EVs... no one wants them!
Discussion
KingGary said:
nickfrog said:
Are you saying that nobody will want an 8 year old Polestar 2, even at, say, £2k?
Is that a fact?
Of course not as I don’t have access to time travel. However, if a 3 year old, £60k Polestar 2 is currently worth £17k (29%), compared to the 50% a ICE would be worth, it doesn’t look great for residuals. Is that a fact?
You are ignoring discounts off new and the likely impact of the fiscal benefits to the first owner.
The market has corrected both. Its value has been reset by the market. For all we know it will perform far better than an equivalent ICE now.
But it does take time for your average punter to get their head round the very particular depreciation curve. Resistance to change is still prevalent as demonstrated in this thread and particularly by you.
740EVTORQUES said:
TheRainMaker said:
DonkeyApple said:
What's the relevance of the price you paid to the historic RRP number though?
It makes me feel like I got a bargain 
but after reading loads on here about i3s, I thought I would try one.TheRainMaker said:
740EVTORQUES said:
TheRainMaker said:
DonkeyApple said:
What's the relevance of the price you paid to the historic RRP number though?
It makes me feel like I got a bargain but after reading loads on here about i3s, I thought I would try one.Mind you, on the i3 the dust cap check when it does go in for a service must be quite a nail biting, adrenaline fuelled moment!!
romft123 said:
DonkeyApple said:
romft123 said:
some cheap newer models Leafs on AT at the mo
I wonder if they represent good value caused by the legacy fears of the early ones?DonkeyApple said:
Indeed but as seen on this thread, plenty of punters know about the original Leaf and that's all they need to know.
The latest LEAF is certainly a development of the Mk 1 but you'd be surprised how much it shares. Doors, some glasshouse, floorpan, seats even the batteries are directly interchangeable.DonkeyApple said:
KingGary said:
A used Polestar may compare favourably alongside another used EV nobody wants, but the thought of spending 20k of my own money that’ll be almost worthless in 5 or so years doesn’t appeal. Look at the facts, manufacturers cannot shift the things and anyone who does their homework can see that.
You've just got the wrong timeframe requirements for it to work for you though. The value of goods could go to zero at the point of purchase but all that matters is when one plans to dispose of those goods. If it's the next day then that is quite a large expenditure but if it is in 3650 days time then it could be the bargain of a lifetime. Plus, it's not that 'nobody wants used EVs', that's very obviously wrong and just a hyperbolic statement. The reality is that people do want used EVs, hence why they're selling but that the consumer segment that does want them is not the normal debt and spend chappie but the lessor spotted 'I'll pay what it's worth for me' chappie and what that smaller consumer segment is telling manufacturers is that they got their 3 year debt funding algo badly wrong by assuming they'd be able to artificially manipulate used values upwards as they've been able to with ICE since the change in consumer lending regs of the 90s.
Plus, people just keep comparing used values to RRP numbers for some very baffling reason.
Currently, the only way to fix that is for the manufacturers to discount them significantly using finance models like PCP and leasing.
Those cheap Hondas flew of the shelves once there was a huge deposit contribution and an unrealistic future value.
Much harder to do with secondhand cars though as, typically, the manufacturers have no interest in used units.
The other factor is that the new units that are being shifted, are subsidised by tax benefits or manufacturer desperation to hit the ZEV percentage.
So loads of them come off leases / PcP that has been subsidised in some way and further depress used values.
It’s going to take a while to work itself through the system. And until it does, spending a decent amount of your own money on a used EV is riskier than doing the same on an ICE car.
Which is, in turn, why dealers are wary of taking trade ins or buying used EV stock at auction.
confused_buyer said:
DonkeyApple said:
Indeed but as seen on this thread, plenty of punters know about the original Leaf and that's all they need to know.
The latest LEAF is certainly a development of the Mk 1 but you'd be surprised how much it shares. Doors, some glasshouse, floorpan, seats even the batteries are directly interchangeable.DonkeyApple said:
But wasn't the reason the early Leafs munched their batteries due to mixed cell qualities, no cooling system and a poor BMS?
The very early Japan built ones yes but a 2013 on UK built LEAF has the same battery cooling and basic BMS as a 2024 one (albeit larger capacity).survivalist said:
It’s not that the ‘debt and spend chappie’ isn’t interested, it’s just that the poor residual values for BEV mean that they aren’t good value to the private buyer.
