Reform UK - A symptom of all that is wrong?
Discussion
bad company said:
Dave200 said:
Go back and look at the data I posted from a representative survey of 14,000 voters. The two places that Reform over index are among the over-60s and those without higher level education. That's not a suggestion, it's actual data.
Data from where exactly? Statistics can be made to show anything, we all know that. Who did they ask? Where and when they conduct the survey?Don’t get me wrong, Labour will win the GE and the Conservatives only have themselves to blame. Just don’t fool yourself by writing off Reform voters as idiots.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Apparently they asked 14k people out of a population of nearly 68 million. No, I don’t have confidence in such surveys. I seem to recall them predicting a strong remain vote in the Brexit referendum.I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Edited by bad company on Tuesday 30th April 08:59
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
It’s par for the course, the sort who get sucked into Ponzi schemes. I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
The most sinister aspect of this limited company is the disproportionate amount of media coverage they receive relative to their projected share of the votes. Farage and Tice have their own shows on GBeebies, bankrolled by hedge fund billionaire Paul Marshall and Legatum, a Dubai based investment fund found by a Kiwi billionaire.
A closer inspection of who is bankrolling Reform Ltd reveals some less than savoury characters like Jeremy Hosking, who bankrolls Laurence Fox and George Farmer, previously CEO of far right platform Parler and former chair of far right group Turning Point. To anyone with more than a passing interest in politics it’s abundantly clear what Reform Ltd is really about, Farage and Tice are a front to broaden the party’s appeal by playing on the vulnerabilities of people who generally feel left behind, convincing them that ‘wanting their country back’ is actually a thing.
Reform Ltd may breach 15% this time, whether they can win a seat is another matter, but whatever guise they adopt, from UKIP to Brexit party to Reform, the far right are building a solid base in this country and for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it.
bad company said:
Apparently they asked 14k people out of a population of nearly 68 million.
You keep railing against Dave calling Reform guys idiots (actually he said less educated, in fact only you said idiots) then you come out with this. Do you really believe a polling company will ask the entire population their views? Is that really where your cognitive process is at?You need to at the very least, Google how polling works. Put it this way, you don't need to eat an entire apple to work out if it tastes good, a bite will tell you.
bad company said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Apparently they asked 14k people out of a population of nearly 68 million. I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
smn159 said:
bad company said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Apparently they asked 14k people out of a population of nearly 68 million. I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
I think it's one of those "there will be some room for error but I wouldn't expect a miracle".
I'm not convinced Labours current poll lead will play out in a General Election any more than I'm convinced that come the day people will all pop their cross in the Reform box knowing it's essentially a wasted vote.
I'm not convinced Labours current poll lead will play out in a General Election any more than I'm convinced that come the day people will all pop their cross in the Reform box knowing it's essentially a wasted vote.
Blue62 said:
The most sinister aspect of this limited company is the disproportionate amount of media coverage they receive relative to their projected share of the votes.
There's previous form for that. Farage had the record for the most QT appearances and UKIP had a slot (usually taken by Farage) on nearly a quarter of QT episodes. Out of all proportion to their national parliamentary results or their level of support. On the matter of Reform's voter base demographic, I think it's interesting how it's a sensitive subject with so many Reform supporters here. While it's slightly unfair to lump 'low education level' in there (education level strongly correlates against age due to the changes in college/university attendance through the decades, and we should all know that education and intelligence are not the same) I don't know why the party's supporters don't just own the fact:
"Yes, loads of our support comes from old people who left school at 15 or 16 and worked their lives in labour, trade or business. And they don't like what's happened over the past 40 years to the country they grew up in, worked for and have to pass on to their families. What of it?"
Instead of trying to attack the data or the whole concept of polling or statistical sampling.
You don't find Labour or the Greens heming and hawing about much of their support being from young people and those on lower-than-average incomes. They accept that that's their constituency and take the support as vindication of their stance - people see their ideas as optimism for the future.
Maybe it's because embracing their typical voter demographic wouldn't gel with Reform's attempts to appear as an anti-establishment party, or would invite questions about exactly how 'left behind' and 'unheard' a lot of these well-pensioned property-owning retirees are. Or about what changes to their country they want to Reverse (a more accurate name than Reform, perhaps?).
bad company said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Apparently they asked 14k people out of a population of nearly 68 million. No, I don’t have confidence in such surveys. I seem to recall them predicting a strong remain vote in the Brexit referendum.I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Edited by bad company on Tuesday 30th April 08:59
As someone who actually works with statistics on a daily basis, rather than someone who makes up his own, I can tell you that a 14,000 sample size against a population of 68m will give you a roughly 1% margin of error in your results. That poll is very statistically robust.
You're welcome to make up your own facts, but you can't make up how statistical significance and confidence intervals work.
Dave200 said:
bad company said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Apparently they asked 14k people out of a population of nearly 68 million. No, I don’t have confidence in such surveys. I seem to recall them predicting a strong remain vote in the Brexit referendum.I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Edited by bad company on Tuesday 30th April 08:59
As someone who actually works with statistics on a daily basis, rather than someone who makes up his own, I can tell you that a 14,000 sample size against a population of 68m will give you a roughly 1% margin of error in your results. That poll is very statistically robust.
You're welcome to make up your own facts, but you can't make up how statistical significance and confidence intervals work.
2xChevrons said:
Blue62 said:
The most sinister aspect of this limited company is the disproportionate amount of media coverage they receive relative to their projected share of the votes.
There's previous form for that. Farage had the record for the most QT appearances and UKIP had a slot (usually taken by Farage) on nearly a quarter of QT episodes. Out of all proportion to their national parliamentary results or their level of support. On the matter of Reform's voter base demographic, I think it's interesting how it's a sensitive subject with so many Reform supporters here. While it's slightly unfair to lump 'low education level' in there (education level strongly correlates against age due to the changes in college/university attendance through the decades, and we should all know that education and intelligence are not the same) I don't know why the party's supporters don't just own the fact:
"Yes, loads of our support comes from old people who left school at 15 or 16 and worked their lives in labour, trade or business. And they don't like what's happened over the past 40 years to the country they grew up in, worked for and have to pass on to their families. What of it?"
Instead of trying to attack the data or the whole concept of polling or statistical sampling.
You don't find Labour or the Greens heming and hawing about much of their support being from young people and those on lower-than-average incomes. They accept that that's their constituency and take the support as vindication of their stance - people see their ideas as optimism for the future.
Maybe it's because embracing their typical voter demographic wouldn't gel with Reform's attempts to appear as an anti-establishment party, or would invite questions about exactly how 'left behind' and 'unheard' a lot of these well-pensioned property-owning retirees are. Or about what changes to their country they want to Reverse (a more accurate name than Reform, perhaps?).
Edited by Dave200 on Tuesday 30th April 09:32
lauda said:
Dave200 said:
bad company said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Apparently they asked 14k people out of a population of nearly 68 million. No, I don’t have confidence in such surveys. I seem to recall them predicting a strong remain vote in the Brexit referendum.I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
Edited by bad company on Tuesday 30th April 08:59
As someone who actually works with statistics on a daily basis, rather than someone who makes up his own, I can tell you that a 14,000 sample size against a population of 68m will give you a roughly 1% margin of error in your results. That poll is very statistically robust.
You're welcome to make up your own facts, but you can't make up how statistical significance and confidence intervals work.
Dave200 said:
In which case the margin for error in those numbers is less than 1%. I'm sure the alternative fact crowd will be along to try and dispute that shortly.
Also they forget that margins of error cut both ways... There could be less support for Reform than indicated by the polls. I think that is more likely.
I can't wait to see where the share of Reform voters reside after the election. I'll be able to see where my Eastern European wife isn't welcome and avoid.
I mean, she's been here since 2008, eligible for a British passport, has a Masters in English, high rate PAYE tax payer, but yeah send her back, 62 year old retired John from Andover thinks she's the problem and definitely is the reason his English ale has gone up in price at the White Hart.
I mean, she's been here since 2008, eligible for a British passport, has a Masters in English, high rate PAYE tax payer, but yeah send her back, 62 year old retired John from Andover thinks she's the problem and definitely is the reason his English ale has gone up in price at the White Hart.
