Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

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Discussion

Cheib

23,304 posts

176 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
martynr said:
ConnectionError said:
martynr said:
borcy said:
https://unrollnow.com/status/1786181552210149828

Thread about issues around Russian manpower
Absolute bs.
Explain in more detail?
Their population is over 140mil. The narative is being pushed that they are low, but they keep using meat at high rates and there is no shortage in attacks.
The Kremlin has so far been fairly careful about where it has been recruiting/conscripting from….it has been avoiding the major cities. At some point they are going to have to start tapping in to those population centres, If coffins start heading back to Moscow/St Petersburg in meaningful numbers it changes the narrative.

I guess sitting here that doesn’t sound that meaningful but the Kremlin is clearly concerned about it.

Cheib

23,304 posts

176 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
Bright Halo said:
This is an interesting and scary article about N Korea’s manufacture and supply of missiles into Russia.
Missiles manufactured using American components despite all the sanctions.
7,000 containers shipped from N Korea to Russia!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68933778
It’s pretty incredible how efficeint their sourcing of components is. That said I am guessing they don’t need the Hong Kong shell companies that the article describes…I am sure Xi is very happy to supply North Korea whatever they need. China don ‘t want Russia to lose in Korea but also don’t want to be seen to be supplying arms to Russia…how about they help North Korea manufacture arms and send them to Russia ?

The only “good news” is that the reason the US has sent long range ATACMS to Ukraine is because these North Korean missiles have been supplied to Ukraine, That was the “red line” the US apparently communicated to Russia….”you take missiles from North Korea and we will supply Ukraine with long range missiles”…Putin called their bluff and for once they followed through on the threat.


Edited by Cheib on Sunday 5th May 10:59

Adam.

27,320 posts

255 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
Bright Halo said:
This is an interesting and scary article about N Korea’s manufacture and supply of missiles into Russia.
Missiles manufactured using American components despite all the sanctions.
7,000 containers shipped from N Korea to Russia!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68933778
Pfft, the 3 F16s will sort that out.

Western governments need to pull their finger out

IanH755

1,869 posts

121 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
Cheib said:
martynr said:
ConnectionError said:
martynr said:
borcy said:
https://unrollnow.com/status/1786181552210149828

Thread about issues around Russian manpower
Absolute bs.
Explain in more detail?
Their population is over 140mil. The narative is being pushed that they are low, but they keep using meat at high rates and there is no shortage in attacks.
The Kremlin has so far been fairly careful about where it has been recruiting/conscripting from….it has been avoiding the major cities. At some point they are going to have to start tapping in to those population centres, If coffins start heading back to Moscow/St Petersburg in meaningful numbers it changes the narrative.

I guess sitting here that doesn’t sound that meaningful but the Kremlin is clearly concerned about it.
The concern is that this will be over (one way or another) BEFORE Russia hits this mythical "number of deaths" which will suddenly, almost magically, change everything about how Russia has been fighting for the past 100+ years.

There is no magic number, there is no mythical "Oh but as soon as St Petersburg?Moscow starts seeing death they'll stop" - Russia is doing what Russia always does and wanting to pretend that there is some line in the sand on casualty numbers just doesn't recognise the reality of the situation, and to be blunt comes across in the same vein as "once they get Javlin/NLAW - once they get HIMARS - once they get StormShadow - Once they get Challenger 2/Abrams - once they get ATACMS - once they get F-16's" etc etc as being wishful hoping for a single thing that will suddenly win the war, rather than something based on reality where this will only be won/lost based on Putin and what he wants, absolutely nothing else will change that.


Cheib

23,304 posts

176 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
IanH755 said:
The concern is that this will be over (one way or another) BEFORE Russia hits this mythical "number of deaths" which will suddenly, almost magically, change everything about how Russia has been fighting for the past 100+ years.

