Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

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BikeBikeBIke

8,232 posts

116 months

Monday 13th May
quotequote all
king arthur said:
Bright Halo said:
I think we are about to see a classic battle strategy unfold in Kharkiv.
You create a vacuum that the enemy rushes in to fill.
You then pound the crap out of them from all sides.
I fear that what we are about to see is what the Russians always do, get close enough to use artillery and then gradually pound the city to rubble.
I'm afraid I think that too. frown

I've read pretty reliable people say Russia is unlikely to be able to capture it, but they can certainly reduce it to rubble.

Creating refugees is just part of the plan.

Talksteer

4,919 posts

234 months

Monday 13th May
quotequote all
king arthur said:
Bright Halo said:
I think we are about to see a classic battle strategy unfold in Kharkiv.
You create a vacuum that the enemy rushes in to fill.
You then pound the crap out of them from all sides.
I fear that what we are about to see is what the Russians always do, get close enough to use artillery and then gradually pound the city to rubble.
Kharkiv is a city of about a million people, there is no way the Russians have the resources to take it. Adivka and Bakmut were small towns by comparison.

TheJimi

25,044 posts

244 months

Monday 13th May
quotequote all
Unless Ukraine's allies pull something pretty bloody significant out of the hat, Ukraine is screwed, imo.

I can see Ukraine putting a shout out for allied boots on the ground (in whatever form that may take) before the end of the year. Whether that actually happens is another matter, but they'll definitely ask, imo.

Adam.

27,363 posts

255 months

Monday 13th May
quotequote all
Talksteer said:
Kharkiv is a city of about a million people, there is no way the Russians have the resources to take it. Adivka and Bakmut were small towns by comparison.
They don’t want to take it, just shell it to rubble

Alex Z

1,159 posts

77 months

Monday 13th May
quotequote all
Adam. said:
Talksteer said:
Kharkiv is a city of about a million people, there is no way the Russians have the resources to take it. Adivka and Bakmut were small towns by comparison.
They don’t want to take it, just shell it to rubble
Indeed. Look at pictures of Grozny after the battles and you’ll get the idea.

king arthur

6,602 posts

262 months

Monday 13th May
quotequote all
TheJimi said:
Unless Ukraine's allies pull something pretty bloody significant out of the hat, Ukraine is screwed, imo.

I can see Ukraine putting a shout out for allied boots on the ground (in whatever form that may take) before the end of the year. Whether that actually happens is another matter, but they'll definitely ask, imo.
I am starting to think that is what it's going to take to stop this. I think I saw one or two leaders saying that they have offered boots on the ground or are prepared to send but haven't been asked yet. Possibly one of the Baltics. It may well be not at the frontline of course.

hidetheelephants

24,815 posts

194 months

Monday 13th May
quotequote all
Alex Z said:
Adam. said:
Talksteer said:
Kharkiv is a city of about a million people, there is no way the Russians have the resources to take it. Adivka and Bakmut were small towns by comparison.
They don’t want to take it, just shell it to rubble
Indeed. Look at pictures of Grozny after the battles and you’ll get the idea.
Grozny is perhaps 10% of the size of Kharkiv, the russians spent nearly 4 months shelling it opposed by a few thousand poorly armed chechens with no air power and practically no artillery. I agree they want to, but they do not have the means.

isaldiri

18,740 posts

169 months

Monday 13th May
quotequote all
TheJimi said:
Unless Ukraine's allies pull something pretty bloody significant out of the hat, Ukraine is screwed, imo.

I can see Ukraine putting a shout out for allied boots on the ground (in whatever form that may take) before the end of the year. Whether that actually happens is another matter, but they'll definitely ask, imo.
Don't think it's quite that definitive tbh. Just as last year the optimism of ukraine pulling off a very successful counteroffensive seemed rather misplaced, some of the pessimism now also seems a bit overblown. Russia has an advantage for now but ukraine will get increasing amounts of western kit if russia continues their advance and as far as manpower is concerned, it might not be popular for zelensky it is also an option to enforce conscription more strictly if needed. It would not be that much of a surprise if by say mid summer, the conflict largely returns to the grim stalemate more or less along the lines per the east of the donbas as before.

borcy

3,063 posts

57 months

halo34

2,475 posts

200 months

Tuesday 14th May
quotequote all
borcy said:
Realistically though will that make a difference - can they risk them near the frontline to support the troops or is it more air cover?

BrettMRC

4,159 posts

161 months

Tuesday 14th May
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The F16's are a threat in being, they don't have to do anything beyond exist to tie up some Russian air defence items.

The F16's will also have access to a wider range of western ordnance/full compatability.

Oilchange

8,508 posts

261 months

Tuesday 14th May
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Heres hoping they can alarm the hell out of Russian air defences…

pinchmeimdreamin

9,977 posts

219 months

Tuesday 14th May
quotequote all
Hopefully some of the US supplies have arrived and Ukraine has a few Himars set up ready to flatten any artillery firing at Kharkiv

RichFN2

3,419 posts

180 months

Tuesday 14th May
quotequote all
borcy said:
Unfortunately an error in miscommunication and translation.

They will be delivered within months, and an announcement is likely to be next month with a more accurate timeframe.

BikeBikeBIke

8,232 posts

116 months

Tuesday 14th May
quotequote all
pinchmeimdreamin said:
Hopefully some of the US supplies have arrived and Ukraine has a few Himars set up ready to flatten any artillery firing at Kharkiv
Good point. In theory it should be possible to keep artillery far enough away to protect the city from everything except missiles and aircraft.

daveco

4,141 posts

208 months

Tuesday 14th May
quotequote all
king arthur said:
TheJimi said:
Unless Ukraine's allies pull something pretty bloody significant out of the hat, Ukraine is screwed, imo.

I can see Ukraine putting a shout out for allied boots on the ground (in whatever form that may take) before the end of the year. Whether that actually happens is another matter, but they'll definitely ask, imo.
I am starting to think that is what it's going to take to stop this. I think I saw one or two leaders saying that they have offered boots on the ground or are prepared to send but haven't been asked yet. Possibly one of the Baltics. It may well be not at the frontline of course.
I'd be thinking the exact opposite.

Russia are losing over 1,000 men a day and have gained little to no ground. Any ground they capture is lost nearly as swiftly.

It will keep going like this for the next year or two at the very most, and then Russia are done.

borcy

3,063 posts

57 months

Tuesday 14th May
quotequote all
RichFN2 said:
borcy said:
Unfortunately an error in miscommunication and translation.

They will be delivered within months, and an announcement is likely to be next month with a more accurate timeframe.
Quite possible, lots of countries with different languages involved.


paulw123

3,269 posts

191 months

Tuesday 14th May
quotequote all
Adam. said:
Talksteer said:
Kharkiv is a city of about a million people, there is no way the Russians have the resources to take it. Adivka and Bakmut were small towns by comparison.
They don’t want to take it, just shell it to rubble
It would be the second biggest city in the UK after London by population. Bigger than Birmingham.
West needs to pull out all the stops to stop nearly 1.4 million people coming under artillery fire from Russia.

bmwmike

7,004 posts

109 months

Tuesday 14th May
quotequote all
Am sure its been mentioned on here already but the netflix series "Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War" is well worth a watch. Filled in a lot of detail for me personally that i was hazy about, 1990's especially, and the collapse of the USSR, and events leading up to the current situation.

Digga

40,421 posts

284 months

Tuesday 14th May
quotequote all
Great piece on Putin's cronies. The argument is, don't target Putin, but his allies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFBmnd1UAqo
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