I predict a massive financial case next 5 years
Discussion
Ken_Code said:
AceRockatansky said:
Only on PH can someone post a graph to prove there is no decline, that shows a decline. If you post the rest of that graph we can all see the collapse.
Go on then, point out the part of the graph that shows a current decline in population, which you still seem to claim is already happening.This should be good.
Your graph already shows a decline in rate. Certainly nothing running away.
On the trajectory, the low side shows an obvious reduction in head count. Once this works through, it's a sharp collapse. Where it will stabilise is anyone's guess. I don't think it will wipe us out by any stretch, just get to a level.
AceRockatansky said:
You should watch Hans Rosling. He explains very clearly the effect of birth rates on population. It takes a few generations to work through, but you cant have more people in 50 years time when fewer were born 50 years ago. That's the collapse.
Your graph already shows a decline in rate. Certainly nothing running away.
On the trajectory, the low side shows an obvious reduction in head count. Once this works through, it's a sharp collapse. Where it will stabilise is anyone's guess. I don't think it will wipe us out by any stretch, just get to a level.
Yes, in 2080. You claimed that population is declining now.Your graph already shows a decline in rate. Certainly nothing running away.
On the trajectory, the low side shows an obvious reduction in head count. Once this works through, it's a sharp collapse. Where it will stabilise is anyone's guess. I don't think it will wipe us out by any stretch, just get to a level.
Do you genuinely not understand this?
Ken_Code said:
AceRockatansky said:
You should watch Hans Rosling. He explains very clearly the effect of birth rates on population. It takes a few generations to work through, but you cant have more people in 50 years time when fewer were born 50 years ago. That's the collapse.
Your graph already shows a decline in rate. Certainly nothing running away.
On the trajectory, the low side shows an obvious reduction in head count. Once this works through, it's a sharp collapse. Where it will stabilise is anyone's guess. I don't think it will wipe us out by any stretch, just get to a level.
Yes, in 2080. You claimed that population is declining now.Your graph already shows a decline in rate. Certainly nothing running away.
On the trajectory, the low side shows an obvious reduction in head count. Once this works through, it's a sharp collapse. Where it will stabilise is anyone's guess. I don't think it will wipe us out by any stretch, just get to a level.
Do you genuinely not understand this?
Caddyshack said:
Also, somewhat cherry picking the worst of that line...the middle would be what most people would look at and also look at the upper blue for a different take on it....Plus cherry picking the very end date.
If he’s not playing thick for fun then I feel very sorry for him.AceRockatansky said:
You should watch Hans Rosling. He explains very clearly the effect of birth rates on population. It takes a few generations to work through, but you cant have more people in 50 years time when fewer were born 50 years ago. That's the collapse.
The collapse is happening in the 1st world. Definitely not worldwide. Elon Musk who is the foremost alarmist in regards to population colapse has a tunnel vision fixed on the US in that regard. Many US citizens share that kind of view.
Immigration nowadays is more the unskilled worker typ.
NickZ24 said:
Mr Whippy said:
For all we know the human species might be gone in 25yrs.
Even a full nuclear war will not eliminate the entire human race. Pockets of human will survive and repopulate sooner than expected.
Look at Chernobyl. One think is pretty sure living in a capital city in Europe is not an advantage.
A comet hitting the planet (which do occur) could be game over for humanity as we know it… repopulating sooner than we know it isn’t a guaranteed outcome.
But the point was that projections on population are irrelevant over such time scales as unknown factors come heavily into play.
And the point from there is that projections shouldn’t form a basis for apathy or paths that don’t try resolve big issues.
We appear to be happy to just say our current financial system is as good as it gets, greed is good, it must continually be a systemic risk factor stymying our aspirations and stopping us genuinely investing in our futures… and that despite our economy and thus so far, our population, needing to grow to feed the debt based pyramid, we are happy to just let it all run because the vested interests of the few being stupidly wealthy trump all else.
f
k that.The idea our current political or economic systems, or ‘science’ have a set of viable solutions to address our issues is pure b
ks.They’re the cause of the issues… not the solutions.
Mr Whippy said:
Mass extinction events do occur and species do die off.
A comet hitting the planet (which do occur) could be game over for humanity as we know it… repopulating sooner than we know it isn’t a guaranteed outcome.
But the point was that projections on population are irrelevant over such time scales as unknown factors come heavily into play.
And the point from there is that projections shouldn’t form a basis for apathy or paths that don’t try resolve big issues.
We appear to be happy to just say our current financial system is as good as it gets, greed is good, it must continually be a systemic risk factor stymying our aspirations and stopping us genuinely investing in our futures… and that despite our economy and thus so far, our population, needing to grow to feed the debt based pyramid, we are happy to just let it all run because the vested interests of the few being stupidly wealthy trump all else.
fk that.
The idea our current political or economic systems, or ‘science’ have a set of viable solutions to address our issues is pure bks.
They’re the cause of the issues… not the solutions.
How is science the cause of our issues?A comet hitting the planet (which do occur) could be game over for humanity as we know it… repopulating sooner than we know it isn’t a guaranteed outcome.
But the point was that projections on population are irrelevant over such time scales as unknown factors come heavily into play.
