Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4
Discussion
Pupp said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
redback911 said:
My bad. I mentioned the 500,000 troops reportedly being amassed on the front line, based on some media reports. I sincerely hope this is just misinformation or propaganda because the alternative would be dire.
You were just out by a factor of 10 - the reported number is 50k. Easy mistake to make. (But significant!)https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications...
500k Russians in the whole war sounds entirely plausible.
Biggy Stardust said:
TheJimi said:
Wonder if that will precipitate apologies for some of the more snide response aimed at those mentioning the 500k number.
Reports of a half million men amassed to strike still seem to be incorrect. Let me know when they actually strike, will you?But tankies gonna tank.
BikeBikeBIke said:
Biggy Stardust said:
TheJimi said:
Wonder if that will precipitate apologies for some of the more snide response aimed at those mentioning the 500k number.
Reports of a half million men amassed to strike still seem to be incorrect. Let me know when they actually strike, will you?But tankies gonna tank.
Pupp said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Biggy Stardust said:
TheJimi said:
Wonder if that will precipitate apologies for some of the more snide response aimed at those mentioning the 500k number.
Reports of a half million men amassed to strike still seem to be incorrect. Let me know when they actually strike, will you?But tankies gonna tank.
If he'd have meant 510k teeth arms, the total Russian army involved in this would be multiples larger.
Pupp said:
BikeBikeBIke said:
Biggy Stardust said:
TheJimi said:
Wonder if that will precipitate apologies for some of the more snide response aimed at those mentioning the 500k number.
Reports of a half million men amassed to strike still seem to be incorrect. Let me know when they actually strike, will you?But tankies gonna tank.
Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Thursday 16th May 19:22
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may...
Ukraine’s security council chief, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, said Moscow had mounted tens of thousands of troops against the Kharkiv region. “There are a lot of Russians, quite a lot. About 50,000 were on the border. Now there are much more than 30,000
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may...
[I]The rapid reversal in an area previously considered quiet is the latest setback for Ukraine in 2024. So far this year Russia has continued to increase the size of its invasion force, to 510,000, and exploited the defenders’ air defence and munitions shortages to capture Avdiivka in February and seize a bridgehead north west of it in April[I/]
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putins-s...
The Russian military has gathered roughly 50,000 personnel in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts as part of its Northern Grouping of Forces — the operationally significant force now conducting the offensive against Kharkiv Oblast
Hopefully this clears things up, I've always understood it to be 50k on the latest Kharkiv Oblast attack but some sources had claimed Russia were trying to disguise the true number. Russia need a buffer zone to protect Belgorod from artillery fire, anything beyond that in terms of territory gain is a bonus. 50k is enough to stretch Ukraine thinly on the frontline. 500k is enough to launch a genuine attempt to take Kharkiv.
I thought the person who quoted this yesterday made a type mistake but they could have quoted a source that mentioned Russia have committed 510k extra troops so far this year for the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s security council chief, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, said Moscow had mounted tens of thousands of troops against the Kharkiv region. “There are a lot of Russians, quite a lot. About 50,000 were on the border. Now there are much more than 30,000
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may...
[I]The rapid reversal in an area previously considered quiet is the latest setback for Ukraine in 2024. So far this year Russia has continued to increase the size of its invasion force, to 510,000, and exploited the defenders’ air defence and munitions shortages to capture Avdiivka in February and seize a bridgehead north west of it in April[I/]
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putins-s...
The Russian military has gathered roughly 50,000 personnel in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts as part of its Northern Grouping of Forces — the operationally significant force now conducting the offensive against Kharkiv Oblast
Hopefully this clears things up, I've always understood it to be 50k on the latest Kharkiv Oblast attack but some sources had claimed Russia were trying to disguise the true number. Russia need a buffer zone to protect Belgorod from artillery fire, anything beyond that in terms of territory gain is a bonus. 50k is enough to stretch Ukraine thinly on the frontline. 500k is enough to launch a genuine attempt to take Kharkiv.
I thought the person who quoted this yesterday made a type mistake but they could have quoted a source that mentioned Russia have committed 510k extra troops so far this year for the war in Ukraine.
BikeBikeBIke said:
No,you're wrong, I think the OP was totally genuine and was just out by a factor or ten which is an easy mistake to make. As you know, he said "amassing a substantial force". Clearly not the existing people but referring to the 50k they were amassing in the North.
Excuse me; ‘wrong’ about what exactly? RichFN2 said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may...
Ukraine’s security council chief, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, said Moscow had mounted tens of thousands of troops against the Kharkiv region. “There are a lot of Russians, quite a lot. About 50,000 were on the border. Now there are much more than 30,000
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may...
[I]The rapid reversal in an area previously considered quiet is the latest setback for Ukraine in 2024. So far this year Russia has continued to increase the size of its invasion force, to 510,000, and exploited the defenders’ air defence and munitions shortages to capture Avdiivka in February and seize a bridgehead north west of it in April[I/]
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putins-s...
The Russian military has gathered roughly 50,000 personnel in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts as part of its Northern Grouping of Forces — the operationally significant force now conducting the offensive against Kharkiv Oblast
Hopefully this clears things up, I've always understood it to be 50k on the latest Kharkiv Oblast attack but some sources had claimed Russia were trying to disguise the true number. Russia need a buffer zone to protect Belgorod from artillery fire, anything beyond that in terms of territory gain is a bonus. 50k is enough to stretch Ukraine thinly on the frontline. 500k is enough to launch a genuine attempt to take Kharkiv.
I thought the person who quoted this yesterday made a type mistake but they could have quoted a source that mentioned Russia have committed 510k extra troops so far this year for the war in Ukraine.
Yes, that's exactly my take.Ukraine’s security council chief, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, said Moscow had mounted tens of thousands of troops against the Kharkiv region. “There are a lot of Russians, quite a lot. About 50,000 were on the border. Now there are much more than 30,000
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may...
[I]The rapid reversal in an area previously considered quiet is the latest setback for Ukraine in 2024. So far this year Russia has continued to increase the size of its invasion force, to 510,000, and exploited the defenders’ air defence and munitions shortages to capture Avdiivka in February and seize a bridgehead north west of it in April[I/]
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putins-s...
The Russian military has gathered roughly 50,000 personnel in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts as part of its Northern Grouping of Forces — the operationally significant force now conducting the offensive against Kharkiv Oblast
Hopefully this clears things up, I've always understood it to be 50k on the latest Kharkiv Oblast attack but some sources had claimed Russia were trying to disguise the true number. Russia need a buffer zone to protect Belgorod from artillery fire, anything beyond that in terms of territory gain is a bonus. 50k is enough to stretch Ukraine thinly on the frontline. 500k is enough to launch a genuine attempt to take Kharkiv.
I thought the person who quoted this yesterday made a type mistake but they could have quoted a source that mentioned Russia have committed 510k extra troops so far this year for the war in Ukraine.
Maybe the OP can confirm what he meant, but it seemed pretty clear to me.
Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Thursday 16th May 19:26
Iamnotkloot said:
Harsh but probably fair. Support needs to be increased, kept consistent and provided over a longer period. Looking at the straight numbers, yes Russia does have the upper hand. But then again, the Russian economy isnt doing great and it remains to be seen how well it will fair over the next few years. Russia will of course suffer massive casualties in the progress and be left with demographic and economic gaps that will effect it for decades to come. It may win in the short term, but the long term is loses anyway.As for Ukraine? Yeah, fair points raised but the Ukrainians are adapting quickly and have proven to be very innovative. There wont be any wonder weapons, but the continued attrition that they can maintain (I see the loss figures for Russia are back into the 1700 - 2000 per day numbers again!), there are options.
Iamnotkloot said:
I hope they don't get to Odessa. In fact I think the West would get directly involved before that point, becaise a) then Ukraine won't be viable and b) Moldova will immediately be taken by Russia.I also think that Europe would rather commit forces than absorb millions of refugees.
Whatever happens we need to give Ukraina a lot more stuff and every scrap of assistance we can muster.
I feel so bad for Ukraine. They had a demographic nightmare on their plate and Russia have just made it ten times worse. Russia have made everyone worse off especially themselves. What utter, utter
s. Edited by BikeBikeBIke on Thursday 16th May 19:55
BikeBikeBIke said:
Biggy Stardust said:
TheJimi said:
Wonder if that will precipitate apologies for some of the more snide response aimed at those mentioning the 500k number.
Reports of a half million men amassed to strike still seem to be incorrect. Let me know when they actually strike, will you?But tankies gonna tank.
The other night Ukraine attacked a Russian airbase in Crimea using long range ATACMS and now some high-quality satellite imagery of the Belbek airfield has been published.
Confirmation on what what destroyed:
- 2 destroyed MiG-31s
- 1 destroyed Su-27
- 1 damaged MiG-29
- destroyed fuel and lubricants depot
- destroyed radar and launcher of the S-400 system
Confirmation on what what destroyed:
- 2 destroyed MiG-31s
- 1 destroyed Su-27
- 1 damaged MiG-29
- destroyed fuel and lubricants depot
- destroyed radar and launcher of the S-400 system
RichFN2 said:
The other night Ukraine attacked a Russian airbase in Crimea using long range ATACMS and now some high-quality satellite imagery of the Belbek airfield has been published.
Confirmation on what what destroyed:
- 2 destroyed MiG-31s
- 1 destroyed Su-27
- 1 damaged MiG-29
- destroyed fuel and lubricants depot
- destroyed radar and launcher of the S-400 system
Now that looks a succesful attack. Nice.Confirmation on what what destroyed:
- 2 destroyed MiG-31s
- 1 destroyed Su-27
- 1 damaged MiG-29
- destroyed fuel and lubricants depot
- destroyed radar and launcher of the S-400 system
TopTrump said:
RichFN2 said:
The other night Ukraine attacked a Russian airbase in Crimea using long range ATACMS and now some high-quality satellite imagery of the Belbek airfield has been published.
Confirmation on what what destroyed:
- 2 destroyed MiG-31s
- 1 destroyed Su-27
- 1 damaged MiG-29
- destroyed fuel and lubricants depot
- destroyed radar and launcher of the S-400 system
Now that looks a succesful attack. Nice.Confirmation on what what destroyed:
- 2 destroyed MiG-31s
- 1 destroyed Su-27
- 1 damaged MiG-29
- destroyed fuel and lubricants depot
- destroyed radar and launcher of the S-400 system
ConnectionError said:
I thought Russia reported that the attack has been unsuccessful with all the missile's being shot down?
The missiles were successfully intercepted by aircraft.Anyone know why Russia would park Aircraft in easy range? I can't believe they're so short of fuel they can't manage the extra 150 miles or so to land them out of range of most stuff? Or do they park them nearby and concentrate their AD?
ConnectionError said:
TopTrump said:
RichFN2 said:
The other night Ukraine attacked a Russian airbase in Crimea using long range ATACMS and now some high-quality satellite imagery of the Belbek airfield has been published.
Confirmation on what what destroyed:
- 2 destroyed MiG-31s
- 1 destroyed Su-27
- 1 damaged MiG-29
- destroyed fuel and lubricants depot
- destroyed radar and launcher of the S-400 system
Now that looks a succesful attack. Nice.Confirmation on what what destroyed:
- 2 destroyed MiG-31s
- 1 destroyed Su-27
- 1 damaged MiG-29
- destroyed fuel and lubricants depot
- destroyed radar and launcher of the S-400 system
Photos of the said systems after the attack:
ConnectionError said:
I thought Russia reported that the attack has been unsuccessful with all the missile's being shot down?
They said the missiles were intercepted, they didn't say what with, but clearly the S400 system intercepted at least 1 missile.This airbase got smacked again last night and it looks like the Black Sea fleet's new base got whacko'd last night too, likely neither are now viable bases to operate from.
The big problem Ukraine has is that Russia is dropping glide bombs on them from planes that are being run from bases that are in range, but also in Russia, so America won't let the flatten those ones. In the north Ukraine couldn't hit the troop concentrations that are now attacking them because they were in Russia. This rubbish needs to stop.
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