I predict a massive financial case next 5 years

[RSTurboPaul]

Panamax said:

AceRockatansky said:

I'm going to pull that back and diversify into property and precious metals.

Get ready to wave goodbye to your money.

Can you expand further on your thoughts?

[Panamax]

RSTurboPaul said:

Can you expand further on your thoughts?

This thread is based around prediction of a "massive financial crash". If and when such predictions turn out to be correct it's usually due to luck rather than insight. Most predictions are wrong because the real world future is not binary - i.e. if there are seven possible outcomes and you guess one of them you're likely to be wrong six times out of seven.

If there is a massive financial crash there's no reason to believe either property or precious metals will escape the mayhem.

As regards investing generally,

• Property - highly illiquid, highly taxed, tenant risk, concentration risk.
• Precious metals - trading experience? Timing? Where to keep them if physical? Intermediary risk if not physical? Zero income.

The general guidance for investors is typically to hold,

• A suitably diversified portfolio, in the context of
• Their risk appetite,
• Spending needs, and
• Tax situation.

[Ken_Code]

Panamax said:

This thread is based around prediction of a "massive financial crash". If and when such predictions turn out to be correct it's usually due to luck rather than insight. Most predictions are wrong because the real world future is not binary - i.e. if there are seven possible outcomes and you guess one of them you're likely to be wrong six times out of seven.

If there is a massive financial crash there's no reason to believe either property or precious metals will escape the mayhem.

As regards investing generally,

• Property - highly illiquid, highly taxed, tenant risk, concentration risk.
• Precious metals - trading experience? Timing? Where to keep them if physical? Intermediary risk if not physical? Zero income.

The general guidance for investors is typically to hold,

• A suitably diversified portfolio, in the context of
• Their risk appetite,
• Spending needs, and
• Tax situation.

It’s maybe worth me mentioning again what seems to be the most common strategy that the traders I work with have for their own money, which is…

Buy Vanguard LifeStrategy 100.

Then leave it alone.

[CraigNewmarket]

Ken_Code said:

Panamax said:

This thread is based around prediction of a "massive financial crash". If and when such predictions turn out to be correct it's usually due to luck rather than insight. Most predictions are wrong because the real world future is not binary - i.e. if there are seven possible outcomes and you guess one of them you're likely to be wrong six times out of seven.

If there is a massive financial crash there's no reason to believe either property or precious metals will escape the mayhem.

As regards investing generally,

• Property - highly illiquid, highly taxed, tenant risk, concentration risk.
• Precious metals - trading experience? Timing? Where to keep them if physical? Intermediary risk if not physical? Zero income.

The general guidance for investors is typically to hold,

• A suitably diversified portfolio, in the context of
• Their risk appetite,
• Spending needs, and
• Tax situation.

It’s maybe worth me mentioning again what seems to be the most common strategy that the traders I work with have for their own money, which is…

Buy Vanguard LifeStrategy 100.

Then leave it alone.

This one?

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/van...

[Mr Whippy]

AceRockatansky said:

Mr Whippy said:

I’m still unconvinced because as noted, the timeline looking forward always looks bleak, such is the outlook on a downward slope,

And hegemony always end. So you’re half the time over the hump so to speak.


The USA is ultimately buggered, but it might have 50yrs more in it… or 5. Who knows.

That is precisely the point. I have no idea, but it's obvious the deficit is unsustainable. I've been paying into my pension with AVC's, I'm going to pull that back and diversify into property and precious metals. Seems like a sensible thing to do and if the economy doesn't go pop and they work things out, all the better for me. If I have 5 years to diversify properly then that's good too. If it goes pop next week I'm screwed.

I’m unconvinced. Still.

If SHTF will a £100k of gold make it all ok?

Nope. Because despite now having a load of gold, chances are no one will want it in exchange for goods because it’s a dead end.
Unless everyone has some to trade with, who wants to take gold for food for example? Great I sold food I can universally trade, for gold coins… oh great. It’s about as much use as magic beans.

Gold’s true value is realised in a working economy.

I fear holding gold now for many isn’t a hedge, it’s the latest ‘get rich quick’ idea… if it all goes to crap I’ll make £££… but if it all goes to crap being rich will be largely irrelevant.

What do you want your £££ for? Buy a fancy car? A new kitchen?
Chances are you’ll be worrying about food supply and keeping heating on (think early covid uncertainty)

What will be relevant is having a good secure job, good community, friends, tools, yadda yadda.



IF the big crash is coming and USA goes tits up, it’ll likely mean war.
Gold will likely be banned for sale etc in the West. You won’t trade it with China or BRICS as they’ll be the enemy.



