Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]

I find the Greek settlement with the non consenting bind swap holders very interesting. I believe it is because the unpaid creditors on these bonds have contracts based in UK law which means they could (and would) pursue overseas Greek assets, not protected by the borders of Greece, and the Greeks are buying them off. Immediately.

But the rest of the creditors and EU states can whistle for their money. Rough justice.

Clearly the Greeks are going bust, there is a plan in place, and this has been worked out in some detail. The EU can obviously survive a small country folding.

But what will this do to the other HBAT's Spain, Portugal and Italy? IMO the domino effect will begin immediately to weaken the position of these countries, seriously. The EU cannot afford to bail these countries out. Greece will slide into default and then ,the spotlight really will fall on the others.

Given the appalling record of EU fudges and failures to deal with any of this effectively, I think we will see a steady slide into collapse for these three countries, probably in the otder of, Portugal, then Spain and then Italy. Each default will deal a body low to the EU. Each time there will be greater and greater doubt created in the markets that the EU is not in fact a sound well managed community if prudent nations.

Which is of course entirely true of the defaulters particularly, and the EU as a whole. As others have said on PH the EU has failed to achieve an unqualified audit at any time thus far in its history. Financially the EU is a complete disaster. Which is why this has happened.

I think that, this, is going to get a lot more serious and a lot more critical for the EU. There are some very serious changes coming up for the EU which will radically alter the standing of the EU and the future of European political direction.

Spain Portugal and Italy. That is where the focus will be moving. As Greece sinks.

I agree Ireland has the same problems but in economic terms I think the size of the other three makes their imminent defaults much more critical.

DJRC pointed out some time ago that France and Belgium are toast, when this lot default and it is widely recognised, that, the knock on effects on the EU banks, would decimate EU finance.

In fact the whole question of EU banking solvency would be highlighted by these defaults. I am not at all sure that all three defaulting is in any way, a recoverable position for the EU.

In which case the Irish question, along with an awful lot more detail and questions, becomes entirely academic. This is, I fear, life changing stuff. For many, many millions of people.

Far more to this then just the money

Do you like the netherlands?

You should go, no question.





PS we have a flat to rent out in Holland!

The pretty little town of schiedam just outside Rotterdam

So, back on topic. With all the high profile press on the 700m withdrawal from Greek Bank by 4pm Monday will we see a full on run today with associated queues etc.

No one sensible would keep cash in a Greek Bank right now.

I'm surprised there was 700m left in to take out...

It is a bellwether to the Greek public opinion (ignore the disruptive outliers).
Possibly their feeling is der Dukatenscheisser is still sat on the pot.

Assuming it's an ex-pat deal?

My main question would be what's the exit strategy? If it's your current employer then just get guaranteed* (*as much as anything can be guaranteed) repatriation to a UK job should they make changes to Dutch/Euro operations. Worst case scenario for me would be being made redundant whilst living abroad with no repatriation costs.

So would now be a good time for the UK to leave the EU and stop paying our membership fees?

straw, cammels back...