Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 5

Yeah. Crimea is now a millstone around Russias neck. It's takes resources to defend but offers no military purpose becaise shipping is so vulnerable.

Wonder how many men Russia can call on still ?

Population is 140 odd million, skewed already to females before the war.

So take off fifty percent females (likely more)

Take off those already dead/maimed/in service

Take off those too old, those too young and those not fit.

Take off those in protected occupations, those who scarpered or would scarper if push came to shove.

That off those who are “connected”

Wonder what the size of the potential pool actually is ?

Probably still sizeable, but not inexhaustible and though the pay is allegedly good, its not much use if you are dead, surely that aspect must be making its way back ?

The only problem with that is that they are using lots of mercenaries from poor countries aligned with Russia - there was a post on it a few pages back. Yes, Russia is creating a demographic problem for itself but a large number of those being fed into the meat grinder are not actually Russian.

50km from the target is about 35 seconds of flight time for a Patriot. The previous attacks were achieved with a radar being located a long way back and the launcher being briefly brought up to near the front line.

The issue is that firstly the Ukrainians don't have that many systems to share and secondly it puts the launcher into a space where it could be spotted by observation drones and targeted by ballistic missiles.

Potentially with F16 the aircraft can spot the ground attack aircraft and then direct a ground launched SAM onto it. Whether the F16's Ukraine get can do this is another matter, though again this would be a good place for NATO allies to provide covert technical support.

Stag is correct - they are causing them some very serious demographic problems if they continue to kill off their own people, hence the heavy use of mercenaries to do the dying for them. Wow, just typing that is terrible - why not let those poor Africans do the dying? Yeah, its easier.... :shudder:

Anyway, the point is that yes, there is a larger population to draw from, but its not as big as you might think. Russia has been facing a massive decline in its demographics before this even started and in order to turn it around, there are some who indicated that this was a justification to invade Ukraine - add to the population and improve the demographics. I doubt it was the 'reason' but I am sure it came into the argument somewhere.

The issue is that if you kill off a certain percentage of key age people in your population, you cant simply replace them and the ripple effect flows as the population ages. Eliminating 1-2M of the Russian male population might not seem much when compared with the 140m population - but its the disproportionate effect though. Most people have children before they are 40, and the majority are 25-35. Of those, you need to add in social situation and ability to have children. A few percentage points drop here means that there isnt the tax payer base to pay for those same 25-35 year olds when they hit 65 or more. And the whole population starts a death spiral! This can lead to a crash and its impossible to recover from it.

While its not the best resource, the Wikipedia page does have a nice graphic showing the ripple effect:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russ...

And Russia suffered back when they had their financial crisis (multiple times). That put a hole in the population and its happening again. The educated professional Russians between 25-35 left the country (estimated to be 1m in total!), adds to the issue - if these people have children, they are likely to stay where they are, permanently leaving the country. However, they are far less likely to have children, even if they return (because its a hellhole) and hey presto, population collapse again!

We in the west complain about declining birth rates and an aging population - Russia has it way worse. They are facing a massive decline in their economy. I havent read this in full, but it makes very worrying reading for Russia:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-russian-eco...

And lets not even entertain the possibility for the Russian Federation to split and they lose even more population? Yikes.

Fascinating how even nearly a decade ago experts could see the population crisis coming and since then Russia has absolutely torpedoed the most optimistic solution projections with this insane war.

Yeah, but you also need to bear in mind that that isn't people sat around waiting for a war to fight. They are all doing productive things in the economy, they're the Russians with specialist knowledge in their oil, gas, mining sectors. They're also the people running criminal gangs and the mafia state and they're the people stopping it kicking off all around Russia's border.

So there's a cost to sending any of those people to die in Ukraine, whether it's direct economic cost, reduced influence elsewhere or the country descending into gang warfare. 1,400 of them died yesterday.

The optimist in me likes to think there's actually a long-term plan behind the de-escalation nonsense, bleed Russia for long enough then wait 20 years and it'll no longer be a nuclear state. Then it can be properly contained for the long-term. In reality what we'll get is a defeat, but not quite enough to adequately contain them, then decades of Skripal-type revenge attacks on the West.

Are these numbers we keep hearing of 1000 to 2000 dead a day true ?

Looks like another boat hit

https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2024/ru...

Speaking to my Russian friends, there is a definite change in the wind when it comes to the war as this has been Ukraine at its weakest. As has been pointed out, even with the battle of the Bulge example. That was a thrust into a strategic area or supply line. No one, not even the Russians have successfully pushed a 640km front and made gains on defensive positions.
This Winter/Spring was supposed to be where they made gains, not just a small town and a field. Even the Russians don't have endless Soviet stuff and as people have pointed out, this year is maximum effort. Everything is being thrown on to the fire both economically and demographically. The problem is where their opponent is at the moment, they are striking oil refineries and Xi is waiting as well.

Its going to be a rocky road next month as the Ukrainians will look to make a thrust at Crimea and this combined with depth into Russia in the South will make the Kremlin have to act, but they don't have Battalions in formation or behind. The Gun run to Moscow showed how thin things are.

I’d argue Operation Bagration was a successful huge fronted assault by the Russians. However, the current lot certainly aren’t capable of this again.
https://the-past.com/feature/operation-bagration/#...