Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

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Discussion

pingu393

7,859 posts

206 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
Cheib said:
The cluster ATACMS have 900 “bomblets”, there’s another version which has a unitary warhead alongside 300 “bomblets and then there’s a version with just a “big bang” unitary warhead. Not sure which are short range and which long range.

If Ukraine had enough of them to use them liberally for a few weeks you could imagine them making a massive dent in Russia’s capabilities.
It's the perfect weapon if UKR can identify the ruzzian forming-up positions in time.

There will be hundreds of them all in one location, just ripe for plugging.

Each UKR has to kill three ruzzians. This weapon helps keep up the average.

BikeBikeBIke

8,196 posts

116 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
pingu393 said:
It's the perfect weapon if UKR can identify the ruzzian forming-up positions in time.

There will be hundreds of them all in one location, just ripe for plugging.

Each UKR has to kill three ruzzians. This weapon helps keep up the average.
Also if Russia have to muster people many hundreds of KMs away and deliver them to the battlefield in one's and twos the desertion rate is going to increase dramatically because they're under less supervision and two guys are more likely to make a pact to do a runner than 200.

hidetheelephants

24,683 posts

194 months

Thursday 2nd May
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The surveillance drone also seems to have been able to loiter over the targets for an extended period, is this normal russian incompetence or a product of the ukrainians blowing st up?

Talksteer

4,911 posts

234 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
hidetheelephants said:
The surveillance drone also seems to have been able to loiter over the targets for an extended period, is this normal russian incompetence or a product of the ukrainians blowing st up?
One method which they use is to have drones as flying relays. This makes it very difficult to jam as they have line of sight with each other and can use directional radio links. With a chain of drones they can go a long way behind Russian lines.

If the furthest out drone gets hit then the closest one currently being used as a rely can move forward. We also don't see all the drone missions that didn't succeed. That drone was operating pretty high up so may not be audible or visible from the ground, it might be detectable on radar but potentially the Ukrainians have enough of them that the Russians would run out of missiles and/or expose their radar guided SAMs to GMLRS/ATCAMs fire.

The Russians might have detected it but the Ukrainians might also have dozens of other drones in the air, the air defence people may not have prompt coms with the people on the ground to warn them or have no idea where the prime targets on their side are (particularly if they are mobile). In this case they wouldn't be able to prioritize drones for attack on the basis of the targets they might be attacking.

J4CKO

41,680 posts

201 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
Wonder if that was one of the new batch, or the Ukrainins feeling like celebrating by using what they had left from the last lot as they know some more are on the way ?

Also, wonder how many were killed and maimed in that attack, on one hand its rather good, on the other, celebrating things like that is indicative of the utter horror of the situation that old has plunged the region/world into. I dont want to cheer when a load of young men get chopped to bits by cluster munitions and it makes me feel bad if I do as I imagine the until misery, phonecalls, distraught mothers and broken families that has caused.

All because some old dickbag wants to "get the band back together" ffs, its not happening is it ? Not in any meaningful way.

Say there is a settlement or they withdraw, are they going to go back and work on tooling up like fk for another go in 15 years ? Its like Russia has been posturing that they are the greatest for so long they believed it and cant get their heads around the fact they arent, and never were.

Imagine being that fking stupid that you have a demographic issue, you send all the young men off the get deaded, they need lovers, not fighters, when it ll is over those adverts for Russian brides will start again, and if tourism starts up again at some point you will get the pick of the women as Putin got all the blokes killed.

sisu

2,594 posts

174 months

Thursday 2nd May
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Putin celebrated record low unemployment this week of 2.2% and increasing wages. This is true, if you are running a business then they have increased wages for staff as there is a shortage of men to work triple shifts in military factories. The private sector they also have to increase wages to retain staff who are being offered a job where there is less risk in getting recruited. Maybe $2000/month is worth the risk for some to fight?
High interest rates, 25% in some cases make it harder to borrow, as well as higher taxes. But for some Russians this is a great time to make money.

But this idea that you get women to do all the jobs, or in Tadjanks lowering the minimum age to work in a mine to 14 only works up to a point. They aren't selling the tanks to another country so this war economy is bleeding Russia long term.

Jinx

11,403 posts

261 months

Thursday 2nd May
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sisu said:
Putin celebrated record low unemployment this week of 2.2% and increasing wages. This is true, if you are running a business then they have increased wages for staff as there is a shortage of men to work triple shifts in military factories. The private sector they also have to increase wages to retain staff who are being offered a job where there is less risk in getting recruited. Maybe $2000/month is worth the risk for some to fight?
High interest rates, 25% in some cases make it harder to borrow, as well as higher taxes. But for some Russians this is a great time to make money.

But this idea that you get women to do all the jobs, or in Tadjanks lowering the minimum age to work in a mine to 14 only works up to a point. They aren't selling the tanks to another country so this war economy is bleeding Russia long term.
Those €20 Billion a year the EU still spends on Russian LNG helps keep the Russian economy going.

Rumblestripe

2,982 posts

163 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
Jinx said:
Those €20 Billion a year the EU still spends on Russian LNG helps keep the Russian economy going.
If they did it might as they don't it won't.

Talksteer

4,911 posts

234 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
sisu said:
Putin celebrated record low unemployment this week of 2.2% and increasing wages. This is true, if you are running a business then they have increased wages for staff as there is a shortage of men to work triple shifts in military factories. The private sector they also have to increase wages to retain staff who are being offered a job where there is less risk in getting recruited. Maybe $2000/month is worth the risk for some to fight?
High interest rates, 25% in some cases make it harder to borrow, as well as higher taxes. But for some Russians this is a great time to make money.

