UKIP - The Future
Discussion
Today's stunning result in the Eastleigh by-election is a game changer for UKIP.
The centre-right parties got 54% of the vote, but the LibDems still managed to win the seat - despite a 14% fall in their support.
Dave Cameron is finished.
Conservatives will see the writing on the wall. Traditional Conservative voters are not very interested in Gay Marriage, Windmills, or Foreign Aid.
Conservative MP's must be bricking it tonight.
First out of the blocks is Daniel Hannan http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...
The next few months will be very interesting. I suspect that we will see a few of the "Old guard" come out of their bunkers.
Don
--
The centre-right parties got 54% of the vote, but the LibDems still managed to win the seat - despite a 14% fall in their support.
Dave Cameron is finished.
Conservatives will see the writing on the wall. Traditional Conservative voters are not very interested in Gay Marriage, Windmills, or Foreign Aid.
Conservative MP's must be bricking it tonight.
First out of the blocks is Daniel Hannan http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...
The next few months will be very interesting. I suspect that we will see a few of the "Old guard" come out of their bunkers.
Don
--
UKIP could develop into the party that Conservative used to be.
I think more people will now consider them a serious alternative to the main three.
I will not be voting Tory again. Farrage seems to have a far greater understanding of what's going on in the economy, and I generally share his views on Europe, but they do need to get rid of a certain dodgy element within the party before they are going to get real success. Maybe a few Tories defecting would help them along their way.
I think more people will now consider them a serious alternative to the main three.
I will not be voting Tory again. Farrage seems to have a far greater understanding of what's going on in the economy, and I generally share his views on Europe, but they do need to get rid of a certain dodgy element within the party before they are going to get real success. Maybe a few Tories defecting would help them along their way.
If they had won then it would have been a game changing event but they need to do a lot more to raise their profile and be a serious electoral proposition rather than just a protest party. There is a fruitcake element that they need to keep quiet to avoid negative headlines. If they got some MPs defecting to them then they could be taken seriously by a lot more people.
don4l said:
Today's stunning result in the Eastleigh by-election is a game changer for UKIP.
The centre-right parties got 54% of the vote, but the LibDems still managed to win the seat - despite a 14% fall in their support.
Dave Cameron is finished.
Conservatives will see the writing on the wall. Traditional Conservative voters are not very interested in Gay Marriage, Windmills, or Foreign Aid.
Conservative MP's must be bricking it tonight.
First out of the blocks is Daniel Hannan http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...
The next few months will be very interesting. I suspect that we will see a few of the "Old guard" come out of their bunkers.
Don
--
If we assume that the UKIP get half the swing they did in Eastleigh then labour will get in. There are already two conservative parties, both struggling to undermine their chance of getting voted in next election. All the UKIP is doing at the moment is splitting the right vote.The centre-right parties got 54% of the vote, but the LibDems still managed to win the seat - despite a 14% fall in their support.
Dave Cameron is finished.
Conservatives will see the writing on the wall. Traditional Conservative voters are not very interested in Gay Marriage, Windmills, or Foreign Aid.
Conservative MP's must be bricking it tonight.
First out of the blocks is Daniel Hannan http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...
The next few months will be very interesting. I suspect that we will see a few of the "Old guard" come out of their bunkers.
Don
--
Some labour will move to the UKIP for its racialist views and its little England concepts but not enough I think.
Last time, with a clear field and the most hated PM in living memory, the tories barely made it into power and needed the libdems to support them.
However, if continental elections tell us anything it is that some electorates, especially those who want something for nothing, will vote against austerity despite the requirement for it. The UKIP's spend, spend, spend policies will sound attractive so might well attract those who turn their backs on reality.
Hannan is hardly the class of the field when it comes to commentators. The bloke is an embarrassment.
Derek Smith said:
don4l said:
Today's stunning result in the Eastleigh by-election is a game changer for UKIP.
