Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

A month, or so, ago the BBC was following up on a guy who was a Ukrainian teacher / student when Russia invaded. He is now a battle hardened officer, complete with facial scars, leading a platoon of battle-hardened fellow conscripts. He was about 21.

Throwing guys in at the deep-end and telling them to swim for their life seems to work for Ukraine, so why not for Russia? I accept that the Ukrainians are likely to be even more motivated, but kill, or be killed, must have a strong effect on someone on the frontline, so absolute numbers must count for something.

It probably also has something to do with being well equipped with modern, effective weaponry - I'm sure that must be motivational as well (along with the desire to defend their country).

A recent Perun video for your sunday arvo.

More likely that Ukrainian Junior Officers are permitted some freedom of action/mission command within a NATO style Maneuverist doctrine. Quite unlike what the Russian's practice which seems to involve some Colonel or above (who only got there by butt crack snorkeling and corruption, not competence) making st decisions and giving orders for subordinates to carry out.

I would be very surprised if the 75k figure holds true for the Russians. From the info earlier on in the ‘special operation’ Russian standard practice is to outfit very basic kit and then apply the principle of forage/steal what you need.

The problem for the Russians is that while the Ukrainians may be developing a battle hardened core of capable soldiers, the Russian equivalent probably has a relatively high chance of not getting to the point of being battle hardened due to the high mortality involved in their human wave tactics. I seem to recall reading (from a non Ukraine source) that the ratio of Ukraine kills to losses is so ludicrously one sided that you assume that the numbers in the next Russia recruitment wave factor in attritional numbers that no western army would ever accept.

You have to wonder at what point Russian standard operating practice starts to look at the pool of available meat and realise unlike in centuries past it isn’t effectively limitless.
And at what point does the wider Russian populace start noticing a lack of progress combined with an ever increasing volume of unmarked coffins.

Really?

Who would be on russia's side apart from NK and Iran?

With Russia busy Iran have no friends to help out if someone has a go at forcing the Ayatollahs out.

Thing is we are only told what they tell us. I'd imagine by the time it hits mainstream media, it's done

I wondered if the recent (entirely justified) protest in Iran may have had a nudge from CIA/Mossad

You have most of the answers to your question in your own post. It's all about the difference in motivation and environment.

The Ukrainians are fighting for their homeland in their homeland. This isn't Vegas, what happens in Ukraine stays in Ukraine, cowardice and bravery will stay with you, not least if you are fighting in a unit with your neighbours.

Fundamentally the motivation for the soldiers is one of fitting in, group cohesion, if your comrades are brave, selfless and diligent then in all likelihood the desire of young men to fit in will make them behave likewise.

Thus the soldiers who survive being brave, despite being green are likely to naturally select those who are proficient.

If we look at the Russian side, there are some professional units who did quite well. The only issue is that these units were deployed until they had suffered heavy attrition and they deployed their training units so these units haven't been requipped. Without proper R&R these units can reach the state of fatigue when that group reinforcement breaks down, those battle hardened men no longer need to prove anything. Ideally you would shuffle them around and have the seasoned soldiers train/motivate the new men

However the reports coming back from most Russian units are that moral and culture is pretty poor. They have issues with soldier welfare and also with reliable communication, hence the multiple captures of villages. In this environment you have examples of soldiers, faking engagements, claiming to have advanced to places they haven't and killed vast numbers of Ukrainians.

I'm this environment the soldiers who have survived are likely to be the ones who, simulated assaults, abandoned their kit, stole their kit off other units, fell back while the unit they were meant to support got chewed up etc. etc.