Is the turnaround in sight?
Discussion
Actually in all seriousness.
It is going to get a LOT worse.
We haven't got anywhere NEAR the number of unemployed there will be.
And I personally know firms whose managers/directors are looking at the order book drying up and will therefore be forced into laying skilled people off. This isn't going to be an imaginary recession. This is going to be one where every last one of us will know people who have lost their job and their house.
It is going to get a LOT worse.
We haven't got anywhere NEAR the number of unemployed there will be.
And I personally know firms whose managers/directors are looking at the order book drying up and will therefore be forced into laying skilled people off. This isn't going to be an imaginary recession. This is going to be one where every last one of us will know people who have lost their job and their house.
mickken said:
MaxAndRuby said:
mickken said:
MaxAndRuby said:
mickken said:
THERE IS NO f
kING MONEY. THE MONEY HAS BEEN SPENT OR LOST.
Money isn't spent or lost, it's transferred. The way we value assets is the problem, but global quantitative easing will sort that out.kING MONEY. THE MONEY HAS BEEN SPENT OR LOST.I hope.
In 99% of cases it is written off?? ....or am I missing something here.
mickken said:
Agreed that they were overvalued....and still are. But money has been lent on that house and has now gone! No??
Money is just an I.O.U. - it's only worth what others will pay for it. However it is a relatively liquid form of debt and thus desirable in many circumstances.Edited by fido on Tuesday 17th March 12:12
blindswelledrat said:
David87M3 said:
hope it is...
We had a contractor in last week who creates signage for big national companies pizza hut ect ect.
He recknons businesses are starting to see the credit crunch as media propoganda/crap.
Dave
We had a contractor in last week who creates signage for big national companies pizza hut ect ect.
He recknons businesses are starting to see the credit crunch as media propoganda/crap.
Dave
He sounds like he knows what he's talking about.
He wasn't in a pub was he?
He did say November/december saw lots of projects being either canceled or put on hold. Feb saw the orders that were put on hold now being changed to go ahead with the work please.
He was re branding our building....
Edited by David87M3 on Tuesday 17th March 13:16
Horse_Apple said:
Digga said:
Horse_Apple said:
I don't see why a recession cannot be viewed in the same manner as a berievement, insomuch as I think it is fair to apply the 5 Stages of Grief:
1 - Denial
Denial is a conscious or unconscious refusal to accept facts, information, reality, etc., relating to the situation concerned. It's a defence mechanism and perfectly natural. Some people can become locked in this stage when dealing with a traumatic change that can be ignored. Death of course is not particularly easy to avoid or evade indefinitely.
2 - Anger
Anger can manifest in different ways. People dealing with emotional upset can be angry with themselves, and/or with others, especially those close to them. Knowing this helps keep detached and non-judgemental when experiencing the anger of someone who is very upset.
3 - Bargaining
Traditionally the bargaining stage for people facing death can involve attempting to bargain with whatever God the person believes in. People facing less serious trauma can bargain or seek to negotiate a compromise. For example "Can we still be friends?.." when facing a break-up. Bargaining rarely provides a sustainable solution, especially if it's a matter of life or death.
4 - Depression
Also referred to as preparatory grieving. In a way it's the dress rehearsal or the practice run for the 'aftermath' although this stage means different things depending on whom it involves. It's a sort of acceptance with emotional attachment. It's natural to feel sadness and regret, fear, uncertainty, etc. It shows that the person has at least begun to accept the reality.
5 - Acceptance
Again this stage definitely varies according to the person's situation, although broadly it is an indication that there is some emotional detachment and objectivity. People dying can enter this stage a long time before the people they leave behind, who must necessarily pass through their own individual stages of dealing with the grief.
If this is the case then I would argue that we are, as a collective, at Stage 1.
Boom bust is a cyclical thing. Roughtly 7 years. We had a mini bust around 7 years ago but it was contained in the IT industry and other areas prevented it from being serious. Plus, massive Govt spending etc.
As someone has already pointed out, nowadays we expect everything instantly. For 15 years we've had growth and this means that an entire generation, maybe 2, has erroneous expectations that must be re-based. This takes time.
It takes time for those who are wiped out to re-build and for the memory of the last bust to fade enough for them to be part of the next boom thinking. It takes time for the next generation to appear on the scene with their bullish youthful views that offset the older bears.
Add to this natural process the fact that we are now so massively in debt that UK taxation has to go through the roof as soon as there is the slightest sign of growth and I do suspect that while we may see stability appearing this time next year we have to be looking at a very long period of stagnation.
I still expect huge changes in the highstreet, much more unemployment, massive increases in social unrest etc. None of this has really started to appear, which to me means we are still at the very beginning of this phase.
Horse Apple, can you conjour up some more stages for me to do - I'm sure I'm already past '5'. 1 - Denial
Denial is a conscious or unconscious refusal to accept facts, information, reality, etc., relating to the situation concerned. It's a defence mechanism and perfectly natural. Some people can become locked in this stage when dealing with a traumatic change that can be ignored. Death of course is not particularly easy to avoid or evade indefinitely.
2 - Anger
Anger can manifest in different ways. People dealing with emotional upset can be angry with themselves, and/or with others, especially those close to them. Knowing this helps keep detached and non-judgemental when experiencing the anger of someone who is very upset.
3 - Bargaining
Traditionally the bargaining stage for people facing death can involve attempting to bargain with whatever God the person believes in. People facing less serious trauma can bargain or seek to negotiate a compromise. For example "Can we still be friends?.." when facing a break-up. Bargaining rarely provides a sustainable solution, especially if it's a matter of life or death.
4 - Depression
Also referred to as preparatory grieving. In a way it's the dress rehearsal or the practice run for the 'aftermath' although this stage means different things depending on whom it involves. It's a sort of acceptance with emotional attachment. It's natural to feel sadness and regret, fear, uncertainty, etc. It shows that the person has at least begun to accept the reality.
5 - Acceptance
Again this stage definitely varies according to the person's situation, although broadly it is an indication that there is some emotional detachment and objectivity. People dying can enter this stage a long time before the people they leave behind, who must necessarily pass through their own individual stages of dealing with the grief.
If this is the case then I would argue that we are, as a collective, at Stage 1.
Boom bust is a cyclical thing. Roughtly 7 years. We had a mini bust around 7 years ago but it was contained in the IT industry and other areas prevented it from being serious. Plus, massive Govt spending etc.
As someone has already pointed out, nowadays we expect everything instantly. For 15 years we've had growth and this means that an entire generation, maybe 2, has erroneous expectations that must be re-based. This takes time.
It takes time for those who are wiped out to re-build and for the memory of the last bust to fade enough for them to be part of the next boom thinking. It takes time for the next generation to appear on the scene with their bullish youthful views that offset the older bears.
Add to this natural process the fact that we are now so massively in debt that UK taxation has to go through the roof as soon as there is the slightest sign of growth and I do suspect that while we may see stability appearing this time next year we have to be looking at a very long period of stagnation.
I still expect huge changes in the highstreet, much more unemployment, massive increases in social unrest etc. None of this has really started to appear, which to me means we are still at the very beginning of this phase.
Edited by Horse_Apple on Tuesday 17th March 10:39
http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/markets-...
"The scale of the economic decline has been underestimated and a recovery is unlikely to arrive within the next four years"
"This crisis will encompass a long adjustment...the scale of debt build up is unprecedented."
Debt doesn't disappear overnight.
Don said:
Actually in all seriousness.
It is going to get a LOT worse.
We haven't got anywhere NEAR the number of unemployed there will be.
And I personally know firms whose managers/directors are looking at the order book drying up and will therefore be forced into laying skilled people off. This isn't going to be an imaginary recession. This is going to be one where every last one of us will know people who have lost their job and their house.
Agree. I am one of those directors.It is going to get a LOT worse.
We haven't got anywhere NEAR the number of unemployed there will be.
And I personally know firms whose managers/directors are looking at the order book drying up and will therefore be forced into laying skilled people off. This isn't going to be an imaginary recession. This is going to be one where every last one of us will know people who have lost their job and their house.
I heard Brown say on R4 that eighty thousand firms had approached HMRC seeking to temporarily offset their tax liabilities that they cannot pay.
This is buying them time. Eventually, like a stack of cards, they will fail and take a hell of a lot of employees & creditors with them.
Over? This s
t ain't even begun yet.mickken said:
MaxAndRuby said:
mickken said:
THERE IS NO fkING MONEY. THE MONEY HAS BEEN SPENT OR LOST.
Money isn't spent or lost, it's transferred. The way we value assets is the problem, but global quantitative easing will sort that out.kING MONEY. THE MONEY HAS BEEN SPENT OR LOST.I hope.
In 99% of cases it is written off?? ....or am I missing something here.
richardxjr said:
Don said:
Actually in all seriousness.
It is going to get a LOT worse.
We haven't got anywhere NEAR the number of unemployed there will be.
And I personally know firms whose managers/directors are looking at the order book drying up and will therefore be forced into laying skilled people off. This isn't going to be an imaginary recession. This is going to be one where every last one of us will know people who have lost their job and their house.
