World's largest offshore windfarm starts generating
Discussion
plfrench said:
I was just balancing out the low example with a high one (30min window as that’s how it’s recorded). It’s all about the averages though - over the last 12month period, over 30% of total UK electricity generation came from wind. That’s pretty useful and with the amount of offshore wind farm development in the pipeline that will only increase over the coming years and decades.
True, but keep walking in completely wrong direction and you’ll get there eventually, just wasted a hell of a lot of effort and energy for nothing. What's was the alternative? Solar is also unreliable, doesn't work at night, and difficult to install somewhere the NIMBYs wont complain; fossil fuels are out on environmental grounds; nuclear is stupendously expensive (more expensive than installing enough offshore wind and then relying on average wind production and using battery storage to match supply with demand)...
Unless we're willing to dedicate huge swathes of land to either solar or on-shore wind, offshore wind with storage is the best we have.
Unless we're willing to dedicate huge swathes of land to either solar or on-shore wind, offshore wind with storage is the best we have.
Essarell said:
plfrench said:
I was just balancing out the low example with a high one (30min window as that’s how it’s recorded). It’s all about the averages though - over the last 12month period, over 30% of total UK electricity generation came from wind. That’s pretty useful and with the amount of offshore wind farm development in the pipeline that will only increase over the coming years and decades.
True, but keep walking in completely wrong direction and you’ll get there eventually, just wasted a hell of a lot of effort and energy for nothing. kambites said:
What's was the alternative? Solar is also unreliable, doesn't work at night, and difficult to install somewhere the NIMBYs wont complain; fossil fuels are out on environmental grounds; nuclear is stupendously expensive (more expensive than installing enough offshore wind and then relying on average wind production and using battery storage to match supply with demand)...
Unless we're willing to dedicate huge swathes of land to either solar or on-shore wind, offshore wind with storage is the best we have.
As we can see wind isn’t the solution, data supports that conclusion, storage? We’d be looking at many. Many Twh’s of it, at least 2-3 weeks worth of current UK which is expected to increase to circa 60Gwh if we go EV and GSH / ASH pumps. Unless we're willing to dedicate huge swathes of land to either solar or on-shore wind, offshore wind with storage is the best we have.
Alternatives? What’s the rest of the world using? Coal & Gas. Why not use those resources to perfect new technologies? The US sells millions of tons of coal to China, we could do the same and use the income to improve our balance of payments deficit and update our crumbling infrastructure, all off the back of the Yen. Instead we’ve got the cart right in front of the horse and ours and much of Europes economy is going to pay very dearly for it.
Essarell said:
As we can see wind isn’t the solution, data supports that conclusion, storage? We’d be looking at many. Many Twh’s of it, at least 2-3 weeks worth of current UK which is expected to increase to circa 60Gwh if we go EV and GSH / ASH pumps.
Alternatives? What’s the rest of the world using? Coal & Gas. Why not use those resources to perfect new technologies? The US sells millions of tons of coal to China, we could do the same and use the income to improve our balance of payments deficit and update our crumbling infrastructure, all off the back of the Yen. Instead we’ve got the cart right in front of the horse and ours and much of Europes economy is going to pay very dearly for it.
Why would you want the UK to continue to be reliant on imported fuels we do not produce enough to be self sufficient?Alternatives? What’s the rest of the world using? Coal & Gas. Why not use those resources to perfect new technologies? The US sells millions of tons of coal to China, we could do the same and use the income to improve our balance of payments deficit and update our crumbling infrastructure, all off the back of the Yen. Instead we’ve got the cart right in front of the horse and ours and much of Europes economy is going to pay very dearly for it.
What will you do with the CO2 that emanates from these new coal and gas stations you want built? Do you really want many millions more migrants trying to move away from places that have become inhabitable?
With sufficient capacity in the wind and solar generation systems we will reduce our reliance on imported energy and the cost of these renewables is substantially less than the FF alternatives.
Nuclear will probably be needed as well.
Essarell said:
kambites said:
What's was the alternative? Solar is also unreliable, doesn't work at night, and difficult to install somewhere the NIMBYs wont complain; fossil fuels are out on environmental grounds; nuclear is stupendously expensive (more expensive than installing enough offshore wind and then relying on average wind production and using battery storage to match supply with demand)...
Unless we're willing to dedicate huge swathes of land to either solar or on-shore wind, offshore wind with storage is the best we have.
As we can see wind isn’t the solution, data supports that conclusion, storage? We’d be looking at many. Many Twh’s of it, at least 2-3 weeks worth of current UK which is expected to increase to circa 60Gwh if we go EV and GSH / ASH pumps. Unless we're willing to dedicate huge swathes of land to either solar or on-shore wind, offshore wind with storage is the best we have.
Alternatives? What’s the rest of the world using? Coal & Gas. Why not use those resources to perfect new technologies? The US sells millions of tons of coal to China, we could do the same and use the income to improve our balance of payments deficit and update our crumbling infrastructure, all off the back of the Yen. Instead we’ve got the cart right in front of the horse and ours and much of Europes economy is going to pay very dearly for it.
https://grid.iamkate.com/
Nomme de Plum said:
Why would you want the UK to continue to be reliant on imported fuels we do not produce enough to be self sufficient?
What will you do with the CO2 that emanates from these new coal and gas stations you want built? Do you really want many millions more migrants trying to move away from places that have become inhabitable?
With sufficient capacity in the wind and solar generation systems we will reduce our reliance on imported energy and the cost of these renewables is substantially less than the FF alternatives.
Nuclear will probably be needed as well.
The rest of the world doesn’t seem too concerned re Co2 emissions and as everyone knows we are a tiny proportion of emissions into the atmosphere. Yes we could lead by example but that’s nothing more than virtue signaling. What will you do with the CO2 that emanates from these new coal and gas stations you want built? Do you really want many millions more migrants trying to move away from places that have become inhabitable?
With sufficient capacity in the wind and solar generation systems we will reduce our reliance on imported energy and the cost of these renewables is substantially less than the FF alternatives.
Nuclear will probably be needed as well.
I have nothing against any new technology / energy source that takes us on a healthy and sustainable path to the future but let’s not waste decades on equipment that will be nothing more than expensive landfill.
Our current plan has us paying £160 Mwh, wind essentially off the grid and Solar doing zilch till end of March. The days of cheap power in the UK are done, the dash to renewables has done nothing more than increase our reliance on foreign fuel.
Migrants aren’t fleeing climate change, it’s genocide, domestic racism, war and the desire for a better life they’re on the run from.
plfrench said:
Not sure how the data supports that conclusion? This year we're on track to equal fossil fuel electricity generation with renewable for the first time. This is from a near standing start in the space of 11 years shown on the graph below. Why on earth would we want to wed ourselves to an increasingly expensive and inefficiency commodity when we have this huge opportunity for wealth generation?
https://grid.iamkate.com/
National Grid have demand increasing thru to 2050, I’ll tweet them the good news that they needn’t worry. https://grid.iamkate.com/
like all data sets. it says what you want it to say.
i see it as the opposite, probably because i'm fully behind 'stop burning stuff' and the transition away from what is essentially victorian technology/ reliance on shady regimes for fuel supply, despite the occasional overzealous approach by the frontmen.
i see it as the opposite, probably because i'm fully behind 'stop burning stuff' and the transition away from what is essentially victorian technology/ reliance on shady regimes for fuel supply, despite the occasional overzealous approach by the frontmen.
Essarell said:
plfrench said:
Not sure how the data supports that conclusion? This year we're on track to equal fossil fuel electricity generation with renewable for the first time. This is from a near standing start in the space of 11 years shown on the graph below. Why on earth would we want to wed ourselves to an increasingly expensive and inefficiency commodity when we have this huge opportunity for wealth generation?
https://grid.iamkate.com/
National Grid have demand increasing thru to 2050, I’ll tweet them the good news that they needn’t worry. https://grid.iamkate.com/
Where did you get wealth generation from?
Every forecast re the Green jobs revolution has been wildly exaggerated, Scotland predicted 28000 by 2021, they rustled up 3000 and I reckon a few of those were in the ill fated DR Scheme, Starmer predicts 1000000’s but from where? We already have a skills shortage and a workforce where 1 in 13 of the workforce would rather stay home on the Nat King than contribute to the economy, every forecast I’ve seen re renewables has been exaggerated.
It’s a great sound bite, Cheap, Clean & Reliable who wouldn’t want to sign up for that?
For example this new Dogger Bank proclaims it can power a city the size of Liverpool, that’s only true as long as 75% of them don’t want any power.
Every forecast re the Green jobs revolution has been wildly exaggerated, Scotland predicted 28000 by 2021, they rustled up 3000 and I reckon a few of those were in the ill fated DR Scheme, Starmer predicts 1000000’s but from where? We already have a skills shortage and a workforce where 1 in 13 of the workforce would rather stay home on the Nat King than contribute to the economy, every forecast I’ve seen re renewables has been exaggerated.
It’s a great sound bite, Cheap, Clean & Reliable who wouldn’t want to sign up for that?
For example this new Dogger Bank proclaims it can power a city the size of Liverpool, that’s only true as long as 75% of them don’t want any power.
Energy = money.
In the same way huge money is/ was generated through oil production, renewable generation will bring money to countries that can most effectively and efficiently produce in this next chapter.
We have a huge geographical advantage to sell energy to mainland Europe through the interconnects.
In the same way huge money is/ was generated through oil production, renewable generation will bring money to countries that can most effectively and efficiently produce in this next chapter.
