Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]
Discussion
I'm a bit of a simpleton when it comes to these things, have followed the thread for a while so forgive if this has been asked or is stupid
If (or more likely when) the Greeks leave other countries will most likely follow especially if it isn't as painful as people think
Would this not be a good(ish) thing for the UK as people look to put their money in a safe currency e.g. GBP
If (or more likely when) the Greeks leave other countries will most likely follow especially if it isn't as painful as people think
Would this not be a good(ish) thing for the UK as people look to put their money in a safe currency e.g. GBP
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Your first point is right, your second wrong; but it is almost perversely counter-intuitive. When people buy lots of Pounds, the value of Pounds goes up. Great for going on holiday, not great for industry trying to sell to people who don't have pounds to pay use with. That hurts the economy, so the government would rather the pound stay weak at the moment so that our exports are more competitive. On the plus side, people will probably pile out of the Pound if Greece leaves.
With every crap country that is ejected, the Euro becomes more and more like a Deutschmark, and there's nothing the markets love more than a safe and sturdy Deutschmark. It works out quite nicely for us really, and that's the benefit of a floating exchange rate. Now point across the channel and laugh a bit.
davepoth said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Your first point is right, your second wrong; but it is almost perversely counter-intuitive. When people buy lots of Pounds, the value of Pounds goes up. Great for going on holiday, not great for industry trying to sell to people who don't have pounds to pay use with. That hurts the economy, so the government would rather the pound stay weak at the moment so that our exports are more competitive. On the plus side, people will probably pile out of the Pound if Greece leaves.
With every crap country that is ejected, the Euro becomes more and more like a Deutschmark, and there's nothing the markets love more than a safe and sturdy Deutschmark. It works out quite nicely for us really, and that's the benefit of a floating exchange rate. Now point across the channel and laugh a bit.
I shall point and laugh
1point7bar said:
anonymous said:
[redacted]
The State? (UK), debtors, creditors and consumers would all experience a different direct consequence.This much turbulence in the currency markets, investor confidence and economic structures of very large economic areas such as the Eurozone is, thankfully, extremely rare and extremely difficult, indeed probably impossible, to predict or anticipate.
I cannot see how to predict the results except that I can see this problem growing rapidly larger and therefor rising in its effects as the domino effect comes into play. These changes will reverberate across the world of finance and there will be major changes to the structure of investment and funding of Sovereign states in consequence.
I think the EU leaders have always known, that that was likely to be the real consequence of the defaults of several Sovereign states, unless the EU could hold those states within the EU. Hence the desperate attempts.
Unfortunately, as others have repeatedly reminded us, the actual management ability of the EU leadership has been woefully inadequate and they have been caught out, trying to support, wholly unsupportable and insolvent countries.
I do not think economic collapse, on this scale, has happened in Europe before. Certainly not post WWII. Predicting the outcome, is therefore very problematic.
But I am certain, that, the defaults, are upon us.
smack said:
Uhura fighter said:
michael portillo BBC2 - This world
Great Euro Crash - on now.
This was on the other night (if it started with him driving a Porsche).Great Euro Crash - on now.
I was going to raise it the other day - I this show, everyone in Europe thinks the Euro is best for them...
anonymous said:
[redacted]
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Your first point is right, your second wrong; but it is almost perversely counter-intuitive. When people buy lots of Pounds, the value of Pounds goes up. Great for going on holiday, not great for industry trying to sell to people who don't have pounds to pay use with. That hurts the economy, so the government would rather the pound stay weak at the moment so that our exports are more competitive. On the plus side, people will probably pile out of the Pound if Greece leaves.
With every crap country that is ejected, the Euro becomes more and more like a Deutschmark, and there's nothing the markets love more than a safe and sturdy Deutschmark. It works out quite nicely for us really, and that's the benefit of a floating exchange rate. Now point across the channel and laugh a bit.
I shall point and laugh
smack said:
Uhura fighter said:
michael portillo BBC2 - This world
Great Euro Crash - on now.
This was on the other night (if it started with him driving a Porsche).Great Euro Crash - on now.
I was going to raise it the other day - I this show, everyone in Europe thinks the Euro is best for them...
What is showed is how people on the street don't understand the situation.
To me what they were saying was really "Yes, I want the good old days when we had a strong currency (the Euro) and the rampant economy that brought us wealth".
Who wouldn't prefer Euros to Drachmas? - we all would, even Greeks.
What it should have said is "would you do it again" - have the great splurge and the good times but the hangover - or to have less wealth but a more stable economy.
Apache said:
But what if all the other Euro Countries have invested in these 'crap' countries, heavily, they lose their collective shirts and become poor
That's the problem, otherwise they'd have been kicked out months ago.The real problem for us is primarily the impact onto banks and pension schemes as the dominoes (Greece>Spain>France>UK Banks) topple.
DJRC said:
6 months late.
See, this is what happens when you promise a load of money, then when time comes to pony up, you realise you dont have it.
This latest load of dosh for Greece was what Angie was agreeing to back in the summer/autumn. It was just words at the time.
Why is the EU now making it ever more strident in demands to Greece about how they get it? Because the EU doesnt really have the cash to give and Angie knows she sure as fook aint persuading anybody in Germany that its a wise decision to give the Greeks anymore dosh.