And the point from there is that projections shouldn’t form a basis for apathy or paths that don’t try resolve big issues.
We appear to be happy to just say our current financial system is as good as it gets, greed is good, it must continually be a systemic risk factor stymying our aspirations and stopping us genuinely investing in our futures… and that despite our economy and thus so far, our population, needing to grow to feed the debt based pyramid, we are happy to just let it all run because the vested interests of the few being stupidly wealthy trump all else.
f
k that.The idea our current political or economic systems, or ‘science’ have a set of viable solutions to address our issues is pure b
ks.They’re the cause of the issues… not the solutions.
Hustle_ said:
Not pointing fingers but this population diversion is not relevant to the thread.
I want to hear more about the massive financial crash in the next five years!
Lebanon is an interesting 'live' case of what can happen during/post crisis, we hear little about this.I want to hear more about the massive financial crash in the next five years!
https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/lebanon/2024/...
"The stakes are high. For depositors, locked out of their savings, it will lay out the mechanisms of restitution. Except for some well-connected Lebanese, most have lost all their life savings. For the banks, it will determine which will survive and which will be forced into bankruptcy."
"This resistance to much-needed reforms, he explained, has been coming from the same coalition of politicians and bankers united in one aim – to deny the colossal financial losses."
“Bankers don’t want to declare bankruptcy, while politicians resort to populism to delay facing the harsh truth,” he said.
Mr Whippy said:
We appear to be happy to just say our current financial system is as good as it gets, greed is good, it must continually be a systemic risk factor stymying our aspirations and stopping us genuinely investing in our futures… and that despite our economy and thus so far, our population, needing to grow to feed the debt based pyramid, we are happy to just let it all run because the vested interests of the few being stupidly wealthy trump all else.
fk that.
The idea our current political or economic systems, or ‘science’ have a set of viable solutions to address our issues is pure bks.
They’re the cause of the issues… not the solutions.
Greed is only OK if not done by everyone. That in times of social media or social envy networks.f
k that.The idea our current political or economic systems, or ‘science’ have a set of viable solutions to address our issues is pure b
ks.They’re the cause of the issues… not the solutions.
Scientists are not the generally the cause, some scientist work like entrepreneurs, business people. Others are quite diligent.
The climate change is ongoing and its clear that the materials for continued growth are not there forever.
Mr Whippy said:
NickZ24 said:
Mr Whippy said:
For all we know the human species might be gone in 25yrs.
Even a full nuclear war will not eliminate the entire human race. Pockets of human will survive and repopulate sooner than expected.
We appear to be happy to just say our current financial system is as good as it gets, greed is good, it must continually be a systemic risk factor stymying our aspirations and stopping us genuinely investing in our futures… and that despite our economy and thus so far, our population, needing to grow to feed the debt based pyramid, we are happy to just let it all run because the vested interests of the few being stupidly wealthy trump all else.
… not the solutions.
I think greed is a human fault but we also seem to want to better our standard of living...that was great to get us out of caves and to have basic medical etc but I do think we advanced way beyond what an Ape really needed long ago and we are not all that happy because of it. We often live too long for our initial design.
NickZ24 said:
its clear that the materials for continued growth are not there forever.
I'm not convinced. People thought coal was going to run out, then they thought oil was going to run out and so on and so forth.What will sort the men from the boys is if/when the food starts to run out. It's already completely insane IMO that car fuel is being made out of food. Brazil is the biggest producer of ethanol for petrol,
"Total Brazilian ethanol production for 2022 was estimated at 32 billion litres, an increase of six percent relative to 2021 due to the increase in sugarcane production and the steady increase in corn ethanol production."
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: This thread is weird.
Are people basing their doom and gloom outlook on anything other than gut feels and reading tea leaves?
Whatever causes the next "massive financial case" almost certainly won't be what anyone thinks it will be.
100% agree on that.Are people basing their doom and gloom outlook on anything other than gut feels and reading tea leaves?
Whatever causes the next "massive financial case" almost certainly won't be what anyone thinks it will be.
I think YouTube experts have a lot to blame.
Panamax said:
I'm not convinced. People thought coal was going to run out, then they thought oil was going to run out and so on and so forth.
Faith is part of the church, don't believe try to know. Helium running out:
https://science.howstuffworks.com/science-vs-myth/...
Silver, Copper, Gold, Fish etc..
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-muc...
Even so oil had its peak, new oil is discovered, a little deeper but still its not endless.
Caddyshack said:
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: This thread is weird.
Are people basing their doom and gloom outlook on anything other than gut feels and reading tea leaves?
Whatever causes the next "massive financial case" almost certainly won't be what anyone thinks it will be.
100% agree on that.Are people basing their doom and gloom outlook on anything other than gut feels and reading tea leaves?
Whatever causes the next "massive financial case" almost certainly won't be what anyone thinks it will be.
I think YouTube experts have a lot to blame.
Debt to GDP %'s increasing (past previously thought of "alarm bells" levels)
Deficit spending, government debt through the roof (adding to the above - US 1 trillion debt per 100 days)
Personal debt higher than ever
All this going on with generally good employment and economic conditions
So lower capacity/headroom for bad times.
