Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

Author
Discussion

SlimJim16v

5,679 posts

144 months

Tuesday 23rd April
quotequote all
Digga said:
What is within grasp is a conflict so costly in wealth, demographics and infrastructure that the nation implodes and contracts. That goal is realistic, to a significant degree. Every month the war lasts moves Russia further down that cul de sac. It is now clear confiscated wealth is never going back to them.
This says they only have enough funds for 18 months and things will start turning to st around the end of the year.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1891401/russi...

Cheib

23,274 posts

176 months

Tuesday 23rd April
quotequote all
_Al_ said:
What’s bugging me is the end game. This $60bn and any European / western assistance isn’t going to destroy the Russian war machine.

It’s clear by now that Russia isn’t deterred by steep losses.
The $60bil effectively take the US contribution to the election in December. IF Biden wins and has control of Senate/Congress then that will open the taps again. Although let’s not forget whilst Biden has supported Ukraine things like ATACMS and Abrams would both have done a lot more damage if the Ukranians got them six months earlier.

Trump ? Who knows. He’s been pulling the strings behind the scenes on this vote….there was a renegotiated bill which I think got presented to Congress in Jan or Feb which took a couple of months to negotiate….Trump killed it stone dead in 24 hours. He’s given this $60 bil package the green light…who knows they he changed his mind.

king arthur

6,572 posts

262 months

Tuesday 23rd April
quotequote all
Sounds like they are getting long range ATACMS
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/178215544866...

Adam.

27,260 posts

255 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
Biggy Stardust said:
Adam. said:
Do you have some links to back this up?

Sounds hopelessly optimistic to me right now unfortunately.

How much is Russia now spending on military v Western contributions ? I read they are firing 10x shells than Ukraine so don’t see that improving beyond 5x even with the new US money
You mention their massive expenditure but can't see how that might be unsustainable? I don't think explanation will work with you.
I don’t mention massive expenditure at all, just that I read Russia production is on a war footing and they can churn out lots of (low quality) shells and weapons and they are receiving arms from China etc., and Ukraine are struggling with men and equipment supplies.

It was a genuine question and am hoping someone can corroborate the opposite, not sure why you responded with that attitude.

borcy

2,914 posts

57 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
Adam. said:
Biggy Stardust said:
Adam. said:
Do you have some links to back this up?

Sounds hopelessly optimistic to me right now unfortunately.

How much is Russia now spending on military v Western contributions ? I read they are firing 10x shells than Ukraine so don’t see that improving beyond 5x even with the new US money
You mention their massive expenditure but can't see how that might be unsustainable? I don't think explanation will work with you.
I don’t mention massive expenditure at all, just that I read Russia production is on a war footing and they can churn out lots of (low quality) shells and weapons and they are receiving arms from China etc., and Ukraine are struggling with men and equipment supplies.

It was a genuine question and am hoping someone can corroborate the opposite, not sure why you responded with that attitude.
I think the point being made is that the Russian economy on this footing isn't sustainable. In the sense of money to pay for it and the opportunity cost while they do.



They've something like 18-24 months of tanks left such is the rate that they are losing them.

https://youtu.be/0B_4M5dTHIU

Covert cabal's channel on yt covers it.


king arthur

6,572 posts

262 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all

Bluedot

3,596 posts

108 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
king arthur said:
Is that a Russian TV Programme ?
If so, they all appear to have looks of 'what the fk are we doing?' on their faces.

Adam.

27,260 posts

255 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
borcy said:
https://youtu.be/0B_4M5dTHIU

Covert cabal's channel on yt covers it.
Thank you

(Won’t Ukraine stocks run out at a similar or quicker time?)

simo1863

1,868 posts

129 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
Bluedot said:
Is that a Russian TV Programme ?
If so, they all appear to have looks of 'what the fk are we doing?' on their faces.
It's Russian state TV and well worth watching for its Bond Villian levels of batsttery. They often contradict themselves, its a great example of vranyo in action if you can stomach watching it.

There are a long list of prominent Russians that should hang for this war, Olga Skabeyeva and Solovyov among them.

borcy

2,914 posts

57 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
Adam. said:
borcy said:
https://youtu.be/0B_4M5dTHIU

Covert cabal's channel on yt covers it.
Thank you

(Won’t Ukraine stocks run out at a similar or quicker time?)
Their loss rate is far lower and they do have tanks coming from NATO, so probably not.


There's a few channels about russias economics issues but most are a bit breathless with the collapse guaranteed every week.