Honestly the best position to take right now if you see the current hegemony failing is to focus on your own lot.

Give YOURSELF security, as it’s near guaranteed, rather than relying on the financial system you’re equally hoping will fail to somehow then provide you a viable windfall to be rich!

[Ken_Code]

CraigNewmarket said:

This one?

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/van...

Yes. It’s an extremely diversified fund with very low fees.

There may be cheaper ones around now.

[Hustle_]

Ken_Code said:

CraigNewmarket said:

Ken_Code said:

It’s maybe worth me mentioning again what seems to be the most common strategy that the traders I work with have for their own money, which is…

Buy Vanguard LifeStrategy 100.

Then leave it alone.

This one?

https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/investments/van...

Yes. It’s an extremely diversified fund with very low fees.

There may be cheaper ones around now.

I’ve just changed from that one to ‘FTSE Global All Cap Index Fund’. The reason being, Lifestrategy is about 25% UK and Global All Cap is more proportionately distributed.

Of course it may be that now is a great time to be buying and holding UK stocks- it probably is..?

[Ken_Code]

Hustle_ said:

I’ve just changed from that one to ‘FTSE Global All Cap Index Fund’. The reason being, Lifestrategy is about 25% UK and Global All Cap is more proportionately distributed.

Of course it may be that now is a great time to be buying and holding UK stocks- it probably is..?

My wife’s just had to spend yesterday dealing with grumbles from the PM because her wealth management company is removing its overweight position in the UK.

[Hustle_]

To simplify that for me, I take it that your wife wants to remain more heavily weighted in UK?

[Ken_Code]

Hustle_ said:

To simplify that for me, I take it that your wife wants to remain more heavily weighted in UK?

Her company is moving to a global benchmark from a UK-heavy one, which is bringing political attention.

[Slow.Patrol]

I've been predicting a crash since 2021, having lived through two major recessions - late 80s and 2008.

I know I bang on about it, but ever since the mid 1980s, government have relied on the housing market to grow the economy. Basically, that and financial services are all we have.

I believe that Boris and the Conservatives saw the crash coming and after the stamp duty holiday, decided that immigration was the only option. So while pretending that they were addressing the public's concerns, just carried on encouraging immigration, including students and identified occupations.

Rishi has made some changes to restrict immigration, but we are still playing catch up. He knows he is not going to get in at the next election, so has no issue with lining up the UK so the economy tanks and it becomes Labour's problem.

I just hope that Starmer doesn't fall back on immigration again.

(I am also if the school of thought that GDP is a flawed measurement of economic growth and that growth cannot be infinite and not everyone benefits from strong growth. But that is a whole different discussion).

[Panamax]

Slow.Patrol said:

I am also if the school of thought that GDP is a flawed measurement of economic growth and that growth cannot be infinite and not everyone benefits from strong growth. But that is a whole different discussion.

Indeed it is. But nonetheless it's worth recognising that neither politics nor economics are sciences. They are just stuff made up by people, in which respect they depend upon "belief". So it's all pretty flimsy.

Regardless of that I think there are a couple of things that create growth under any political or economic system,

• A person doing work on a natural resource can add value to it, whether that's by digging coal out of the ground or turning a piece of wood into a chair.
• Two people working together (cooperating) can often achieve more than the combined output of two people working alone.

On my analysis the boom/bust cycle is just a symptom of human nature (principally the greed element) and doesn't indicate the system is fundamentally flawed. More people doing more cooperating will probably deliver more growth.

So everything's rosy in the garden? Well, not quite. The elephant in the room is runaway population growth.

[Caddyshack]

Slow.Patrol said:

I've been predicting a crash since 2021, having lived through two major recessions - late 80s and 2008.

I know I bang on about it, but ever since the mid 1980s, government have relied on the housing market to grow the economy. Basically, that and financial services are all we have.

I think that is just believing what you are being told.

We still manufacture, we provide excellent services other than financial services (legal as one example), we grow crops. Tourism. Retail. We export gas, we make a lot of generators for export. Transport and storage are strong areas right now.

[Phooey]

Ken_Code said:

It’s maybe worth me mentioning again what seems to be the most common strategy that the traders I work with have for their own money, which is…

Buy Vanguard LifeStrategy 100.

Then leave it alone.

Interesting. Any particular reason why VLS100 (with its 25% UK weight) and not a true global index (which most professionals recommend)? Am I guessing correctly that you/they want to underweight the US indices and overweight the UK ones..?

[Ken_Code]

Phooey said:

Interesting. Any particular reason why VLS100 (with its 25% UK weight) and not a true global index (which most professionals recommend)? Am I guessing correctly that you/they want to underweight the US indices and overweight the UK ones..?

