Is the turnaround in sight?
Discussion
Over the past twenty-four hours some financial commentators have been flirting with the idea that we are at the bottom of the recession and a recovery is about to start.
Obviously these guys (analyst at Schroeders on Newsnight yesterday and columnist in City A.M. this morning) have a vested interest in being bullish, but they cite a(n admittedly extremely short term in a volatile market) 200 point rise in the FTSE last week and a promising first quarter for several banks as indicators.
I was wondering what the varied people who mingle in this forum hold as their estimate for when the turnaround will begin. I believe the CBI state late summer 2010 at the earliest?
Obviously these guys (analyst at Schroeders on Newsnight yesterday and columnist in City A.M. this morning) have a vested interest in being bullish, but they cite a(n admittedly extremely short term in a volatile market) 200 point rise in the FTSE last week and a promising first quarter for several banks as indicators.
I was wondering what the varied people who mingle in this forum hold as their estimate for when the turnaround will begin. I believe the CBI state late summer 2010 at the earliest?
For the record, I don't consider myself to be anywhere near qualified to have even a half-assed attempt at predicting when the turnaround will come, but for those who say "Not for a long time yet", what are you basing your opinion on?
What factors are you looking for that would indicate that the turnaround has begun?
What factors are you looking for that would indicate that the turnaround has begun?
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