EVs... no one wants them!
Discussion
740EVTORQUES said:
No one is buying an EV expecting it to retain its value. The idea is to use it and then recycle it in 10-15 years.
For petrol cars the number of people who want one as a toy is so tiny and will be getting smaller that only a small number of rare and desirable cars have any chance of retaining their value. Add in the likely increased cost and obstacles to using one and prices are only going one way.
Sorry to break it to you, but good as a GR86 may be, it’s no future classic to invest in. There just aren’t enough people who care about petrol engines for that to work.
Can I get next week's lottery numbers as you obviously know what is going to happen in the future? For petrol cars the number of people who want one as a toy is so tiny and will be getting smaller that only a small number of rare and desirable cars have any chance of retaining their value. Add in the likely increased cost and obstacles to using one and prices are only going one way.
Sorry to break it to you, but good as a GR86 may be, it’s no future classic to invest in. There just aren’t enough people who care about petrol engines for that to work.
For me I will take my chances with what is holding strong money right now so if I do come to sell and replace with an EV in say the next 5 years when they actually might become viable to me my pocket will not be empty.
Performance and interesting ICE cars will never be obsolete to the enthusiast whereas today's EV's will be in the scrap yard as the tech is evolving at a rapid pace.
Expecting any humdrum car (i.e. anything short of a desirable supercar) to be an investment is misguided to say the least.
When you consider the costs of running the thing, even if it doesn’t lose anything over, say, 20 years in monetary terms you’re still going to be far behind where you would be if you’d just stuck the money in a tracker fund or something.
Yes, you have the use of a lovely car over that same period, but considered over that time frame, even if the car’s future value was £0 then it’s less than all the other costs associated with running it, whether powered by ICE, EV, or monkey spunk.
When you consider the costs of running the thing, even if it doesn’t lose anything over, say, 20 years in monetary terms you’re still going to be far behind where you would be if you’d just stuck the money in a tracker fund or something.
Yes, you have the use of a lovely car over that same period, but considered over that time frame, even if the car’s future value was £0 then it’s less than all the other costs associated with running it, whether powered by ICE, EV, or monkey spunk.
SWoll said:
BricktopST205 said:
Performance and interesting ICE cars will never be obsolete to the enthusiast whereas today's EV's will be in the scrap yard as the tech is evolving at a rapid pace.
Keep seeing this posted. Care to elaborate?Use it once, burn it and dig up more.
Zero concept of avoiding waste heat or the ability to recycle unburnt mass.
SWoll said:
Keep seeing this posted. Care to elaborate?
ICE cars plateaued in the 90's really. That is why you see many cars from the mid 00's still on the road today. Outside of in car entertainment they are equally as capable as their new car brothers. Who will want to buy an EV from today that can do 50-100 miles whereas in ten years time they will be doing 400+ on a single charge.
The technology is getting better and better day by day. This isn't a slight on EV's this is just a case of a rapidly evolving technology.
BricktopST205 said:
Who will want to buy an EV from today that can do 50-100 miles whereas in ten years time they will be doing 400+ on a single charge.
Anybody who wants to run an EV on a budget and drives 20 miles a day for the vast majority of their journeys.You know, the average car owner I was getting slated for mentioning yesterday...
They present an opportunity for the interesting petrol cars you are keen on, and for people who want to pay to run those and to keep them going.
The threat is to diesel cars and eventually mundane petrol ones.
loudlashadjuster said:
Expecting any humdrum car (i.e. anything short of a desirable supercar) to be an investment is misguided to say the least.
When you consider the costs of running the thing, even if it doesn’t lose anything over, say, 20 years in monetary terms you’re still going to be far behind where you would be if you’d just stuck the money in a tracker fund or something.
Yes, you have the use of a lovely car over that same period, but considered over that time frame, even if the car’s future value was £0 then it’s less than all the other costs associated with running it, whether powered by ICE, EV, or monkey spunk.
I would agree with that statement, even as a GR86 owner. Though, as a mere mortal, the GR86 does look a more sensible place to put your money (if there is ever such a thing to do with cars) outside of limited edition Porsche/Ferrari/Pagani etc - but I would never class it or any car as an investment. When you consider the costs of running the thing, even if it doesn’t lose anything over, say, 20 years in monetary terms you’re still going to be far behind where you would be if you’d just stuck the money in a tracker fund or something.
Yes, you have the use of a lovely car over that same period, but considered over that time frame, even if the car’s future value was £0 then it’s less than all the other costs associated with running it, whether powered by ICE, EV, or monkey spunk.
The big unknown aspect for enthusiast/fun ICE cars, and their future values, will be how EV's can cater for that market. Reading today's review of the Ionig 5 N, as one of the vanguard EV hot hatches, which weighs 2.2tons and has 600hp - we are still someway to go on the fun EV side. Weight in particular seems to be a key characteristic that needs improvement.
I'm genuinely excited to see how things like the new EV Boxster turn out as I hope, as an enthusiast, we will still be able to have more fun cars in the future.
BricktopST205 said:
SWoll said:
Keep seeing this posted. Care to elaborate?
ICE cars plateaued in the 90's really. That is why you see many cars from the mid 00's still on the road today. Outside of in car entertainment they are equally as capable as their new car brothers. Who will want to buy an EV from today that can do 50-100 miles whereas in ten years time they will be doing 400+ on a single charge.
The technology is getting better and better day by day. This isn't a slight on EV's this is just a case of a rapidly evolving technology.
But that doesn't mean that current EVs will be obsolete.
An electric Mini that does 100-150 miles will still have a practical application as a city car in 10 years time as it does now. People don't need the range for the usage case it has.
Equally, buying a Tesla that can do 500 miles range in 10 years time doesn't mean that the current one with 350 miles range will be on the scrapheap. It just means that the market for the 500 mile range one is wider.
But the main point is that EV 'obsolescence' will not make your ICE car an investment. You've said yourself that cars plateaued in the 90s/2000s - I agree with you.
That's also when the petrolhead, in the traditional sense, plateaued.
Young people today aren't so hungry for the road - learning to drive and insuring a car is expensive, more so comparatively to when us middle-agers were 17.
They also haven't had an environment where they tinker - buy an old car, get it running, do it up, bend a few safety regs...
So they aspire to Teslas and the like because the user interface is like their iPhone and they don't have to piss about getting fuel or changing spark plugs.
Very soon; young people will view the ICE car like the youth of today view the CD player, or the Walkman. A quaint insight into yesteryear.
"What, you had to actually go to a fuel station and put fuel in it?!?"
The upshot of all of this is that, with the exception of cars that are 'art' - Ferraris, Paganis, Lamborghinis, etc - ICE cars won't be desired by the next generation.
Your Toyota may hold it's value for a few years but that's nothing to do with EV's. Longer term, it'll be a Walkman.
monkfish1 said:
The "right" way to look at this, is that commercial reality has bumped to government targets. Everything else is just noise. You cant just say, they must find a way to sell EV profitably. Most of the barriers to EV take up are not within their control. Making such statements, completely independant of reality helps no one.
And the outcome, if no one takes some sort of decisive action, is an ageing vehicle fleet as a result of diminishing new car sales.
A brand new ICE is manifestly better than a 15 year old obe, especially if you factor diesel. As good as an EV, no, not by any means, but its step fowards. We look, on the face of it, to be backing into a corner that says, improvement can only come if its perfection (EV). But if you cant sell enough you achieve little.
The solution here is better, cheaper EVs. At the moment the EVs that have decent range and charging speed are all expensive and premium products. The technology is now reaching a point where this is possible in cheaper cars and competition will drive this forward. Ford only has the Mustang-E and quelle surprise the market isn’t huge for the price and spec of that car. Hyundai and Kia who are in the same market are running at 36% EV sales in the UK because they have keenly priced, desirable and competitive products. It’s that simple. And the outcome, if no one takes some sort of decisive action, is an ageing vehicle fleet as a result of diminishing new car sales.
A brand new ICE is manifestly better than a 15 year old obe, especially if you factor diesel. As good as an EV, no, not by any means, but its step fowards. We look, on the face of it, to be backing into a corner that says, improvement can only come if its perfection (EV). But if you cant sell enough you achieve little.
Bear in mind that manufacturers can borrow and buy ZEV credits against future years and from other manufacturers who have actually got the right compliance and market strategy (Tesla, Kia/Hyundai, BMW Chinese etc) so they have significant flexibility.
So yes Ford are complaining, but they were always going to. They didn’t have a credible plan and now they are being skewered for it. To be honest they've not had a credible European strategy for years now and this is just the latest in a series of misses.
FamousPheasant said:
I would agree with that statement, even as a GR86 owner. Though, as a mere mortal, the GR86 does look a more sensible place to put your money (if there is ever such a thing to do with cars) outside of limited edition Porsche/Ferrari/Pagani etc - but I would never class it or any car as an investment.
The big unknown aspect for enthusiast/fun ICE cars, and their future values, will be how EV's can cater for that market. Reading today's review of the Ionig 5 N, as one of the vanguard EV hot hatches, which weighs 2.2tons and has 600hp - we are still someway to go on the fun EV side. Weight in particular seems to be a key characteristic that needs improvement.
I'm genuinely excited to see how things like the new EV Boxster turn out as I hope, as an enthusiast, we will still be able to have more fun cars in the future.
Btw i never classed it as an investment. That is what the evangalists did. Merely if I were to come to sell in the next 5-10 years it would give me the best return. The big unknown aspect for enthusiast/fun ICE cars, and their future values, will be how EV's can cater for that market. Reading today's review of the Ionig 5 N, as one of the vanguard EV hot hatches, which weighs 2.2tons and has 600hp - we are still someway to go on the fun EV side. Weight in particular seems to be a key characteristic that needs improvement.
I'm genuinely excited to see how things like the new EV Boxster turn out as I hope, as an enthusiast, we will still be able to have more fun cars in the future.
If I would have bought that Model 3 or MG4 I would be 10-15k out of pocket already instead of only a few thousand whilst still being able to drive something enjoyable and saving me money net compared to the EV offerings. Then 5 years down the line if I decide to sell and buy another new car I have a lot more capital to put down on the next.
Muzzer79 said:
BricktopST205 said:
SWoll said:
Keep seeing this posted. Care to elaborate?
ICE cars plateaued in the 90's really. That is why you see many cars from the mid 00's still on the road today. Outside of in car entertainment they are equally as capable as their new car brothers. Who will want to buy an EV from today that can do 50-100 miles whereas in ten years time they will be doing 400+ on a single charge.
The technology is getting better and better day by day. This isn't a slight on EV's this is just a case of a rapidly evolving technology.
But that doesn't mean that current EVs will be obsolete.
An electric Mini that does 100-150 miles will still have a practical application as a city car in 10 years time as it does now. People don't need the range for the usage case it has.
Equally, buying a Tesla that can do 500 miles range in 10 years time doesn't mean that the current one with 350 miles range will be on the scrapheap. It just means that the market for the 500 mile range one is wider.
But the main point is that EV 'obsolescence' will not make your ICE car an investment. You've said yourself that cars plateaued in the 90s/2000s - I agree with you.
That's also when the petrolhead, in the traditional sense, plateaued.
Young people today aren't so hungry for the road - learning to drive and insuring a car is expensive, more so comparatively to when us middle-agers were 17.
They also haven't had an environment where they tinker - buy an old car, get it running, do it up, bend a few safety regs...
So they aspire to Teslas and the like because the user interface is like their iPhone and they don't have to piss about getting fuel or changing spark plugs.
Very soon; young people will view the ICE car like the youth of today view the CD player, or the Walkman. A quaint insight into yesteryear.
"What, you had to actually go to a fuel station and put fuel in it?!?"
The upshot of all of this is that, with the exception of cars that are 'art' - Ferraris, Paganis, Lamborghinis, etc - ICE cars won't be desired by the next generation.
Your Toyota may hold it's value for a few years but that's nothing to do with EV's. Longer term, it'll be a Walkman.
Yes statistically the % of kids overall who aren't taking test or leaving it until later years but it's absolutely not a hopeless case for the future.
BricktopST205 said:
SWoll said:
Keep seeing this posted. Care to elaborate?
ICE cars plateaued in the 90's really. That is why you see many cars from the mid 00's still on the road today. Outside of in car entertainment they are equally as capable as their new car brothers. Who will want to buy an EV from today that can do 50-100 miles whereas in ten years time they will be doing 400+ on a single charge.
The technology is getting better and better day by day. This isn't a slight on EV's this is just a case of a rapidly evolving technology.
You've not explained why cars that currently offer 2-300+ miles will be doing 50-100 miles of range in 10 years though, or what these rapid advancements in tech are?
SWoll said:
Anyone who can charge at home and doesn't do more than 50-100 miles a day regularly, plus anyone who can't afford to buy a very expensive new car packed with the latest technology?
You've not explained why cars that currently offer 2-300+ miles will be doing 50-100 miles of range in 10 years though, or what these rapid advancements in tech are?
Ten year old Nissan Leafs are £1500 quid bangers now. You are already seeing it. One big bill and it is going to scrap. Battery tech has moved on so much futher in the past ten years and it will continue to do so in the future. You've not explained why cars that currently offer 2-300+ miles will be doing 50-100 miles of range in 10 years though, or what these rapid advancements in tech are?
I never said cars which offer 2-300 miles range will be doing 50-100 miles of range in ten years. You made that up in your head. It was more the cars that can barely make 100 miles real world range will be pretty worthless and 1 big bill will send them to scrap. That is the vast majorty of EV's available today.
BricktopST205 said:
Ten year old Nissan Leafs are £1500 quid bangers now. You are already seeing it. One big bill and it is going to scrap. Battery tech has moved on so much futher in the past ten years and it will continue to do so in the future.
I never said cars which offer 2-300 miles range will be doing 50-100 miles of range in ten years. You made that up in your head. It was more the cars that can barely make 100 miles real world range will be pretty worthless and 1 big bill will send them to scrap. That is the vast majorty of EV's available today.
You're using the example of one specific car to extrapolate results across an entire industry. You also point out that technology has evolved, so why would you expect current EV's to fare as badly as the first to market 10 years ago? Any £1500 car is one big bill away from being scrapped regardless of what powers it.I never said cars which offer 2-300 miles range will be doing 50-100 miles of range in ten years. You made that up in your head. It was more the cars that can barely make 100 miles real world range will be pretty worthless and 1 big bill will send them to scrap. That is the vast majorty of EV's available today.
Your argument is confused, contradictory and lacks any useful detail.
SWoll said:
BricktopST205 said:
Ten year old Nissan Leafs are £1500 quid bangers now. You are already seeing it. One big bill and it is going to scrap. Battery tech has moved on so much futher in the past ten years and it will continue to do so in the future.
I never said cars which offer 2-300 miles range will be doing 50-100 miles of range in ten years. You made that up in your head. It was more the cars that can barely make 100 miles real world range will be pretty worthless and 1 big bill will send them to scrap. That is the vast majorty of EV's available today.
You're using the example of one specific car to extrapolate results across an entire industry. You also point out that technology has evolved, so why would you expect current EV's to fare as badly as the first to market 10 years ago? Any £1500 car is one big bill away from being scrapped regardless of what powers it.I never said cars which offer 2-300 miles range will be doing 50-100 miles of range in ten years. You made that up in your head. It was more the cars that can barely make 100 miles real world range will be pretty worthless and 1 big bill will send them to scrap. That is the vast majorty of EV's available today.
Your argument is confused, contradictory and lacks any useful detail.
SWoll said:
You also point out that technology has evolved, so why would you expect current EV's to fare as badly as the first to market 10 years ago?
You answered your own question. No one wants early EV's because of how compromised they are. Likewise in 10 years time when EV's will be a lot better than the ones today. Nobody will want todays offerings either. It is not rocket science. ICE was exactly the same in 60's,70's,80's and 90's.
Seems to be about £4K per year price loss for GR86 and MG4
BricktopST205 said:
If I would have bought that Model 3 or MG4 I would be 10-15k out of pocket already instead of only a few thousand whilst still being able to drive something enjoyable and saving me money net compared to the EV offerings. Then 5 years down the line if I decide to sell and buy another new car I have a lot more capital to put down on the next.
BricktopST205 said:
You answered your own question. No one wants early EV's because of how compromised they are. Likewise in 10 years time when EV's will be a lot better than the ones today. Nobody will want todays offerings either. It is not rocket science.
ICE was exactly the same in 60's,70's,80's and 90's.
Again. The development over the past 10 years since the inception of the technology will mean current EV's have considerably more validity in future than a your example of a 10 year old Leaf.ICE was exactly the same in 60's,70's,80's and 90's.
Take a current Model 3 RWD. 230 real world miles, and based on what we've learned with Model S a battery degradation of around 2% per year in normal usage.
Based on that in 10 years that car will still have a useable range of 180+ miles and will be available at a price affordable for a far wider demographic of potential buyers than any new EV available at the time no matter how much the tech has moved on.
You talk like no-one buys 10 year old used cars.
BricktopST205 said:
You answered your own question. No one wants early EV's because of how compromised they are. Likewise in 10 years time when EV's will be a lot better than the ones today. Nobody will want todays offerings either. It is not rocket science.
ICE was exactly the same in 60's,70's,80's and 90's.
Cars from the 60's, 70's, 80's and (in most cases) 90's became worthless within 10 years because they mostly had terminal rust.
ICE was exactly the same in 60's,70's,80's and 90's.
Cars from the 60's, 70's, 80's and (in most cases) 90's became worthless within 10 years because they mostly had terminal rust.
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