Isn't that precisely what makes them really good value used for the private buyer?Their inherent initial depreciation has now gone as explained up thread. They might now be a good bet from a depreciation point of view, compared to ICE.
MX30 prices are very low but also have been quite stable for some time, perhaps 6 months. This may or may not be an indicator of the future direction of travel.
Edited by nickfrog on Sunday 12th May 14:14
confused_buyer said:
DonkeyApple said:
But wasn't the reason the early Leafs munched their batteries due to mixed cell qualities, no cooling system and a poor BMS?
The very early Japan built ones yes but a 2013 on UK built LEAF has the same battery cooling and basic BMS as a 2024 one (albeit larger capacity).(I may be wrong on this, but whenever I've stopped, there seems to be fewer of those connectors - Gridserve used to do them, but their newer installs don't seem to have any).
Big Nanas said:
I suppose the other issue with the earlier LEAFs is the Chademo charge connectors. Seems to be far fewer of those in the public charging domain, which definitely will make planing longer distances a problem.
(I may be wrong on this, but whenever I've stopped, there seems to be fewer of those connectors - Gridserve used to do them, but their newer installs don't seem to have any).
All LEAFs have Chademo up to and including the last one made this year (I may be wrong on this, but whenever I've stopped, there seems to be fewer of those connectors - Gridserve used to do them, but their newer installs don't seem to have any).
survivalist said:
It’s not that the ‘debt and spend chappie’ isn’t interested, it’s just that the poor residual values for BEV mean that they aren’t good value to the private buyer.
Currently, the only way to fix that is for the manufacturers to discount them significantly using finance models like PCP and leasing.
Those cheap Hondas flew of the shelves once there was a huge deposit contribution and an unrealistic future value.
Much harder to do with secondhand cars though as, typically, the manufacturers have no interest in used units.
The other factor is that the new units that are being shifted, are subsidised by tax benefits or manufacturer desperation to hit the ZEV percentage.
So loads of them come off leases / PcP that has been subsidised in some way and further depress used values.
It’s going to take a while to work itself through the system. And until it does, spending a decent amount of your own money on a used EV is riskier than doing the same on an ICE car.
Which is, in turn, why dealers are wary of taking trade ins or buying used EV stock at auction.
Yup. The manufacturers got their finance sums badly wrong which has been a huge help. They priced their PCP end of term values using ICE assumptions and thought they could control those prices anyway by just fiddling with auction supply as per usual. What they didn't factor in was the huge consumer disparity between new buyers utilising BIK and used buyers not remotely interested in over paying. Add on top of that Tesla dumping prices and it's been fantastic for used EV prices as they've fallen too quickly for the owning finance house to keep control. Currently, the only way to fix that is for the manufacturers to discount them significantly using finance models like PCP and leasing.
Those cheap Hondas flew of the shelves once there was a huge deposit contribution and an unrealistic future value.
Much harder to do with secondhand cars though as, typically, the manufacturers have no interest in used units.
The other factor is that the new units that are being shifted, are subsidised by tax benefits or manufacturer desperation to hit the ZEV percentage.
So loads of them come off leases / PcP that has been subsidised in some way and further depress used values.
It’s going to take a while to work itself through the system. And until it does, spending a decent amount of your own money on a used EV is riskier than doing the same on an ICE car.
Which is, in turn, why dealers are wary of taking trade ins or buying used EV stock at auction.
The simple reality is that EVs aren't ICE and very obviously depreciate by their own curve not that of ICE. That curve will be sharper at the front end due to the huge tax skew but then follow a different path to ICE as the battery dominates the perception of worth and of course, over a sufficient duration the true usability of the EV does actually decline.
EVs are not ICE so the vendors need to use appropriate finance structures for shifting the two different products. With EVs, while those large BIK subsidies and other front end tax breaks hold the first user must pay for that in their PCP figure, which they almost certainly wouldn't realise anyway. Because the one thing that has been proven is that the next user who gets none of those breaks isn't remotely interested in paying for them.
The irony being that what really helps keep used EV values correct and set by the customer is the fact that absolutely no one has to have an EV. Which rather flies in the face of those wailing that they're being ordered by The Man to use an EV right now!
