Reform UK - A symptom of all that is wrong?
Discussion
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hstewie said:
hstewie said: They'll have changed name in a "couple of Parliaments" Cranked.
It'll be the next grift.
I don't know about that, I do think they will hang around for a while like the Greens.It'll be the next grift.
It's quite a bit different to UKIP who were founded as a Thatcherite party with most members in the bottom right corner of the political compass but later attracted a bunch of people from the top left, causing a big split when the one thing binding them together (campaigning for Brexit) became much more real after the referendum.
The Brexit Party was founded on the same lines but by that point the Thatcherites could get Brexit from the Tories, so went back and left the authoritarian types to it.
The name change to Reform was just accounting for the change in circumstances after we left the EU IMO.
Something interesting on Times Radio's latest Exit Interview (with Caroline Lucas) was that she thought UKIP only had the sway they did because the Conservatives were in office so they had to protect their outer flank, whereas the Greens were chipping away at Labour in opposition so she thinks the roles will be reversed if Labour win the election with Reform not having much point until the Conservatives are back in government but the Greens holding a lot more influence.
I see the support going towards Reform as democracy in action.
Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
ntiz said:
I see the support going towards Reform as democracy in action.
Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
If the Cons approach the next GE by moving further on to Reform territory then they are doomed - there just aren’t enough votes in the far right end of the political spectrum (fortunately). They need to become a centre/right one nation party again to be electable. Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
Killboy said:
crankedup5 said:
I’m delighted to see how much Reform U.K. is generating interest but I do acknowledge that as a new political party is will take a couple of Parliaments to develop and mature.
Do you think they have the right leadership in place to make this happen?smn159 said:
There is no evidence whatsoever that Reform will do what UKIP failed to do and go much beyond that support base. They are pretty much seen as the anti-foreigner party and their support is from those who share that view. The vast majority of the country do not.
A right wing party is bound to attract a few unwelcome racists. That doesn’t make the majority of their supporters racists.Dave200 said:
crankedup5 said:
Dave200 said:
crankedup5 said:
Blue62 said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
It’s par for the course, the sort who get sucked into Ponzi schemes. I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
The most sinister aspect of this limited company is the disproportionate amount of media coverage they receive relative to their projected share of the votes. Farage and Tice have their own shows on GBeebies, bankrolled by hedge fund billionaire Paul Marshall and Legatum, a Dubai based investment fund found by a Kiwi billionaire.
A closer inspection of who is bankrolling Reform Ltd reveals some less than savoury characters like Jeremy Hosking, who bankrolls Laurence Fox and George Farmer, previously CEO of far right platform Parler and former chair of far right group Turning Point. To anyone with more than a passing interest in politics it’s abundantly clear what Reform Ltd is really about, Farage and Tice are a front to broaden the party’s appeal by playing on the vulnerabilities of people who generally feel left behind, convincing them that ‘wanting their country back’ is actually a thing.
Reform Ltd may breach 15% this time, whether they can win a seat is another matter, but whatever guise they adopt, from UKIP to Brexit party to Reform, the far right are building a solid base in this country and for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it.
You mention ‘for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it’. You are part of the problem by wishing to see the election of one of the two mainstream parties which has brought about disillusioned voters to the surface. You even express your view as to why this is the reaction from a sector of the electorate.
I’m pleased to see some acknowledgement that at long last my belief in Reform U.K. will be building a solid platform from which they will develop and mature into a credible third party. Maybe even remove the Tory party and become the opposition within a couple of Parliaments.
I’m delighted to see how much Reform U.K. is generating interest but I do acknowledge that as a new political party is will take a couple of Parliaments to develop and mature. Of course if Reform U.K. cannot develop and mature with wider policy proposals with a wider appeal they will rumble along with the other minority parties. It’s how democracy works.
Yes the Greens in particular are a political party with an even narrower main agenda which does only appeal to a small segment of the electorate.
The Lib Dem’s do not appeal, imo, to a broader section of the electorate because of the same reasons attached to the Greens, limited appeal due to limited policy proposals.
valiant said:
The thing is is that they will only attract so many to their cause. Same with the Greens. There is a limit on who they'll attract and won't go beyond that.
