Tesla unlikely to Survive (Vol. 3)
Discussion
What new cars have come to market recently (last 6 months) that have taken sales from Tesla in the last quarter or so?
VW group seem to have had various models for years
BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference. 8 guess the e an I 1 etc but again I think they’re all really small sellers or too new
Merc the same
MG, BYD etc.. doubt they’re taking sales from Tesla
Polestar aren’t big sellers
Renault, etc are all much smaller cars
VW group seem to have had various models for years
BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference. 8 guess the e an I 1 etc but again I think they’re all really small sellers or too new
Merc the same
MG, BYD etc.. doubt they’re taking sales from Tesla
Polestar aren’t big sellers
Renault, etc are all much smaller cars
Gone fishing said:
What new cars have come to market recently (last 6 months) that have taken sales from Tesla in the last quarter or so?
VW group seem to have had various models for years
BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference. 8 guess the e an I 1 etc but again I think they’re all really small sellers or too new
Merc the same
MG, BYD etc.. doubt they’re taking sales from Tesla
Polestar aren’t big sellers
Renault, etc are all much smaller cars
People are loving the Volvo EX30 just released. Could maybe even knock the MY of it's perch as UKs most sold EV this year.VW group seem to have had various models for years
BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference. 8 guess the e an I 1 etc but again I think they’re all really small sellers or too new
Merc the same
MG, BYD etc.. doubt they’re taking sales from Tesla
Polestar aren’t big sellers
Renault, etc are all much smaller cars
I’d also hope an aftermarket develops. For instance, I’d love an old BMW i3 to run around in, but for my use the tiny batteries don’t offer good enough range, and the REX option seems mired in failure and cost.
If/when affordable battery upgrades turn up for the i3, I suspect their value will rise again - they’re otherwise a very impressive vehicle for their chosen design criteria.
If/when affordable battery upgrades turn up for the i3, I suspect their value will rise again - they’re otherwise a very impressive vehicle for their chosen design criteria.
TheRainMaker said:
skwdenyer said:
For instance, I’d love an old BMW i3 to run around in, but for my use the tiny batteries don’t offer good enough range,
Are you sure?Mine will do around 150 miles, which is more than enough to run around in if you have home charging.
My wife’s Peugeot 5008 gets significantly lower than 30 mpg in everyday use around here (vs 46 mpg in ideal conditions).Without battery degradation, an original base i3 would do perhaps 50-60 miles around here. That’s barely enough to get to the shops and back!
My point is that an i3 is otherwise a fantastic package. Really early examples are now just a few £k. Salvage 120Ah packs (if they can be retrofitted) can be had for just a few more £k. Imagine an aftermarket pack of, say, 150Ah or higher (equivalent to the smallest Tesla Model 3 pack ever offered), giving an WLTP range of as much as 250 miles. Such a combo could be less than £10k and be significantly future-proofed, no-rust CFRP chassis and all.
skwdenyer said:
Old i3s do from 80 miles range with a healthy battery in ideal conditions. I live in the Yorkshire Dales where toad conditions aren’t conducive to EV range My wife’s Peugeot 5008 gets significantly lower than 30 mpg in everyday use around here (vs 46 mpg in ideal conditions).
Without battery degradation, an original base i3 would do perhaps 50-60 miles around here. That’s barely enough to get to the shops and back!
My point is that an i3 is otherwise a fantastic package. Really early examples are now just a few £k. Salvage 120Ah packs (if they can be retrofitted) can be had for just a few more £k. Imagine an aftermarket pack of, say, 150Ah or higher (equivalent to the smallest Tesla Model 3 pack ever offered), giving an WLTP range of as much as 250 miles. Such a combo could be less than £10k and be significantly future-proofed, no-rust CFRP chassis and all.
You can get 120BEVs for 11k still with BMW battery warranty now with a range of 150+ miles, so there’s no need to imagine it. I think many would see the “as built” with warranty option worth the little bit extra. My wife’s Peugeot 5008 gets significantly lower than 30 mpg in everyday use around here (vs 46 mpg in ideal conditions).Without battery degradation, an original base i3 would do perhaps 50-60 miles around here. That’s barely enough to get to the shops and back!
