Rental market is utterly broken
Discussion
Slow.Patrol said:
The issue is we really don't have the infrastructure for all these extra people. Not just homes, hospitals, doctors, roads, schools and also water supply and sewage treatment.
The failure is not new homes, it is allowing uncontrolled immigration and the inability of the government to grow GDP without using the housing market and rampant price inflation.
Also last week Government were discussing banning evictions if those on benefits fell behind with their rent. Now no one will be renting to those on benefits. Perhaps a return to rents being paid direct to the landlord?
Someone’s swallowed the KoolAidThe failure is not new homes, it is allowing uncontrolled immigration and the inability of the government to grow GDP without using the housing market and rampant price inflation.
Also last week Government were discussing banning evictions if those on benefits fell behind with their rent. Now no one will be renting to those on benefits. Perhaps a return to rents being paid direct to the landlord?
Pit Pony said:
Is it extra people?
In the last 4 years, 4 couples I know all in thier 50s have split up.
Having split their assets, that is 8 homes with only one person in.
But then you have a lot of big old homes being converted into flats, especially in London. In the last 4 years, 4 couples I know all in thier 50s have split up.
Having split their assets, that is 8 homes with only one person in.
The obvious answer is to convert empty offices into residential.
Pit Pony said:
Slow.Patrol said:
The issue is we really don't have the infrastructure for all these extra people. Not just homes, hospitals, doctors, roads, schools and also water supply and sewage treatment.
The failure is not new homes, it is allowing uncontrolled immigration and the inability of the government to grow GDP without using the housing market and rampant price inflation.
Also last week Government were discussing banning evictions if those on benefits fell behind with their rent. Now no one will be renting to those on benefits. Perhaps a return to rents being paid direct to the landlord?
Is it extra people? The failure is not new homes, it is allowing uncontrolled immigration and the inability of the government to grow GDP without using the housing market and rampant price inflation.
Also last week Government were discussing banning evictions if those on benefits fell behind with their rent. Now no one will be renting to those on benefits. Perhaps a return to rents being paid direct to the landlord?
In the last 4 years, 4 couples I know all in thier 50s have split up.
Having split their assets, that is 8 homes with only one person in.
The numbers are not a secret. Either population or house building.
NomduJour said:
745,000 (legally) immigrated in 2022, that is pretty obviously unsustainable if the housing and infrastructure isn’t there. Real population is likely way higher than the official figures.
To put it into context, thats a city the size of birmingham that needs to be built every two years. Just to keep up. To bring prices, both to buy and rent, would require a significant over supply.Anyone who thinks this is remotely possible is delusional.
Pit Pony said:
Is it extra people?
In the last 4 years, 4 couples I know all in thier 50s have split up.
Having split their assets, that is 8 homes with only one person in.
There was an interesting stat recently about just how much of a major impact this trend has had. Plus, the change at the you get end of more people living alone for longer until moving in with a partner. The population argument isn't as simple as just blaming immigrants or old folk not dying. In the last 4 years, 4 couples I know all in thier 50s have split up.
Having split their assets, that is 8 homes with only one person in.
DonkeyApple said:
There was an interesting stat recently about just how much of a major impact this trend has had. Plus, the change at the you get end of more people living alone for longer until moving in with a partner. The population argument isn't as simple as just blaming immigrants or old folk not dying.
The UK divorce rate has been pretty stable since the 1980s, in fact (IIRC) it has dropped in recent years.Net immigration figures on the other hand have massively and hugely ballooned post 2000, at a rate that's unprecedented in British history.
Olivera said:
DonkeyApple said:
There was an interesting stat recently about just how much of a major impact this trend has had. Plus, the change at the you get end of more people living alone for longer until moving in with a partner. The population argument isn't as simple as just blaming immigrants or old folk not dying.
The UK divorce rate has been pretty stable since the 1980s, in fact (IIRC) it has dropped in recent years.Net immigration figures on the other hand have massively and hugely ballooned post 2000, at a rate that's unprecedented in British history.
Immigration has boomed but then before heading off down that rabbit hole one has to consider age demographics and that due to the massively overweight Boomer generation beginning to leave the work force and the shortage of sufficient working age labour to not just replace them but sustain the means to pay and support them, the only solution was immigration to infill.
This graphic is actually quite useful to see a large part of the issue which was a failure of an entire generation to recognise its size and then get caught out by its spike in longevity. Watch how dramatic the change is at the top:
Your chart also shows the clear reason why we also can't just hang all this on the spike in post Covid immigration given that it shows the data for the period over Covid.
Plus, net is net so one needs to know the migration levels as well as the immigration levels to also obtain clarity.
Some interesting data re families and households: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
And it's worth looking at trends such as single occupant household growth as a function of increased longevity as well as separations
The are many failures and many reasons. Pinning them on one group, the usual group isn't just poor form but continues to absolve those who are truly responsible for not planning for an aging population, not maintaining social and affordable housing levels, not reacting to changes in social trends etc.
