Speed cameras: Are we interested in evidence?
Discussion
vonhosen said:
I don't think that's his point. so much (the figures).
I think the point is an illustration of the methodology & call for a science based approached on that methodology.
I'm just not sure that it will result in what he wants, because it isn't as narrow a consideration as that when it comes to speed limits & their enforcement.
You've got it spot on, vonhosen.I think the point is an illustration of the methodology & call for a science based approached on that methodology.
I'm just not sure that it will result in what he wants, because it isn't as narrow a consideration as that when it comes to speed limits & their enforcement.
Road safety officials don't understand the system they're working on,
and that means more people seriously injured on our roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss
All my research really does, is point out that there is a problem,
and the problem is not speed cameras per se,
it's that the theories that support road safety policy are fundamentally flawed.
Dave Finney said:
vonhosen said:
I don't think that's his point. so much (the figures).
I think the point is an illustration of the methodology & call for a science based approached on that methodology.
I'm just not sure that it will result in what he wants, because it isn't as narrow a consideration as that when it comes to speed limits & their enforcement.
You've got it spot on, vonhosen.I think the point is an illustration of the methodology & call for a science based approached on that methodology.
I'm just not sure that it will result in what he wants, because it isn't as narrow a consideration as that when it comes to speed limits & their enforcement.
Road safety officials don't understand the system they're working on,
and that means more people seriously injured on our roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss
All my research really does, is point out that there is a problem,
and the problem is not speed cameras per se,
it's that the theories that support road safety policy are fundamentally flawed.
Dave Finney said:
vonhosen said:
I don't think that's his point. so much (the figures).
I think the point is an illustration of the methodology & call for a science based approached on that methodology.
I'm just not sure that it will result in what he wants, because it isn't as narrow a consideration as that when it comes to speed limits & their enforcement.
You've got it spot on, vonhosen.I think the point is an illustration of the methodology & call for a science based approached on that methodology.
I'm just not sure that it will result in what he wants, because it isn't as narrow a consideration as that when it comes to speed limits & their enforcement.
Road safety officials don't understand the system they're working on,
and that means more people seriously injured on our roads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss
All my research really does, is point out that there is a problem,
and the problem is not speed cameras per se,
it's that the theories that support road safety policy are fundamentally flawed.
vonhosen said:
But road safety policy isn't removed from politics & isn't likely to be. Because enforcement, particularly with speed limits, doesn't exist solely on road safety grounds. Sure It's a consideration within a wider policy, but it's just one part of it.
Yes, I agree.If scientific trials were run,
other political considerations could also be incorporated into the trials (as well as road safety),
and the benefits (or otherwise) of each included factor would be proven.
andrebar said:
If I’m understanding it correctly the research points to suboptimal use of the cameras rather than a fundamentally flawed strategy. Or in other words more serious injuries could be prevented by making better use of the evidence available. Which is not the same thing as claiming that more injuries occur because the cameras are being used.
Possibly.The evidence does suggest that "more injuries occur because the cameras are being used".
IOW, if the cameras had not been used, there would have been fewer fatal and serious crashes.
You're right, this does point to "suboptimal use of the cameras",
IOW, there may be ways that cameras can be used that at least don't result in more fatal and serious crashes,
and could maybe even reduce them.
But that will never happen until the authorities recognise that there is a problem,
hence my video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss
Dave Finney said:
1. IOW, there may be ways that cameras can be used that at least don't result in more fatal and serious crashes,
and could maybe even reduce them.
2. But that will never happen until the authorities recognise that there is a problem,
1. Such as hide the cameras?and could maybe even reduce them.
2. But that will never happen until the authorities recognise that there is a problem,
2. Which I doubt any of us here on PH would ever want, and would possibly be very unpopular with the public?
Dave Finney said:
andrebar said:
If I’m understanding it correctly the research points to suboptimal use of the cameras rather than a fundamentally flawed strategy. Or in other words more serious injuries could be prevented by making better use of the evidence available. Which is not the same thing as claiming that more injuries occur because the cameras are being used.
Possibly.The evidence does suggest that "more injuries occur because the cameras are being used".
IOW, if the cameras had not been used, there would have been fewer fatal and serious crashes.
You're right, this does point to "suboptimal use of the cameras",
IOW, there may be ways that cameras can be used that at least don't result in more fatal and serious crashes,
and could maybe even reduce them.
But that will never happen until the authorities recognise that there is a problem,
hence my video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GqOm-keyss
Be careful what you wish for.
vonhosen said:
You mean like hiding/disguising them so that drivers can't see them or know their locations?
Be careful what you wish for.
Again, vonhosen, I agree that that is 1 possible solution to the problem.Be careful what you wish for.
But there are issues.
1) You're making the same fundamental error that the authorities are making,
. . You've jumped to conclusions, and are simply proposing policy based on opinions.
. . that's what got us into this mess in the 1st place!
2) It has been tried to some degree.
. . The 1st cameras were painted grey and often hidden behind signs, bridges and trees
. . and there were no camera apps to warn you either
. . The evidence shows an increase in fatal and serious crashes at those sites:
. . https://speedcamerareport.co.uk/09_fixed
We need to know who, when and why there are more fatal and serious crashes at the camera sites.
Until we have that, we cannot know what might solve the problem, without risking even more death and injury.
heebeegeetee said:
1. Such as hide the cameras?
2. Which I doubt any of us here on PH would ever want, and would possibly be very unpopular with the public?
Possibly, but you have asked the question that I was asking in the title!2. Which I doubt any of us here on PH would ever want, and would possibly be very unpopular with the public?
"Do the public support policies based on evidence?"
Suppose the public were told:
We are going to run hidden speed cameras in certain areas for 3 years within scientific trials.
If death and serious injuries are proven to be reduced, we may continue that policy.
But if death and serious injuries are proven to increase,
cameras will never be hidden again,
and ALL cameras will be required by law to be run within scientific trials.
Would the great British public support policies that are based on high-quality evidence?
Dave Finney said:
vonhosen said:
You mean like hiding/disguising them so that drivers can't see them or know their locations?
Be careful what you wish for.
Again, vonhosen, I agree that that is 1 possible solution to the problem.Be careful what you wish for.
But there are issues.
1) You're making the same fundamental error that the authorities are making,
. . You've jumped to conclusions, and are simply proposing policy based on opinions.
. . that's what got us into this mess in the 1st place!
If research shows that people behave like stupids when they see cameras (sudden emergency braking, or our wheelie motorcyclists) resulting in fatalities, then that is because they saw the camera & reacted adversely to it. If they are so disguised & moved so that it's not known where they are that won't happen. Of course something else might happen but we won't know until it's trialled & researched.
Presumably then you are calling for trials of them being used under deep cover to see if that helps?
Dave Finney said:
2) It has been tried to some degree.
. . The 1st cameras were painted grey and often hidden behind signs, bridges and trees
. . and there were no camera apps to warn you either
. . The evidence shows an increase in fatal and serious crashes at those sites:
. . https://speedcamerareport.co.uk/09_fixed
I'm talking about deep disguise, not just painting grey & not just fixed cameras.. . The 1st cameras were painted grey and often hidden behind signs, bridges and trees
. . and there were no camera apps to warn you either
. . The evidence shows an increase in fatal and serious crashes at those sites:
. . https://speedcamerareport.co.uk/09_fixed
Dave Finney said:
We need to know who, when and why there are more fatal and serious crashes at the camera sites.
Until we have that, we cannot know what might solve the problem, without risking even more death and injury.
Until they trial that they won't know if it helps eliminate stupid's behaviours at cameras sites.Until we have that, we cannot know what might solve the problem, without risking even more death and injury.
Edited by vonhosen on Monday 1st April 17:19
Dave Finney said:
heebeegeetee said:
1. Such as hide the cameras?
2. Which I doubt any of us here on PH would ever want, and would possibly be very unpopular with the public?
Possibly, but you have asked the question that I was asking in the title!2. Which I doubt any of us here on PH would ever want, and would possibly be very unpopular with the public?
"Do the public support policies based on evidence?"
Suppose the public were told:
We are going to run hidden speed cameras in certain areas for 3 years within scientific trials.
If death and serious injuries are proven to be reduced, we may continue that policy.
But if death and serious injuries are proven to increase,
cameras will never be hidden again,
and ALL cameras will be required by law to be run within scientific trials.
Would the great British public support policies that are based on high-quality evidence?
Also humans don't all deal with the world simply in terms of just data & evidence. How many people in this country (or indeed on this planet) believe in a God?
vonhosen said:
On it's own (that is evidence in relation to deaths at speed camera sites), against a wider issue of speed limits & enforcement, I doubt it.
Also humans don't all deal with the world simply in terms of just data & evidence. How many people in this country (or indeed on this planet) believe in a God?
Agreed Also humans don't all deal with the world simply in terms of just data & evidence. How many people in this country (or indeed on this planet) believe in a God?
I doubt whether the general public understand or care about safety policy based on data. Would require level of thought which they are incapable or unwilling to give. Next episode of Corrie is more appealing.
Propaganda and dogma have won the day. We all need to chant: Speed kills - Kill your speed; Speed cameras make the roads safe
Whether speed cameras increase or decrease the number of road deaths isn’t the issue, it’s just the excuse being used by the government that they make roads safer therefore they need to be used.
We all know the reason they exist is revenue collection. Same with LTNs, ULEZ, bus gates and all the other revenue raising cameras being installed to squeeze money out of the motorist.
It’s a great idea: using whatever statistics you like, the govt can claim they make roads safer / cleaner / quieter or whatever else they choose that day, stick up cameras and a few signs and watch the £££s roll in. Interesting article out this week showing Hammersmith & Fulham making a million pounds a month from fines from making a single road an LTN.
It’s all about the money, sadly.
We all know the reason they exist is revenue collection. Same with LTNs, ULEZ, bus gates and all the other revenue raising cameras being installed to squeeze money out of the motorist.