Nicht dosh ppl, nicht dosh.
Ill give you 10-1 on either Angie or Bruni being in charge of their countries after stumps.
Its time to call this one. Euro Mk 1 is dead. The death throws will take 3-6months, but its gone. Greece will exit in that time frame and as soon as it does Spain and Portugal will follow. The EU and Euro will survive, but it will be re-baselined with a more Northern European focus. Watch the diplomatic language change from now on, Dave is about to start paying a hell of a more attention to Germany.
Steffan, you were right after all with Autumn, just wrong year.
3 months to the day chaps and this morning the news across Europe is the open discussion of when and how Greece leaves the Euro.See, this is what happens when you promise a load of money, then when time comes to pony up, you realise you dont have it.
This latest load of dosh for Greece was what Angie was agreeing to back in the summer/autumn. It was just words at the time.
Why is the EU now making it ever more strident in demands to Greece about how they get it? Because the EU doesnt really have the cash to give and Angie knows she sure as fook aint persuading anybody in Germany that its a wise decision to give the Greeks anymore dosh.
Nicht dosh ppl, nicht dosh.
Ill give you 10-1 on either Angie or Bruni being in charge of their countries after stumps.
Its time to call this one. Euro Mk 1 is dead. The death throws will take 3-6months, but its gone. Greece will exit in that time frame and as soon as it does Spain and Portugal will follow. The EU and Euro will survive, but it will be re-baselined with a more Northern European focus. Watch the diplomatic language change from now on, Dave is about to start paying a hell of a more attention to Germany.
Steffan, you were right after all with Autumn, just wrong year.
IMO its already decided they are out,with bigger countries owing more watching in the wings,putting the ifs and buts to one side could someone give an opinion on how the Euro will cope with being knocked 170bn at least and who will pay it back? I infer I suppose in my naivet that countries owing watching Greece walk away may follow suit.....perhaps the Germans will implode or somesuch??
What countries realisticaly in the Union are turning a profit apart from Germany? Even Hollands government collapsed last week it really does seem at last to be coming on top....A toast may be in order to the theiving lying scum such as Barbosa ,Rumpoy & la Garde and co as thay lay in the gutter where they belong,guilty of blatant financial sculldugery on a massive scale pursuing a self serving dream.I hope they rot you see this is what happens when the children run the sweetshop.
What countries realisticaly in the Union are turning a profit apart from Germany? Even Hollands government collapsed last week it really does seem at last to be coming on top....A toast may be in order to the theiving lying scum such as Barbosa ,Rumpoy & la Garde and co as thay lay in the gutter where they belong,guilty of blatant financial sculldugery on a massive scale pursuing a self serving dream.I hope they rot you see this is what happens when the children run the sweetshop.
DJRC said:
DJRC said:
6 months late.
See, this is what happens when you promise a load of money, then when time comes to pony up, you realise you dont have it.
This latest load of dosh for Greece was what Angie was agreeing to back in the summer/autumn. It was just words at the time.
Why is the EU now making it ever more strident in demands to Greece about how they get it? Because the EU doesnt really have the cash to give and Angie knows she sure as fook aint persuading anybody in Germany that its a wise decision to give the Greeks anymore dosh.
Nicht dosh ppl, nicht dosh.
Ill give you 10-1 on either Angie or Bruni being in charge of their countries after stumps.
Its time to call this one. Euro Mk 1 is dead. The death throws will take 3-6months, but its gone. Greece will exit in that time frame and as soon as it does Spain and Portugal will follow. The EU and Euro will survive, but it will be re-baselined with a more Northern European focus. Watch the diplomatic language change from now on, Dave is about to start paying a hell of a more attention to Germany.
Steffan, you were right after all with Autumn, just wrong year.
3 months to the day chaps and this morning the news across Europe is the open discussion of when and how Greece leaves the Euro.See, this is what happens when you promise a load of money, then when time comes to pony up, you realise you dont have it.
This latest load of dosh for Greece was what Angie was agreeing to back in the summer/autumn. It was just words at the time.
Why is the EU now making it ever more strident in demands to Greece about how they get it? Because the EU doesnt really have the cash to give and Angie knows she sure as fook aint persuading anybody in Germany that its a wise decision to give the Greeks anymore dosh.
Nicht dosh ppl, nicht dosh.
Ill give you 10-1 on either Angie or Bruni being in charge of their countries after stumps.
Its time to call this one. Euro Mk 1 is dead. The death throws will take 3-6months, but its gone. Greece will exit in that time frame and as soon as it does Spain and Portugal will follow. The EU and Euro will survive, but it will be re-baselined with a more Northern European focus. Watch the diplomatic language change from now on, Dave is about to start paying a hell of a more attention to Germany.
Steffan, you were right after all with Autumn, just wrong year.
Talking of Dave, and his supposed "veto" of the fiskalpact, I can't work out whether Ange will be secretly pleased with him
coyft said:
Greece 'will repay €436m debt today'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...
Don't look like it's leaving today.
What do they pay it with, olives?http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...
Don't look like it's leaving today.
coyft said:
Greece 'will repay €436m debt today'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...
Don't look like it's leaving today.
But where did it get the money from? Another loan maybe.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis...
Don't look like it's leaving today.
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