Planning system is broke, not enough tradesmen to build more houses, not enough bricks, roof tiles, insulation etc etc to build more houses. A change of government will have no impact for many years. I’m currently renovating a house to make into a HMO, it seems they are becoming more popular as this is the only way many people can afford to rent.
DonkeyApple said:
Olivera said:
DonkeyApple said:
There was an interesting stat recently about just how much of a major impact this trend has had. Plus, the change at the you get end of more people living alone for longer until moving in with a partner. The population argument isn't as simple as just blaming immigrants or old folk not dying.
The UK divorce rate has been pretty stable since the 1980s, in fact (IIRC) it has dropped in recent years.Net immigration figures on the other hand have massively and hugely ballooned post 2000, at a rate that's unprecedented in British history.
Immigration has boomed but then before heading off down that rabbit hole one has to consider age demographics and that due to the massively overweight Boomer generation beginning to leave the work force and the shortage of sufficient working age labour to not just replace them but sustain the means to pay and support them, the only solution was immigration to infill.
This graphic is actually quite useful to see a large part of the issue which was a failure of an entire generation to recognise its size and then get caught out by its spike in longevity. Watch how dramatic the change is at the top:
[Img]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/UK_population_pyramid_from_1950_to_2020.gif[/thumb]
Your chart also shows the clear reason why we also can't just hang all this on the spike in post Covid immigration given that it shows the data for the period over Covid.
Plus, net is net so one needs to know the migration levels as well as the immigration levels to also obtain clarity.
Some interesting data re families and households: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
And it's worth looking at trends such as single occupant household growth as a function of increased longevity as well as separations
The are many failures and many reasons. Pinning them on one group, the usual group isn't just poor form but continues to absolve those who are truly responsible for not planning for an aging population, not maintaining social and affordable housing levels, not reacting to changes in social trends etc.
Demand for housing far exceeds supply, and its getting worse. Where that demand comes from is a mix of issues, but population growth is a big factor.
Yes, you are right that governments used immigration as "infill" as you put it. Your statemt says its the only solution, but id argue it was not even that, because importing x000K of people a year with no viable plan for where they might live is no solution at all.
Im not pinning blame on immigrants, if you open the door, they will come, it lies, as im sure you will agree with government(s). The fact that it does so, just means more of the same.
Which ever way you look at it, we have both a demand and supply issue.
This isn't just a UK issue either, it looks to be global with population expansion.
In the UK I agree private developers will want to keep price's high, but at the same time if they have confidence that they will sell all the homes they produce they will build.
An option could be the UK government committing on buying a certain number of homes for the council house / social housing each year.
In general (and my understanding) governments have the cheapest source of long term funding and could make this happen if the political will was there.
This isn't just a UK issue either, it looks to be global with population expansion.
In the UK I agree private developers will want to keep price's high, but at the same time if they have confidence that they will sell all the homes they produce they will build.
An option could be the UK government committing on buying a certain number of homes for the council house / social housing each year.
In general (and my understanding) governments have the cheapest source of long term funding and could make this happen if the political will was there.
tty flats in old office buildings. LF5335 said:
Government announcement of a GE ends all government business IIRC. Is that the end of the proposed Renters Bill. Section 21 etc gets a new lease of life?
I'm sure most people are assuming if Labour get in they will scrap S21 as soon as they can.The question is how far will they go with things like rent controls.....
BoostMonkey said:
The question is how far will they go with things like rent controls.....
Quite far I'm hoping. With additional contributory measures such as reducing net immigration figures, increasing house building (with sensible liberalisation of planning), and reforming council tax.Olivera said:
Quite far I'm hoping. With additional contributory measures such as reducing net immigration figures, increasing house building (with sensible liberalisation of planning), and reforming council tax.
Where have Labour said they will reduce net immigration numbers (and how)? And where in the western world have rent controls been implemented and worked?
Genuinely interested if there are cases
BoostMonkey said:
LF5335 said:
Government announcement of a GE ends all government business IIRC. Is that the end of the proposed Renters Bill. Section 21 etc gets a new lease of life?
I'm sure most people are assuming if Labour get in they will scrap S21 as soon as they can.The question is how far will they go with things like rent controls.....
BoostMonkey said:
I really would not want to be in my 20's again and looking to rent, sounds like a horrific situation from friends trying to move currently.
We're in our 20's and rented a flat for a year, then a house for two years while saving for our deposit, and we eventually bought the house off of the landlord 2 years ago. We paid £575 in rent which at the time seemed fairly typical.
Recently a few houses in our street have been rented out and they were up for £1100pcm. For a two-bed semi in the midlands....
They weren't empty for long either.
Grotty one-bed flats now going for ~£750.
We seemed to have accidentally timed it right
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