Said before but Reform are at the zenith of what they can achieve right now. They'll never really get beyond 15% and after the election will probably start heamorgering supporters especially if the Tories become electable once again.
They'll become stagnant and a home for nutters like UKIP before them and Farage will now doubt move onto the next grift. Sad thing is that their current supporters won't see it and won't even admit to be taken for a ride.
If any new political party emerges and they place pressure upon established parties by way of drawing the electorate away from established parties, that’s good. Perhaps a change from the establishment that takes account of more of the electorate pov is beneficial.Said before but Reform are at the zenith of what they can achieve right now. They'll never really get beyond 15% and after the election will probably start heamorgering supporters especially if the Tories become electable once again.
They'll become stagnant and a home for nutters like UKIP before them and Farage will now doubt move onto the next grift. Sad thing is that their current supporters won't see it and won't even admit to be taken for a ride.
Example of this is how Labour have morphed closer to Conservative values away from the Corbyn
momentum lefti politics.
Killboy said:
Paging through my Mayor of London and London Assembly Elections booklet here we have the Reform London's pitch.
We've been told how ULEZ is London's biggest issue, so it would be interesting to see what support Reform gets.
What do we think? 20%? 50% 80%?
these policies are physically not possible. We've been told how ULEZ is London's biggest issue, so it would be interesting to see what support Reform gets.
What do we think? 20%? 50% 80%?
i suspect support will be under 5%. most of the reform gammon are outside london and cant vote.
NRS said:
If you look at demographics it's likely that the Greens will continue growing, and Reform will decrease. Younger people tend to vote more on environmental issues, and Reform is typically supported by older voters who will die off. Reform has basically formed because the Conservatives moved more to the left because that is the space they can be elected in. It makes space for a more Thatcher type Conservative party, but that will never develop the votes to become a party of significant power as it doesn't appeal to nearly enough of the younger people will are starting to gain more voting power as the Boomers die off slowly. It's a bit of a problem in a way, currently Labour and the Conservatives are too close now and we need some variation, but it's going to be a move to the left that is the future, rather than to appeal to a group that will decrease in voting power going forward.
I am not sure there is a "move to the left" as such rather than a general dissatisfaction with the status quo and the governing agenda which is somewhat different.There is also no guarantee that right wing "populist" parties only appeal to the old. In France the support for the National Rally skews more toward the young.
As far as I can see people have become dissatisfied with falling living standards, and included within that cost of property and energy and anything that has increased in price due to the these factors. There are cultural factors as well of course but that is a big part of it.
Labour are one beneficiary of that mood, but then so are Reform. Those giving up on all of the above are also a high share of the 2019 Tory vote.
So will Labour offer any fundamental change to those dissatisfied, or will they offer the same agenda redoubled?.
Time will tell, but it is only FPTP that is giving the Tories any hope of long term survival in my view, and that can change, just as it did for the old Liberal party.
z4RRSchris said:
Killboy said:
Paging through my Mayor of London and London Assembly Elections booklet here we have the Reform London's pitch.
We've been told how ULEZ is London's biggest issue, so it would be interesting to see what support Reform gets.
What do we think? 20%? 50% 80%?
these policies are physically not possible. We've been told how ULEZ is London's biggest issue, so it would be interesting to see what support Reform gets.
What do we think? 20%? 50% 80%?
i suspect support will be under 5%. most of the reform gammon are outside london and cant vote.
NRS said:
crankedup5 said:
Dave200 said:
crankedup5 said:
Blue62 said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
It’s par for the course, the sort who get sucked into Ponzi schemes. I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
The most sinister aspect of this limited company is the disproportionate amount of media coverage they receive relative to their projected share of the votes. Farage and Tice have their own shows on GBeebies, bankrolled by hedge fund billionaire Paul Marshall and Legatum, a Dubai based investment fund found by a Kiwi billionaire.
A closer inspection of who is bankrolling Reform Ltd reveals some less than savoury characters like Jeremy Hosking, who bankrolls Laurence Fox and George Farmer, previously CEO of far right platform Parler and former chair of far right group Turning Point. To anyone with more than a passing interest in politics it’s abundantly clear what Reform Ltd is really about, Farage and Tice are a front to broaden the party’s appeal by playing on the vulnerabilities of people who generally feel left behind, convincing them that ‘wanting their country back’ is actually a thing.