We have a huge geographical advantage to sell energy to mainland Europe through the interconnects.
Hill92 said:
They have Contracts for Difference with indexed strike prices. If the market price is below the strike price, they recieve the difference from a levy on electricity suppliers. And if the market price is higher than the strike price they have to pay difference to suppliers instead.
For most of the past 2 years, they have been in net repayment due to high market prices. In other words electricity costs have been lower than they otherwise would be, to the tune of about £600 million.
There are projects under construction right now which only partially rely on CfDs with the rest of their energy sold through commercial PPAs and on merchant terms.
https://community.ionanalytics.com/how-moray-wests...
And there are now completed projects that are subsidy free.
https://windpowernl.com/2023/09/29/dutch-king-offi...
That's not the whole story, aiui.For most of the past 2 years, they have been in net repayment due to high market prices. In other words electricity costs have been lower than they otherwise would be, to the tune of about £600 million.
There are projects under construction right now which only partially rely on CfDs with the rest of their energy sold through commercial PPAs and on merchant terms.
https://community.ionanalytics.com/how-moray-wests...
And there are now completed projects that are subsidy free.
https://windpowernl.com/2023/09/29/dutch-king-offi...
Onshore wind farms (approx half of our capacity) are almost all under the Renewable Obligation Certificate system whereby they receive 1 ROC per MWh on top of the market price. ROCs are worth around £55 each which is substantial, relative to the typical market price.
A large part of offshore wind - around 40% - is also under the ROC system but the payment is 2 ROCs per MWh - c.£110/MWh on top of the market price.
Recent CfD prices attracted a lot of headlines as they were set very low, about £50 - 60/MWh, allowing for escalation from the 2012 base. However the projects which accepted those prices have not taken up their contracts, preferring to sell at market price (all quite legal; there's a provision in the contracts).
The latest auction round failed to attract any bids despite the price being set markedly higher.
Older CfD prices are quite a lot higher as the industry was not so far up the learning curve: the weighted average of operating CfDs is around £150/MWh, iirc.
In addition, wind projects can sell REGOs (Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin) which are bought by energy suppliers to offset periods - like today - when there's little renewable power available so they can still claim that their power is renewable. I don't know how much extra revenue this provides.
If such a thing exists, it would be interesting to see a complete analysis of all the wind projects giving capacity, output, whether CfD or ROC, present-day cost per MWh, etc. together with the weighted averages. That would give the full picture.
Overall the historic legacy of ROCs and the early CfDs mean that average wind costs will remain high until a very large volume of new, cheap capacity is brought online and the earlier projects are retired or re-powered.
I'm not expert in all of this so happy to be corrected.
Essarell said:
plfrench said:
I was just balancing out the low example with a high one (30min window as that’s how it’s recorded). It’s all about the averages though - over the last 12month period, over 30% of total UK electricity generation came from wind. That’s pretty useful and with the amount of offshore wind farm development in the pipeline that will only increase over the coming years and decades.
True, but keep walking in completely wrong direction and you’ll get there eventually, just wasted a hell of a lot of effort and energy for nothing. Essarell said:
For example this new Dogger Bank proclaims it can power a city the size of Liverpool, that’s only true as long as 75% of them don’t want any power.
The "power X many homes" stats is based on government guidance on capacity factor and domestic consumption.The turbines at DB will probably achieve a capacity factor of 40%, but combined with the near 200MWh (initially) it will achieve a greater delivery window and provide services that reduce the need for gas/diesel STOR and spinning thermal generators.
Essarell said:
Do wind farms (renewables) ever manage to produce their installed capacity? On paper we should easily be energy self sufficient but that’s not the reality.
They can and do.Edited by Essarell on Thursday 12th October 03:46
This page charts load duration curves, both for individual wind farms and the overall offshore fleet, to the end of May 2022. These charts show what percentage of time a given capacity factor or higher was achieved.
https://energynumbers.info/uk-offshore-wind-capaci...
But most of these wind farms are the older, smaller onshore ones. Moray East and Triton Knoll were still under construction. But if you look at Hornsea One and East Anglia One, they were delivering 90-95% of their installed capacity 20% of the time and at least 40-45% capacity 50% of the time.
And the m Hywind Scotland floating demonstrator site was out in front delivering >90% of capacity almost 30% of the time and >60% capacity half the time.
Hornsea One and EA1 used 7 MW turbines. We're now building with 14 MW turbines - larger and further offshore, where winds are stronger and more consistent.
And we're bring them to more diverse locations like the Celtic Sea, which significantly increase the available power at any given time.
Essarell said:
Alternatives? What’s the rest of the world using? Coal & Gas. Why not use those resources to perfect new technologies? The US sells millions of tons of coal to China, we could do the same and use the income to improve our balance of payments deficit and update our crumbling infrastructure, all off the back of the Yen. Instead we’ve got the cart right in front of the horse and ours and much of Europes economy is going to pay very dearly for it.