The key with used EVs is that everything has a price and the manufacturers, apart from Tesla got their PCP calculations woefully wrong and ended up with assets on their balance sheets that simply weren't worth what their algo chappies predicted they would be because they used the wrong data. It has nothing at all to do 'no one wanting an EV' but everything to do with the vendors just failing to shift them at the prices that they want.
confused_buyer said:
Big Nanas said:
I suppose the other issue with the earlier LEAFs is the Chademo charge connectors. Seems to be far fewer of those in the public charging domain, which definitely will make planing longer distances a problem.
(I may be wrong on this, but whenever I've stopped, there seems to be fewer of those connectors - Gridserve used to do them, but their newer installs don't seem to have any).
All LEAFs have Chademo up to and including the last one made this year (I may be wrong on this, but whenever I've stopped, there seems to be fewer of those connectors - Gridserve used to do them, but their newer installs don't seem to have any).
Big Nanas said:
Oh really. I thought they were moving to CCS. I guess it must still work for their buyers though.
Future Nissans are moving to CCS but the LEAF in all guises thus far is Chademo. The LEAF is now out of production in the UK - the last one was made a couple of months ago.DonkeyApple said:
survivalist said:
It’s not that the ‘debt and spend chappie’ isn’t interested, it’s just that the poor residual values for BEV mean that they aren’t good value to the private buyer.
Currently, the only way to fix that is for the manufacturers to discount them significantly using finance models like PCP and leasing.
Those cheap Hondas flew of the shelves once there was a huge deposit contribution and an unrealistic future value.
Much harder to do with secondhand cars though as, typically, the manufacturers have no interest in used units.
The other factor is that the new units that are being shifted, are subsidised by tax benefits or manufacturer desperation to hit the ZEV percentage.
So loads of them come off leases / PcP that has been subsidised in some way and further depress used values.
It’s going to take a while to work itself through the system. And until it does, spending a decent amount of your own money on a used EV is riskier than doing the same on an ICE car.
Which is, in turn, why dealers are wary of taking trade ins or buying used EV stock at auction.
Yup. The manufacturers got their finance sums badly wrong which has been a huge help. They priced their PCP end of term values using ICE assumptions and thought they could control those prices anyway by just fiddling with auction supply as per usual. What they didn't factor in was the huge consumer disparity between new buyers utilising BIK and used buyers not remotely interested in over paying. Add on top of that Tesla dumping prices and it's been fantastic for used EV prices as they've fallen too quickly for the owning finance house to keep control. Currently, the only way to fix that is for the manufacturers to discount them significantly using finance models like PCP and leasing.
Those cheap Hondas flew of the shelves once there was a huge deposit contribution and an unrealistic future value.
Much harder to do with secondhand cars though as, typically, the manufacturers have no interest in used units.
The other factor is that the new units that are being shifted, are subsidised by tax benefits or manufacturer desperation to hit the ZEV percentage.
So loads of them come off leases / PcP that has been subsidised in some way and further depress used values.
It’s going to take a while to work itself through the system. And until it does, spending a decent amount of your own money on a used EV is riskier than doing the same on an ICE car.
Which is, in turn, why dealers are wary of taking trade ins or buying used EV stock at auction.
The simple reality is that EVs aren't ICE and very obviously depreciate by their own curve not that of ICE. That curve will be sharper at the front end due to the huge tax skew but then follow a different path to ICE as the battery dominates the perception of worth and of course, over a sufficient duration the true usability of the EV does actually decline.
EVs are not ICE so the vendors need to use appropriate finance structures for shifting the two different products. With EVs, while those large BIK subsidies and other front end tax breaks hold the first user must pay for that in their PCP figure, which they almost certainly wouldn't realise anyway. Because the one thing that has been proven is that the next user who gets none of those breaks isn't remotely interested in paying for them.
The irony being that what really helps keep used EV values correct and set by the customer is the fact that absolutely no one has to have an EV. Which rather flies in the face of those wailing that they're being ordered by The Man to use an EV right now!
The key with used EVs is that everything has a price and the manufacturers, apart from Tesla got their PCP calculations woefully wrong and ended up with assets on their balance sheets that simply weren't worth what their algo chappies predicted they would be because they used the wrong data. It has nothing at all to do 'no one wanting an EV' but everything to do with the vendors just failing to shift them at the prices that they want.