Reform Ltd may breach 15% this time, whether they can win a seat is another matter, but whatever guise they adopt, from UKIP to Brexit party to Reform, the far right are building a solid base in this country and for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it.
You mention ‘for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it’. You are part of the problem by wishing to see the election of one of the two mainstream parties which has brought about disillusioned voters to the surface. You even express your view as to why this is the reaction from a sector of the electorate.
I’m pleased to see some acknowledgement that at long last my belief in Reform U.K. will be building a solid platform from which they will develop and mature into a credible third party. Maybe even remove the Tory party and become the opposition within a couple of Parliaments.
I’m delighted to see how much Reform U.K. is generating interest but I do acknowledge that as a new political party is will take a couple of Parliaments to develop and mature. Of course if Reform U.K. cannot develop and mature with wider policy proposals with a wider appeal they will rumble along with the other minority parties. It’s how democracy works.
Yes the Greens in particular are a political party with an even narrower main agenda which does only appeal to a small segment of the electorate.
The Lib Dem’s do not appeal, imo, to a broader section of the electorate because of the same reasons attached to the Greens, limited appeal due to limited policy proposals.
However you have not accounted for a political parties that could develop into other policy areas. Also talk of Greens and Green policies is becoming more mainstream across all parties and I would expect that trend to continue, as you suggest. But they are simply a mouthpiece atm.
Also I agree that Labour/Tory parties current policy offerings are virtually the same.This is not a good thing for the Country in general, we need more progressive radical ideas if only for
debate and consideration.
I do not agree that ‘a move to the left’ is the future direction of travel, I see nothing in policy proposals that underpins that assumption. The situation is that we are undergoing major Global changes and nobody knows how these changes will affect future politics. Only strong political leadership will guide us through to future prosperity and health, I do not see that in either of our two major Parties.
ntiz said:
I see the support going towards Reform as democracy in action.
Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
Agreed, more opposition is not a bad motivator.Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
JagLover said:
NRS said:
If you look at demographics it's likely that the Greens will continue growing, and Reform will decrease. Younger people tend to vote more on environmental issues, and Reform is typically supported by older voters who will die off. Reform has basically formed because the Conservatives moved more to the left because that is the space they can be elected in. It makes space for a more Thatcher type Conservative party, but that will never develop the votes to become a party of significant power as it doesn't appeal to nearly enough of the younger people will are starting to gain more voting power as the Boomers die off slowly. It's a bit of a problem in a way, currently Labour and the Conservatives are too close now and we need some variation, but it's going to be a move to the left that is the future, rather than to appeal to a group that will decrease in voting power going forward.
I am not sure there is a "move to the left" as such rather than a general dissatisfaction with the status quo and the governing agenda which is somewhat different.There is also no guarantee that right wing "populist" parties only appeal to the old. In France the support for the National Rally skews more toward the young.
As far as I can see people have become dissatisfied with falling living standards, and included within that cost of property and energy and anything that has increased in price due to the these factors. There are cultural factors as well of course but that is a big part of it.
Labour are one beneficiary of that mood, but then so are Reform. Those giving up on all of the above are also a high share of the 2019 Tory vote.
So will Labour offer any fundamental change to those dissatisfied, or will they offer the same agenda redoubled?.
Time will tell, but it is only FPTP that is giving the Tories any hope of long term survival in my view, and that can change, just as it did for the old Liberal party.
I think the older people see stuff more as a cultural war and also the more free market style policies they had in their working life and have got to the more right. Those people also grow up with a heavily damaged economy from when the unions were "too strong", so view the left as bad.
The young from what I see of people my age and friends of siblings etc are more about financially going left as they have grown up with basically no real wage increases after inflation, house prices out of each for many and so on. Taxes are high, but that is for workers. The free market policies have gone too far the other way and damaged the rewards of working hard, and they don't have the stuff like buying council houses to help offset that. There is a very clear push with these people to tax wealth more to pay for the debt/pensions/healthcare. At the same time they also very much have a focus on green policies, often (IMO) ones which don't match up with their financial dreams, but having grown up their whole lives with it then it's a big factor in their voting. There will be some who vote more right based on the cultural wars, but in general my experience matches with the poles that show the young are getting more of a voice (increased voting participation) and their votes matter more as slowly the Boomers start dying meaning demographics balance up a bit more.
crankedup5 said:
I agree to a point with your basis of argument if we take it as a moment in time without major developments affecting the current status quo.
