such I won’t be back peddling! It remains stupid.

[NickZ24]

CoolHands said:

mm it appears to be an americanism and as such I won’t be back peddling! It remains stupid.

investopedia.com said:

And was it over- or under-priced? These questions often help investors focus on intrinsic value over hype.

and

businessinsider.com said:

"It is time to stop viewing crises as exceptional events and admit how frequently shocks actually occur," Roach said. "Crises and the 'extraordinary' developments they spawn are now the rule, not the exception," he later added.

https://archive.is/6bCZl

https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-recession-...

All talk about melt up and down
Investors lose, but pay less taxes due to losses.

[Simpo Two]

businessinsider.com said:

"It is time to stop viewing crises as exceptional events and admit how frequently shocks actually occur," Roach said. "Crises and the 'extraordinary' developments they spawn are now the rule, not the exception," he later added.

Yes. I've noticed over the last few years how everything is now a 'crisis'. The same as a modest 22C in the weather forecast being shown on the map as an angry red and described as being the hottest day since last May. Technically true but entirely pointless.

WW2 - now that was a crisis.

[soupdragon1]

Simpo Two said:

Yes. I've noticed over the last few years how everything is now a 'crisis'. The same as a modest 22C in the weather forecast being shown on the map as an angry red and described as being the hottest day since last May. Technically true but entirely pointless.

WW2 - now that was a crisis.

Talking of crisis, or maybe, not so big a crisis. Can we call Liz Truss mini budget a mini crisis?

I often wonder though, if that mini budget didn't happen, would mortgage rates be roughly where they are now anyway? Was that mini budget just an accelerant to where we were going to anyway, just that Liz Truss brought us to that place via a supersonic jet instead of a car? Something I've been pondering...

[bitchstewie]

Simpo Two said:

Yes. I've noticed over the last few years how everything is now a 'crisis'. The same as a modest 22C in the weather forecast being shown on the map as an angry red and described as being the hottest day since last May. Technically true but entirely pointless.

WW2 - now that was a crisis.

It's what commentators do.

If you ever watch CNBC or Bloomberg it's amazing how often "Stocks Plunge" or "Stocks Soar" and when you look the S&P will be up or down 2% or something daft.

[OoopsVoss]

soupdragon1 said:

Talking of crisis, or maybe, not so big a crisis. Can we call Liz Truss mini budget a mini crisis?

I often wonder though, if that mini budget didn't happen, would mortgage rates be roughly where they are now anyway? Was that mini budget just an accelerant to where we were going to anyway, just that Liz Truss brought us to that place via a supersonic jet instead of a car? Something I've been pondering...

I don't think the short term damage to cable was enough to impact the broader inflationary pressures. The impact looks to be quite isolated to a period running from Sept-Nov 2022 - that would be having a big impact on imported commodities - in that period (interestingly oil was off a peak in that period - so likely sheltered some of the impact). Realistically the Fed was doing more to inflation in 2022 (and by extension borrowing costs) - than Truss could have done. Inflation rate is one of the primary factors driving borrowing costs, with things like wage growth being the now latest and probably last barrier to cutting borrowing costs (obviously NMW increased in April).

[Caddyshack]

soupdragon1 said:

Simpo Two said:

Yes. I've noticed over the last few years how everything is now a 'crisis'. The same as a modest 22C in the weather forecast being shown on the map as an angry red and described as being the hottest day since last May. Technically true but entirely pointless.

WW2 - now that was a crisis.

Talking of crisis, or maybe, not so big a crisis. Can we call Liz Truss mini budget a mini crisis?

I often wonder though, if that mini budget didn't happen, would mortgage rates be roughly where they are now anyway? Was that mini budget just an accelerant to where we were going to anyway, just that Liz Truss brought us to that place via a supersonic jet instead of a car? Something I've been pondering...

I believe her mini budget triggered something that was either poised to happen or was an odd knee jerk reaction. It made no sense to me that what she said and did made it happen in raw mechanics.

[NickZ24]

Simpo Two said:

Yes. I've noticed over the last few years how everything is now a 'crisis'. The same as a modest 22C in the weather forecast being shown on the map as an angry red and described as being the hottest day since last May. Technically true but entirely pointless.

WW2 - now that was a crisis.

Basically we hear a inflation in vocabulary?
Any raise of +3% is a storm and hype.
While a 3% drop is a catastrophe of biblical dimensions. jejeje
Drama queens in the press. New hashtag.

[Simpo Two]

soupdragon1 said:

Talking of crisis, or maybe, not so big a crisis. Can we call Liz Truss mini budget a mini crisis?

I often wonder though, if that mini budget didn't happen, would mortgage rates be roughly where they are now anyway? Was that mini budget just an accelerant to where we were going to anyway, just that Liz Truss brought us to that place via a supersonic jet instead of a car? Something I've been pondering...

Liz Truss had the right ideas but tried to do it in two weeks rather than two years. The kicking she got from the media was a field day; 99% of people watching the news had never heard of gilts. Interest rates today are nothing to with her brief reign as PM. Mind you, it was clear to me from the word go that she wasn't electable material. The only person who stood a chance of winning the next election was Boris, but first the media and then his own party shot him to pieces. Once the media don't like you, you're fked.

[Simpo Two]

NickZ24 said:

Basically we hear a inflation in vocabulary?
Any raise of +3% is a storm and hype.
While a 3% drop is a catastrophe of biblical dimensions. jejeje
Drama queens in the press. New hashtag.

Sadly yes. You might expect it from the gutter press, but not from the BBC etc. They just can't help it. Damn media studies graduates...!

[NickZ24]

Simpo Two said:

Sadly yes. You might expect it from the gutter press, but not from the BBC etc. They just can't help it. Damn media studies graduates...!

When was the last time you leafed through the BBC? The Video section is full with drama, their future of work section is daydreaming 2.0 and so on.

[Simpo Two]

NickZ24 said:

Simpo Two said:

Sadly yes. You might expect it from the gutter press, but not from the BBC etc. They just can't help it. Damn media studies graduates...!

When was the last time you leafed through the BBC? The Video section is full with drama, their future of work section is daydreaming 2.0 and so on.

I meant the TV news. Not much interested in drama. You could argue life has enough of that already, without watching more. But if they are all drama graduates (well it's easy) I suppose that's why we get drama...