The same China that built 37 GW wind last year and added another 23 GW in just the first six months of this year? In addition to 87 GW solar in 2022 and 78 GW in H1 2023.Everyone is investing in wind and solar because they are now cheaper than existing, let alone new, coal capacity.
plfrench said:
Energy = money.
In the same way huge money is/ was generated through oil production, renewable generation will bring money to countries that can most effectively and efficiently produce in this next chapter.
We have a huge geographical advantage to sell energy to mainland Europe through the interconnects.
That one crops up quite a bit and has been widely discredited The SNP referred to “The Saudi Arabia” of wind every time Blackford launched his tirades at PMQ, it comes from flawed research dating back to the 90’s but still trotted out.In the same way huge money is/ was generated through oil production, renewable generation will bring money to countries that can most effectively and efficiently produce in this next chapter.
We have a huge geographical advantage to sell energy to mainland Europe through the interconnects.
To sell leftover energy we have to have some spare in the first place, so now not only are we going to have enough storage for the UK but also to sell all this lucrative electricity to the rest of Europe? Really? That’s fantasy economics.
I worked on my first wind farm 1997, West Coast of Scotland, same problem back then as it is now, the poor interconnectivity across these Isles wasn’t (and National Grid still acknowledges) in place. Sound familiar? That’s 26 years ago.
I believe (and apologies for bringing up this reference) that the cost of energy was one of the nails in HS2’s coffin, even some rail freight operators are ditching / off-loading their electric fleet and moving back to diesel. No worrying about CO2 emissions in that decision. Reality bites hard when the leccy bill hits the mat.
Running before we can walk and cashing our future generations cheques into unproven inefficient tech.
Essarell said:
That one crops up quite a bit and has been widely discredited The SNP referred to “The Saudi Arabia” of wind every time Blackford launched his tirades at PMQ, it comes from flawed research dating back to the 90’s but still trotted out.
To sell leftover energy we have to have some spare in the first place, so now not only are we going to have enough storage for the UK but also to sell all this lucrative electricity to the rest of Europe? Really? That’s fantasy economics.
I worked on my first wind farm 1997, West Coast of Scotland, same problem back then as it is now, the poor interconnectivity across these Isles wasn’t (and National Grid still acknowledges) in place. Sound familiar? That’s 26 years ago.
I believe (and apologies for bringing up this reference) that the cost of energy was one of the nails in HS2’s coffin, even some rail freight operators are ditching / off-loading their electric fleet and moving back to diesel. No worrying about CO2 emissions in that decision. Reality bites hard when the leccy bill hits the mat.
Running before we can walk and cashing our future generations cheques into unproven inefficient tech.
Ok, best do nothing then!To sell leftover energy we have to have some spare in the first place, so now not only are we going to have enough storage for the UK but also to sell all this lucrative electricity to the rest of Europe? Really? That’s fantasy economics.
I worked on my first wind farm 1997, West Coast of Scotland, same problem back then as it is now, the poor interconnectivity across these Isles wasn’t (and National Grid still acknowledges) in place. Sound familiar? That’s 26 years ago.
I believe (and apologies for bringing up this reference) that the cost of energy was one of the nails in HS2’s coffin, even some rail freight operators are ditching / off-loading their electric fleet and moving back to diesel. No worrying about CO2 emissions in that decision. Reality bites hard when the leccy bill hits the mat.
Running before we can walk and cashing our future generations cheques into unproven inefficient tech.
We already were a net exporter of electricity through the interconnects in 2022 to the tune of 0.5GW average over the year. That's 4.3TWh of energy sold. That year was a blip due to France having generation issues, but with the new interconnect to Germany underway it's bound to occur again in the next decade or so and become the norm longer term.
It's an interesting new chapter we're entering and we're very well placed as a nation to capitalise on it.
plfrench said:
Ok, best do nothing then!
We already were a net exporter of electricity through the interconnects in 2022 to the tune of 0.5GW average over the year. That's 4.3TWh of energy sold. That year was a blip due to France having generation issues, but with the new interconnect to Germany underway it's bound to occur again in the next decade or so and become the norm longer term.
It's an interesting new chapter we're entering and we're very well placed as a nation to capitalise on it.
Germany is an interesting case, as I understand it they have quite stringent emissions rules / limits coming in next year. Be fascinating to see how that pans out. We already were a net exporter of electricity through the interconnects in 2022 to the tune of 0.5GW average over the year. That's 4.3TWh of energy sold. That year was a blip due to France having generation issues, but with the new interconnect to Germany underway it's bound to occur again in the next decade or so and become the norm longer term.
It's an interesting new chapter we're entering and we're very well placed as a nation to capitalise on it.
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