If they restrict supply of ICE vehicles (as suggested earlier in this thread) they risk making ICE residuals even stronger - it becomes a vicious circle.
Or they keep dropping the price of their BEV offering, further damaging BEV residuals.
Same result either way.
One option would be to move to more of a ‘permanent’ lease model, where the manufacturers take the car back after the initial lease, but then offer it at a cheaper price to the second ‘owner’ as it’s a used vehicle. Downside is that they’d have to offer extended warranty for the period if the second lease.
That’s also assuming that this takes enough risk away from the second ‘owner’ that it appeals to them over the equivalent ICE offering.
We ended up leasing a BEV for Mrs S because, even after a 30% discount off list for a new one, I still think it’ll work out cheaper than buying and trading/selling after 3 years.
Looked at buying an even cheaper 2 year old one, but once you factor in extended warranty and a set of new tyres the cost difference compared to leasing a brand new one was marginal. Our use case won’t see the car travel more than 60 miles in a day and always charge at home - so the other issues raised on this thread don’t factor into the decision.
This is only the second time I’ve leased a car. All my others were paid for in cash (or company cars) and the other 3 cars in our household still are.
Had we gone for the petrol equivalent it would have been a 2/3 year old purchase.
survivalist said:
The pain isn’t over yet though, as the manufacturers still have the ZEV regulations to contend with.
If they restrict supply of ICE vehicles (as suggested earlier in this thread) they risk making ICE residuals even stronger - it becomes a vicious circle.
Or they keep dropping the price of their BEV offering, further damaging BEV residuals.
Same result either way.
One option would be to move to more of a ‘permanent’ lease model, where the manufacturers take the car back after the initial lease, but then offer it at a cheaper price to the second ‘owner’ as it’s a used vehicle. Downside is that they’d have to offer extended warranty for the period if the second lease.
That’s also assuming that this takes enough risk away from the second ‘owner’ that it appeals to them over the equivalent ICE offering.
We ended up leasing a BEV for Mrs S because, even after a 30% discount off list for a new one, I still think it’ll work out cheaper than buying and trading/selling after 3 years.
Looked at buying an even cheaper 2 year old one, but once you factor in extended warranty and a set of new tyres the cost difference compared to leasing a brand new one was marginal. Our use case won’t see the car travel more than 60 miles in a day and always charge at home - so the other issues raised on this thread don’t factor into the decision.
This is only the second time I’ve leased a car. All my others were paid for in cash (or company cars) and the other 3 cars in our household still are.
Had we gone for the petrol equivalent it would have been a 2/3 year old purchase.
Yup. The reality is that EVs just require their own algo for pricing the loan, which they learned the hard way. Nearly all new sales are financed in a way where the lender wears the risk so to use a technical term of my industry, 'fIf they restrict supply of ICE vehicles (as suggested earlier in this thread) they risk making ICE residuals even stronger - it becomes a vicious circle.
Or they keep dropping the price of their BEV offering, further damaging BEV residuals.
Same result either way.
One option would be to move to more of a ‘permanent’ lease model, where the manufacturers take the car back after the initial lease, but then offer it at a cheaper price to the second ‘owner’ as it’s a used vehicle. Downside is that they’d have to offer extended warranty for the period if the second lease.
That’s also assuming that this takes enough risk away from the second ‘owner’ that it appeals to them over the equivalent ICE offering.
We ended up leasing a BEV for Mrs S because, even after a 30% discount off list for a new one, I still think it’ll work out cheaper than buying and trading/selling after 3 years.
Looked at buying an even cheaper 2 year old one, but once you factor in extended warranty and a set of new tyres the cost difference compared to leasing a brand new one was marginal. Our use case won’t see the car travel more than 60 miles in a day and always charge at home - so the other issues raised on this thread don’t factor into the decision.
This is only the second time I’ve leased a car. All my others were paid for in cash (or company cars) and the other 3 cars in our household still are.
Had we gone for the petrol equivalent it would have been a 2/3 year old purchase.
k 'em, they should have done their job better.'Finance fixes everything. And as you allude to, if the solution to get better prices for 3 yr old inventory is a lease or PCP then it'll just be done.
For the moment, it's a case of if you want new then lock in the downside risk via a lease or PCP and if you want used then screw the vendor as hard as they would willingly screw you, they're on the back foot so give them a kicking and buy smart. These opportunities don't come along every day.
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