I predict a massive financial case next 5 years
Discussion
Wilmslowboy said:
To profit from the next crash, you have to predict what causes the crash and also the likely response.
Exactly.And they’re not going to do what they did again with inflation vs interest rates, and the horrible mess all the helicopter money recently generated… I don’t think.
So good luck trying to front-run the unknown.
My advice picked up from elsewhere is ignore all of it and focus on your own lot.
Ken_Code said:
(although we have a bit of political risk incoming - its probably less than the US / Europe with rise o populist right wing parties
I don't have a problem with a politician that's popular. We just don't have any.It may have been a coincidence but when media hate-figure Trump was President, the markets did very well.
Ken_Code said:
Simpo Two said:
I don't have a problem with a politician that's popular. We just don't have any.
It may have been a coincidence but when media hate-figure Trump was President, the markets did very well.
I don’t think I wrote that quote. It may have been a coincidence but when media hate-figure Trump was President, the markets did very well.
The markets now are going to react more to whatever the CBs do, it will be indeed be coincidental that when the Fed start easing (probably by YE & into next year) and IF Trump wins it, risk markets will rally.
There will be a ginormous financial crash at some point soon. Firstly because one is due and secondly because government debts are getting out of control due to overspending and servicing the interest on that debt will start to become a problem.
Not sure what asset classes will be safest. Probably best to spread investments across property, quality shares, gold and cash so you can at least sit it out when it happens.
Not sure what asset classes will be safest. Probably best to spread investments across property, quality shares, gold and cash so you can at least sit it out when it happens.
OddCat said:
There will be a ginormous financial crash at some point soon. Firstly because one is due and secondly because government debts are getting out of control due to overspending and servicing the interest on that debt will start to become a problem.
Not sure what asset classes will be safest. Probably best to spread investments across property, quality shares, gold and cash so you can at least sit it out when it happens.
The Great Taking seems to be saying that all shares will get hoovered up by Big Finance if there is a monster crash, regardless of if one thinks one owns them.Not sure what asset classes will be safest. Probably best to spread investments across property, quality shares, gold and cash so you can at least sit it out when it happens.
Ken_Code said:
There is no “due.”
You’re expressing the “gambler’s fallacy”, the idea that past price movements predict future ones, but they don’t.
I'm not sure its "gamblers fallacy", but you are largely correct - its not "due". By historical observation there is a monumental explosion of debt in the system which carries massive risk - but that in itself doesn't mean the system will fail. It might be the system is now too big to fail - so it won't be allowed to. It is indeed like the house price collapse people are still waiting on (as someone else mentioned).You’re expressing the “gambler’s fallacy”, the idea that past price movements predict future ones, but they don’t.
Mind you, if people want some sleepless nights; this is the website for you:
https://www.usdebtclock.org/
It even has RoW (which is overstating the debt to gdp ratio's a bit due to calculation methods). The US national debt is increasing at around $1m a minute, which would be mind boggling a few years ago.
Its kinda funny that people think that gold, crypto or whatever magic will be a good hedge if that debt balloon bursts - you are in full and total society collapse. Although some of the dominating the stairs, German Malinois attack dog owning posters with a utility room full of 3 ply bog roll might emerge victorious.
Ken_Code said:
RSTurboPaul said:
The Great Taking seems to be saying that all shares will get hoovered up by Big Finance if there is a monster crash, regardless of if one thinks one owns them.
How is that possible?I tried to watch The Great Taking documentary, but find it somewhat baffling that a former hedge fund manager doesn't know what a bank is or does.
Some of what he is talking about is spinning up leverage and asset inflation, whilst that has massive impact on wealth inequality - I struggle to believe its a conspiracy of a few.
And if it is, surely its a tad subtle; so why would they swoop in and steal all the equity in a collapse? And if its not theft, but some form of asset collapse and hoover up; all of "Big Finance" are all acting in concert with Dodd Frank, Volcker, BASLE etc are just jokes?
Some of it is OK, but his conclusions are a bit at the fringe end. He's bought a farm, I bet he has a bunker; he's gone full prepper.
Scootersp said:
Ken_Code said:
How is that possible?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dk3AVceraTI20.30 starts to talk about 'ownership'
Interesting that he picks up on CCP / Central Counterparty risk - I'd not seen the doc, but I had previously mentioned that CCPs were storing up bigger risk than dispersed business. Maybe I need a farm. And a bunker. and toilet rolls.
Scootersp said:
It’s wrong. You can’t have your shares taken off you.Gassing Station | Finance | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff