A coalition looks nailed on but who will be the bed partners
Discussion
voyds9 said:
I will be voting Reform, not that I think they have a chance but more for the disdain for the other major parties.
Same here. Although when I clicked on the odds checker link further up I was surprised to see Reclaim (Lawrence Fox) in 3rd place on 100/1. Ahead of Reform or the Lib Dems.All cloud cuckoo land of course. Labour will get the most then Tory, barring some major upset.
I also suspect they'll get a majority. They might not have got quite the swing they wanted in the locals but if some chunk of those votes for Green and Lib Dem come there way in a general election it will be a big help.
Fermit said:
fat80b said:
The election is still a long way away if you ask me
Indeed. 2 years is a long time, for either side to drop any number of clangers to change their fortune. PositronicRay said:
Fermit said:
fat80b said:
The election is still a long way away if you ask me
Indeed. 2 years is a long time, for either side to drop any number of clangers to change their fortune. TGCOTF-dewey said:
valiant said:
paulw123 said:
Now Rishi has steadied the ship and nobody, even the man himself, knows what labour stands for the gap will close up
Tories lose 1000+ seats.Rishi has steadied the ship.
paulw123 said:
TGCOTF-dewey said:
valiant said:
paulw123 said:
Now Rishi has steadied the ship and nobody, even the man himself, knows what labour stands for the gap will close up
Tories lose 1000+ seats.Rishi has steadied the ship.
Local election result =/= general election result.
valiant said:
paulw123 said:
Now Rishi has steadied the ship and nobody, even the man himself, knows what labour stands for the gap will close up
Tories lose 1000+ seats.Rishi has steadied the ship.
I'm not now so sure that Labour will win by very much at all. A coalition could be possible.
Vasco said:
It's only local elections, in just a part of the UK. Voters always vote differently at a General Election.
I'm not now so sure that Labour will win by very much at all. A coalition could be possible.
They were the part of the UK - provincial England - that is probably most loyal to the Conservative party. Scotland, Wales and London haven't even got their kicking boots on yet. I'm not now so sure that Labour will win by very much at all. A coalition could be possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_...
Latest polls give Labour a 21 point lead and you have to go back a long way to last summer to get a single digit Labour lead. December 2021 for a Conservative lead. Some seat projections put them under 100 seats.
There isn't that long to go, and however 'steady' or 'credible' Sunak is (meaning the media don't smell blood, yet) he seems unlikely to win over millions of people or inspire them to go out and vote Tory, with a tanking economy.
The Conservatives are dead as a party. A remarkable collapse from winning a convincing majority in 2019. They make Major's party in 1997 look like a slick and well organised machine. The one hope they had, and God knows it wasn't a great one, was Boris Johnson saying actually conservative things and doing a Churchill impression over Ukraine. Between the party head office and the media they decided that they'd rather have a Labour government. It is now becoming clear to lots of people what some of us have said for years - the biggest barrier to a successful British conservative movement is the Conservative Party.
Quite what millions of people see in Starmer's Labour is a mystery to me. I don't actually know anyone who raves about Starmer or is inspired by his policies - what are they anyway? - but it doesn't really matter. He's the tallest dwarf.
Mojooo said:
What will the PM do to sweeten us up just before the election?
Was wondering the other day, if large parts of the public sector workforce are still demanding above inflation pay increases nearer the date of a GE how it would be handled.At present, we have (for example) nurses and teachers striking in an attempt to get a better deal. The Government are saying it is not affordable.
They make an alternative proposal and predictably the Labour opposition say whatever the government offers is derisory and those workers deserve more.
If the polls indicated a Labour landslide just before the next GE, the current Government read the writing on the wall & accepted they will be out of power in a matter of months and gave the entirity of the public sector a 15% pay increase.
Even though Labour claimed previously that whatever Tory's offer is insufficient. they must know that a pay-rise of that magnitude would leave a massive hole to fill in the finances.
Something they couldn't go back on either, given they've said its what those people deserve.
Would be a stitch-up of colossal proportions.
OzzyR1 said:
Mojooo said:
What will the PM do to sweeten us up just before the election?
Was wondering the other day, if large parts of the public sector workforce are still demanding above inflation pay increases nearer the date of a GE how it would be handled.At present, we have (for example) nurses and teachers striking in an attempt to get a better deal. The Government are saying it is not affordable.
They make an alternative proposal and predictably the Labour opposition say whatever the government offers is derisory and those workers deserve more.
If the polls indicated a Labour landslide just before the next GE, the current Government read the writing on the wall & accepted they will be out of power in a matter of months and gave the entirity of the public sector a 15% pay increase.
Even though Labour claimed previously that whatever Tory's offer is insufficient. they must know that a pay-rise of that magnitude would leave a massive hole to fill in the finances.
Something they couldn't go back on either, given they've said its what those people deserve.
Would be a stitch-up of colossal proportions.
fat80b said:
The election is still a long way away if you ask me.
They had to expect a malling in the locals but the shift from blue to red was not as apparent as they thought it would be. That to me says a lot of folk voted as a protest rather than an actual shift in beliefs.
Agreed yes. These mid term council elections don't mean much, there's often a big swing against the government. It won't mean much in a couple of years at a GE. All to play for. They had to expect a malling in the locals but the shift from blue to red was not as apparent as they thought it would be. That to me says a lot of folk voted as a protest rather than an actual shift in beliefs.
Vasco said:
Given how far away we are from a General Election, it is getting increasingly unlikely that there will be anything like a Labour 'landslide' victory.
That's why I said "if" a couple of times, all hypothetical.Recall that an outgoing Labour government raised the top level of tax just before they left office knowing that the conservatives wouldn't be able to drop it again without cries of "Tory tax breaks for the richest".
This situation would be similar, Labour have been calling for public sector pay increases to match or exceed inflation while in opposition, but if the Conservatives actually did that just before a GE then Labour would be left to deal with the aftermath and associated hole in the economy.
Would be painful for middle-earners in the private sector at a guess.
Why bother? They are all lying, self serving trough feeders anyway riding the gravy train to the next position. As for the incumbent t
ts north of Hadrians Wall..... don’t get me started.
To get a true and absolute reflection of the country, voting needs to be compulsory and punishable by fine. With one caveat.... on every ballot should include a ‘none of the above’ option.
ts north of Hadrians Wall..... don’t get me started.To get a true and absolute reflection of the country, voting needs to be compulsory and punishable by fine. With one caveat.... on every ballot should include a ‘none of the above’ option.
StescoG66 said:
Why bother? They are all lying, self serving trough feeders anyway riding the gravy train to the next position. As for the incumbent tts north of Hadrians Wall..... don’t get me started.
To get a true and absolute reflection of the country, voting needs to be compulsory and punishable by fine. With one caveat.... on every ballot should include a ‘none of the above’ option.
What would you propose happens if a majority tick “none of the above”?ts north of Hadrians Wall..... don’t get me started.To get a true and absolute reflection of the country, voting needs to be compulsory and punishable by fine. With one caveat.... on every ballot should include a ‘none of the above’ option.
allegro said:
A rather less than superb result for labour with a decent turn out for lib Dems and other "protest votes" I still see a coalition of some sort on the horizon
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.htmlSo the Tories have the worst results for 40 years and you come on the write that it looks like a coalition? It was unsupported wishful thinking when you wrote it 12 months ago (along with some laughable stuff about Rishi steadying the ship). It is similar now.
With such an inability to recognise reality have you considered being a Tory MP (although chances of getting elected not looking great currently)?
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