Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]

Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]

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HarryW

15,150 posts

269 months

Monday 14th May 2012
quotequote all
Apache said:
Always a glass half empty man that Peston
Can't watch or listen to him, complete cocjtard imho, he just grates on me. If his written work is as poor as his spoken word then he would fall foul of the PH gramma' police in sort order..............

anonymous-user

54 months

Monday 14th May 2012
quotequote all
I'm a bit of a simpleton when it comes to these things, have followed the thread for a while so forgive if this has been asked or is stupid

If (or more likely when) the Greeks leave other countries will most likely follow especially if it isn't as painful as people think

Would this not be a good(ish) thing for the UK as people look to put their money in a safe currency e.g. GBP

1point7bar

1,305 posts

148 months

Monday 14th May 2012
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
The State? (UK), debtors, creditors and consumers would all experience a different direct consequence.

davepoth

29,395 posts

199 months

Monday 14th May 2012
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anonymous said:
[redacted]
Your first point is right, your second wrong; but it is almost perversely counter-intuitive. wink

When people buy lots of Pounds, the value of Pounds goes up. Great for going on holiday, not great for industry trying to sell to people who don't have pounds to pay use with. That hurts the economy, so the government would rather the pound stay weak at the moment so that our exports are more competitive. On the plus side, people will probably pile out of the Pound if Greece leaves.

With every crap country that is ejected, the Euro becomes more and more like a Deutschmark, and there's nothing the markets love more than a safe and sturdy Deutschmark. It works out quite nicely for us really, and that's the benefit of a floating exchange rate. Now point across the channel and laugh a bit. biggrin

anonymous-user

54 months

Monday 14th May 2012
quotequote all
davepoth said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Your first point is right, your second wrong; but it is almost perversely counter-intuitive. wink

When people buy lots of Pounds, the value of Pounds goes up. Great for going on holiday, not great for industry trying to sell to people who don't have pounds to pay use with. That hurts the economy, so the government would rather the pound stay weak at the moment so that our exports are more competitive. On the plus side, people will probably pile out of the Pound if Greece leaves.

With every crap country that is ejected, the Euro becomes more and more like a Deutschmark, and there's nothing the markets love more than a safe and sturdy Deutschmark. It works out quite nicely for us really, and that's the benefit of a floating exchange rate. Now point across the channel and laugh a bit. biggrin
Thank you that makes sense to me now

I shall point and laugh biggrin

Uhura fighter

7,018 posts

183 months

Monday 14th May 2012
quotequote all
michael portillo BBC2 - This world

Great Euro Crash - on now.

Steffan

10,362 posts

228 months

Monday 14th May 2012
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1point7bar said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
The State? (UK), debtors, creditors and consumers would all experience a different direct consequence.
I agree with this post. The real problem here is the multilevel consequences of seismic changes in the economics of the Euro and the EU, are bound to have very different effects, on the many different groups of individuals and organisations directly affected, by the consequences of the changes.

This much turbulence in the currency markets, investor confidence and economic structures of very large economic areas such as the Eurozone is, thankfully, extremely rare and extremely difficult, indeed probably impossible, to predict or anticipate.

I cannot see how to predict the results except that I can see this problem growing rapidly larger and therefor rising in its effects as the domino effect comes into play. These changes will reverberate across the world of finance and there will be major changes to the structure of investment and funding of Sovereign states in consequence.

I think the EU leaders have always known, that that was likely to be the real consequence of the defaults of several Sovereign states, unless the EU could hold those states within the EU. Hence the desperate attempts.

Unfortunately, as others have repeatedly reminded us, the actual management ability of the EU leadership has been woefully inadequate and they have been caught out, trying to support, wholly unsupportable and insolvent countries.

I do not think economic collapse, on this scale, has happened in Europe before. Certainly not post WWII. Predicting the outcome, is therefore very problematic.

But I am certain, that, the defaults, are upon us.


smack

9,729 posts

191 months

Monday 14th May 2012
quotequote all
Uhura fighter said:
michael portillo BBC2 - This world

Great Euro Crash - on now.
This was on the other night (if it started with him driving a Porsche).

I was going to raise it the other day - I this show, everyone in Europe thinks the Euro is best for them...

hidetheelephants

24,357 posts

193 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
smack said:
Uhura fighter said:
michael portillo BBC2 - This world

Great Euro Crash - on now.
This was on the other night (if it started with him driving a Porsche).

I was going to raise it the other day - I this show, everyone in Europe thinks the Euro is best for them...
Superficially I just interpret this as the EZ propagandists as having done their job really well; they have convinced everyone that however bad it seemed, the return of the Drachma/Lire/Peso/Punt/Groat/etc was the numismatic equivalent of 'here be dragons'.

Apache

39,731 posts

284 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Your first point is right, your second wrong; but it is almost perversely counter-intuitive. wink

When people buy lots of Pounds, the value of Pounds goes up. Great for going on holiday, not great for industry trying to sell to people who don't have pounds to pay use with. That hurts the economy, so the government would rather the pound stay weak at the moment so that our exports are more competitive. On the plus side, people will probably pile out of the Pound if Greece leaves.

With every crap country that is ejected, the Euro becomes more and more like a Deutschmark, and there's nothing the markets love more than a safe and sturdy Deutschmark. It works out quite nicely for us really, and that's the benefit of a floating exchange rate. Now point across the channel and laugh a bit. biggrin
Thank you that makes sense to me now

I shall point and laugh biggrin
But what if all the other Euro Countries have invested in these 'crap' countries, heavily, they lose their collective shirts and become poor

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

247 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
Did we all see this photo taken by some German journalists from inside the Greek Finance ministry? It looks like something out of Longbridge just before MG Rover went bust. And they wonder why they're in such a financial mess!