Wayoftheflower

1,328 posts

236 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
Adam. said:
borcy said:
https://youtu.be/0B_4M5dTHIU

Covert cabal's channel on yt covers it.
Thank you

(Won’t Ukraine stocks run out at a similar or quicker time?)
That sounds like a defence economics question, for which we should always reference probably the southern hemisphere's favourite defence economics youtuber, Perun.

America pouring shedloads into production capacity was his topic only two weeks ago.
https://youtu.be/CqjvTKFufuk?feature=shared

Europe spending on capacity from a year ago.
https://youtu.be/LKlIh_-U4bU?feature=shared

Artillery shortages on both sides.
https://youtu.be/EMEpxX7rS5I?feature=shared

moustachebandit

1,269 posts

144 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
king arthur said:
Sounds like they are getting their excuses in early for their new (and hopefully soon-to-fail) offensive near Chasiv Yar.

king arthur

6,572 posts

262 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
Another day, another Russian oil depot on fire
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/178298072475...

borcy

2,914 posts

57 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
Wayoftheflower said:
Adam. said:
borcy said:
https://youtu.be/0B_4M5dTHIU

Covert cabal's channel on yt covers it.
Thank you

(Won’t Ukraine stocks run out at a similar or quicker time?)
That sounds like a defence economics question, for which we should always reference probably the southern hemisphere's favourite defence economics youtuber, Perun.

America pouring shedloads into production capacity was his topic only two weeks ago.
https://youtu.be/CqjvTKFufuk?feature=shared

Europe spending on capacity from a year ago.
https://youtu.be/LKlIh_-U4bU?feature=shared

Artillery shortages on both sides.
https://youtu.be/EMEpxX7rS5I?feature=shared
I think might just be me but I can't listen to his voice. There's something about it that's quite annoying. Probably just me.

TriumphStag3.0V8

3,859 posts

82 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
king arthur said:
Another day, another Russian oil depot on fire
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/178298072475...
They really must ban smoking in the workplace in Russia, all these accidental fires must be costing a fortune.

borcy

2,914 posts

57 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all

TGCOTF-dewey

5,197 posts

56 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
borcy said:
Looks like UKR SF will be busy with their laser pointers in the next few months.

TheJimi

25,010 posts

244 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
borcy said:
Interesting.

With a max range of 30km, effective use of these would put the aircraft very much in range of Russian air defence, no?


RizzoTheRat

25,190 posts

193 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
Cheib said:
_Al_ said:
What’s bugging me is the end game. This $60bn and any European / western assistance isn’t going to destroy the Russian war machine.

It’s clear by now that Russia isn’t deterred by steep losses.
The $60bil effectively take the US contribution to the election in December. IF Biden wins and has control of Senate/Congress then that will open the taps again. Although let’s not forget whilst Biden has supported Ukraine things like ATACMS and Abrams would both have done a lot more damage if the Ukranians got them six months earlier.

Trump ? Who knows. He’s been pulling the strings behind the scenes on this vote….there was a renegotiated bill which I think got presented to Congress in Jan or Feb which took a couple of months to negotiate….Trump killed it stone dead in 24 hours. He’s given this $60 bil package the green light…who knows they he changed his mind.
Bear in mind most of that $60Bn will be spent in the US, employing Americans to make things to send to Ukraine. So there's a reasonable chance Trump would still support it if he gets in, although still a significant risk that he'd can it just because Biden did it.

Talksteer

4,885 posts

234 months

Wednesday 24th April
quotequote all
TheJimi said:
borcy said:
Interesting.

With a max range of 30km, effective use of these would put the aircraft very much in range of Russian air defence, no?
Fly low, pull up, release bomb, roll till slightly inverted, fire chaff and flares, pull stick back hard, watch out from rapid approach of ground. Your plane would be exposed for only a few seconds which is commensurate with most SAM systems reaction times (S400 is claimed to be less than 10 seconds)

If the SAM is 15km away it will then take <15 seconds for the missile to get to you, which isn't helped by the fact that you are pulling some serious g so it's aim point gets pulled around. By that time you are likely back below the radar horizon of the tracking radar. Most if not all of the Russian SAMs are some form of semi active guidance in which case you it won't be able to track you. IR guided missiles are unlikely to have the range to chase a jet aircraft at low level when fired at that range. Something like the British Army's CAAM which has a active radar with data link would most likely still be able to follow you over the horizon.

For extra fun have a friend fire a HARM missile at them.

The best method to stop such an attack is an interceptor with a long range air to air missile which can sit outside the effective range of Ukrainian air defence and drop those missiles on to unsuspecting aircraft that are flying low and slow. Having the F16 means that those interceptor aircraft will need to be pushed back and the aircraft dropping the weapons are more likely to be aware that they are being targeted.