It’s a great idea: using whatever statistics you like, the govt can claim they make roads safer / cleaner / quieter or whatever else they choose that day, stick up cameras and a few signs and watch the £££s roll in. Interesting article out this week showing Hammersmith & Fulham making a million pounds a month from fines from making a single road an LTN.
It’s all about the money, sadly.
livinginasia said:
Whether speed cameras increase or decrease the number of road deaths isn’t the issue, it’s just the excuse being used by the government that they make roads safer therefore they need to be used.
We all know the reason they exist is revenue collection. Same with LTNs, ULEZ, bus gates and all the other revenue raising cameras being installed to squeeze money out of the motorist.
It’s a great idea: using whatever statistics you like, the govt can claim they make roads safer / cleaner / quieter or whatever else they choose that day, stick up cameras and a few signs and watch the £££s roll in. Interesting article out this week showing Hammersmith & Fulham making a million pounds a month from fines from making a single road an LTN.
It’s all about the money, sadly.
Pay attention when driving, costs you nothing.We all know the reason they exist is revenue collection. Same with LTNs, ULEZ, bus gates and all the other revenue raising cameras being installed to squeeze money out of the motorist.
It’s a great idea: using whatever statistics you like, the govt can claim they make roads safer / cleaner / quieter or whatever else they choose that day, stick up cameras and a few signs and watch the £££s roll in. Interesting article out this week showing Hammersmith & Fulham making a million pounds a month from fines from making a single road an LTN.
It’s all about the money, sadly.
andrebar said:
Dave Finney said:
Would the great British public support policies that are based on high-quality evidence?
I expect the vast majority place far greater importance on the quality of policy decision making (largely a matter of opinion) than that of the underlying evidence.vonhosen said:
If research shows that people behave like stupids when they see cameras (sudden emergency braking, or our wheelie motorcyclists) resulting in fatalities, then that is because they saw the camera & reacted adversely to it.
The research only shows that there are increases, it does not show who or why..You're still jumping to the conclusion that it is only "stupids" crashing at camera sites,
but it could be that otherwise safe and responsible people are also increasing the crash rate at camera sites.
Eg;
there is 1 FSC* every 3 years at camera sites**.
also around 8% of FSC involve a vehicle speeding***.
So cameras might be able to prevent 1 FSC every 37 years,
but, during that time, they may be changing the behaviour of most (nearly all?) drivers/riders,
even those who are not and would not have been speeding.
So the cameras may be resulting an extremely small increase in crash risk but multiplied by an extremely large number of drivers/riders,
to prevent an extremely small number of crashes involving speeding.
(* fatal or serious collision, ** on average in the TV database, *** exceeding the speed limit).
Vipers said:
livinginasia said:
Whether speed cameras increase or decrease the number of road deaths isn’t the issue, it’s just the excuse being used by the government that they make roads safer therefore they need to be used.
We all know the reason they exist is revenue collection. Same with LTNs, ULEZ, bus gates and all the other revenue raising cameras being installed to squeeze money out of the motorist.
It’s a great idea: using whatever statistics you like, the govt can claim they make roads safer / cleaner / quieter or whatever else they choose that day, stick up cameras and a few signs and watch the £££s roll in. Interesting article out this week showing Hammersmith & Fulham making a million pounds a month from fines from making a single road an LTN.
It’s all about the money, sadly.
Pay attention when driving, costs you nothing.We all know the reason they exist is revenue collection. Same with LTNs, ULEZ, bus gates and all the other revenue raising cameras being installed to squeeze money out of the motorist.
It’s a great idea: using whatever statistics you like, the govt can claim they make roads safer / cleaner / quieter or whatever else they choose that day, stick up cameras and a few signs and watch the £££s roll in. Interesting article out this week showing Hammersmith & Fulham making a million pounds a month from fines from making a single road an LTN.
It’s all about the money, sadly.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12943033/...
It's crazy imo, how some people behave. I would say the woman who went to prison habitually drove round the mini rab the wrong way and habitually didn't pay attention when driving in her locality.
Think of these potential fines as idiot taxes, that is what the vast majority of them are, and yes, I've paid my fair share too.
Dave Finney said:
Would the great British public support policies that are based on high-quality evidence?
The public are mad Dave, I don't think they're interested in evidence, I think they just largely want to do whatever they want to do and sod the consequences. They want to drive where they want, when they want at whatever speed they want, and they don't give a stuff about anyone who may not want to or who cannot drive. And I dare say, when I was young I was in that group too. One question from an above link, re "higher than normal collision rate during the SSP" - has that occurred at every site?
heebeegeetee said:
One question from an above link, re "higher than normal collision rate during the SSP" - has that occurred at every site?
I do like questions about the evidence/data (thank you) but I don't know the answer for those Fixed camera sites.Your quote is from this quick summary: https://speedcamerareport.co.uk/09_fixed/
The raw data is on my website, so you could work it out for yourself.
If I find time, maybe I could do that for you?
For the mobile sites, some were NOT selected after a high collision rate during the SSP,
In fact, 12 of the sites had no collisions at all in the SSP.
Fairly obviously, collision numbers could only go one way (up) and they did.
There were 14 collisions in the first 3 years of mobile speed camera operations at these 12 sites.
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