The centre-right parties got 54% of the vote, but the LibDems still managed to win the seat - despite a 14% fall in their support.
Dave Cameron is finished.
Conservatives will see the writing on the wall. Traditional Conservative voters are not very interested in Gay Marriage, Windmills, or Foreign Aid.
Conservative MP's must be bricking it tonight.
First out of the blocks is Daniel Hannan http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...
The next few months will be very interesting. I suspect that we will see a few of the "Old guard" come out of their bunkers.
Don
--
If we assume that the UKIP get half the swing they did in Eastleigh then labour will get in. There are already two conservative parties, both struggling to undermine their chance of getting voted in next election. All the UKIP is doing at the moment is splitting the right vote.The centre-right parties got 54% of the vote, but the LibDems still managed to win the seat - despite a 14% fall in their support.
Dave Cameron is finished.
Conservatives will see the writing on the wall. Traditional Conservative voters are not very interested in Gay Marriage, Windmills, or Foreign Aid.
Conservative MP's must be bricking it tonight.
First out of the blocks is Daniel Hannan http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100...
The next few months will be very interesting. I suspect that we will see a few of the "Old guard" come out of their bunkers.
Don
--
Some labour will move to the UKIP for its racialist views and its little England concepts but not enough I think.
Last time, with a clear field and the most hated PM in living memory, the tories barely made it into power and needed the libdems to support them.
However, if continental elections tell us anything it is that some electorates, especially those who want something for nothing, will vote against austerity despite the requirement for it. The UKIP's spend, spend, spend policies will sound attractive so might well attract those who turn their backs on reality.
Hannan is hardly the class of the field when it comes to commentators. The bloke is an embarrassment.
"Last time, with a clear field and the most hated PM in living memory, the tories barely made it into power and needed the libdems to support them."
Spot on. They even failed to right the boundaries misdoings, something that I thought was done and dusted.
The UK is f
ked. You read it here first.
Sorry. OUR UK is fked.
EFA
Spot on. They even failed to right the boundaries misdoings, something that I thought was done and dusted.
The UK is f
ked. You read it here first. Sorry. OUR UK is f
ked. EFA
Edited by Mojocvh on Friday 1st March 21:55
Steffan said:
I think that yours is the more balanced view. The reality of the electoral system in the UK means that the Conservatives are very unlikely to win the next election. Ed Milliband is unbelievably bad as leader and the odious Ed Balls continues to be odious. But the probability must be that the Labour party is likely to fare much better than any other party in the next election. Then God help us all.
Labour have been very circumspect with Milliband, only bringing him out with a prepared script and saying sage and clever things. These carefully rehearsed ad-libs are improving his image. Not only that, well probably mainly, they are keeping the stake in the heart of Harman. From having something to say about just about anything that occurs, she is now apparently only allowed to say things infrequently and on subjects where she can't turn it around to being all men's fault and if only a woman could be in that position.At the moment the public image machine of labour is superior to that of the tories, although it has a mountain to climb. It is clever of Milliband to do the old Blair thing of 'let's move on' but instead of making out nothing much had happened that was wrong, he's said that 'we got it wrong'. Contrition is an unusual ploy but it seems to be working. He's not asked about it much now, presumably because everyon knows he'll just say the same old things.
Further, my experience is that the electorate do not like infighting. Major might well have fought off the challenge of Blair if he'd had his party behind him, or even if they'd not behaved like, well, this kid from Blackpool, throwing tables and chairs about.
Pretenders to Cameron's throne might well think their best chance at getting the #1 slot is now and damn the chances in the upcoming election. It has happened before.
There are some excellent quality MPs in the background who could do an excellent job, certainly better than Cameron, but if it is Gove and Johnson then we will see all sorts of squabbles.
Harman! We could have Harman as deputy PM. Jeez.
Derek Smith said:
If we assume that the UKIP get half the swing they did in Eastleigh then labour will get in.