However you have not accounted for a political parties that could develop into other policy areas. Also talk of Greens and Green policies is becoming more mainstream across all parties and I would expect that trend to continue, as you suggest. But they are simply a mouthpiece atm.
Also I agree that Labour/Tory parties current policy offerings are virtually the same.This is not a good thing for the Country in general, we need more progressive radical ideas if only for
debate and consideration.
I do not agree that ‘a move to the left’ is the future direction of travel, I see nothing in policy proposals that underpins that assumption. The situation is that we are undergoing major Global changes and nobody knows how these changes will affect future politics. Only strong political leadership will guide us through to future prosperity and health, I do not see that in either of our two major Parties.
A lot of what guides the government isn't them coming up with the best policies, it's about what appears to the voters so they can be voted into power. So I see a move to the left as there is a change in voting patterns as some younger people get old enough to vote (and actually vote) and others die off, driven by the stuff I mentioned above. However you have not accounted for a political parties that could develop into other policy areas. Also talk of Greens and Green policies is becoming more mainstream across all parties and I would expect that trend to continue, as you suggest. But they are simply a mouthpiece atm.
Also I agree that Labour/Tory parties current policy offerings are virtually the same.This is not a good thing for the Country in general, we need more progressive radical ideas if only for
debate and consideration.
I do not agree that ‘a move to the left’ is the future direction of travel, I see nothing in policy proposals that underpins that assumption. The situation is that we are undergoing major Global changes and nobody knows how these changes will affect future politics. Only strong political leadership will guide us through to future prosperity and health, I do not see that in either of our two major Parties.
Edited by NRS on Tuesday 30th April 15:26
NRS said:
The young from what I see of people my age and friends of siblings etc are more about financially going left as they have grown up with basically no real wage increases after inflation, house prices out of each for many and so on. Taxes are high, but that is for workers. The free market policies have gone too far the other way and damaged the rewards of working hard, and they don't have the stuff like buying council houses to help offset that. There is a very clear push with these people to tax wealth more to pay for the debt/pensions/healthcare. At the same time they also very much have a focus on green policies, often (IMO) ones which don't match up with their financial dreams, but having grown up their whole lives with it then it's a big factor in their voting. There will be some who vote more right based on the cultural wars, but in general my experience matches with the poles that show the young are getting more of a voice (increased voting participation) and their votes matter more as slowly the Boomers start dying meaning demographics balance up a bit more.
And if the only thing that has changed in 5/9 years of Labour government is that housing and energy costs have gone up even further? and that taxes are a bit higher?. Wealth taxes are unlikely as anything more than a token. Green policies are popular until people start having to pay a significant cost for them, and then polling shows mixed support and opposition.
So as I said it is more dissatisfaction with the agenda, and in countries with governments similar to the Labour party under Starmer that dissatisfaction is expressed in different ways.
NRS said:
JagLover said:
NRS said:
If you look at demographics it's likely that the Greens will continue growing, and Reform will decrease. Younger people tend to vote more on environmental issues, and Reform is typically supported by older voters who will die off. Reform has basically formed because the Conservatives moved more to the left because that is the space they can be elected in. It makes space for a more Thatcher type Conservative party, but that will never develop the votes to become a party of significant power as it doesn't appeal to nearly enough of the younger people will are starting to gain more voting power as the Boomers die off slowly. It's a bit of a problem in a way, currently Labour and the Conservatives are too close now and we need some variation, but it's going to be a move to the left that is the future, rather than to appeal to a group that will decrease in voting power going forward.
I am not sure there is a "move to the left" as such rather than a general dissatisfaction with the status quo and the governing agenda which is somewhat different.There is also no guarantee that right wing "populist" parties only appeal to the old. In France the support for the National Rally skews more toward the young.
