Is the end nigh for the Euro? [vol. 2]
Discussion
vodkalolly said:
fido said:
Or is he is trying to hypothesise that joining the Euro would have been less destructive than Gordon Brown. It's hardly a tantalising alternative? Imagine if had just spent less of the extra revenue during the Boom years and used it pay down Debt?
This boom? Was that the boom that Blair created by borrowing billions and employing lefty sandalists in public sector non jobs? The private sector did not grow at all during the Blair years. Even now the so called private sector growth is being artificially massaged by contracting out public sector jobs to the private sector and claiming these are new jobs. Joining the euro would have burned our boats. Joining the Euro would indeed have been a major mistake.
turbobloke said:
vodkalolly said:
fido said:
Or is he is trying to hypothesise that joining the Euro would have been less destructive than Gordon Brown. It's hardly a tantalising alternative? Imagine if had just spent less of the extra revenue during the Boom years and used it pay down Debt?
This boom? Was that the boom that Blair created by borrowing billions and employing lefty sandalists in public sector non jobs? The private sector did not grow at all during the Blair years. Even now the so called private sector growth is being artificially massaged by contracting out public sector jobs to the private sector and claiming these are new jobs. Joining the euro would have burned our boats. Joining the Euro would indeed have been a major mistake.
David McWilliams said:
The only thing keeping Irish bond prices from collapsing is the assumption that Germany will eventually pay.
The young woman in a burka is clutching a Fendi handbag in one hand and an iPhone 5 in the other. She is surrounded by five friends, who are also in burkas. They are hovering at the entrance to a shoe shop in one of Abu Dhabi’s many large shopping centres. What has caught their eyes is a pair of shoes by Salvatore Ferragamo.
Does the name Salvatore Ferragamo mean anything to you?
If not, he was an Italian shoemaker who understood that there had to be some design in between high heels and flat shoes and, borrowing from the ancient Greeks, came up with the enormously popular and original concept of wedges in the late 1930s.
Obviously the wedges make women (and some men) look taller than they are, without the feeling that they are on narrow stilts. I suppose, at the end of the day, the taller you are, the more attractive you feel. Height allows you to wear different clothes, and you will tend to look slimmer.
By driving a wedge between actual height and desired height, the shoe can improve your overall image, making the best of the material, making wearers feel better about themselves and looking better than would otherwise be the case – or than actually is the case.
As a result, Ferragamo’s wedges were (and still are) huge all over the world, and his basic designs have been copied and re-worked by other shoe designers down through the decades.
As I walked by the crowded shoe shop in Abu Dhabi last Wednesday, a large TV screen tuned into some 24-hour financial channels turned red as stocks across the world plummeted. Just then, the similarity between the wedges and the world’s central banks struck me.
The world’s central banks have been injecting money into the global economic system and, in so doing, driving a wedge between the actual performance of the world economy – which is weak and risky at best – and the observed performance of the world’s financial markets, which are behaving as if the world’s economy is strong, risk is minimal and everything is rosy.
By injecting so much liquidity into the financial system, the world’s central banks are helping to push asset prices way above what is justified by the faltering performance of the underlying economies.
This is obviously a very dangerous game because, like someone wearing wedges to attain a desired height, that person has to keep wearing wedges just to stay there. Similarly, the central banks, led by the Fed, have to keep injecting more and more liquidity simply to keep asset prices where they are.
All across the world, from the Gulf, to China, Europe and of course the US, asset prices have risen and risen, but the old economies in Europe and in the US have not recovered in any material way. In fact, European economies are now going into reverse.
The central banks also know that, quite apart from this wedge between the asset prices and the real economy, if there were to be a crash with investors selling because prices are too high and can’t be justified, the impact on the underlying economy of yet another financial meltdown would be atrocious.
Thus, they are in a monumental bind – they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. They have to keep printing money to avoid a crash, but the more they print, there is a greater risk of that crash they are trying to avoid.
In the Gulf, everything is jaundiced by oil. The economies here are booming, and the fact that the Etihad flights from Dublin are almost always full is yet another signal of the disparity of opportunity between Ireland and certain other parts of the world.
All over this city, Irish accents can be heard, so much so that one lad approached me on the street about an hour ago – a fella I’d never seen before – and asked me what I thought of the performance of the Irish soccer team against Spain.
His story is like that of hundreds of thousands of Irish people, and millions of others in our developed economies. Since 2007, the economies of the west have not been able to hit the reset button. We are unable to emerge from the depths, and unemployment remains far, far too high.
All the while, the emerging economies of the world continue to catch up, and a bigger and bigger proportion of the world’s economic activity is migrating towards east Asia.
Technological changes are also undermining job opportunities in the west and, clearly, paying back ludicrously huge debts is sucking the life out of local demand.
Significantly, the country that appears to be worst affected – and whose predicament the west wants to avoid at all costs – is Japan. Not surprisingly, given Japan’s deflationary slump, money-printing by the Bank of Japan has been more aggressive than in any other country. The Japanese quantitative easing experiment is three times bigger than that of the US.
Because of the sheer size of the Bank of Japan’s money-printing initiative, it is in Japan – still the world’s pre-eminent manufacturer – where the monetary conundrum between asset prices and the real economy is most evident. The higher prices go, the more stretched valuations become, and the greater the risk of a sell-off.
Japan’s demographics have swung against the country and, without local demand, the implication is that Japan has to rob other people’s demand through exports spurred by a much weaker currency.
All this was too much for investors to take last week, and the Japanese financial markets took a hammering. This slump has spread contagiously around the world. People see that the Japanese authorities are in a sort of trap, and the question is whether what started in Japan will end in New York.
Risk has returned and, therefore, risky assets have been sold off. Such risky assets also include government bonds on Europe’s periphery, such as Irish government bonds, because there can be precious few other assets where the disparity between the expensive prices and the stagnant underlying economy is more stark.
The only thing keeping Irish bond prices from collapsing is the assumption that Germany will eventually pay – something the German constitutional court in Karlsruhe, not the Dáil, will decide.
But we’ve been here before. There have been rallies and setbacks in financial markets all the time over the past few years. That said, maybe this time it is different, because there is no escaping the fact that the central banks have driven a wedge between soaring asset prices and the anaemic economy underneath.
Can they do this indefinitely? Or are we, like a woman in Salvatore Ferragamo’s highest wedges, flattering to deceive; knowing full well that, at these ever-elevated heights, the risk of tottering over at a party just keeps on increasing?
The young woman in a burka is clutching a Fendi handbag in one hand and an iPhone 5 in the other. She is surrounded by five friends, who are also in burkas. They are hovering at the entrance to a shoe shop in one of Abu Dhabi’s many large shopping centres. What has caught their eyes is a pair of shoes by Salvatore Ferragamo.
Does the name Salvatore Ferragamo mean anything to you?
If not, he was an Italian shoemaker who understood that there had to be some design in between high heels and flat shoes and, borrowing from the ancient Greeks, came up with the enormously popular and original concept of wedges in the late 1930s.
Obviously the wedges make women (and some men) look taller than they are, without the feeling that they are on narrow stilts. I suppose, at the end of the day, the taller you are, the more attractive you feel. Height allows you to wear different clothes, and you will tend to look slimmer.
By driving a wedge between actual height and desired height, the shoe can improve your overall image, making the best of the material, making wearers feel better about themselves and looking better than would otherwise be the case – or than actually is the case.
As a result, Ferragamo’s wedges were (and still are) huge all over the world, and his basic designs have been copied and re-worked by other shoe designers down through the decades.
As I walked by the crowded shoe shop in Abu Dhabi last Wednesday, a large TV screen tuned into some 24-hour financial channels turned red as stocks across the world plummeted. Just then, the similarity between the wedges and the world’s central banks struck me.
The world’s central banks have been injecting money into the global economic system and, in so doing, driving a wedge between the actual performance of the world economy – which is weak and risky at best – and the observed performance of the world’s financial markets, which are behaving as if the world’s economy is strong, risk is minimal and everything is rosy.
By injecting so much liquidity into the financial system, the world’s central banks are helping to push asset prices way above what is justified by the faltering performance of the underlying economies.
This is obviously a very dangerous game because, like someone wearing wedges to attain a desired height, that person has to keep wearing wedges just to stay there. Similarly, the central banks, led by the Fed, have to keep injecting more and more liquidity simply to keep asset prices where they are.
All across the world, from the Gulf, to China, Europe and of course the US, asset prices have risen and risen, but the old economies in Europe and in the US have not recovered in any material way. In fact, European economies are now going into reverse.
The central banks also know that, quite apart from this wedge between the asset prices and the real economy, if there were to be a crash with investors selling because prices are too high and can’t be justified, the impact on the underlying economy of yet another financial meltdown would be atrocious.
Thus, they are in a monumental bind – they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. They have to keep printing money to avoid a crash, but the more they print, there is a greater risk of that crash they are trying to avoid.
In the Gulf, everything is jaundiced by oil. The economies here are booming, and the fact that the Etihad flights from Dublin are almost always full is yet another signal of the disparity of opportunity between Ireland and certain other parts of the world.
All over this city, Irish accents can be heard, so much so that one lad approached me on the street about an hour ago – a fella I’d never seen before – and asked me what I thought of the performance of the Irish soccer team against Spain.
His story is like that of hundreds of thousands of Irish people, and millions of others in our developed economies. Since 2007, the economies of the west have not been able to hit the reset button. We are unable to emerge from the depths, and unemployment remains far, far too high.
All the while, the emerging economies of the world continue to catch up, and a bigger and bigger proportion of the world’s economic activity is migrating towards east Asia.
Technological changes are also undermining job opportunities in the west and, clearly, paying back ludicrously huge debts is sucking the life out of local demand.
Significantly, the country that appears to be worst affected – and whose predicament the west wants to avoid at all costs – is Japan. Not surprisingly, given Japan’s deflationary slump, money-printing by the Bank of Japan has been more aggressive than in any other country. The Japanese quantitative easing experiment is three times bigger than that of the US.
Because of the sheer size of the Bank of Japan’s money-printing initiative, it is in Japan – still the world’s pre-eminent manufacturer – where the monetary conundrum between asset prices and the real economy is most evident. The higher prices go, the more stretched valuations become, and the greater the risk of a sell-off.
Japan’s demographics have swung against the country and, without local demand, the implication is that Japan has to rob other people’s demand through exports spurred by a much weaker currency.
All this was too much for investors to take last week, and the Japanese financial markets took a hammering. This slump has spread contagiously around the world. People see that the Japanese authorities are in a sort of trap, and the question is whether what started in Japan will end in New York.
Risk has returned and, therefore, risky assets have been sold off. Such risky assets also include government bonds on Europe’s periphery, such as Irish government bonds, because there can be precious few other assets where the disparity between the expensive prices and the stagnant underlying economy is more stark.