My point is that an i3 is otherwise a fantastic package. Really early examples are now just a few £k. Salvage 120Ah packs (if they can be retrofitted) can be had for just a few more £k. Imagine an aftermarket pack of, say, 150Ah or higher (equivalent to the smallest Tesla Model 3 pack ever offered), giving an WLTP range of as much as 250 miles. Such a combo could be less than £10k and be significantly future-proofed, no-rust CFRP chassis and all.
Gone fishing said:
skwdenyer said:
Old i3s do from 80 miles range with a healthy battery in ideal conditions. I live in the Yorkshire Dales where toad conditions aren’t conducive to EV range My wife’s Peugeot 5008 gets significantly lower than 30 mpg in everyday use around here (vs 46 mpg in ideal conditions).
Without battery degradation, an original base i3 would do perhaps 50-60 miles around here. That’s barely enough to get to the shops and back!
My point is that an i3 is otherwise a fantastic package. Really early examples are now just a few £k. Salvage 120Ah packs (if they can be retrofitted) can be had for just a few more £k. Imagine an aftermarket pack of, say, 150Ah or higher (equivalent to the smallest Tesla Model 3 pack ever offered), giving an WLTP range of as much as 250 miles. Such a combo could be less than £10k and be significantly future-proofed, no-rust CFRP chassis and all.
You can get 120BEVs for 11k still with BMW battery warranty now with a range of 150+ miles, so there’s no need to imagine it. I think many would see the “as built” with warranty option worth the little bit extra. My wife’s Peugeot 5008 gets significantly lower than 30 mpg in everyday use around here (vs 46 mpg in ideal conditions).Without battery degradation, an original base i3 would do perhaps 50-60 miles around here. That’s barely enough to get to the shops and back!
My point is that an i3 is otherwise a fantastic package. Really early examples are now just a few £k. Salvage 120Ah packs (if they can be retrofitted) can be had for just a few more £k. Imagine an aftermarket pack of, say, 150Ah or higher (equivalent to the smallest Tesla Model 3 pack ever offered), giving an WLTP range of as much as 250 miles. Such a combo could be less than £10k and be significantly future-proofed, no-rust CFRP chassis and all.
I regularly drive from the Yorkshire Dales to London. Of course my use case is mine, but a well-maintained i3 with an aftermarket battery could be an excellent longer-term keeper. If Tesla did a car broadly similar in layout to the i3 today, produced using gigacastings and their own power tech, I suspect people would go "wow."skwdenyer said:
Agreed. But I'd like 250 miles I regularly drive from the Yorkshire Dales to London. Of course my use case is mine, but a well-maintained i3 with an aftermarket battery could be an excellent longer-term keeper. If Tesla did a car broadly similar in layout to the i3 today, produced using gigacastings and their own power tech, I suspect people would go "wow."
That's essentially what I would have guessed the model 2 might be, if I'd guessed a year ago before they seemed to lose interest in it. I regularly drive from the Yorkshire Dales to London. Of course my use case is mine, but a well-maintained i3 with an aftermarket battery could be an excellent longer-term keeper. If Tesla did a car broadly similar in layout to the i3 today, produced using gigacastings and their own power tech, I suspect people would go "wow."Maybe we're all being played and they actually have such a car on its way... Although if it is, they're doing a great job of convincing everyone it isn't.
Gone fishing said:
What new cars have come to market recently (last 6 months) that have taken sales from Tesla in the last quarter or so?
BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference.
Maybe for business. After 3yrs I'm just replacing my Tesla 3LR, I wanted the updated (highlander) but the lease cost has increased by 30%.BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference.
The BMW I5 40 was over £100 / m cheaper on a lease (with a couple of options)
WestyCarl said:
Gone fishing said:
What new cars have come to market recently (last 6 months) that have taken sales from Tesla in the last quarter or so?
BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference.
Maybe for business. After 3yrs I'm just replacing my Tesla 3LR, I wanted the updated (highlander) but the lease cost has increased by 30%.BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference.
The BMW I5 40 was over £100 / m cheaper on a lease (with a couple of options)
BMW are offering 4.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £850/mo + £32k balloon. Tesla are offering 5.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £534/mo + £21k balloon. Both over 48 months. So clearly it isn’t BMW padding the PCP numbers.
Leasing on a 1 + 48, say, seems to be giving similar numbers where I’m looking.
