Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]
Discussion
Blib said:
Spain bond yields have risen to over 7.5% this morning.
As most of us expected, on here I think? But good to see the specifics. What now EU? Von Rumpy and co must be getting desperate they could be missing their August holidays. Good. Its about time the EU started to face reality.
rovermorris999 said:
Driller said:
Well, duh, of course it wasn't 
What are you, his b
h or just a croney?
And what are you? Keep the playground insults to yourself please.What are you, his b
h or just a croney?I wouldn't worry about Driller and his childish insults, they're the result of being perpetually wrong because you refuse to understand the subject. He's just bitter because the euro hasn't worked out the way he hoped.
Oh and while we are at it, Spanish 10yr yields now over 7.5% and another nine regions join the queue to be bailed out by the Govt who of course don't have any money. Things are so bad they've even officially scrapped the siesta! How long until the crowing peacock Rajoy is forced to request a full scalle bail-out?
Andy Zarse said:
..Oh and while we are at it, Spanish 10yr yields now over 7.5% and another nine regions join the queue to be bailed out by the Govt who of course don't have any money. Things are so bad they've even officially scrapped the siesta! How long until the crowing peacock Rajoy is forced to request a full scalle bail-out?
It will not be months/years, I suspect.rovermorris999 said:
Driller said:
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
But it wasn't hindsight when DJRC suggested it.rovermorris999 said:
Driller said:
Well, duh, of course it wasn't
What are you, his bh or just a croney?
And what are you? Keep the playground insults to yourself please.What are you, his b
h or just a croney?That's playground stuff if ever I saw it.
If you want to dish it out make sure you can take it.
And now AndyZarse is sticking his oar in. Do you feel safer in numbers or something?
Pathetic
@DJRC I haven't "missed out on making thousands of pounds" you'll no doubt be very disappointed to hear. I had previously bought pounds in fact, however my dental practice is here, my morgage is here, I'm here to stay in whatever currency they use here, which suits me fine.
So I'm afraid it's still just you losing those thousands every month.
Sorry about that
Driller said:
And now AndyZarse is sticking his oar in. Do you feel safer in numbers or something?
Pathetic
Sorry about that
I thought that's how forums worked; somebody makes an idiotic comment and other people point out its failings. Perhaps we should call this a "sticking your oar in board" rather than a forum? Pathetic
Sorry about that
I've been on this thread from day one, so I'm hardly butting in, although it's instructive to note you're another PHer who uses bafflingly inappropriate smileys at the end of each little dig
Question for the economic historians amongst you
There's a pattern to the timing of economic crises:
Wall Street Crash - Late October 1929
Black Monday - October 19 1987
Lehman Brothers - September 2008
US & European Bank Rescue Plans - October 2008
I've been surprised that the Euro fiasco has been kept afloat for this long, but as nothing structural has changed and as Germany appears reluctant to help meaningfully, and as the socio-economic realities bite in Spain / Greece / Italy, we're possibly in the final phase before the main trigger event
In the UK property world, August is a dead month when all the movers and shakers head off to Tuscany to quaff chianti, and deals are done when they're in September / October
Will the main players in the banking / hedge fund world also enjoy their August breaks and return with a fresh view of the world and decide that enough is enough, and the fun and games really kick off in September/October?
There's a pattern to the timing of economic crises:
Wall Street Crash - Late October 1929
Black Monday - October 19 1987
Lehman Brothers - September 2008
US & European Bank Rescue Plans - October 2008
I've been surprised that the Euro fiasco has been kept afloat for this long, but as nothing structural has changed and as Germany appears reluctant to help meaningfully, and as the socio-economic realities bite in Spain / Greece / Italy, we're possibly in the final phase before the main trigger event
In the UK property world, August is a dead month when all the movers and shakers head off to Tuscany to quaff chianti, and deals are done when they're in September / October
Will the main players in the banking / hedge fund world also enjoy their August breaks and return with a fresh view of the world and decide that enough is enough, and the fun and games really kick off in September/October?
Mart-1 said:
..
Will the main players in the banking / hedge fund world also enjoy their August breaks and return with a fresh view of the world and decide that enough is enough, and the fun and games really kick off in September/October?