Agree. I am one of those directors.It is going to get a LOT worse.
We haven't got anywhere NEAR the number of unemployed there will be.
And I personally know firms whose managers/directors are looking at the order book drying up and will therefore be forced into laying skilled people off. This isn't going to be an imaginary recession. This is going to be one where every last one of us will know people who have lost their job and their house.
I heard Brown say on R4 that eighty thousand firms had approached HMRC seeking to temporarily offset their tax liabilities that they cannot pay.
This is buying them time. Eventually, like a stack of cards, they will fail and take a hell of a lot of employees & creditors with them.
Over? This s
t ain't even begun yet.Which is why we're targeting the public sector...
Is the turnaround in sight?
No.
This might be news to a few people but the UK in terms of its liabilities is the most indebted country on the planet.
Household credit - £1.4 Trillion
Government - around £600bn (PSND, Bail-out I & II, PFI and Network Rail). Including public sector pensions - that's another £750bn.
Total 2.5 Trillion or 300% GDP.
Now, if the banks are unwilling to lend additional credit then the artificial stimulation of demand through credit will greatly diminish. The economy will have to shift from a credit to cash economy, this switch will cost growth and jobs. The good news is that it will blunt prices for some time to come.
Basically, credit is like crack cocaine to an economy, great for a short term fix, hell to get off it.
At the most basic of economic theories; the opportunity cost for every £1 of credit to repay, removes £1 in demand and removes £1 from income. Our economy is been addicted to credit certainly beyond its means for at least the last four years.
When are we likely to see growth?
Probably late 2010 but it will be weak, relatively low growth and doubtful if it is sustainable. The interest payments alone on government borrowing represent a £50bn/year commitment - that's a hell of a lot of taxation to raise.
Until a government seriously reins in the public sector to the tune of cutting budgets by 20 to 30% and cuts direct taxation even then it's going to take 20 years to repay the government debt.
As for households, well, it's simple, credit is going to be more difficult to maintain, until it has paid it back, no more.
The country is more fked than it was in 1979 going by the economic indicators - there is some very painful medicine coming.
No.
This might be news to a few people but the UK in terms of its liabilities is the most indebted country on the planet.
Household credit - £1.4 Trillion
Government - around £600bn (PSND, Bail-out I & II, PFI and Network Rail). Including public sector pensions - that's another £750bn.
Total 2.5 Trillion or 300% GDP.
Now, if the banks are unwilling to lend additional credit then the artificial stimulation of demand through credit will greatly diminish. The economy will have to shift from a credit to cash economy, this switch will cost growth and jobs. The good news is that it will blunt prices for some time to come.
Basically, credit is like crack cocaine to an economy, great for a short term fix, hell to get off it.
At the most basic of economic theories; the opportunity cost for every £1 of credit to repay, removes £1 in demand and removes £1 from income. Our economy is been addicted to credit certainly beyond its means for at least the last four years.
When are we likely to see growth?
Probably late 2010 but it will be weak, relatively low growth and doubtful if it is sustainable. The interest payments alone on government borrowing represent a £50bn/year commitment - that's a hell of a lot of taxation to raise.
Until a government seriously reins in the public sector to the tune of cutting budgets by 20 to 30% and cuts direct taxation even then it's going to take 20 years to repay the government debt.
As for households, well, it's simple, credit is going to be more difficult to maintain, until it has paid it back, no more.
The country is more f
ked than it was in 1979 going by the economic indicators - there is some very painful medicine coming.Numbers just out
The jobless claims change is the worst in the dataset that I have (since 1971)
.............................This month..............Expected......Last Month........Revised
Claimant count rate:..........4.3%...................4% ...........3.8%...............3.9%
Jobless Claims Change:.......138.4k...................84.8k........73.8k...............93.5k
Av earnings inc bonus:........1.8%....................3%...........3.2%................3.1%
Av earnings ex bonus:.........3.5%....................3.5%..........3.6%
ILO unemployment rate........6.5%.....................6.5%..........6.3%
The jobless claims change is the worst in the dataset that I have (since 1971)
.............................This month..............Expected......Last Month........Revised
Claimant count rate:..........4.3%...................4% ...........3.8%...............3.9%
Jobless Claims Change:.......138.4k...................84.8k........73.8k...............93.5k
Av earnings inc bonus:........1.8%....................3%...........3.2%................3.1%
Av earnings ex bonus:.........3.5%....................3.5%..........3.6%
ILO unemployment rate........6.5%.....................6.5%..........6.3%
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