EV used prices (bottom of the market?)

I’ve been keeping half an eye on used EVs (a Tesla Model 3 looks like it would tick a few boxes for me) - but interested in peoples thoughts on where prices might still be heading.

There seems to have been some big price corrections over the last few months. Using one of those Autotrader price tracking extensions for Chrome, some of the price drops from dealers on older stock is a bit of an eye opener.

That said, whilst prices are looking rather tempting - I’m just wondering how much more of a drop we’ll see on these types of vehicles and whether it’s worth sitting it out a bit longer? Or if the market for these sorts of cars have found its level?

Ha. You might well be right :-)

The 2019/2020 Model 3s are starting to look like reasonable value - especially as a little town runaround (school run / shopping).

That said, I’m not in a rush so if prices are going to continue to slide, I’d be happy to hang-fire.

It's not an asset class, there is no bottom of the market, just like a Mondeo they will keep dropping as they age and get superseded by newer models.

Totally agree cars are not an asset class, as such. However, the way that values have tumbled over the last 6months or so does suggest that a price ‘correction’ has occurred (or is occurring) - rather than a more normal reduction of value over time) - if that makes sense.

The bottom of the market is going to occur at that 8 year mark, where the battery warranty expires and they effectively become sheds that are run until they break and then good only for parts.

As to whether or not that bottom will be much lower than the current prices, I have no idea. I'd be looking at it purely as just how much of a drop you could stomach for the total cost of ownership to be comparable or better than your ICE alternative. Personally, I'm looking at an EV6 for £30-35k and if it's worth £10k in 3 years I'll have spent less than our current ICE equivalent family car cost me over the last 3 years. Realistically I expect it to be worth closer to the GFV the finance companies are banding around (£17-18k) and I'll also likely have a significant cost saving (15k miles/yr with most of the charging from solar or night tariff).
My current decision is between buying outright and financing via Oracle or similar for the safety net of a GFV, however the interest rates I'm being quoted (10.9%) eat away at those savings I think if the price dropped too heard I'd just keep it as it's a lot of car for the money and would still have 2 years of warranty left.

Paid £19k for my Model 3 LR with 65k miles in Feb this year from a private seller.

Rare as it has a factory towbar (cannot retrofit these).

Looks like i'd be lucky to get £18k now 5k miles later.

It's saved me £400 in "fuel" in that time, so that helps soften the blow

Hoping to run it for the remainder of the 8 year/120k miles drivetrain warranty (end of 2027) and then either continue to run it or swap it for a newer one, at which point mine should still be worth £10k-£12k or so.

I don't expect it to depreciate by £25k in 3 years, my point is that even if it does I will 'break even' vs my current ICE family car. If it depreciates further then I would've been better sticking with a new lease on an ICE vehicle, if it depreciates less then it's a good financial choice for my criteria.
Realistically, it costs what it costs and I'll hope prices stay relatively strong but with EV tech moving quickly the future values are somewhat of a mystery. I'd like to think the finance companies' GFV's aren't out by a margin of 80% though and I should get some savings.

I must admit they are starting to look attractive. The poster above who bought the 65k one for £19k and plans to run for the drivetrain warranty and either sell or keep illustrates how they can now be a pretty cheap A-B car for a 3-4 year timeframe, if you plan to the traditional buy outright (or part loan, cash) and sell later on vs paying, what, £6-8k per annum on a lease for a new one.

Mine was 50% equity from my prev car. 50% on a 0% balance transfer (with tiny fee). So very little in interest. £250/month for 3 years after the 50% deposit.

On Octopus at 7.5p/kwh it's roughly 5x cheaper than my previous car in "fuel", and that was a hybrid that did 60mpg. It's 10x cheaper than my BMW M2 was to fuel.

I'm assuming in 3 years time when it's fully paid off it'll be worth around £10k (seems pessimistic given Model S prices though), and being a Long Range with dual motors and 400bhp+ i'm thinking there'll always be a market for them, even if just for the drivetrain.

So about £3k/year in depreciation i reckon. Pretty much what i'd expect on a ~£20k car.

54k miles over 3 yrs at 60mpg in the petrol hybrid is £6k in petrol.

54k miles over 3 yrs assuming 95% at home and 5% on public chargers (45p/kwh at tesla superchargers) is £1.5k

So across the 3 yrs there's a £4.5k saving right there, or roughly £120/month.

What's nice is that rather than having a petrol "budget" each month i've just added £30/month onto the elec direct debit, and then i don't really think about fuel as an extra thing i need to budget for.

TBH even if the costs were the same i'd still have the EV. I just prefer it and it's more convenient for my usage as all of my regular journeys are sub-200 miles and i can "fuel" it from my own supply at home rather than having to go to a garage and wait for a pump while Doris does her weekly shop

Though longer journeys are not hard either. I did 1300 miles in one week up to Scotland in the Model 3 last month.

More of a cat person myself, but i do have two quite lanky kids.

Towbar means i can carry bikes and the two "boots" came in handy in scotland.

I take your point though. I don't get why first tesla had to be a saloon. Guessing american market perhaps?