As far as I can see people have become dissatisfied with falling living standards, and included within that cost of property and energy and anything that has increased in price due to the these factors. There are cultural factors as well of course but that is a big part of it.
Labour are one beneficiary of that mood, but then so are Reform. Those giving up on all of the above are also a high share of the 2019 Tory vote.
So will Labour offer any fundamental change to those dissatisfied, or will they offer the same agenda redoubled?.
Time will tell, but it is only FPTP that is giving the Tories any hope of long term survival in my view, and that can change, just as it did for the old Liberal party.
I think the older people see stuff more as a cultural war and also the more free market style policies they had in their working life and have got to the more right. Those people also grow up with a heavily damaged economy from when the unions were "too strong", so view the left as bad.
The young from what I see of people my age and friends of siblings etc are more about financially going left as they have grown up with basically no real wage increases after inflation, house prices out of each for many and so on. Taxes are high, but that is for workers. The free market policies have gone too far the other way and damaged the rewards of working hard, and they don't have the stuff like buying council houses to help offset that. There is a very clear push with these people to tax wealth more to pay for the debt/pensions/healthcare. At the same time they also very much have a focus on green policies, often (IMO) ones which don't match up with their financial dreams, but having grown up their whole lives with it then it's a big factor in their voting. There will be some who vote more right based on the cultural wars, but in general my experience matches with the poles that show the young are getting more of a voice (increased voting participation) and their votes matter more as slowly the Boomers start dying meaning demographics balance up a bit more.
crankedup5 said:
I agree to a point with your basis of argument if we take it as a moment in time without major developments affecting the current status quo.
However you have not accounted for a political parties that could develop into other policy areas. Also talk of Greens and Green policies is becoming more mainstream across all parties and I would expect that trend to continue, as you suggest. But they are simply a mouthpiece atm.
Also I agree that Labour/Tory parties current policy offerings are virtually the same.This is not a good thing for the Country in general, we need more progressive radical ideas if only for
debate and consideration.
I do not agree that ‘a move to the left’ is the future direction of travel, I see nothing in policy proposals that underpins that assumption. The situation is that we are undergoing major Global changes and nobody knows how these changes will affect future politics. Only strong political leadership will guide us through to future prosperity and health, I do not see that in either of our two major Parties.
A lot of what guides the government isn't them coming up with the best policies, it's about what appears to the voters so they can be voted into power. So I see a move to the left as there is a change in voting patterns as some younger people get old enough to vote (and actually vote) and others die off, driven by the stuff I mentioned above. However you have not accounted for a political parties that could develop into other policy areas. Also talk of Greens and Green policies is becoming more mainstream across all parties and I would expect that trend to continue, as you suggest. But they are simply a mouthpiece atm.
Also I agree that Labour/Tory parties current policy offerings are virtually the same.This is not a good thing for the Country in general, we need more progressive radical ideas if only for
debate and consideration.
I do not agree that ‘a move to the left’ is the future direction of travel, I see nothing in policy proposals that underpins that assumption. The situation is that we are undergoing major Global changes and nobody knows how these changes will affect future politics. Only strong political leadership will guide us through to future prosperity and health, I do not see that in either of our two major Parties.
Edited by NRS on Tuesday 30th April 15:26
I don’t see a move to the left at all, it’s that fag paper being realigned.
I see contention in Labour offering the Unions back the industrial power (within 100 days of taking Governance) they lost under the Tory years, whilst at the same time backing business and talking about the growth fairy.
None of us know what the future holds in a fast changing World.
crankedup5 said:
You seem to be saying that Political Parties only get elected by offering the electorate acceptable and attractive policy proposals. Well of course and that’s been my starting point throughout. But this attractive policy stuff is always abandoned as soon as Governance is won.
But that's Reform in a nutshell. Offer unicorns that are unworkable but are appealing to their base. Should the unthinkable happen and Reform get elected most of their manifesto would have to be massively modified or abandoned.Slogans are fine until you start asking for details.
Take the London Reform leaflet just posted. The Mayor has no control over LTNs and 20mph limits (that are not on a red route) as it's the local councils that decide it but the 2% of Londoners thinking of voting for Reform for London Mayor will believe it.
You're offering unicorns and rainbows and are no different to the Monster Raving Loony Party in that respect.
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