It seems they are holding their breath, and holding it together. Only needs one to give up..Will the main players in the banking / hedge fund world also enjoy their August breaks and return with a fresh view of the world and decide that enough is enough, and the fun and games really kick off in September/October?
Andy Zarse said:
I thought that's how forums worked; somebody makes an idiotic comment and other people point out its failings. Perhaps we should call this a "sticking your oar in board" rather than a forum?
I've been on this thread from day one, so I'm hardly butting in, although it's instructive to note you're another PHer who uses bafflingly inappropriate smileys at the end of each little dig
It's got nothing to do with the way forums work. You sniffed the air and got the scent of an attack and like that other fella decided to try to get a sneaky, cowardly bite in.I've been on this thread from day one, so I'm hardly butting in, although it's instructive to note you're another PHer who uses bafflingly inappropriate smileys at the end of each little dig
It's a classic phenomenon here for those where the midbrain rules.
The smileys are sarcasm, sorry if it's confusing
ETA except for the ROFL, that was genuine.Edited by Driller on Monday 23 July 12:18
Mermaid said:
Andy Zarse said:
..Oh and while we are at it, Spanish 10yr yields now over 7.5% and another nine regions join the queue to be bailed out by the Govt who of course don't have any money. Things are so bad they've even officially scrapped the siesta! How long until the crowing peacock Rajoy is forced to request a full scalle bail-out?
It will not be months/years, I suspect.The words "too big to fail, too big to save" are the ones I'm thinking off.
Driller said:
It's got nothing to do with the way forums work. You sniffed the air and got the scent of an attack and like that other fella decided to try to get a sneaky, cowardly bite in.
It's a classic phenomenon here for those where the midbrain rules.
The smileys are sarcasm, sorry if it's confusing
My comment on your use of smileys was similarly sarcastic. So is this one It's a classic phenomenon here for those where the midbrain rules.
The smileys are sarcasm, sorry if it's confusing
I was not surprised to learn you are a dentist, it's a profession stuffed almost exclusively with arrogant, slimy and hopelessly self-unaware folk. All male dentists wear Pringle golfing cardies, a cloak of smugness and have a hereditary overbite. This of course explains the appalling swagger and rudeness when you first showed up on this thread waving your emaciated willy. It also explains your continued refusal to enter into any proper debate. I mean, why bother when you know you're right all along because you can drill a hole in a tooth. No, I could never be friends with a dentist.
Driller said:
Oh God this is tedious, we could go on for ages. Shall we just get it back on topic?
That's the point, you've never been on topic. So okay, try this, a little summary of the current state of play and let's see if you consist of anything more than piss and wind.In a nutshell, Spain’s collapsing economic situation into the vortex of a debt/deflation spiral shows she is repeating Ireland’s and Greece’s mistakes. Her tax-take and economy are heavily negative and her bust banks are also caught in a liquidity trap. There's no sign of relief in sight. For the Euro area this poses a serious problem as the rock of its rescue vehicle (theoratical capacity Eu700BN) faces the hard place of Eu775BN of Spanish central government debt. This is in addition to the requirements of Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Hungary and Portugal, let alone Italy.
We are now at the point where other countries have had to call for help from the Euro area. Spain’s 2yr yield is now at 6.6%. When shorter-dated yields accelerate towards longer-dated ones national bailouts are usually necessary as any issuance of debt immediately implies insolvency. Just to add to the sense of crisis the IBEX has fallen over 10% in two trading days.
In the past the ECB has intervened to support Euro area bond markets in this state of distress. However, the ECB has not been sighted so far. Perhaps it is busy discussing its losses on existing SMP bond purchases
Or perhaps it is balking at the size of purchases that would be necessary to stabilise markets in Spain. Either way, that is where we are. So what in your opinion is the way out of this mess? Discuss...
Germany and a few others should leave the euro. Short-term pain all round then things start getting better quickly. If anyone can adapt to a strong currency, it's Germany. The rest can then depreciate rapidly so all their debts are still in the now-cheaper euro and they regain competitiveness, at least notionally. It would be nice if they restructured and worked a bit harder though.
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