Out of interest, who was your lease through? That seems a huge difference.
skwdenyer said:
WestyCarl said:
Gone fishing said:
What new cars have come to market recently (last 6 months) that have taken sales from Tesla in the last quarter or so?
BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference.
Maybe for business. After 3yrs I'm just replacing my Tesla 3LR, I wanted the updated (highlander) but the lease cost has increased by 30%.BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference.
The BMW I5 40 was over £100 / m cheaper on a lease (with a couple of options)
BMW are offering 4.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £850/mo + £32k balloon. Tesla are offering 5.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £534/mo + £21k balloon. Both over 48 months. So clearly it isn’t BMW padding the PCP numbers.
Leasing on a 1 + 48, say, seems to be giving similar numbers where I’m looking.
Out of interest, who was your lease through? That seems a huge difference.
Lease deals change rapidly so it's hard to compare sometimes, but sign up to a few lease companies special offer emails and most days you'll get emails with some pretty surprising offers!
Tesla hit the lease deals fiercely with their model Y not that long ago, but that's changed now and BMW seem to be pushing the i5 and ix 40 hard last time I checked.
TheDeuce said:
skwdenyer said:
WestyCarl said:
Gone fishing said:
What new cars have come to market recently (last 6 months) that have taken sales from Tesla in the last quarter or so?
BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference.
Maybe for business. After 3yrs I'm just replacing my Tesla 3LR, I wanted the updated (highlander) but the lease cost has increased by 30%.BMW has the i5 as a new model but can’t see that making much difference.
The BMW I5 40 was over £100 / m cheaper on a lease (with a couple of options)
BMW are offering 4.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £850/mo + £32k balloon. Tesla are offering 5.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £534/mo + £21k balloon. Both over 48 months. So clearly it isn’t BMW padding the PCP numbers.
Leasing on a 1 + 48, say, seems to be giving similar numbers where I’m looking.
Out of interest, who was your lease through? That seems a huge difference.
Lease deals change rapidly so it's hard to compare sometimes, but sign up to a few lease companies special offer emails and most days you'll get emails with some pretty surprising offers!
Tesla hit the lease deals fiercely with their model Y not that long ago, but that's changed now and BMW seem to be pushing the i5 and ix 40 hard last time I checked.
skwdenyer said:
Presumably BMW are simply offering whopping discounts to the lease companies (or "referral fees" or somesuch to keep the headline purchase price high)?
No, actually the purchase price of many European EV's are inflated to in turn inflate (relatively) the lease prices whilst also making them seem a bargain compared to the RRP. I could say my i4 is a £75k car, but no one's paying that for one and my monthlies are about £550... Obviously far less than you'd think a £75k car would lease for..The reason the prices are inflated is because they know most of the cars currently goto company drivers who are saving nearly 40% BIK and some NIC so... They can inflate the prices. This always happens when the government(s) subsidise stuff, the suppliers putvup their prices to hoover up their share of the ££
The situation won't last, at some point (to meet their emissions targets and avoid fines) they all have to sell to private buyers and the pricing will need bringing back to reality. Pressure from the Chinese is also bringing some European and US prices down too.
TheDeuce said:
skwdenyer said:
Presumably BMW are simply offering whopping discounts to the lease companies (or "referral fees" or somesuch to keep the headline purchase price high)?
No, actually the purchase price of many European EV's are inflated to in turn inflate (relatively) the lease prices whilst also making them seem a bargain compared to the RRP. I could say my i4 is a £75k car, but no one's paying that for one and my monthlies are about £550... Obviously far less than you'd think a £75k car would lease for..The reason the prices are inflated is because they know most of the cars currently goto company drivers who are saving nearly 40% BIK and some NIC so... They can inflate the prices. This always happens when the government(s) subsidise stuff, the suppliers putvup their prices to hoover up their share of the ££
The situation won't last, at some point (to meet their emissions targets and avoid fines) they all have to sell to private buyers and the pricing will need bringing back to reality. Pressure from the Chinese is also bringing some European and US prices down too.
skwdenyer said:
Interesting. So a £70k i5 is £100/mo cheaper than a £50k Tesla model 3? Ouch.