Some of the purpose of investing is to ensure that if your home country becomes very rich that you’re not left behind, so being overweight in your home market is relatively normal.

[AceRockatansky]

Panamax said:

Slow.Patrol said:

I am also if the school of thought that GDP is a flawed measurement of economic growth and that growth cannot be infinite and not everyone benefits from strong growth. But that is a whole different discussion.

Indeed it is. But nonetheless it's worth recognising that neither politics nor economics are sciences. They are just stuff made up by people, in which respect they depend upon "belief". So it's all pretty flimsy.

Regardless of that I think there are a couple of things that create growth under any political or economic system,

• A person doing work on a natural resource can add value to it, whether that's by digging coal out of the ground or turning a piece of wood into a chair.
• Two people working together (cooperating) can often achieve more than the combined output of two people working alone.

On my analysis the boom/bust cycle is just a symptom of human nature (principally the greed element) and doesn't indicate the system is fundamentally flawed. More people doing more cooperating will probably deliver more growth.

So everything's rosy in the garden? Well, not quite. The elephant in the room is runaway population growth.

Population growth? We're in decline. And not a slow one either, infact it's going to pose some significant problems unless the robots get better at looking after old people.

[Ken_Code]

AceRockatansky said:

Population growth? We're in decline. And not a slow one either, infact it's going to pose some significant problems unless the robots get better at looking after old people.

What do you mean by “we” there?

The world definitely isn’t, and neither is the UK.

[Caddyshack]

AceRockatansky said:

Panamax said:

Slow.Patrol said:

I am also if the school of thought that GDP is a flawed measurement of economic growth and that growth cannot be infinite and not everyone benefits from strong growth. But that is a whole different discussion.

Indeed it is. But nonetheless it's worth recognising that neither politics nor economics are sciences. They are just stuff made up by people, in which respect they depend upon "belief". So it's all pretty flimsy.

Regardless of that I think there are a couple of things that create growth under any political or economic system,

• A person doing work on a natural resource can add value to it, whether that's by digging coal out of the ground or turning a piece of wood into a chair.
• Two people working together (cooperating) can often achieve more than the combined output of two people working alone.

On my analysis the boom/bust cycle is just a symptom of human nature (principally the greed element) and doesn't indicate the system is fundamentally flawed. More people doing more cooperating will probably deliver more growth.

So everything's rosy in the garden? Well, not quite. The elephant in the room is runaway population growth.

Population growth? We're in decline. And not a slow one either, infact it's going to pose some significant problems unless the robots get better at looking after old people.

We have had ludicrous population growth, it may be in decline in very recent years but since world war 1 and 2 the numbers have been huge.

The whole world does need a respite from the massive over population if the planet is to be able to heal and rebalance.

[AceRockatansky]

Ken_Code said:

AceRockatansky said:

Population growth? We're in decline. And not a slow one either, infact it's going to pose some significant problems unless the robots get better at looking after old people.

What do you mean by “we” there?

The world definitely isn’t, and neither is the UK.

I think you need to do some homework. By 2030 45% of women will be single between the ages of 25-45. The empowerment of women although great in some respects, is contributing to a lot of future cat lady's.

There are various other reasons too. South Korea is the lowest, followed by Japan and Italy I think, but Europe is not far behind.

This is an eye opener

https://youtu.be/A6s8QlIGanA?si=vWn1ZdcKGxRw2Kym

And this, 51:20 might open your eyes a bit with modern dating, Chris really lays it out with the tall girl problem.

https://youtu.be/K2tGt2XWd9Q?si=CAfnU2LfmDcFY2eQ

Lots of info out there. I don't think you need to worry about too many humans.

[Caddyshack]

AceRockatansky said:

Ken_Code said:

AceRockatansky said:

Population growth? We're in decline. And not a slow one either, infact it's going to pose some significant problems unless the robots get better at looking after old people.

What do you mean by “we” there?

The world definitely isn’t, and neither is the UK.

I think you need to do some homework. By 2030 45% of women will be single between the ages of 25-45. The empowerment of women although great in some respects, is contributing to a lot of future cat lady's.

There are various other reasons too. South Korea is the lowest, followed by Japan and Italy I think, but Europe is not far behind.

This is an eye opener

https://youtu.be/A6s8QlIGanA?si=vWn1ZdcKGxRw2Kym

And this, 51:20 might open your eyes a bit with modern dating, Chris really lays it out with the tall girl problem.

https://youtu.be/K2tGt2XWd9Q?si=CAfnU2LfmDcFY2eQ

Lots of info out there. I don't think you need to worry about too many humans.

That is a prediction of what will happen, not what had happened to now, look at the numbers from 1950 to 2020