How far will house prices fall? [Volume 2]

[DonkeyApple]

NoelWatson said:

"Lowest September mortgage lending for decade"

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/lowes...

Mortgage lending dropped to a 10-year low last month as banks warn there is no more money for borrowers in the foreseeable future.

Does kind of look like the banks have decided that the downside risk is not worth increasing their exposure.

If supply is apparently going up and a lack of mortgages curtails demand, then arguably there is potential for us reaching a tipping point in the next 6 months?

[Digga]

DonkeyApple said:

NoelWatson said:

"Lowest September mortgage lending for decade"

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/lowes...

Mortgage lending dropped to a 10-year low last month as banks warn there is no more money for borrowers in the foreseeable future.

Does kind of look like the banks have decided that the downside risk is not worth increasing their exposure.

If supply is apparently going up and a lack of mortgages curtails demand, then arguably there is potential for us reaching a tipping point in the next 6 months?

Economically, this is a big problem for the government.

Forget housebuilding, construction and property speculators, this has far wider implications.

It means an immobile worksforce.

It means a complete logjam of equity in property - at any price - and a real stagnation in the flow of capital.

It may well have self-fulfilling consequences for a second dip in property prices too, as you suggest.

[NoelWatson]

Digga said:

DonkeyApple said:

NoelWatson said:

"Lowest September mortgage lending for decade"

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/lowes...

Mortgage lending dropped to a 10-year low last month as banks warn there is no more money for borrowers in the foreseeable future.

Does kind of look like the banks have decided that the downside risk is not worth increasing their exposure.

If supply is apparently going up and a lack of mortgages curtails demand, then arguably there is potential for us reaching a tipping point in the next 6 months?

Economically, this is a big problem for the government.

Forget housebuilding, construction and property speculators, this has far wider implications.

It means an immobile worksforce.

It means a complete logjam of equity in property - at any price - and a real stagnation in the flow of capital.

It may well have self-fulfilling consequences for a second dip in property prices too, as you suggest.

The Gunment is to blame for atifically supporting the market

[DonkeyApple]

NoelWatson said:

Digga said:

DonkeyApple said:

NoelWatson said:

"Lowest September mortgage lending for decade"

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/lowes...

Mortgage lending dropped to a 10-year low last month as banks warn there is no more money for borrowers in the foreseeable future.

Does kind of look like the banks have decided that the downside risk is not worth increasing their exposure.

If supply is apparently going up and a lack of mortgages curtails demand, then arguably there is potential for us reaching a tipping point in the next 6 months?

Economically, this is a big problem for the government.

Forget housebuilding, construction and property speculators, this has far wider implications.

It means an immobile worksforce.

It means a complete logjam of equity in property - at any price - and a real stagnation in the flow of capital.

It may well have self-fulfilling consequences for a second dip in property prices too, as you suggest.

The Gunment is to blame for atifically supporting the market

What would be interesting is to know where the increase in supply has appeared from.

Is it from those needing to sell or is it from people who have decided to take their money off the table while the getting is good?

If the latter, and combined with other factors we could be looking at a market where the investors as a collective are no longer believing the hype, thus leading to a rout.

More likely is that uncommitted sellers, if that is the majority, will take their stock off the market and so supply will contract.

[NoelWatson]

DonkeyApple said:

NoelWatson said:

Digga said:

DonkeyApple said:

NoelWatson said:

"Lowest September mortgage lending for decade"

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/mortgages/lowes...

Mortgage lending dropped to a 10-year low last month as banks warn there is no more money for borrowers in the foreseeable future.

Does kind of look like the banks have decided that the downside risk is not worth increasing their exposure.

If supply is apparently going up and a lack of mortgages curtails demand, then arguably there is potential for us reaching a tipping point in the next 6 months?

Economically, this is a big problem for the government.

Forget housebuilding, construction and property speculators, this has far wider implications.

It means an immobile worksforce.

It means a complete logjam of equity in property - at any price - and a real stagnation in the flow of capital.

It may well have self-fulfilling consequences for a second dip in property prices too, as you suggest.

The Gunment is to blame for atifically supporting the market

What would be interesting is to know where the increase in supply has appeared from.

Is it from those needing to sell or is it from people who have decided to take their money off the table while the getting is good?

If the latter, and combined with other factors we could be looking at a market where the investors as a collective are no longer believing the hype, thus leading to a rout.

More likely is that uncommitted sellers, if that is the majority, will take their stock off the market and so supply will contract.

Speaking for my local market I reckon it is a mix of builders that started building when the market "bottomed" last year now selling completed properties, and a large number of homes that didn't sell in the downturn now on at 2007+ prices. This in addition to normal movers.

[Digga]

(I'm not quoting, because the quotes are getting a bit unwieldy.)

There are a number of long-term listings on the local housing market.

This is one such, a few doors away from me, down from a hefty £995k in early 2009 to a (still un-sustainable, ouch) £895k: http://www.johngerman.co.uk/property/for-sale/staf... I get the distinct whift of business issues/MEW/negative equity, although I could be wrong...

I have another neighbour who's just put their place up for sale - son flown the nest and they have vague ideas of relocating to 'somewhere nice to retire' - but are not forced to move and in no means looking for a quick sale.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Yes that place has been up for a while. If you look at that EA's site (which seems to get most of the stuff in the village and nearby) it, and another house in the area, The Ferms, Milford, also with an indoor pool, have stuck around for about 18 months.

The area is fairly afluent but it's mostly retired money with the remainder being spivs like me (but a bit older) with their own businesses. It's not dead, but it's definitely not busy. Added to which, with nearby Stafford being a 'Soviet Twon' I can't see the budget cuts being particularly helpful.

[Magog]

NoelWatson said:

Speaking for my local market I reckon it is a mix of builders that started building when the market "bottomed" last year now selling completed properties, and a large number of homes that didn't sell in the downturn now on at 2007+ prices. This in addition to normal movers.

With market activity being so low there must be a backlog of houses sitting in probate or the subject of divorce proceedings over the last couple of years. Houses from these sources probably won't stop appearing on the market any time soon.

[Targarama]

Digga said:

(I'm not quoting, because the quotes are getting a bit unwieldy.)

There are a number of long-term listings on the local housing market.

This is one such, a few doors away from me, down from a hefty £995k in early 2009 to a (still un-sustainable, ouch) £895k: http://www.johngerman.co.uk/property/for-sale/staf... I get the distinct whift of business issues/MEW/negative equity, although I could be wrong...

I have another neighbour who's just put their place up for sale - son flown the nest and they have vague ideas of relocating to 'somewhere nice to retire' - but are not forced to move and in no means looking for a quick sale.

I know nothing about values in your area, but adverts like that just put me off. Where is the floor plan? Where is the photo from the front/street? In daylight too please. Oh, and a 1980s kitchen and a pool do not a sale make.

[spikeyhead]

Targarama said:

Digga said:

(I'm not quoting, because the quotes are getting a bit unwieldy.)

There are a number of long-term listings on the local housing market.

This is one such, a few doors away from me, down from a hefty £995k in early 2009 to a (still un-sustainable, ouch) £895k: http://www.johngerman.co.uk/property/for-sale/staf... I get the distinct whift of business issues/MEW/negative equity, although I could be wrong...

I have another neighbour who's just put their place up for sale - son flown the nest and they have vague ideas of relocating to 'somewhere nice to retire' - but are not forced to move and in no means looking for a quick sale.

I know nothing about values in your area, but adverts like that just put me off. Where is the floor plan? Where is the photo from the front/street? In daylight too please. Oh, and a 1980s kitchen and a pool do not a sale make.

HIP recieved November 08 also shows everyone reading it that it's been for sale for too long.

[Digga]

Targarama said:

Digga said:

(I'm not quoting, because the quotes are getting a bit unwieldy.)

There are a number of long-term listings on the local housing market.

This is one such, a few doors away from me, down from a hefty £995k in early 2009 to a (still un-sustainable, ouch) £895k: http://www.johngerman.co.uk/property/for-sale/staf... I get the distinct whift of business issues/MEW/negative equity, although I could be wrong...

I have another neighbour who's just put their place up for sale - son flown the nest and they have vague ideas of relocating to 'somewhere nice to retire' - but are not forced to move and in no means looking for a quick sale.

I know nothing about values in your area, but adverts like that just put me off. Where is the floor plan? Where is the photo from the front/street? In daylight too please. Oh, and a 1980s kitchen and a pool do not a sale make.