There is no magic number, there is no mythical "Oh but as soon as St Petersburg?Moscow starts seeing death they'll stop" - Russia is doing what Russia always does and wanting to pretend that there is some line in the sand on casualty numbers just doesn't recognise the reality of the situation, and to be blunt comes across in the same vein as "once they get Javlin/NLAW - once they get HIMARS - once they get StormShadow - Once they get Challenger 2/Abrams - once they get ATACMS - once they get F-16's" etc etc as being wishful hoping for a single thing that will suddenly win the war, rather than something based on reality where this will only be won/lost based on Putin and what he wants, absolutely nothing else will change that.
Agree with that. I think that is why Crimea is absolutely pivotal

If Ukraine can make life difficult for the Russians in Crimea I think that then makes things more difficult for Putin. If that bridge goes down and Ukraine can in any meaningful way exert pressure on the land bridge that surely has to be unsettling ? 2 million “Russian” civilians on a piece of territory that will become quite difficult to keep supplied.

CoolHands

18,752 posts

196 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
So the sanctions basically don’t work. North Korea can get whatever it needs which then sells to Russia. Russia sells all its goods to most of the world’s countries via various means, albeit at reduced market rate as other countries squeeze a better deal. Russian oligarchs still have all their wealth and property in safe countries such as, err uk.

We should be more proactive in giving Ukraine what it needs and stop trying to mildly appease / not escalate.

RichFN2

3,412 posts

180 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
Cheib said:
IanH755 said:
The concern is that this will be over (one way or another) BEFORE Russia hits this mythical "number of deaths" which will suddenly, almost magically, change everything about how Russia has been fighting for the past 100+ years.

There is no magic number, there is no mythical "Oh but as soon as St Petersburg?Moscow starts seeing death they'll stop" - Russia is doing what Russia always does and wanting to pretend that there is some line in the sand on casualty numbers just doesn't recognise the reality of the situation, and to be blunt comes across in the same vein as "once they get Javlin/NLAW - once they get HIMARS - once they get StormShadow - Once they get Challenger 2/Abrams - once they get ATACMS - once they get F-16's" etc etc as being wishful hoping for a single thing that will suddenly win the war, rather than something based on reality where this will only be won/lost based on Putin and what he wants, absolutely nothing else will change that.
Agree with that. I think that is why Crimea is absolutely pivotal

If Ukraine can make life difficult for the Russians in Crimea I think that then makes things more difficult for Putin. If that bridge goes down and Ukraine can in any meaningful way exert pressure on the land bridge that surely has to be unsettling ? 2 million “Russian” civilians on a piece of territory that will become quite difficult to keep supplied.
Unfortunately Putin has already thought about that scenario, currently Russia is building a new railway from Rostov to Crimea via occupied territories.

fourstardan

4,354 posts

145 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
Bright Halo said:
This is an interesting and scary article about N Korea’s manufacture and supply of missiles into Russia.
Missiles manufactured using American components despite all the sanctions.
7,000 containers shipped from N Korea to Russia!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-68933778
I read this earlier, Cold War stuff in the modern era.

Surely they have the bloody intelligence in the US to know North Korea is buying microchips. Why they are buying from the US is interesting, surely Taiwan is an easier smuggle.

loafer123

15,455 posts

216 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
RichFN2 said:
Unfortunately Putin has already thought about that scenario, currently Russia is building a new railway from Rostov to Crimea via occupied territories.
Pretty easy to sever that on a regular basis, though.

pinchmeimdreamin

9,974 posts

219 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
loafer123 said:
RichFN2 said:
Unfortunately Putin has already thought about that scenario, currently Russia is building a new railway from Rostov to Crimea via occupied territories.
Pretty easy to sever that on a regular basis, though.
And how exactly does that help if they drop the bridge ?

BikeBikeBIke

8,200 posts

116 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
CoolHands said:
So the sanctions basically don’t work.
....and that is why the Russia economy is so rosy today....

...Oh wait...

Cheib

23,304 posts

176 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
pinchmeimdreamin said:
loafer123 said:
RichFN2 said:
Unfortunately Putin has already thought about that scenario, currently Russia is building a new railway from Rostov to Crimea via occupied territories.
Pretty easy to sever that on a regular basis, though.
And how exactly does that help if they drop the bridge ?
The new railway line runs along the land bridge.

