Rishi Sunak - Prime Minister
Discussion
EddieSteadyGo said:
IMO the 'Reform' vote is soft, mainly consisting of disaffected Tories. I personally think a large portion of these people will hold their nose and vote Conservative at the General Election. I know that will sound arrogant or somewhat complacent to the Reform Ultras But the Conservatives haven't even started the negative campaigning / scare stories yet, and I think a chunk of those people will be susceptible to those tactics.
One other factor, putting aside their policies, I personally don't think Richard Tice is a good political leader. I don't think he even tries that hard to be persuasive, and he gives the impression of being a bit impatient and perhaps even short-tempered. The wild card though would be Farage standing. I honestly think that would solidify their vote massively.
Reform will be lucky to gain a single seat. Biggest problem is that they are spread too thin across the country and will only influence the final result rather than compete for it. Compare to, say, the Libdems, they have strongholds where they historically do well - their voter base is more concentrated and will thus pick up seats this GE.One other factor, putting aside their policies, I personally don't think Richard Tice is a good political leader. I don't think he even tries that hard to be persuasive, and he gives the impression of being a bit impatient and perhaps even short-tempered. The wild card though would be Farage standing. I honestly think that would solidify their vote massively.
Are Tice and Farage actually standing for election this time around? What constituencies are they rumoured to be contesting?
valiant said:
Reform will be lucky to gain a single seat. Biggest problem is that they are spread too thin across the country and will only influence the final result rather than compete for it. Compare to, say, the Libdems, they have strongholds where they historically do well - their voter base is more concentrated and will thus pick up seats this GE.
Are Tice and Farage actually standing for election this time around? What constituencies are they rumoured to be contesting?
I agree, Lib Dems show the way to build from the grass roots. And I don't see Reform getting a single seat either tbh. But the question is how much they split the 'right of centre' vote allowing Labour candidates to win. Are Tice and Farage actually standing for election this time around? What constituencies are they rumoured to be contesting?
Farage is being very coy about whether he is going to stand. If he does, it will be a nightmare for the Conservatives, because Farage will solidify the Reform vote, making it much more difficult to pick them off, and so wreck Tory prospects.
However, I suspect he won't stand. And it might sound far-fetched, but the main reason is that it is plausible that Farage could then emerge as a leader of the Conservative party some time after 2026....
Killboy said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
However, I suspect he won't stand. And it might sound far-fetched, but the main reason is that it is plausible that Farage could then emerge as a leader of the Conservative party some time after 2026....
That would be great news for Labour.So, if you then combine Farage's campaigning style, with the money of the Conservative Party machine, and the influence of the newspapers, who knows what might happen.
But I should add, I'm not predicting that will happen, there are far too many unknowns, but I just think it might be part of Farage's reasoning, if he chooses not to stand in the coming election.
EddieSteadyGo said:
valiant said:
Reform will be lucky to gain a single seat. Biggest problem is that they are spread too thin across the country and will only influence the final result rather than compete for it. Compare to, say, the Libdems, they have strongholds where they historically do well - their voter base is more concentrated and will thus pick up seats this GE.
Are Tice and Farage actually standing for election this time around? What constituencies are they rumoured to be contesting?
I agree, Lib Dems show the way to build from the grass roots. And I don't see Reform getting a single seat either tbh. But the question is how much they split the 'right of centre' vote allowing Labour candidates to win. Are Tice and Farage actually standing for election this time around? What constituencies are they rumoured to be contesting?
Farage is being very coy about whether he is going to stand. If he does, it will be a nightmare for the Conservatives, because Farage will solidify the Reform vote, making it much more difficult to pick them off, and so wreck Tory prospects.
However, I suspect he won't stand. And it might sound far-fetched, but the main reason is that it is plausible that Farage could then emerge as a leader of the Conservative party some time after 2026....
He's also seen from Boris that you can't just blag it.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Farage is being very coy about whether he is going to stand. If he does, it will be a nightmare for the Conservatives, because Farage will solidify the Reform vote, making it much more difficult to pick them off, and so wreck Tory prospects.
And yet, Farage is such an odious man.MC Bodge said:
...or he just reminded old people of their boorish, smoking, drinking, sexist Dad 70 years ago?
No, watch almost any interview or debate with him in. He always has an answer and it is always framed in the right way, and like all effective communication you don't notice how good it is at the time. I don't like him but I can't say he is a bad communicator. hidetheelephants said:
Everything is framed like it's still 2016, he is irrelevant to anyone who matters.
I think there is still appetite for it among the electorate. Immigration (legal and illegal) is extremely high and in the news again, we are in a rut economically, if Brexit was primarily a vote against immigration then the letter of the referendum was followed but not the root cause. To many of the Brexit voters who don't care about constitutional minutiae (represented by Lee Anderson), nothing has changed since 2016. I think the Reform vote is soft and will fall away when the election is called but they do poll in the teens because the same underlying issues are still bubbling away.
Mr Penguin said:
I think there is still appetite for it among the electorate. Immigration (legal and illegal) is extremely high and in the news again, we are in a rut economically, if Brexit was primarily a vote against immigration then the letter of the referendum was followed but not the root cause.
To many of the Brexit voters who don't care about constitutional minutiae (represented by Lee Anderson), nothing has changed since 2016. I think the Reform vote is soft and will fall away when the election is called but they do poll in the teens because the same underlying issues are still bubbling away.
Anyone who claims he is irrelevant to British politics is frankly ignorant. It's also boring when people don't have the capacity to separate their dislike for a politician from a discussion about that politician's broader influence.To many of the Brexit voters who don't care about constitutional minutiae (represented by Lee Anderson), nothing has changed since 2016. I think the Reform vote is soft and will fall away when the election is called but they do poll in the teens because the same underlying issues are still bubbling away.
hidetheelephants said:
Nothing he offers has any hope of resolving immigration and why would he bother given it's one of his few banker policies? He's a divisive rabble rouser with no growth potential.
Very few politicians have good answers to problems but it doesn't stop them from getting votes. EddieSteadyGo said:
IMO the 'Reform' vote is soft, mainly consisting of disaffected Tories. I personally think a large portion of these people will hold their nose and vote Conservative at the General Election. I know that will sound arrogant or somewhat complacent to the Reform Ultras But the Conservatives haven't even started the negative campaigning / scare stories yet, and I think a chunk of those people will be susceptible to those tactics.
One other factor, putting aside their policies, I personally don't think Richard Tice is a good political leader. I don't think he even tries that hard to be persuasive, and he gives the impression of being a bit impatient and perhaps even short-tempered. The wild card though would be Farage standing. I honestly think that would solidify their vote massively.
I would agree with that. One other factor, putting aside their policies, I personally don't think Richard Tice is a good political leader. I don't think he even tries that hard to be persuasive, and he gives the impression of being a bit impatient and perhaps even short-tempered. The wild card though would be Farage standing. I honestly think that would solidify their vote massively.
People are polled and many disaffected Tories say don't know/won't vote or say Reform as they regard the current Tories as not being Conservatives.
Tice isn't the leader who will deliver better results but Farage very likely is.
Rufus Stone said:
I'm not sure Farage is their savoir either. I wonder how many were swept up in his anti EU rhetoric and that leaving the EU would make their lives better, only to discover what a s
t show a UK government is when 100% in charge.
He is more popular among 2019 Tory voters than Sunakt show a UK government is when 100% in charge.https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48984-polit...
And we are not talking about being the "saviour" of anything. A good result for Reform would be 15%+ of the actual vote and Farage would likely give them that.
JagLover said:
He is more popular among 2019 Tory voters than Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48984-polit...
And we are not talking about being the "saviour" of anything. A good result for Reform would be 15%+ of the actual vote and Farage would likely give them that.
So is Boris. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48984-polit...
And we are not talking about being the "saviour" of anything. A good result for Reform would be 15%+ of the actual vote and Farage would likely give them that.
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