Your insticts serve you well. The force is strong in you. You will not have your trousers pulled down by an EA anytime soon.

To answer your question, and thereby confirm your suspicions, there is no back garden. The 'back garden' is that decking between the fence and the house that's pictured. The garden shown is out front which, although secluded (and the property is gated) is not ideal for everyone. Certainly an issue with kids/dogs getting under the wheels of stuff coming up the driveway.

It is also the most expensive house on the road IIRC. Yes it's in a really peachy location - it has neighbours either side but to the front and rear ia an AONB - and it also has an indoor pool (mixed blessing) but it just is not worth over £600k, mybee £650k at a stretch IMHO.

[Digga]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Can't remember, but maybe £750k at most. I was feeling more generous then.

Thing is £750k in 2008 might not have been 'enough' if it's a sale forced by business pressures. I canpt help but think that some 'forced sellers' don;t really want to sell and are happy to go with the EA's 'top' valuations.

For comparrison. Neighbour opposite us bought a knock-down to rebuild 3 bed around 2006/7 for £350k. Plot was decent size, although back garden was minimal (not overlooked at rear and has decent views too) and built a very nicely appointed 5 bed place. Must have cost at least £250k - took ages and is a quality job - and I don't think even he expects it to wipe it's own face. It was bought as a home for life, it's in a very nice location (certain neighbours excepted ) and they're there for the long haul...

[GT03ROB]

Targarama said:

Digga said:

(I'm not quoting, because the quotes are getting a bit unwieldy.)

There are a number of long-term listings on the local housing market.

This is one such, a few doors away from me, down from a hefty £995k in early 2009 to a (still un-sustainable, ouch) £895k: http://www.johngerman.co.uk/property/for-sale/staf... I get the distinct whift of business issues/MEW/negative equity, although I could be wrong...

I have another neighbour who's just put their place up for sale - son flown the nest and they have vague ideas of relocating to 'somewhere nice to retire' - but are not forced to move and in no means looking for a quick sale.

I know nothing about values in your area, but adverts like that just put me off. Where is the floor plan? Where is the photo from the front/street? In daylight too please. Oh, and a 1980s kitchen and a pool do not a sale make.

Agree, pictures are very poorly taken, very few of them. there is usually a good reason why photos are not shown. Floor plans are essential. I can;t believe agents still try it on so much. In looking recently the 1st thing I've been doing is locating the place on google earth, then streetview. Genrally enables you to discount most places before you even start.

[Digga]

GT03ROB said:

Targarama said:

Digga said:

(I'm not quoting, because the quotes are getting a bit unwieldy.)

There are a number of long-term listings on the local housing market.

This is one such, a few doors away from me, down from a hefty £995k in early 2009 to a (still un-sustainable, ouch) £895k: http://www.johngerman.co.uk/property/for-sale/staf... I get the distinct whift of business issues/MEW/negative equity, although I could be wrong...

I know nothing about values in your area, but adverts like that just put me off. Where is the floor plan? Where is the photo from the front/street? In daylight too please. Oh, and a 1980s kitchen and a pool do not a sale make.

Agree, pictures are very poorly taken, very few of them. there is usually a good reason why photos are not shown. Floor plans are essential. I can;t believe agents still try it on so much. In looking recently the 1st thing I've been doing is locating the place on google earth, then streetview. Genrally enables you to discount most places before you even start.

To be absolutely fair to this place, it is in a good location and it's very secluded - behind gates & hedges, off a dirt road, parallel to the public road - and in a good location. (You can't Googlemap to roadview either.) It is not an ostentatious property, rather a secluded place.

However the EA's deets are crap and, I agree, theere should be a street shot and defeinietly also a floorplan.

[anonymous-user]

I personally can see prices dropping next year.

A stagnant FTB market, and the fact that a lot of people will lose their jobs over the next few years I cannot see prices going up at all or remaining the same.

[baz1985]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

This Lostock dwelling seems to be a little expensive too.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/prope...

[baz1985]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Agreed, it'd struggle to make £1.5m in Hale.

[whitechief]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

It's fking awful.

[10JH]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

That is an ugly house, both inside and out.

[NoelWatson]

Mortgage approvals up by -1000. Lowest since April 2009.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-21/u-k-mortg...

Edited by NoelWatson on Thursday 21st October 10:14