Brexit - was it worth it? (Vol. 4)

Any stats will generally be disregarded as they cannot be trusted, especially if they don't fit with one's viewpoint.

Indeed, but what a miracle it would be (not) if they all turned up en masse and fully acknowledged that the whole thread is one huge waste of time and energy, instead agreeing that post counts are irrelevant and (re) moaning is pointless. If only PH didn’t exist all would be well.

That's rather the inference of "all is not what it seems", isn't it? If your contention was that the chart only shows goods, why not make that in the first place?

Er, the same is true of Belgium.

Belgium
Agriculture: 0.7%
Industry: 22.1%
Services: 77.2%

UK
Agriculture: 0.6%
Industry: 19.2%
Services: 80.2%

There's really not that big a difference in the structure of the Belgian and British economies when it comes to size of the service sector as a proportion of the wider economy.

There is/was a difference between Belgium/UK in respect of the size of their economies, too. What's your point here? This observation has no bearing on anything I've said.

My "clip" makes no change to "what you actually said" though, does it?

Neither the preceding line ("It doesn't change what I replied to.") nor the succeeding one ("That said, I agree we should be looking to export more. Along with massively improving productivity.") has any bearing on the bit I quoted, does it?

It seems like a bit of an odd contention, but if your intent wasn't to suggest they'd somehow been fudging the figures, then all good.

The answer does, in fact appear to be "yes"- at the moment at least. Belgium surpassed UK exports in both October and November 2022 (which are the two most recent dates I have data for). $51.2bn and $52.3bn, versus $47.1bn and $49.1bn respectively.

The OECD data is from 2020, isn't it? Even then, export value per capita was...more than 3.5x that of the UK.

The UK was still under EU trade rules through 2020.

If the point is "how Brexit has impacted overseas exports", then looking at data from before when "Brexit impacted overseas exports" (and in the midst of a global pandemic) probably doesn't make that much sense, does it?

I do, thanks.

That makes three.

Though, btw, economics modelling hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Not because I'm a better economics expert and hohohohohohohohohoho for that label, i just happen to know enough about modelling and methodology and so on.

Only sometimes! Entertaining as ever though and a little light relief.

Have you consumed any knowledge and understanding on research methodologies and modelling techniques?

Don't bother, just look at the risible, utterly miles away predictions from economists over the past two decades.

Whether it's one country's interest base rate, or global gdp, predictions are absolute horse manure. Too many unpredictable variables are in play, including remarkably daft policymaking from remarkably daft politicians, global pandemics, wars, etc, which impact on economics nationally and internationally, such events cannot be predicted.

That's before methodology comes in, shoving gravity modelling where it doesn't belong, for example, or excluding positive influences because you're employed by the gov't and the PM or Chancellor told you to do that.

With respect to anyone identifying themselves with such credulous acceptance, if people knew these failures keep repeating, what makes them forget, and if they don't know, what makes them so credulous as to be in awe when predictions are serialy duff? Rhetorical question.

The last 15 years of my career have involved modelling and economic research methodologies. I used to write the models and do the research as its fundamental to the investments that we seek from institutions and overseas investors. Nowadays I don't write the models or do the research but I do challenge those who do on the analysis they provide to me. Our research is specifically real estate related, but that is so tightly tied to economic performance, that it is very relevant.