Where its at - FTSE 100
Discussion
Mr XXXX said:
Out of interest crankedup, any reason why you would wish the FTSE 100 to drop to 4995?
He's just a pessimist that starts threads for no obvious reason I think it will be binary:
Greece leaves Euro: 4000
Greece stays in Euro: 6000
figures are purposely rough guesses, but you get the idea. Equities are driven by sentiment (optimism or lack thereof) at the moment.
munky said:
He's just a pessimist that starts threads for no obvious reason
I think it will be binary:
Greece leaves Euro: 4000
Greece stays in Euro: 6000
figures are purposely rough guesses, but you get the idea. Equities are driven by sentiment (optimism or lack thereof) at the moment.
I would have thought that Greece staying in the Euro will be poor for sentiment, as it's a politically unstable country and it will take a log time for confidence in the country to behave is restored.I think it will be binary:
Greece leaves Euro: 4000
Greece stays in Euro: 6000
figures are purposely rough guesses, but you get the idea. Equities are driven by sentiment (optimism or lack thereof) at the moment.
If Greece leaves the Euro, the level of haircut suffered by lenders finalised and the rest of them all pull together, I would expect it to be good for confidence.
In reality, I think even if Greece does leave, Spain, Italy and others will keep the whole thing fidgity, but perhaps less so than if Greece is still involved.
Look at the Nikkei over the last 25 years. Hasn't seemed to help that the Japanese govt has 'stimulated' their economy to the point of getting public debt to nearly 250% of GDP. Its still fallen 75 odd %.
OTOH, the banks that made up much of the FT100 are now mostly penny stocks, so maybe the index is now more weighted towards companies that actually create things rather than profit off usury.
OTOH, the banks that made up much of the FT100 are now mostly penny stocks, so maybe the index is now more weighted towards companies that actually create things rather than profit off usury.
fido said:
12gauge said:
OTOH, the banks that made up much of the FT100 are now mostly penny stocks, so maybe the index is now more weighted towards companies that actually create things rather than profit off usury.
Wow, i didn't realise Robert Peston was a contributor to PH.I'm thinking 5600 to 6000.
The FTSE is an indication of where the market thinks were heading too, not where we're at - it's already deflated because of the Euro problems and Greece, one way or the other that isn't going to a worry by the end of the year.
Greece is a big issue now, but I feel people are worried it might be the tip of the iceberg rather than any great fears about a sick country that represents about 2% of the GDP of Euro Countries leaving the Union.
They'll reg-neg the terms of the bailout, as it seems even Merkel will fold as they need Greece as much as Greece needs the Euro.
Hopefully the recession will be a two quarter only recession and we'll return to modest growth and most EU countries will have their growth plans in place by year-end.
The FTSE is an indication of where the market thinks were heading too, not where we're at - it's already deflated because of the Euro problems and Greece, one way or the other that isn't going to a worry by the end of the year.
Greece is a big issue now, but I feel people are worried it might be the tip of the iceberg rather than any great fears about a sick country that represents about 2% of the GDP of Euro Countries leaving the Union.
They'll reg-neg the terms of the bailout, as it seems even Merkel will fold as they need Greece as much as Greece needs the Euro.
Hopefully the recession will be a two quarter only recession and we'll return to modest growth and most EU countries will have their growth plans in place by year-end.
According to the news today, the markets have factored in a Greek drop out, if thats the case I'm stuffed with my light-hearted forecast. But I don't reckon the market has factored fully the fall out, a 500-600 point drop during the past 12 months, most in the past 3 months is not adding up to the ste storm on its way. Another 400-600 down is my bet.
P-Jay said:
I'm thinking 5600 to 6000.
The FTSE is an indication of where the market thinks were heading too, not where we're at - it's already deflated because of the Euro problems and Greece, one way or the other that isn't going to a worry by the end of the year.
Greece is a big issue now, but I feel people are worried it might be the tip of the iceberg rather than any great fears about a sick country that represents about 2% of the GDP of Euro Countries leaving the Union.
They'll reg-neg the terms of the bailout, as it seems even Merkel will fold as they need Greece as much as Greece needs the Euro.
Hopefully the recession will be a two quarter only recession and we'll return to modest growth and most EU countries will have their growth plans in place by year-end.