The only thing keeping Irish bond prices from collapsing is the assumption that Germany will eventually pay – something the German constitutional court in Karlsruhe, not the Dáil, will decide.
But we’ve been here before. There have been rallies and setbacks in financial markets all the time over the past few years. That said, maybe this time it is different, because there is no escaping the fact that the central banks have driven a wedge between soaring asset prices and the anaemic economy underneath.
Can they do this indefinitely? Or are we, like a woman in Salvatore Ferragamo’s highest wedges, flattering to deceive; knowing full well that, at these ever-elevated heights, the risk of tottering over at a party just keeps on increasing?
Well no-one can have failed to notice that it has been 2 years to the day since this topic, and the suggestion (and hope!) that the end was imminent for the Euro, started.
I thus feel it is entirely fair to post two things both of which I posted before but hey, this is an anniversary
The first is a summary of Steffan's predictions about the Euro with dates, which to be fair, makes for amusing reading
Sadly they only go up to Feb 2012 as I didn't have the time to do the rest but you get the idea and things continued as they started.
The second is a little ditty I stole and modified from the Late, Great Peter Cook.
All done in good spirit Brother Steffan!
Friday 17th June 2011
"Certainly within 6 months and very possibly much less the other PIGS Ireland Portugal and Spain will need another bail out and reality will set in."
Saturday 18th June 2011
"Seems my timeframe of August for the Greek collapse is still looking reasonable."
Sunday 19th June 2011
"I anticipate the refunding of Greece short term: by August the Greek economy will collapse and fall out of the Euro. "
Then on Monday 20th June 2011
"August is my date for Greek Collapse but I could out by some months."
The on Friday 1st July 2011 we’re back to:
"Greece is going bust big time. I think August anyone disagree?"
Monday 4th July 2011
"Looks like the end is nigh for Greece. August crunch looks right to me"
Monday 18th July 2011
"About four more weeks I think or there abouts."
Monday 18th July 2011
"The Euro will be very weak shortly."
Tuesday 19th July 2011
"Therefore the PIIGS are doomed"
Wednesday 20th July 2011
"Or they could simply refuse further aid in which case Greek will default next week."
Friday 22nd July 2011
" the Greeks will be out of the Euro in a nonth and chaos will follow"
Friday 29th July 2011
"Within three months and possibly considerably less this will be back to face Europe"
Monday 1st August 2011
"I still believe this Greek crisis will reappear before the end of August."
Wednesday 3rd August 2011
"My view still is that the PIGS or possibly PIIIGS will collapse in Domino order before the end of the month."
"As others on this forum are saying this cannot go on. FOUR WEEKS!!"
Thursday 4th August 2011
"The PIIGS are going bust very shortly. "
Friday 5th August 2011
"As I said a while ago August 2011 will be the crunch time."
Saturday 13th August 2011
"How long do you think? Days? Weeks? Surely not months?"
Tuesday 16th August 2011
"I think the PIIGS are going down very shortly."
"The run on the PIIGS happening NOW."
Then the end of August arrives:
Thursday 25th August 2011 and it's back to:
" I still think this Autumn."
"PIIGS collapse here we come."
Sunday 28th August 2011
"Weeks? Yes I think so. Days? Very possibly"
Monday 29th August 2011
"I think the end is nigh for the PIIGS."
"There will be a run of the PIIGS probably starting with Greece. Now. "
August comes and goes
Monday 5th September 2011
"I think the crunch is almost upon us. "
Wednesday 7th September 2011
"This will be end shorty I think. "
Sunday 11th September 2011
"Greece will collapse shortly. "
Monday 12th September 2011
"Default is coming."
Tuesday 13th September 2011
"PIIGS are bust."
Tuesday 13th September 2011
"The end IS nigh"
Wednesday 14th September 2011
"Well its all coming thick and fast this morning The PIIGS are going. "
Thursday 15th September 2011
"Too little too late. The disaster is upon them. THE PIIGS ARE GOING."
Thursday 15th September 2011
"The PIIGS are gone"
Sunday 18th September 2011
"I am sorry to say the end is nigh."
Monday 19th September 2011
"Over the next month the inevitability of a Greek default will become apparent"
Tuesday 20th September 2011
"the PIIGS will begin unwinding shortly. "
Wednesday 21st September 2011
"I think the fall of the PIIGS is actually upon us."
"Greece will naturally fail to deliver the proposed savings and fold in October or November"
Friday 23rd September 2011
"Greece and Ireland are both Dead Ducks. Not long I think."
Friday 23rd September 2011
"The next tranche of Euro funds (charity?) to Greece is due in early October I believe. If this is paid Greece could last another month. If it is not paid I doubt if Greece could function for more than a few days"
Saturday 1st October 2011
"This month?"
Monday 3rd October 2011
"the crunch now cometh and October seems a long month for the PIIGS to me. "
Thursday 6th October 2011
"In my view Greece will go first followed by the rest: the crunch is coming."
Thursday 20th October 2011
"Not long now before the effluent hits the fan."
Friday 21st October 2011
"Greece will lead the PIIGS out of Europe very shortly."
Saturday 22nd October 2011
"NOT LONG NOW."
The end of October comes and goes.
Monday 16th January 2012
"It will be pissing down shortly. Then a flood of Biblical proportions."
Thursday 19th January 2012
"the point of collapse is rapidly approaching"
Monday 13th February 2012
"Not Long."
Tuesday 14th February 2012
"Default is rapidly approaching."
"I think the Greeks will default. Shortly."
"the Greeks will default. Late March IMO"
Turbobloke :
How will it be, this end of the Euro of which you have spoken, Brother?
Digga:
Yes, how will it be?
Steffan:
Well, it will be, as 'twere a mighty rending in the markets, you see, and the Euro rate shall sink, you see, and the Sterling shall rise, you see, and great shall be the tumult thereof.
Turbobloke:
Will the flag of the European parliment be rent in twain?
Steffan :
The flag of the European parliment will be rent in twain about two minutes before we see the sign of the manifest flying beast-head in the sky.
Gary11 :
And will there be a mighty wind of austerity, Brother?
Steffan :
Certainly there will be a mighty wind of austerity, if the word of God is anything to go by...
Andy Zarse:
And will this wind be so mighty as to lay low the multinationals of the earth?
Steffan:
No - it will not be quite as mighty as that - that is why we have come up to the world headquaters, you stupid nit - to be safe from it. Up here at headquaters we shall be safe - safe as banks.
Gary11 :
And what will happen to the banks?
Steffan :
Well, naturally, the banks will be swept away and the offshore accounts of the ungodly with them, and they will all be consuméd by the power of the credit crunch - and serve them right!
Gary11 :
And shall we go bust??
[Steffan[/b] :
B-u-s-t? No, we shall not go bust - we shall be at company headquaters here, you see, while millions go broke, having a bit of a giggle.
Turbo Bloke :
When will it be, this end of which you have spoken?
Digga :
Aye, when will it be - when will it be?
Steffan :
This autumn, according to my calcultions... and my Ingersoll watch.
Turbo Bloke :
Shall we compose ourselves and talk about it on PH then?
Steffan :
Good plan, Brother Bloke. Prepare for the End of the Euro! Just a few months now...
Gary11 :
Have we got the tinned food?
Andy Zarse:
Yes
Steffan :
Just a few weeks to go...
Turbo Bloke :
And the tin-opener?
Andy Zarse :
Yes.
Steffan :
Five - four - three - two - one - Zero!
Digga :
(Chanting) Now is the end - Perish The Euro!
A pause
Steffan :
It was GMT, wasn't it?
Turbo Bloke :
Yes.
Steffan :
Well, it's not quite the conflagration I'd been banking on. Never mind, lads, same time tomorrow... we must get a winner one day.
I thus feel it is entirely fair to post two things both of which I posted before but hey, this is an anniversary
The first is a summary of Steffan's predictions about the Euro with dates, which to be fair, makes for amusing reading
Sadly they only go up to Feb 2012 as I didn't have the time to do the rest but you get the idea and things continued as they started.The second is a little ditty I stole and modified from the Late, Great Peter Cook.
All done in good spirit Brother Steffan!
Friday 17th June 2011
"Certainly within 6 months and very possibly much less the other PIGS Ireland Portugal and Spain will need another bail out and reality will set in."
Saturday 18th June 2011
"Seems my timeframe of August for the Greek collapse is still looking reasonable."
Sunday 19th June 2011
"I anticipate the refunding of Greece short term: by August the Greek economy will collapse and fall out of the Euro. "
Then on Monday 20th June 2011
"August is my date for Greek Collapse but I could out by some months."
The on Friday 1st July 2011 we’re back to:
"Greece is going bust big time. I think August anyone disagree?"
Monday 4th July 2011
"Looks like the end is nigh for Greece. August crunch looks right to me"
Monday 18th July 2011
"About four more weeks I think or there abouts."
Monday 18th July 2011
"The Euro will be very weak shortly."
Tuesday 19th July 2011
"Therefore the PIIGS are doomed"
Wednesday 20th July 2011
"Or they could simply refuse further aid in which case Greek will default next week."
Friday 22nd July 2011
" the Greeks will be out of the Euro in a nonth and chaos will follow"
Friday 29th July 2011
"Within three months and possibly considerably less this will be back to face Europe"
Monday 1st August 2011
"I still believe this Greek crisis will reappear before the end of August."
Wednesday 3rd August 2011
"My view still is that the PIGS or possibly PIIIGS will collapse in Domino order before the end of the month."
"As others on this forum are saying this cannot go on. FOUR WEEKS!!"
Thursday 4th August 2011
"The PIIGS are going bust very shortly. "
Friday 5th August 2011
"As I said a while ago August 2011 will be the crunch time."
Saturday 13th August 2011
"How long do you think? Days? Weeks? Surely not months?"
Tuesday 16th August 2011
"I think the PIIGS are going down very shortly."
"The run on the PIIGS happening NOW."
Then the end of August arrives:
Thursday 25th August 2011 and it's back to:
" I still think this Autumn."
"PIIGS collapse here we come."
Sunday 28th August 2011
"Weeks? Yes I think so. Days? Very possibly"
Monday 29th August 2011
"I think the end is nigh for the PIIGS."
"There will be a run of the PIIGS probably starting with Greece. Now. "
August comes and goes
Monday 5th September 2011
"I think the crunch is almost upon us. "
Wednesday 7th September 2011
"This will be end shorty I think. "
Sunday 11th September 2011
"Greece will collapse shortly. "
Monday 12th September 2011
"Default is coming."
Tuesday 13th September 2011
"PIIGS are bust."
Tuesday 13th September 2011
"The end IS nigh"
Wednesday 14th September 2011
"Well its all coming thick and fast this morning The PIIGS are going. "
Thursday 15th September 2011
"Too little too late. The disaster is upon them. THE PIIGS ARE GOING."
Thursday 15th September 2011
"The PIIGS are gone"
Sunday 18th September 2011
"I am sorry to say the end is nigh."
Monday 19th September 2011
"Over the next month the inevitability of a Greek default will become apparent"
Tuesday 20th September 2011
"the PIIGS will begin unwinding shortly. "
Wednesday 21st September 2011
"I think the fall of the PIIGS is actually upon us."
"Greece will naturally fail to deliver the proposed savings and fold in October or November"
Friday 23rd September 2011
"Greece and Ireland are both Dead Ducks. Not long I think."
Friday 23rd September 2011
"The next tranche of Euro funds (charity?) to Greece is due in early October I believe. If this is paid Greece could last another month. If it is not paid I doubt if Greece could function for more than a few days"
Saturday 1st October 2011
"This month?"
Monday 3rd October 2011
"the crunch now cometh and October seems a long month for the PIIGS to me. "
Thursday 6th October 2011
"In my view Greece will go first followed by the rest: the crunch is coming."
Thursday 20th October 2011
"Not long now before the effluent hits the fan."
Friday 21st October 2011
"Greece will lead the PIIGS out of Europe very shortly."
Saturday 22nd October 2011
"NOT LONG NOW."
The end of October comes and goes.
Monday 16th January 2012
"It will be pissing down shortly. Then a flood of Biblical proportions."
Thursday 19th January 2012
"the point of collapse is rapidly approaching"
Monday 13th February 2012
"Not Long."
Tuesday 14th February 2012
"Default is rapidly approaching."
"I think the Greeks will default. Shortly."
"the Greeks will default. Late March IMO"
Turbobloke :
How will it be, this end of the Euro of which you have spoken, Brother?
Digga:
Yes, how will it be?
Steffan:
Well, it will be, as 'twere a mighty rending in the markets, you see, and the Euro rate shall sink, you see, and the Sterling shall rise, you see, and great shall be the tumult thereof.
Turbobloke:
Will the flag of the European parliment be rent in twain?
Steffan :
The flag of the European parliment will be rent in twain about two minutes before we see the sign of the manifest flying beast-head in the sky.
Gary11 :
And will there be a mighty wind of austerity, Brother?
Steffan :
Certainly there will be a mighty wind of austerity, if the word of God is anything to go by...
Andy Zarse:
And will this wind be so mighty as to lay low the multinationals of the earth?
Steffan:
No - it will not be quite as mighty as that - that is why we have come up to the world headquaters, you stupid nit - to be safe from it. Up here at headquaters we shall be safe - safe as banks.
Gary11 :
And what will happen to the banks?
Steffan :
Well, naturally, the banks will be swept away and the offshore accounts of the ungodly with them, and they will all be consuméd by the power of the credit crunch - and serve them right!
Gary11 :
And shall we go bust??
[Steffan[/b] :
B-u-s-t? No, we shall not go bust - we shall be at company headquaters here, you see, while millions go broke, having a bit of a giggle.
Turbo Bloke :
When will it be, this end of which you have spoken?
Digga :
Aye, when will it be - when will it be?
Steffan :
This autumn, according to my calcultions... and my Ingersoll watch.
Turbo Bloke :
Shall we compose ourselves and talk about it on PH then?
Steffan :
Good plan, Brother Bloke. Prepare for the End of the Euro! Just a few months now...
Gary11 :
Have we got the tinned food?
Andy Zarse:
Yes
Steffan :
Just a few weeks to go...
Turbo Bloke :
And the tin-opener?
Andy Zarse :
Yes.
Steffan :
Five - four - three - two - one - Zero!
Digga :
(Chanting) Now is the end - Perish The Euro!
A pause
Steffan :
It was GMT, wasn't it?
Turbo Bloke :
Yes.
Steffan :
Well, it's not quite the conflagration I'd been banking on. Never mind, lads, same time tomorrow... we must get a winner one day.
Edited by Driller on Monday 17th June 20:01
Edited by Driller on Monday 17th June 21:23
ArtDir is of course absolutely correct in his presentation of the article onto PH which clearly displays the reality of the abject insolvency in both the Irish Banks and sadly in the Irish Economy in itself. However the idiots lining their own pockets in the EU as Politicians (all self serving apparatchiks to a man( a)nd continue to pretend that all is well because they are financially rewarded by doing so. In reality there must be an economic adjustment to permanently reflect that whole swathes of the EU are no longer in any sense solvent including Spain, Portugal and Greece to name but three of the most obvious failures in the EU.
What does surprise and sadden me is the number of economic pundits and observers both within and without the EU who are keeping faith with the EU delusion, nowing perfectly well that it is a delusion, because it suits them. In reality any serious observer of EU economic must realise that, from the evidence provided by the EU itself, none of the insolvent failing states in the EU who are being held within the EU only by weekly subsidy from the solvent EU states in massive sums, can actually recover their economic equilibrium whist locked within a currency which their economies cannot afford.
There may be a delay in the collapse of these failing states. But from the moment when the EU decided that Cyprus should snaffle the funds exceeding £100,000 on deposit in the Cypriot Banks and insisted that the Cyprus Banks remained closed to all withdrawals until that money had been snaffled by the Cypriot government the die was cast in making every perceptive observer aware of just where this must inevitably lead.
Remarkably enough the EU have managed to both disown the responsibility and salve the immediate consequences with the aid of the compliant journalists and concerned investors and markets. No one wants a complete collapse of the EU or the Euro. Such a horrendous prospect is beyond the thinking powers of most of the observers. But if these hopelessly overborrowed insolvent sovereign states continue to roll on borrowing more and more when they cannot even afford the interest on the loans they are taking on in desperation, there can only be one result. The wheel will come off.
What does surprise and sadden me is the number of economic pundits and observers both within and without the EU who are keeping faith with the EU delusion, nowing perfectly well that it is a delusion, because it suits them. In reality any serious observer of EU economic must realise that, from the evidence provided by the EU itself, none of the insolvent failing states in the EU who are being held within the EU only by weekly subsidy from the solvent EU states in massive sums, can actually recover their economic equilibrium whist locked within a currency which their economies cannot afford.
There may be a delay in the collapse of these failing states. But from the moment when the EU decided that Cyprus should snaffle the funds exceeding £100,000 on deposit in the Cypriot Banks and insisted that the Cyprus Banks remained closed to all withdrawals until that money had been snaffled by the Cypriot government the die was cast in making every perceptive observer aware of just where this must inevitably lead.
Remarkably enough the EU have managed to both disown the responsibility and salve the immediate consequences with the aid of the compliant journalists and concerned investors and markets. No one wants a complete collapse of the EU or the Euro. Such a horrendous prospect is beyond the thinking powers of most of the observers. But if these hopelessly overborrowed insolvent sovereign states continue to roll on borrowing more and more when they cannot even afford the interest on the loans they are taking on in desperation, there can only be one result. The wheel will come off.
longblackcoat said:
Steffan said:
We're DOOMED!!
The patient is so sick that the borrowers are enjoyed the luxury of almost zero % base rates, and savers ravaged.
Driller said:
Well no-one can have failed to notice that it has been 2 years to the day since this topic, and the suggestion (and hope!) that the end was imminent for the Euro, started.
I thus feel it is entirely fair to post two things both of which I posted before but hey, this is an anniversary
The first is a summary of Steffan's predictions about the Euro with dates, which to be fair, makes for amusing reading Sadly they only go up to Feb 2012 as I didn't have the time to do the rest but you get the idea and things continued as they started.
The second is a little ditty I stole and modified from the Late, Great Peter Cook.
All done in good spirit Brother Steffan!
Friday 17th June 2011
"Certainly within 6 months and very possibly much less the other PIGS Ireland Portugal and Spain will need another bail out and reality will set in."
Saturday 18th June 2011
"Seems my timeframe of August for the Greek collapse is still looking reasonable."
Sunday 19th June 2011
"I anticipate the refunding of Greece short term: by August the Greek economy will collapse and fall out of the Euro. "
Then on Monday 20th June 2011
"August is my date for Greek Collapse but I could out by some months."
The on Friday 1st July 2011 we’re back to:
"Greece is going bust big time. I think August anyone disagree?"
Monday 4th July 2011
"Looks like the end is nigh for Greece. August crunch looks right to me"
Monday 18th July 2011
"About four more weeks I think or there abouts."
Monday 18th July 2011
"The Euro will be very weak shortly."
Tuesday 19th July 2011
"Therefore the PIIGS are doomed"
Wednesday 20th July 2011
"Or they could simply refuse further aid in which case Greek will default next week."
Friday 22nd July 2011
" the Greeks will be out of the Euro in a nonth and chaos will follow"
Friday 29th July 2011
"Within three months and possibly considerably less this will be back to face Europe"
Monday 1st August 2011
"I still believe this Greek crisis will reappear before the end of August."
Wednesday 3rd August 2011
"My view still is that the PIGS or possibly PIIIGS will collapse in Domino order before the end of the month."
"As others on this forum are saying this cannot go on. FOUR WEEKS!!"
Thursday 4th August 2011
"The PIIGS are going bust very shortly. "
Friday 5th August 2011
"As I said a while ago August 2011 will be the crunch time."
Saturday 13th August 2011
"How long do you think? Days? Weeks? Surely not months?"
Tuesday 16th August 2011
"I think the PIIGS are going down very shortly."
"The run on the PIIGS happening NOW."
Then the end of August arrives:
Thursday 25th August 2011 and it's back to:
" I still think this Autumn."
"PIIGS collapse here we come."
Sunday 28th August 2011
"Weeks? Yes I think so. Days? Very possibly"
Monday 29th August 2011
"I think the end is nigh for the PIIGS."
"There will be a run of the PIIGS probably starting with Greece. Now. "
August comes and goes
Monday 5th September 2011
"I think the crunch is almost upon us. "
Wednesday 7th September 2011
"This will be end shorty I think. "
Sunday 11th September 2011
"Greece will collapse shortly. "
Monday 12th September 2011
"Default is coming."
Tuesday 13th September 2011
"PIIGS are bust."
Tuesday 13th September 2011
"The end IS nigh"
Wednesday 14th September 2011
"Well its all coming thick and fast this morning The PIIGS are going. "
Thursday 15th September 2011
"Too little too late. The disaster is upon them. THE PIIGS ARE GOING."
Thursday 15th September 2011
"The PIIGS are gone"
Sunday 18th September 2011
"I am sorry to say the end is nigh."
Monday 19th September 2011
"Over the next month the inevitability of a Greek default will become apparent"
Tuesday 20th September 2011
"the PIIGS will begin unwinding shortly. "
Wednesday 21st September 2011
"I think the fall of the PIIGS is actually upon us."
