Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

You can loft a Paveway.

So the Paveway is something that we’ll see once Ukraine has F-16’s ?! Almost sounds like there is some strategic planning going on here….rather than reactionary which is what a lot of the kit sent so far has been.

That will be the Russian propaganda giving those thoughts and feelings.

The Russians are burning through artillery and vehicles at rates vastly exceeding replacement. They have a large buffer from the inheritance of the CCCP but that is being run down.

Whereas EU new build artillery production is only just coming on line as is domestic production of materials in Ukraine. Towards the mid/late of 2024 Ukraine are likely to gain parity and then superiority in fires.

If we can avoid the orange monster in autumn then Ukraine will most probably win this. Ukraine and it's allies have economies about 20 times the size of Russia's, Russia is putting less than 10% of it's GDP into the conflict. We can collectively easily out spend them.

Furthermore each time Russia threatens and nothing happens the West realises that there is no great threat. In fact the threat of escalation is always greater to Russia as they are by far the weaker participant.

NATO jets could for example shoot down drones and cruise missiles over Ukraine as they have for Israel. What would the Russians do, shoot at them, most likely they'd accomplish very little the NATO planes would not amble unprotected through the engagement envelopes of Russian SAMs anyway. If they do engage then NATO jets could start shooting back in a limited way which would degrade their defences.

What other forms of escalation do they have, deniably attack our infrastructure, assassinate our politicians invade NATO?

At each level the consequences for themselves are worse both materially and in terms of humiliation. If they start attacking our infrastructure then maybe they can experience all of their oil infrastructure exploding over a 24 hour period, if they start assassinating our politicians it's a particularly bad idea to paraphrase their greatest/worst leader the death of one man is a tragedy the deaths of a million is a statistic. (Kashoggi is more of diplomatic issue than thousands of Yemenis)

As for invading NATO or other direct military actions if Russia had spare capacity they'd be using it on Ukraine. As a result they'd get to attack forces much larger and better equipped than Ukraine.

The Russians have everything to fear from every form of escalation, or fear of escalation is based on it ultimately resulting in an exchange of nuclear missiles. I would argue that it is the Russians regime who should feast that the most. The further up the chain they go the more likely that someone in the military industrial complex likes the thought of shooting pootin and a bit of military withdrawal more than they like the idea of being vaporised. The idea that being humiliated will make pootin press the button rather than surrender is for the birds, he'd discover that the button is connected to the firing action of a Makarov pistol.

With hindsight if we'd flown troops in at the start of 2022 and said you have no right to invade this country, we will fight you if you do, our forces are here at the request of the democratically elected government and you should be as afraid of escalating with us as we are with you we would all be in a better place.

This fact is hopefully not gone unnoticed by the government of China, the US and Taiwan.

A detailed analysis on the current state of the front line. https://global.espreso.tv/ukraine-war-map-war-live...

One very interesting aspect is the following -

"The real breakthrough, however, was the drone strike on the Konteyner strategic nuclear cover radar station in Kovylkino, Mordovia. The station provided calculation and control for air defense launchers located all over Russia, especially those concentrated near Moscow, which were supposed to repel enemy heavy ballistic missiles. Without this station, it is impossible to intercept ballistic missile attacks. We hope that the 8 explosions of Ukrainian drones were enough to guarantee a sufficient level of damage to the Konteyner."

A detailed analysis on the current state of the front line. https://global.espreso.tv/ukraine-war-map-war-live...

Good report. Ukraine not doing as bad as I thought and any gains the Russians are making are costing them dearly.
The first lot of gear from the Americans is due within hours.

Just to contradict my earlier post, I do read some news and the BBC are saying that some long range US missile have already arrived. In Crimea..

Good report. Ukraine not doing as bad as I thought and any gains the Russians are making are costing them dearly.
The first lot of gear from the Americans is due within hours.

…who knows they he changed his mind.