Wish I could be as optimistic as that! 18 Summit meetings over the past 18 months and still no further towards reaching an agreed solution. Politicians for you!The FTSE is an indication of where the market thinks were heading too, not where we're at - it's already deflated because of the Euro problems and Greece, one way or the other that isn't going to a worry by the end of the year.
Greece is a big issue now, but I feel people are worried it might be the tip of the iceberg rather than any great fears about a sick country that represents about 2% of the GDP of Euro Countries leaving the Union.
They'll reg-neg the terms of the bailout, as it seems even Merkel will fold as they need Greece as much as Greece needs the Euro.
Hopefully the recession will be a two quarter only recession and we'll return to modest growth and most EU countries will have their growth plans in place by year-end.
crankedup said:
P-Jay said:
I'm thinking 5600 to 6000.
The FTSE is an indication of where the market thinks were heading too, not where we're at - it's already deflated because of the Euro problems and Greece, one way or the other that isn't going to a worry by the end of the year.
Greece is a big issue now, but I feel people are worried it might be the tip of the iceberg rather than any great fears about a sick country that represents about 2% of the GDP of Euro Countries leaving the Union.
They'll reg-neg the terms of the bailout, as it seems even Merkel will fold as they need Greece as much as Greece needs the Euro.
Hopefully the recession will be a two quarter only recession and we'll return to modest growth and most EU countries will have their growth plans in place by year-end.
Wish I could be as optimistic as that! 18 Summit meetings over the past 18 months and still no further towards reaching an agreed solution. Politicians for you!The FTSE is an indication of where the market thinks were heading too, not where we're at - it's already deflated because of the Euro problems and Greece, one way or the other that isn't going to a worry by the end of the year.
Greece is a big issue now, but I feel people are worried it might be the tip of the iceberg rather than any great fears about a sick country that represents about 2% of the GDP of Euro Countries leaving the Union.
They'll reg-neg the terms of the bailout, as it seems even Merkel will fold as they need Greece as much as Greece needs the Euro.
Hopefully the recession will be a two quarter only recession and we'll return to modest growth and most EU countries will have their growth plans in place by year-end.
12gauge said:
Look at the Nikkei over the last 25 years. Hasn't seemed to help that the Japanese govt has 'stimulated' their economy to the point of getting public debt to nearly 250% of GDP. Its still fallen 75 odd %.
I suggest you look at what the stock market valuations/multiples were before that crash...might not seem quite so relevant once you have. DJRC said:
crankedup said:
Indeed P-Jay, even Cameron seems to be accepting the need for growth and siding with Hollande. Never thought I would see a Tory Minister, yet alone Prime Minister, siding up with a French Socialist! Hope yet maybe.
Hope for what?!crankedup said:
DJRC said:
crankedup said:
Indeed P-Jay, even Cameron seems to be accepting the need for growth and siding with Hollande. Never thought I would see a Tory Minister, yet alone Prime Minister, siding up with a French Socialist! Hope yet maybe.
Hope for what?!Stop filtering everything through your ideology and start thinking practically. There are *no* ideologies at play in Europe at the moment, only money and how to get more of it out of Germany. That is the only game in town.
10 Pence Short said:
munky said:
He's just a pessimist that starts threads for no obvious reason
I think it will be binary:
Greece leaves Euro: 4000
Greece stays in Euro: 6000
figures are purposely rough guesses, but you get the idea. Equities are driven by sentiment (optimism or lack thereof) at the moment.
I would have thought that Greece staying in the Euro will be poor for sentiment, as it's a politically unstable country and it will take a log time for confidence in the country to behave is restored.I think it will be binary:
Greece leaves Euro: 4000
Greece stays in Euro: 6000
figures are purposely rough guesses, but you get the idea. Equities are driven by sentiment (optimism or lack thereof) at the moment.
If Greece leaves the Euro, the level of haircut suffered by lenders finalised and the rest of them all pull together, I would expect it to be good for confidence.
In reality, I think even if Greece does leave, Spain, Italy and others will keep the whole thing fidgity, but perhaps less so than if Greece is still involved.
Inside the Euro, Greece is a pain in the rear but small enough to keep on life support.
Greece itself is not really the major concern; it's the spreading of panic to other larger countries.
Anyway, each time a Grexit looks more likely, the FTSE is down. Each time it is less likely, the FTSE is up.
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