"Greece will naturally fail to deliver the proposed savings and fold in October or November"
Friday 23rd September 2011
"Greece and Ireland are both Dead Ducks. Not long I think."
Friday 23rd September 2011
"The next tranche of Euro funds (charity?) to Greece is due in early October I believe. If this is paid Greece could last another month. If it is not paid I doubt if Greece could function for more than a few days"
Saturday 1st October 2011
"This month?"
Monday 3rd October 2011
"the crunch now cometh and October seems a long month for the PIIGS to me. "
Thursday 6th October 2011
"In my view Greece will go first followed by the rest: the crunch is coming."
Thursday 20th October 2011
"Not long now before the effluent hits the fan."
Friday 21st October 2011
"Greece will lead the PIIGS out of Europe very shortly."
Saturday 22nd October 2011
"NOT LONG NOW."
The end of October comes and goes.
Monday 16th January 2012
"It will be pissing down shortly. Then a flood of Biblical proportions."
Thursday 19th January 2012
"the point of collapse is rapidly approaching"
Monday 13th February 2012
"Not Long."
Tuesday 14th February 2012
"Default is rapidly approaching."
"I think the Greeks will default. Shortly."
"the Greeks will default. Late March IMO"
Turbobloke :
How will it be, this end of the Euro of which you have spoken, Brother?
Digga:
Yes, how will it be?
Steffan:
Well, it will be, as 'twere a mighty rending in the markets, you see, and the Euro rate shall sink, you see, and the Sterling shall rise, you see, and great shall be the tumult thereof.
Turbobloke:
Will the flag of the European parliment be rent in twain?
Steffan :
The flag of the European parliment will be rent in twain about two minutes before we see the sign of the manifest flying beast-head in the sky.
Gary11 :
And will there be a mighty wind of austerity, Brother?
Steffan :
Certainly there will be a mighty wind of austerity, if the word of God is anything to go by...
Andy Zarse:
And will this wind be so mighty as to lay low the multinationals of the earth?
Steffan:
No - it will not be quite as mighty as that - that is why we have come up to the world headquaters, you stupid nit - to be safe from it. Up here at headquaters we shall be safe - safe as banks.
Gary11 :
And what will happen to the banks?
Steffan :
Well, naturally, the banks will be swept away and the offshore accounts of the ungodly with them, and they will all be consuméd by the power of the credit crunch - and serve them right!
Gary11 :
And shall we go bust??
[Steffan[/b] :
B-u-s-t? No, we shall not go bust - we shall be at company headquaters here, you see, while millions go broke, having a bit of a giggle.
Turbo Bloke :
When will it be, this end of which you have spoken?
Digga :
Aye, when will it be - when will it be?
Steffan :
This autumn, according to my calcultions... and my Ingersoll watch.
Turbo Bloke :
Shall we compose ourselves and talk about it on PH then?
Steffan :
Good plan, Brother Bloke. Prepare for the End of the Euro! Just a few months now...
Gary11 :
Have we got the tinned food?
Andy Zarse:
Yes
Steffan :
Just a few weeks to go...
Turbo Bloke :
And the tin-opener?
Andy Zarse :
Yes.
Steffan :
Five - four - three - two - one - Zero!
Digga :
(Chanting) Now is the end - Perish The Euro!
A pause
Steffan :
It was GMT, wasn't it?
Turbo Bloke :
Yes.
Steffan :
Well, it's not quite the conflagration I'd been banking on. Never mind, lads, same time tomorrow... we must get a winner one day.
Oi I don't remember those quotes of mine did I say that??I thus feel it is entirely fair to post two things both of which I posted before but hey, this is an anniversary
The first is a summary of Steffan's predictions about the Euro with dates, which to be fair, makes for amusing reading
Sadly they only go up to Feb 2012 as I didn't have the time to do the rest but you get the idea and things continued as they started.The second is a little ditty I stole and modified from the Late, Great Peter Cook.
All done in good spirit Brother Steffan!
Friday 17th June 2011
"Certainly within 6 months and very possibly much less the other PIGS Ireland Portugal and Spain will need another bail out and reality will set in."
Saturday 18th June 2011
"Seems my timeframe of August for the Greek collapse is still looking reasonable."
Sunday 19th June 2011
"I anticipate the refunding of Greece short term: by August the Greek economy will collapse and fall out of the Euro. "
Then on Monday 20th June 2011
"August is my date for Greek Collapse but I could out by some months."
The on Friday 1st July 2011 we’re back to:
"Greece is going bust big time. I think August anyone disagree?"
Monday 4th July 2011
"Looks like the end is nigh for Greece. August crunch looks right to me"
Monday 18th July 2011
"About four more weeks I think or there abouts."
Monday 18th July 2011
"The Euro will be very weak shortly."
Tuesday 19th July 2011
"Therefore the PIIGS are doomed"
Wednesday 20th July 2011
"Or they could simply refuse further aid in which case Greek will default next week."
Friday 22nd July 2011
" the Greeks will be out of the Euro in a nonth and chaos will follow"
Friday 29th July 2011
"Within three months and possibly considerably less this will be back to face Europe"
Monday 1st August 2011
"I still believe this Greek crisis will reappear before the end of August."
Wednesday 3rd August 2011
"My view still is that the PIGS or possibly PIIIGS will collapse in Domino order before the end of the month."
"As others on this forum are saying this cannot go on. FOUR WEEKS!!"
Thursday 4th August 2011
"The PIIGS are going bust very shortly. "
Friday 5th August 2011
"As I said a while ago August 2011 will be the crunch time."