Labour would get in even without UKIP existing, the Tories are making sure of that.Derek Smith said:
All the UKIP is doing at the moment is splitting the right vote.
No, the Tories are doing that, by moving to the left and being an EU puppet party.Derek Smith said:
Some labour will move to the UKIP for its racialist views
So you're saying that labour and ukip voters are racist? Weird.Events, Dear Boy, Events.
Who could have predicted the surge of support for UKIP in all the recent by-elections? I lost count of the posts on this forum from nay-sayers - "UKIP is a wasted vote" ad infinitum. Should UKIP keep growing, we WILL win elections, and lets face it we have good practice runs with the Council elections in May.
I actually feel that the EU Commission will help UKIP more than any improved media attention from the odd by-election. Rumpoy is already causing a stir in the UK this week with his threats, though severely under-reported I feel.
Dan Hannan must be having the internal battle of his life, along with many other elected politicians, councillors, and vested interests, who must be going through toilet roll like there`s no tomorrow.
Who could have predicted the surge of support for UKIP in all the recent by-elections? I lost count of the posts on this forum from nay-sayers - "UKIP is a wasted vote" ad infinitum. Should UKIP keep growing, we WILL win elections, and lets face it we have good practice runs with the Council elections in May.
I actually feel that the EU Commission will help UKIP more than any improved media attention from the odd by-election. Rumpoy is already causing a stir in the UK this week with his threats, though severely under-reported I feel.
Dan Hannan must be having the internal battle of his life, along with many other elected politicians, councillors, and vested interests, who must be going through toilet roll like there`s no tomorrow.
Globs said:
Derek Smith said:
If we assume that the UKIP get half the swing they did in Eastleigh then labour will get in.
Labour would get in even without UKIP existing, the Tories are making sure of that.Derek Smith said:
All the UKIP is doing at the moment is splitting the right vote.
No, the Tories are doing that, by moving to the left and being an EU puppet party.Derek Smith said:
Some labour will move to the UKIP for its racialist views
So you're saying that labour and ukip voters are racist? Weird.Let by-elections be by-elections, as some wag no doubt said at some point.
They're an indication for sure, but they don't match with the result of a general election.
The numbers are a bit difficult to judge, but the vote share I think is fairly revealing. Both the Tories and Lib Dems lost 14% of vote share, give or take half a percent. Given that the two were pretty evenly matched, that means that the UKIP vote was more or less a 50/50 split of the two parties.
Labour increased their share by .22%, insignificant here except for the fact that it looks like none of their voters went to UKIP. That's a bit of a surprise to me.
If we replicated that nationwide we would probably see a lot of labour wins in lab/con and lab/lib marginal seats. Whether UKIP is going to want to see the only major party that isn't in some way shackled to the idea of rolling back Europe a bit (Liberals by association, admittedly) in power is an interesting question; Farage has the chance to decide who runs the Tory party, and I still think the country, after the next election if he wants to.
They're an indication for sure, but they don't match with the result of a general election.
The numbers are a bit difficult to judge, but the vote share I think is fairly revealing. Both the Tories and Lib Dems lost 14% of vote share, give or take half a percent. Given that the two were pretty evenly matched, that means that the UKIP vote was more or less a 50/50 split of the two parties.
Labour increased their share by .22%, insignificant here except for the fact that it looks like none of their voters went to UKIP. That's a bit of a surprise to me.
If we replicated that nationwide we would probably see a lot of labour wins in lab/con and lab/lib marginal seats. Whether UKIP is going to want to see the only major party that isn't in some way shackled to the idea of rolling back Europe a bit (Liberals by association, admittedly) in power is an interesting question; Farage has the chance to decide who runs the Tory party, and I still think the country, after the next election if he wants to.
greygoose said:
einsign said:
greygoose said:
There is a fruitcake element
Have you not seen some of the people in the other political parties, you think they are normal?Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff