Speed cameras: Are we interested in evidence?

Speed cameras: Are we interested in evidence?

Author
Discussion

Dave Finney

Original Poster:

410 posts

147 months

Sunday 31st March
quotequote all
vonhosen said:
I don't think that's his point. so much (the figures).
I think the point is an illustration of the methodology & call for a science based approached on that methodology.
I'm just not sure that it will result in what he wants, because it isn't as narrow a consideration as that when it comes to speed limits & their enforcement.
You've got it spot on, vonhosen.
Road safety officials don't understand the system they're working on,
and that means more people seriously injured on our roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss

All my research really does, is point out that there is a problem,
and the problem is not speed cameras per se,
it's that the theories that support road safety policy are fundamentally flawed.

andrebar

437 posts

123 months

Sunday 31st March
quotequote all
Dave Finney said:
vonhosen said:
I don't think that's his point. so much (the figures).
I think the point is an illustration of the methodology & call for a science based approached on that methodology.
I'm just not sure that it will result in what he wants, because it isn't as narrow a consideration as that when it comes to speed limits & their enforcement.
You've got it spot on, vonhosen.
Road safety officials don't understand the system they're working on,
and that means more people seriously injured on our roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss

All my research really does, is point out that there is a problem,
and the problem is not speed cameras per se,
it's that the theories that support road safety policy are fundamentally flawed.
If I’m understanding it correctly the research points to suboptimal use of the cameras rather than a fundamentally flawed strategy. Or in other words more serious injuries could be prevented by making better use of the evidence available. Which is not the same thing as claiming that more injuries occur because the cameras are being used.



vonhosen

40,271 posts

218 months

Sunday 31st March
quotequote all
Dave Finney said:
vonhosen said:
I don't think that's his point. so much (the figures).
I think the point is an illustration of the methodology & call for a science based approached on that methodology.
I'm just not sure that it will result in what he wants, because it isn't as narrow a consideration as that when it comes to speed limits & their enforcement.
You've got it spot on, vonhosen.
Road safety officials don't understand the system they're working on,
and that means more people seriously injured on our roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss

All my research really does, is point out that there is a problem,
and the problem is not speed cameras per se,
it's that the theories that support road safety policy are fundamentally flawed.
But road safety policy isn't removed from politics & isn't likely to be. Because enforcement, particularly with speed limits, doesn't exist solely on road safety grounds. Sure It's a consideration within a wider policy, but it's just one part of it.

Dave Finney

Original Poster:

410 posts

147 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
vonhosen said:
But road safety policy isn't removed from politics & isn't likely to be. Because enforcement, particularly with speed limits, doesn't exist solely on road safety grounds. Sure It's a consideration within a wider policy, but it's just one part of it.
Yes, I agree.
If scientific trials were run,
other political considerations could also be incorporated into the trials (as well as road safety),
and the benefits (or otherwise) of each included factor would be proven. smile

Dave Finney

Original Poster:

410 posts

147 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
andrebar said:
If I’m understanding it correctly the research points to suboptimal use of the cameras rather than a fundamentally flawed strategy. Or in other words more serious injuries could be prevented by making better use of the evidence available. Which is not the same thing as claiming that more injuries occur because the cameras are being used.
Possibly.
The evidence does suggest that "more injuries occur because the cameras are being used".
IOW, if the cameras had not been used, there would have been fewer fatal and serious crashes.

You're right, this does point to "suboptimal use of the cameras",
IOW, there may be ways that cameras can be used that at least don't result in more fatal and serious crashes,
and could maybe even reduce them. smile

But that will never happen until the authorities recognise that there is a problem,
hence my video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss

heebeegeetee

28,850 posts

249 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
Dave Finney said:
1. IOW, there may be ways that cameras can be used that at least don't result in more fatal and serious crashes,
and could maybe even reduce them. smile

2. But that will never happen until the authorities recognise that there is a problem,
1. Such as hide the cameras?

2. Which I doubt any of us here on PH would ever want, and would possibly be very unpopular with the public?


vonhosen

40,271 posts

218 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
Dave Finney said:
andrebar said:
If I’m understanding it correctly the research points to suboptimal use of the cameras rather than a fundamentally flawed strategy. Or in other words more serious injuries could be prevented by making better use of the evidence available. Which is not the same thing as claiming that more injuries occur because the cameras are being used.
Possibly.
The evidence does suggest that "more injuries occur because the cameras are being used".
IOW, if the cameras had not been used, there would have been fewer fatal and serious crashes.

You're right, this does point to "suboptimal use of the cameras",
IOW, there may be ways that cameras can be used that at least don't result in more fatal and serious crashes,
and could maybe even reduce them. smile

But that will never happen until the authorities recognise that there is a problem,
hence my video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss
You mean like hiding/disguising them so that drivers can't see them or know their locations?
Be careful what you wish for.

Dave Finney

Original Poster:

410 posts

147 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
vonhosen said:
You mean like hiding/disguising them so that drivers can't see them or know their locations?
Be careful what you wish for.
Again, vonhosen, I agree that that is 1 possible solution to the problem.
But there are issues.
1) You're making the same fundamental error that the authorities are making,
. . You've jumped to conclusions, and are simply proposing policy based on opinions.
. . that's what got us into this mess in the 1st place!

2) It has been tried to some degree.
. . The 1st cameras were painted grey and often hidden behind signs, bridges and trees
. . and there were no camera apps to warn you either
. . The evidence shows an increase in fatal and serious crashes at those sites:
. . https://speedcamerareport.co.uk/09_fixed

We need to know who, when and why there are more fatal and serious crashes at the camera sites.
Until we have that, we cannot know what might solve the problem, without risking even more death and injury.

Dave Finney

Original Poster:

410 posts

147 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
heebeegeetee said:
1. Such as hide the cameras?

2. Which I doubt any of us here on PH would ever want, and would possibly be very unpopular with the public?
Possibly, but you have asked the question that I was asking in the title!
"Do the public support policies based on evidence?"

Suppose the public were told:
We are going to run hidden speed cameras in certain areas for 3 years within scientific trials.

If death and serious injuries are proven to be reduced, we may continue that policy.

But if death and serious injuries are proven to increase,
cameras will never be hidden again,
and ALL cameras will be required by law to be run within scientific trials.

Would the great British public support policies that are based on high-quality evidence? smile

vonhosen

40,271 posts

218 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
Dave Finney said:
vonhosen said:
You mean like hiding/disguising them so that drivers can't see them or know their locations?
Be careful what you wish for.
Again, vonhosen, I agree that that is 1 possible solution to the problem.
But there are issues.
1) You're making the same fundamental error that the authorities are making,
. . You've jumped to conclusions, and are simply proposing policy based on opinions.
. . that's what got us into this mess in the 1st place!
I'm not stating it as a fait accompli, just that it raises the possibility of that as a scientific trial.
If research shows that people behave like stupids when they see cameras (sudden emergency braking, or our wheelie motorcyclists) resulting in fatalities, then that is because they saw the camera & reacted adversely to it. If they are so disguised & moved so that it's not known where they are that won't happen. Of course something else might happen but we won't know until it's trialled & researched.
Presumably then you are calling for trials of them being used under deep cover to see if that helps?

Dave Finney said:
2) It has been tried to some degree.
. . The 1st cameras were painted grey and often hidden behind signs, bridges and trees
. . and there were no camera apps to warn you either
. . The evidence shows an increase in fatal and serious crashes at those sites:
. . https://speedcamerareport.co.uk/09_fixed
I'm talking about deep disguise, not just painting grey & not just fixed cameras.

Dave Finney said:
We need to know who, when and why there are more fatal and serious crashes at the camera sites.
Until we have that, we cannot know what might solve the problem, without risking even more death and injury.
Until they trial that they won't know if it helps eliminate stupid's behaviours at cameras sites.


Edited by vonhosen on Monday 1st April 17:19

vonhosen

40,271 posts

218 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
Dave Finney said:
heebeegeetee said:
1. Such as hide the cameras?

2. Which I doubt any of us here on PH would ever want, and would possibly be very unpopular with the public?
Possibly, but you have asked the question that I was asking in the title!
"Do the public support policies based on evidence?"

Suppose the public were told:
We are going to run hidden speed cameras in certain areas for 3 years within scientific trials.

If death and serious injuries are proven to be reduced, we may continue that policy.

But if death and serious injuries are proven to increase,
cameras will never be hidden again,
and ALL cameras will be required by law to be run within scientific trials.

Would the great British public support policies that are based on high-quality evidence? smile
On it's own (that is evidence in relation to deaths at speed camera sites), against a wider issue of speed limits & enforcement, I doubt it.
Also humans don't all deal with the world simply in terms of just data & evidence. How many people in this country (or indeed on this planet) believe in a God?

bigothunter

11,349 posts

61 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
vonhosen said:
On it's own (that is evidence in relation to deaths at speed camera sites), against a wider issue of speed limits & enforcement, I doubt it.
Also humans don't all deal with the world simply in terms of just data & evidence. How many people in this country (or indeed on this planet) believe in a God?
Agreed yes

I doubt whether the general public understand or care about safety policy based on data. Would require level of thought which they are incapable or unwilling to give. Next episode of Corrie is more appealing.

Propaganda and dogma have won the day. We all need to chant: Speed kills - Kill your speed; Speed cameras make the roads safe rolleyes

livinginasia

850 posts

111 months

Monday 1st April
quotequote all
Whether speed cameras increase or decrease the number of road deaths isn’t the issue, it’s just the excuse being used by the government that they make roads safer therefore they need to be used.

We all know the reason they exist is revenue collection. Same with LTNs, ULEZ, bus gates and all the other revenue raising cameras being installed to squeeze money out of the motorist.

It’s a great idea: using whatever statistics you like, the govt can claim they make roads safer / cleaner / quieter or whatever else they choose that day, stick up cameras and a few signs and watch the £££s roll in. Interesting article out this week showing Hammersmith & Fulham making a million pounds a month from fines from making a single road an LTN.