BMW are offering 4.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £850/mo + £32k balloon. Tesla are offering 5.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £534/mo + £21k balloon. Both over 48 months. So clearly it isn’t BMW padding the PCP numbers.
Leasing on a 1 + 48, say, seems to be giving similar numbers where I’m looking.
Out of interest, who was your lease through? That seems a huge difference.
Both quoted through Alphabet (in March) on a std 3 + 36 lease.BMW are offering 4.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £850/mo + £32k balloon. Tesla are offering 5.9% APR finance. With £10k down that’s £534/mo + £21k balloon. Both over 48 months. So clearly it isn’t BMW padding the PCP numbers.
Leasing on a 1 + 48, say, seems to be giving similar numbers where I’m looking.
Out of interest, who was your lease through? That seems a huge difference.
They did confirm the BMW price was supported by the manufacturer that will likely end in April and the cost will increase (or maybe that was just a sales tactic)
Anyway, in Aug I'll have to survive away from the Tesla S/C network and try not to be confused with 2 screens and a myriad of buttons
skwdenyer said:
TheDeuce said:
skwdenyer said:
Presumably BMW are simply offering whopping discounts to the lease companies (or "referral fees" or somesuch to keep the headline purchase price high)?
No, actually the purchase price of many European EV's are inflated to in turn inflate (relatively) the lease prices whilst also making them seem a bargain compared to the RRP. I could say my i4 is a £75k car, but no one's paying that for one and my monthlies are about £550... Obviously far less than you'd think a £75k car would lease for..The reason the prices are inflated is because they know most of the cars currently goto company drivers who are saving nearly 40% BIK and some NIC so... They can inflate the prices. This always happens when the government(s) subsidise stuff, the suppliers putvup their prices to hoover up their share of the ££
The situation won't last, at some point (to meet their emissions targets and avoid fines) they all have to sell to private buyers and the pricing will need bringing back to reality. Pressure from the Chinese is also bringing some European and US prices down too.
We can't know without speaking to the civil service bean counters and analysts that advise the government - there will be logic to it based on data we can't see.
Anyway, it achieves the same, it gets the cars onto the roads. It's just that none company car drivers have to wait for the cars to be 2-3 years old to hit the used market as affordable offerings, and the company car drivers replace them with new models. With more companies and SS schemes themselves going EV only, the rate of uptake should increase too.
If say things today are about as 'on track' as the government here could have truly expected. Targets are there to set ambition, they're rarely met! It's actually the US that is really struggling to effect a realistic uptake of EV, but that was always going to be a very stubborn nut to crack.
Gone fishing said:
This is how a CEO gets his kicks, he tweeted this eatlier,. childish doesn't even start to describe it
Toyota were messing around with butt plug tech first: https://jalopnik.com/toyota-says-this-butt-plug-wi...It’s harder than ever to look out the window and see a Tesla on the drive. Musks latest rant seems to be if he doesn’t get 25% of Tesla (which is his 50b pay deal plus another massive slug of stock measured in 10’s of billions) he’ll take away AI inc FSD and the robot thing.
Firstly, that’s an attempt at blackmail
Secondly, a CEO is an employee.. whether many see Musk and Tesla are one and the same, Tesla own what’s been developed so far, it’s not for Musk to say he can just take them away, despite poaching staff from Tesla to another company he owns
Thirdly, if he is poaching staff, that’s clearly not in the best interests of shareholders, so he’s in breach of director obligations.
This is very close to imploding, especially if he doesn’t get his share bonus reinstated. And as a company, if he’s so intrinsic to the market cap they need to reflect in the fact he’s a ketamine taking, pot smoking, middle aged man and a stroke or heart attack away from being near worthless to the group.
Firstly, that’s an attempt at blackmail
Secondly, a CEO is an employee.. whether many see Musk and Tesla are one and the same, Tesla own what’s been developed so far, it’s not for Musk to say he can just take them away, despite poaching staff from Tesla to another company he owns
Thirdly, if he is poaching staff, that’s clearly not in the best interests of shareholders, so he’s in breach of director obligations.
This is very close to imploding, especially if he doesn’t get his share bonus reinstated. And as a company, if he’s so intrinsic to the market cap they need to reflect in the fact he’s a ketamine taking, pot smoking, middle aged man and a stroke or heart attack away from being near worthless to the group.
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