But this idea that you get women to do all the jobs, or in Tadjanks lowering the minimum age to work in a mine to 14 only works up to a point. They aren't selling the tanks to another country so this war economy is bleeding Russia long term.
Putin is spinning this as good, in practice it is also being caused by a mass exodus of people and all the people killed and maimed in Ukraine

Digga

40,395 posts

284 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
Talksteer said:
sisu said:
Putin celebrated record low unemployment this week of 2.2% and increasing wages. This is true, if you are running a business then they have increased wages for staff as there is a shortage of men to work triple shifts in military factories. The private sector they also have to increase wages to retain staff who are being offered a job where there is less risk in getting recruited. Maybe $2000/month is worth the risk for some to fight?
High interest rates, 25% in some cases make it harder to borrow, as well as higher taxes. But for some Russians this is a great time to make money.

But this idea that you get women to do all the jobs, or in Tadjanks lowering the minimum age to work in a mine to 14 only works up to a point. They aren't selling the tanks to another country so this war economy is bleeding Russia long term.
Putin is spinning this as good, in practice it is also being caused by a mass exodus of people and all the people killed and maimed in Ukraine
It's indicative of how little progress Russia really made toward being a truly free-market economy.

blueST

4,406 posts

217 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
Slightly away from Ukraine, but indoubtedly connected. Why are "we" seemingly tolerating this kind of belligerent nonsense with the GPS signals?

BBC News - Russia accused of jamming GPS navigation - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cne900k4wvjo

Are things getting done behind scenes, or can nothing be done to knock it on the head?

sherbertdip

1,128 posts

120 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
sherbertdip said:
borcy said:
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/178568899872...

Atacms strike in Russian rear areas.
What that doesn't show is the 1st one that went "PHUT" , so 25% failure rate, wonder if it's because they're old stock?


Edited by sherbertdip on Wednesday 1st May 20:26
The full video clearly shows a large "phut" above ground level with black smoke some time prior to the cluster munitions arrival, that was no rocket body.

Jinx

11,403 posts

261 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
Rumblestripe said:
Jinx said:
Those €20 Billion a year the EU still spends on Russian LNG helps keep the Russian economy going.
If they did it might as they don't it won't.
https://www.ft.com/content/1e70ff72-52d8-46b6-a8f4...

TLDR "Overall, EU imports of the super-chilled gas were up 40 per cent between January and July this year compared with the same period in 2021, before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine."


eyebeebe

2,999 posts

234 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all

RichFN2

3,412 posts

180 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
J4CKO said:
Wonder if that was one of the new batch, or the Ukrainins feeling like celebrating by using what they had left from the last lot as they know some more are on the way ?

Also, wonder how many were killed and maimed in that attack
Someone counted on an image from the beginning of the video 116 people. Russia has been very quiet on the casualties but looking at how far the blast and cluster radius was, and the fact it was just a training ground so little to no body armour?

I reckon at least 50% killed if not more, and just everyone would have been injured.

A large cluster bomb is probably the most devastating weapon in this situation.

J4CKO

41,680 posts

201 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
RichFN2 said:
J4CKO said:
Wonder if that was one of the new batch, or the Ukrainins feeling like celebrating by using what they had left from the last lot as they know some more are on the way ?

Also, wonder how many were killed and maimed in that attack
Someone counted on an image from the beginning of the video 116 people. Russia has been very quiet on the casualties but looking at how far the blast and cluster radius was, and the fact it was just a training ground so little to no body armour?

I reckon at least 50% killed if not more, and just everyone would have been injured.

A large cluster bomb is probably the most devastating weapon in this situation.
Yeah, pure evil, saw footage of a tank that was hit by one, looked fine until you realise it was peppered with small homes showing daylight.

Don’t think body armour makes much difference if you are in the area, even if its stops a few bits of shrapnel, there are several hundred others that go everywhere and turn you into Swiss cheese.

Would imagine it’s pretty instant in a lot of cases, except for those the find unexploded ones down the line.



Hereward

4,200 posts

231 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
Rumblestripe said:
Jinx said:
Those €20 Billion a year the EU still spends on Russian LNG helps keep the Russian economy going.
If they did it might as they don't it won't.
Good news on that front:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-ga...

"MOSCOW, May 2 (Reuters) - Kremlin-owned gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) said on Thursday it plunged to a net loss of 629 billion roubles ($6.9 billion) in 2023, its first annual loss in more than 20 years, amid dwindling gas trade with Europe, once its main sales market.

The results highlight the dramatic decline of Gazprom, which since the collapse of the Soviet Union has been one of Russia's most powerful companies, often used as a leverage to solve disputes with its neighbours, such as Ukraine and Moldova."

borcy

3,031 posts

57 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1786049...


Macron doubles down on possible Fr troops to Ukr

SlimJim16v

5,708 posts

144 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
eyebeebe said:
Biden really has to back up his warning or pootin will be further enboldened. Macron is saying the right things.

RichFN2

3,412 posts

180 months

Thursday 2nd May
quotequote all
borcy said:
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1786049...


Macron doubles down on possible Fr troops to Ukr
If those quotes are true then that's a pretty ballsy move by Macron

On one hand standing up to Putin like no other president/prime minister/chancellor has so far and could be enough to help Ukraine win in this war.

On the other hand it greatly raises the risk of other countries getting drawn into this conflict. Donating hardware is one thing, sending troops in that could end up in a direct battle with Russian troops is about as extreme as it gets.

I'm on the fence for now.