Dave200 said:
The funny thing for me is that Reform seem keen to position themselves as the party of the working man/woman, when the opposite is true. Labour is the most popular party by an absolute country mile across all socio-economic groups, and it's not even close. Reform is a party run by a Dulwich College banker and his mate the silver-spoon property developer, who are tricking the old and less educated into thinking they care about them.
That was even the case in Labour's wipeout in the last election. If you were in full-time work, under 55 and on less than something like £55k/year you were more likely to vote Labour (even 2019 Labour) than any other party. The government was delivered by in-work over-55s and the retired, who not only turned out in force but were extremely cohesive in voting Conservative.Edited by Dave200 on Tuesday 30th April 09:32
And that's fine - a vote is a vote, and if everyone turned out at the levels of the pensioners (especially the young) then politics would be very different.
But it does rather make a mockery of the idea that the Conservative majority (and the apparent rejection of the Labour offering) was some groundswell of 'ordinary working people'. And that's what we've seen play out in how the Conservatives have handled things in power; not being a party of national government or furthering the interests of those in work or the ambitions of those wanting to get into business (which was conventionally their power base) but being a wish-fulfilment service for retirees and the very rich, both groups being largely socially and economically isolated from those of us in the "PAYE-9-to-5" or "squeezed-six-figure-income-and-still-can't-find-a-GP-appointment" worlds.
bad company said:
What a sad & delusional world you seem to live in.
Like many other ‘Remoaners’ you can’t get your head around the majority voting for Brexit and many of those intending to vote Reform.
Brexit is done and gone.Like many other ‘Remoaners’ you can’t get your head around the majority voting for Brexit and many of those intending to vote Reform.
I don't get the need to revisit that with all the stuff Reform seem to want to campaign on.
Freedom of Movement to/from the EU is now stopped. Immigration is controlled. Job done.
(obviously there's some illegal immigration, but this is only about 5% of the total, so is that really a big deal?
pb8g09 said:
I can't wait to see where the share of Reform voters reside after the election. I'll be able to see where my Eastern European wife isn't welcome and avoid.
I mean, she's been here since 2008, eligible for a British passport, has a Masters in English, high rate PAYE tax payer, but yeah send her back, 62 year old retired John from Andover thinks she's the problem and definitely is the reason his English ale has gone up in price at the White Hart.
Where in any Reform literature or policy did you find any of that? I mean, she's been here since 2008, eligible for a British passport, has a Masters in English, high rate PAYE tax payer, but yeah send her back, 62 year old retired John from Andover thinks she's the problem and definitely is the reason his English ale has gone up in price at the White Hart.
Ridiculous made up rhetoric.
pb8g09 said:
I can't wait to see where the share of Reform voters reside after the election. I'll be able to see where my Eastern European wife isn't welcome and avoid.
I mean, she's been here since 2008, eligible for a British passport, has a Masters in English, high rate PAYE tax payer, but yeah send her back, 62 year old retired John from Andover thinks she's the problem and definitely is the reason his English ale has gone up in price at the White Hart.
He won't be going to the White Hart now, it's been taken over by the namby pamby Millenial who has started offering meals resulting in families and children running around the bar now. They're even offering stuff like IPA's and sour beers. Yet another sign of how this country is going to the dogs. I mean, she's been here since 2008, eligible for a British passport, has a Masters in English, high rate PAYE tax payer, but yeah send her back, 62 year old retired John from Andover thinks she's the problem and definitely is the reason his English ale has gone up in price at the White Hart.
oyster said:
Brexit is done and gone.
I don't get the need to revisit that with all the stuff Reform seem to want to campaign on.
Freedom of Movement to/from the EU is now stopped. Immigration is controlled. Job done.
(obviously there's some illegal immigration, but this is only about 5% of the total, so is that really a big deal?
Of course it's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things; it's mainly an issue because we choose not to invest in processing people quickly - but charlatans like Farage and Tice must always have a bogeyman to point at to instil the right level of fear into those with limited critical thinking skills.I don't get the need to revisit that with all the stuff Reform seem to want to campaign on.
Freedom of Movement to/from the EU is now stopped. Immigration is controlled. Job done.
(obviously there's some illegal immigration, but this is only about 5% of the total, so is that really a big deal?
It was 'swarms' of Europeans before, now it's people coming across on boats. If that ever gets solved it will be someone else.
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