GBB

1,737 posts

159 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
smack said:
Uhura fighter said:
michael portillo BBC2 - This world

Great Euro Crash - on now.
This was on the other night (if it started with him driving a Porsche).

I was going to raise it the other day - I this show, everyone in Europe thinks the Euro is best for them...
It was the repeat. I watched it last night for the 1st time.

What is showed is how people on the street don't understand the situation.

To me what they were saying was really "Yes, I want the good old days when we had a strong currency (the Euro) and the rampant economy that brought us wealth".

Who wouldn't prefer Euros to Drachmas? - we all would, even Greeks.

What it should have said is "would you do it again" - have the great splurge and the good times but the hangover - or to have less wealth but a more stable economy.



GBB

1,737 posts

159 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
Apache said:
But what if all the other Euro Countries have invested in these 'crap' countries, heavily, they lose their collective shirts and become poor
That's the problem, otherwise they'd have been kicked out months ago.

The real problem for us is primarily the impact onto banks and pension schemes as the dominoes (Greece>Spain>France>UK Banks) topple.



DJRC

23,563 posts

236 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
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DJRC said:
6 months late.

See, this is what happens when you promise a load of money, then when time comes to pony up, you realise you dont have it.
This latest load of dosh for Greece was what Angie was agreeing to back in the summer/autumn. It was just words at the time.

Why is the EU now making it ever more strident in demands to Greece about how they get it? Because the EU doesnt really have the cash to give and Angie knows she sure as fook aint persuading anybody in Germany that its a wise decision to give the Greeks anymore dosh.

Nicht dosh ppl, nicht dosh.

Ill give you 10-1 on either Angie or Bruni being in charge of their countries after stumps.

Its time to call this one. Euro Mk 1 is dead. The death throws will take 3-6months, but its gone. Greece will exit in that time frame and as soon as it does Spain and Portugal will follow. The EU and Euro will survive, but it will be re-baselined with a more Northern European focus. Watch the diplomatic language change from now on, Dave is about to start paying a hell of a more attention to Germany.

Steffan, you were right after all with Autumn, just wrong year.
3 months to the day chaps and this morning the news across Europe is the open discussion of when and how Greece leaves the Euro.

hornetrider

63,161 posts

205 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
Andy Zarse said:
Did we all see this photo taken by some German journalists from inside the Greek Finance ministry? It looks like something out of Longbridge just before MG Rover went bust. And they wonder why they're in such a financial mess!

eek

Jesus wept!

Gary11

4,162 posts

201 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
IMO its already decided they are out,with bigger countries owing more watching in the wings,putting the ifs and buts to one side could someone give an opinion on how the Euro will cope with being knocked 170bn at least and who will pay it back? I infer I suppose in my naivet that countries owing watching Greece walk away may follow suit.....perhaps the Germans will implode or somesuch??
What countries realisticaly in the Union are turning a profit apart from Germany? Even Hollands government collapsed last week it really does seem at last to be coming on top....A toast may be in order to the theiving lying scum such as Barbosa ,Rumpoy & la Garde and co as thay lay in the gutter where they belong,guilty of blatant financial sculldugery on a massive scale pursuing a self serving dream.I hope they rot you see this is what happens when the children run the sweetshop.

Andy Zarse

10,868 posts

247 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
DJRC said:
DJRC said:
6 months late.

See, this is what happens when you promise a load of money, then when time comes to pony up, you realise you dont have it.
This latest load of dosh for Greece was what Angie was agreeing to back in the summer/autumn. It was just words at the time.

Why is the EU now making it ever more strident in demands to Greece about how they get it? Because the EU doesnt really have the cash to give and Angie knows she sure as fook aint persuading anybody in Germany that its a wise decision to give the Greeks anymore dosh.

Nicht dosh ppl, nicht dosh.

Ill give you 10-1 on either Angie or Bruni being in charge of their countries after stumps.

Its time to call this one. Euro Mk 1 is dead. The death throws will take 3-6months, but its gone. Greece will exit in that time frame and as soon as it does Spain and Portugal will follow. The EU and Euro will survive, but it will be re-baselined with a more Northern European focus. Watch the diplomatic language change from now on, Dave is about to start paying a hell of a more attention to Germany.

Steffan, you were right after all with Autumn, just wrong year.
3 months to the day chaps and this morning the news across Europe is the open discussion of when and how Greece leaves the Euro.
Normally I enjoy nit picking with you smile but on this I was in accord at the time and even more so now. You'll recall that I've been pointing out for the last six months the various Euro rescue vehicles have no actual assets beyond political hot air, hype and bombast. Ange won't cough, Herr Rollstuhl is currently puce in the face with anger at the direction the rest of Europe is heading and if it goes on he's likely to wheelie over backwards!

Talking of Dave, and his supposed "veto" of the fiskalpact, I can't work out whether Ange will be secretly pleased with him smile

cal216610

7,839 posts

170 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
I wonder if they have ever thought about hitting a reset button on all world finance.
Could it be possible even, maybe suffer a deep depression for a year or so while things get organized again.

anonymous-user

54 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
coyft said:
Greece 'will repay €436m debt today'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...

Don't look like it's leaving today.
What do they pay it with, olives?

PRTVR

7,106 posts

221 months

Tuesday 15th May 2012
quotequote all
coyft said:
Greece 'will repay €436m debt today'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...

Don't look like it's leaving today.
But where did it get the money from? Another loan maybe.
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