It’s all about the money, sadly.

Vipers

32,912 posts

229 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
livinginasia said:
Whether speed cameras increase or decrease the number of road deaths isn’t the issue, it’s just the excuse being used by the government that they make roads safer therefore they need to be used.

We all know the reason they exist is revenue collection. Same with LTNs, ULEZ, bus gates and all the other revenue raising cameras being installed to squeeze money out of the motorist.

It’s a great idea: using whatever statistics you like, the govt can claim they make roads safer / cleaner / quieter or whatever else they choose that day, stick up cameras and a few signs and watch the £££s roll in. Interesting article out this week showing Hammersmith & Fulham making a million pounds a month from fines from making a single road an LTN.

It’s all about the money, sadly.
Pay attention when driving, costs you nothing.

andrebar

437 posts

123 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
Dave Finney said:
Would the great British public support policies that are based on high-quality evidence? smile
I expect the vast majority place far greater importance on the quality of policy decision making (largely a matter of opinion) than that of the underlying evidence.



bigothunter

11,349 posts

61 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
andrebar said:
Dave Finney said:
Would the great British public support policies that are based on high-quality evidence? smile
I expect the vast majority place far greater importance on the quality of policy decision making (largely a matter of opinion) than that of the underlying evidence.
Opinion based on propaganda and dogma. Can't help feeling we get the restrictions that we deserve.

Dave Finney

Original Poster:

410 posts

147 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
vonhosen said:
If research shows that people behave like stupids when they see cameras (sudden emergency braking, or our wheelie motorcyclists) resulting in fatalities, then that is because they saw the camera & reacted adversely to it.
The research only shows that there are increases, it does not show who or why..

You're still jumping to the conclusion that it is only "stupids" crashing at camera sites,
but it could be that otherwise safe and responsible people are also increasing the crash rate at camera sites.

Eg;
there is 1 FSC* every 3 years at camera sites**.
also around 8% of FSC involve a vehicle speeding***.

So cameras might be able to prevent 1 FSC every 37 years,
but, during that time, they may be changing the behaviour of most (nearly all?) drivers/riders,
even those who are not and would not have been speeding.

So the cameras may be resulting an extremely small increase in crash risk but multiplied by an extremely large number of drivers/riders,
to prevent an extremely small number of crashes involving speeding.

(* fatal or serious collision, ** on average in the TV database, *** exceeding the speed limit).

heebeegeetee

28,850 posts

249 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
Vipers said:
livinginasia said:
Whether speed cameras increase or decrease the number of road deaths isn’t the issue, it’s just the excuse being used by the government that they make roads safer therefore they need to be used.

We all know the reason they exist is revenue collection. Same with LTNs, ULEZ, bus gates and all the other revenue raising cameras being installed to squeeze money out of the motorist.

It’s a great idea: using whatever statistics you like, the govt can claim they make roads safer / cleaner / quieter or whatever else they choose that day, stick up cameras and a few signs and watch the £££s roll in. Interesting article out this week showing Hammersmith & Fulham making a million pounds a month from fines from making a single road an LTN.

It’s all about the money, sadly.
Pay attention when driving, costs you nothing.
Agreed. Not paying attention costs the country billions, one way and another. This sad case popped up for me earlier today for some reason - it was the comment towards the end of the article that struck me - all that was required to avoid this mess was the following of some very basic rules. That's all.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12943033/...

It's crazy imo, how some people behave. I would say the woman who went to prison habitually drove round the mini rab the wrong way and habitually didn't pay attention when driving in her locality.

Think of these potential fines as idiot taxes, that is what the vast majority of them are, and yes, I've paid my fair share too.

heebeegeetee

28,850 posts

249 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
Dave Finney said:
Would the great British public support policies that are based on high-quality evidence? smile
The public are mad Dave, I don't think they're interested in evidence, I think they just largely want to do whatever they want to do and sod the consequences. They want to drive where they want, when they want at whatever speed they want, and they don't give a stuff about anyone who may not want to or who cannot drive. And I dare say, when I was young I was in that group too.

One question from an above link, re "higher than normal collision rate during the SSP" - has that occurred at every site?

Dave Finney

Original Poster:

410 posts

147 months

Tuesday 2nd April
quotequote all
heebeegeetee said:
One question from an above link, re "higher than normal collision rate during the SSP" - has that occurred at every site?
I do like questions about the evidence/data (thank you) but I don't know the answer for those Fixed camera sites.
Your quote is from this quick summary: https://speedcamerareport.co.uk/09_fixed/

The raw data is on my website, so you could work it out for yourself.
If I find time, maybe I could do that for you? smile

For the mobile sites, some were NOT selected after a high collision rate during the SSP,
In fact, 12 of the sites had no collisions at all in the SSP.
Fairly obviously, collision numbers could only go one way (up) and they did.
There were 14 collisions in the first 3 years of mobile speed camera operations at these 12 sites.