The piece of land that connects Crimea to the rest of Ukraine is going to present issues for both sides if/when it becomes contested. There’s a lot of water/marshland there with only a few bridges/roads that run across it. It will make it very difficult for Ukraine to attack but if your aim is to cut Crimea off it also makes it relatively easy for them to make those few transport links very difficult to use. I think they’ve have already taken out one of the bridges out with a Stormshadow which I am sure has been repaired by now.







TheJimi

25,040 posts

244 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
BikeBikeBIke said:
CoolHands said:
So the sanctions basically don’t work.
....and that is why the Russia economy is so rosy today....

...Oh wait...
That statement was made in a particular context.

Quoting someone out of context isn't helpful.



BikeBikeBIke

8,200 posts

116 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
TheJimi said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
CoolHands said:
So the sanctions basically don’t work.
....and that is why the Russia economy is so rosy today....

...Oh wait...
That statement was made in a particular context.
?

macron

9,928 posts

167 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
IanH755 said:
The concern is that this will be over (one way or another) BEFORE Russia hits this mythical "number of deaths" which will suddenly, almost magically, change everything about how Russia has been fighting for the past 100+ years.

There is no magic number, there is no mythical "Oh but as soon as St Petersburg?Moscow starts seeing death they'll stop" - Russia is doing what Russia always does and wanting to pretend that there is some line in the sand on casualty numbers just doesn't recognise the reality of the situation, and to be blunt comes across in the same vein as "once they get Javlin/NLAW - once they get HIMARS - once they get StormShadow - Once they get Challenger 2/Abrams - once they get ATACMS - once they get F-16's" etc etc as being wishful hoping for a single thing that will suddenly win the war, rather than something based on reality where this will only be won/lost based on Putin and what he wants, absolutely nothing else will change that.
^ this. And they keep importing cheap meat of no consequence to them or the Russian public in any way, shape or form. Find deprived, ill educated nation, use chump change (if you actually do ever pay them) to triangulate the snipers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68949298

BikeBikeBIke

8,200 posts

116 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
macron said:
IanH755 said:
The concern is that this will be over (one way or another) BEFORE Russia hits this mythical "number of deaths" which will suddenly, almost magically, change everything about how Russia has been fighting for the past 100+ years.

There is no magic number, there is no mythical "Oh but as soon as St Petersburg?Moscow starts seeing death they'll stop" - Russia is doing what Russia always does and wanting to pretend that there is some line in the sand on casualty numbers just doesn't recognise the reality of the situation, and to be blunt comes across in the same vein as "once they get Javlin/NLAW - once they get HIMARS - once they get StormShadow - Once they get Challenger 2/Abrams - once they get ATACMS - once they get F-16's" etc etc as being wishful hoping for a single thing that will suddenly win the war, rather than something based on reality where this will only be won/lost based on Putin and what he wants, absolutely nothing else will change that.
^ this. And they keep importing cheap meat of no consequence to them or the Russian public in any way, shape or form. Find deprived, ill educated nation, use chump change (if you actually do ever pay them) to triangulate the snipers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68949298
...and I fear the first few hundred thousand were press ganged Ukranians. frown

borcy

3,036 posts

57 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
https://youtu.be/cgJFPJ64aR0

Footage of a small unit in a Ukrainian village.

Wacky Racer

38,237 posts

248 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all

CT05 Nose Cone

25,007 posts

228 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
borcy said:
https://youtu.be/cgJFPJ64aR0

Footage of a small unit in a Ukrainian village.
That was a seriously intense video, amazing bravery from the soldiers and reporters.

RichFN2

3,412 posts

180 months

Sunday 5th May
quotequote all
CT05 Nose Cone said:
borcy said:
https://youtu.be/cgJFPJ64aR0

Footage of a small unit in a Ukrainian village.
That was a seriously intense video, amazing bravery from the soldiers and reporters.
+1

I have seen some of their videos on telegram before but I have now subscribed to their YouTube channel.

Intense and depressing at the same time, I suspect that video represents most of the frontline for Ukraine.