Housing market slowing with higher interest rates
Fastest rate of hikes ever to quell inflation
Zombie companies under pressure on loan refinancing
Some commercial property struggling
A few Bank failures (possible more linked to the above commercial property issues)
Depositors made good generally more fed/government intervention needed to stop any 'events'
Geo political issues, potentially more required spending, possible lack of global co-operation to fix another 2008?
Did 2008 get fixed really? 15 years ago, US debt went from 9-12 Trillion from 2007 to 2009 so 3 trillion effect in the period of the GFC, and currently it's adding at a rate of 3 Trillion a year, with no crisis, just gut feels and tea leaves?
What are your lists for why your tea leaves and gut feels are it's all fine and better than the doom mongers think? What current indicators/observations lead you to think more optimistically?
Scootersp said:
Caddyshack said:
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: This thread is weird.
Are people basing their doom and gloom outlook on anything other than gut feels and reading tea leaves?
Whatever causes the next "massive financial case" almost certainly won't be what anyone thinks it will be.
100% agree on that.Are people basing their doom and gloom outlook on anything other than gut feels and reading tea leaves?
Whatever causes the next "massive financial case" almost certainly won't be what anyone thinks it will be.
I think YouTube experts have a lot to blame.
Debt to GDP %'s increasing (past previously thought of "alarm bells" levels)
Deficit spending, government debt through the roof (adding to the above - US 1 trillion debt per 100 days)
Personal debt higher than ever
All this going on with generally good employment and economic conditions
So lower capacity/headroom for bad times.
Housing market slowing with higher interest rates
Fastest rate of hikes ever to quell inflation
Zombie companies under pressure on loan refinancing
Some commercial property struggling
A few Bank failures (possible more linked to the above commercial property issues)
Depositors made good generally more fed/government intervention needed to stop any 'events'
Geo political issues, potentially more required spending, possible lack of global co-operation to fix another 2008?
Did 2008 get fixed really? 15 years ago, US debt went from 9-12 Trillion from 2007 to 2009 so 3 trillion effect in the period of the GFC, and currently it's adding at a rate of 3 Trillion a year, with no crisis, just gut feels and tea leaves?
What are your lists for why your tea leaves and gut feels are it's all fine and better than the doom mongers think? What current indicators/observations lead you to think more optimistically?
The USA seems totally out of its depth but kept alive by sheer numbers of people consuming at a huge rate. There are some very deprived areas and much of what I see on TV looks to be stuck in 1970.
I don’t suppose we are too far behind as they sneeze and we catch the cold.
Caddyshack said:
I can see the above and do wonder if 2008 was just “papered over”. I think it’s just odd for someone to say “I predict a crash within 5 yrs” and at the same time ask what they can do to make money from it….if you have the knowledge to actually predict a crash within 5 yrs you should also know the answer to the second part.
The USA seems totally out of its depth but kept alive by sheer numbers of people consuming at a huge rate. There are some very deprived areas and much of what I see on TV looks to be stuck in 1970.
I don’t suppose we are too far behind as they sneeze and we catch the cold.
Perhaps papered over, perhaps lessons not learned or learned but quickly forgotten?The USA seems totally out of its depth but kept alive by sheer numbers of people consuming at a huge rate. There are some very deprived areas and much of what I see on TV looks to be stuck in 1970.
I don’t suppose we are too far behind as they sneeze and we catch the cold.
I see it as a delicately poised situation, with 99% of the public never looking behind the presented frontage, hell barely any MP's/congress members know much about finances, besides the American's hit debt ceilings and just have to approve a higher one, what choice do they have?
Politic musical chairs/not on my watch etc? can they steer us through, perhaps another year (decade?) or two, but the maths and lack of actual solutions
seems to suggest to me at least that improvement regarding debt burdens is going to be tricky.
2008 was "it's alright, nothing to see" until very close to the crisis.
One wrong word from Powell at a FED meeting and carnage, within 5 years could be 5 months? You can try and predict things but you can't predict the reactions, the rules on deposit protection were overlooked with SVB leavers/strings pulled as they see fit to keep stability (reasonable but unpredictable), the issues come when they pull and don't get the desired effect.
I think you should have some real things as protection, not to barter in the streets with, but if there are real money/currency troubles, when the dust settles and they come up with new money/cbdc whatever that may protect you vs previous cash? Cash ISA's premium bonds are never going to be valued upwards, and could be significantly devalued in a crisis, Gold 'could be' revalued up the central banks have it so there is some inherent protection from having what the lever pullers have? Yes it's very doom and gloom and borderline crackpot in some eyes but you can see things play out in other times in history and even today in real time (my often quoted Lebanon situation).
Caddyshack said:
A conventional crash is not a huge problem for those who can sit tight and wait for the storm to pass, it’s generally the people who panic and bail out at the bottom who suffer or those who do not have the luxury of time.
It’s the sheep that get slaughtered once again.
So I guess for those who are retired but invested it is good to have (say) two years' worth of spending in cash savings. Ride out the storm and potentially buy on the dip. No?It’s the sheep that get slaughtered once again.
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