Saturday 13th August 2011
"How long do you think? Days? Weeks? Surely not months?"
Tuesday 16th August 2011
"I think the PIIGS are going down very shortly."
"The run on the PIIGS happening NOW."
Then the end of August arrives:
Thursday 25th August 2011 and it's back to:
" I still think this Autumn."
"PIIGS collapse here we come."
Sunday 28th August 2011
"Weeks? Yes I think so. Days? Very possibly"
Monday 29th August 2011
"I think the end is nigh for the PIIGS."
"There will be a run of the PIIGS probably starting with Greece. Now. "
August comes and goes
Monday 5th September 2011
"I think the crunch is almost upon us. "
Wednesday 7th September 2011
"This will be end shorty I think. "
Sunday 11th September 2011
"Greece will collapse shortly. "
Monday 12th September 2011
"Default is coming."
Tuesday 13th September 2011
"PIIGS are bust."
Tuesday 13th September 2011
"The end IS nigh"
Wednesday 14th September 2011
"Well its all coming thick and fast this morning The PIIGS are going. "
Thursday 15th September 2011
"Too little too late. The disaster is upon them. THE PIIGS ARE GOING."
Thursday 15th September 2011
"The PIIGS are gone"
Sunday 18th September 2011
"I am sorry to say the end is nigh."
Monday 19th September 2011
"Over the next month the inevitability of a Greek default will become apparent"
Tuesday 20th September 2011
"the PIIGS will begin unwinding shortly. "
Wednesday 21st September 2011
"I think the fall of the PIIGS is actually upon us."
"Greece will naturally fail to deliver the proposed savings and fold in October or November"
Friday 23rd September 2011
"Greece and Ireland are both Dead Ducks. Not long I think."
Friday 23rd September 2011
"The next tranche of Euro funds (charity?) to Greece is due in early October I believe. If this is paid Greece could last another month. If it is not paid I doubt if Greece could function for more than a few days"
Saturday 1st October 2011
"This month?"
Monday 3rd October 2011
"the crunch now cometh and October seems a long month for the PIIGS to me. "
Thursday 6th October 2011
"In my view Greece will go first followed by the rest: the crunch is coming."
Thursday 20th October 2011
"Not long now before the effluent hits the fan."
Friday 21st October 2011
"Greece will lead the PIIGS out of Europe very shortly."
Saturday 22nd October 2011
"NOT LONG NOW."
The end of October comes and goes.
Monday 16th January 2012
"It will be pissing down shortly. Then a flood of Biblical proportions."
Thursday 19th January 2012
"the point of collapse is rapidly approaching"
Monday 13th February 2012
"Not Long."
Tuesday 14th February 2012
"Default is rapidly approaching."
"I think the Greeks will default. Shortly."
"the Greeks will default. Late March IMO"
Turbobloke :
How will it be, this end of the Euro of which you have spoken, Brother?
Digga:
Yes, how will it be?
Steffan:
Well, it will be, as 'twere a mighty rending in the markets, you see, and the Euro rate shall sink, you see, and the Sterling shall rise, you see, and great shall be the tumult thereof.
Turbobloke:
Will the flag of the European parliment be rent in twain?
Steffan :
The flag of the European parliment will be rent in twain about two minutes before we see the sign of the manifest flying beast-head in the sky.
Gary11 :
And will there be a mighty wind of austerity, Brother?
Steffan :
Certainly there will be a mighty wind of austerity, if the word of God is anything to go by...
Andy Zarse:
And will this wind be so mighty as to lay low the multinationals of the earth?
Steffan:
No - it will not be quite as mighty as that - that is why we have come up to the world headquaters, you stupid nit - to be safe from it. Up here at headquaters we shall be safe - safe as banks.
Gary11 :
And what will happen to the banks?
Steffan :
Well, naturally, the banks will be swept away and the offshore accounts of the ungodly with them, and they will all be consuméd by the power of the credit crunch - and serve them right!
Gary11 :
And shall we go bust??
[Steffan[/b] :
B-u-s-t? No, we shall not go bust - we shall be at company headquaters here, you see, while millions go broke, having a bit of a giggle.
Turbo Bloke :
When will it be, this end of which you have spoken?
Digga :
Aye, when will it be - when will it be?
Steffan :
This autumn, according to my calcultions... and my Ingersoll watch.
Turbo Bloke :
Shall we compose ourselves and talk about it on PH then?
Steffan :
Good plan, Brother Bloke. Prepare for the End of the Euro! Just a few months now...
Gary11 :
Have we got the tinned food?
Andy Zarse:
Yes
Steffan :
Just a few weeks to go...
Turbo Bloke :
And the tin-opener?
Andy Zarse :
Yes.
Steffan :
Five - four - three - two - one - Zero!
Digga :
(Chanting) Now is the end - Perish The Euro!
A pause
Steffan :
It was GMT, wasn't it?
Turbo Bloke :
Yes.
Steffan :
Well, it's not quite the conflagration I'd been banking on. Never mind, lads, same time tomorrow... we must get a winner one day.
Edited by Driller on Monday 17th June 20:01
Edited by Driller on Monday 17th June 21:23
Odd to see there is no mention of the imminent private bondholders haircut that savers in the Co-oP bank are about to enjoy.
Mismanagement on a grand scale.
Driller, I think you will find Greece did collapse. Tell us again what were the private bondholders haircuts to bail out Greece, and how much Money has the EU pumped into Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland specifically in order to prevent Steffans predictions coming true ?
Steffan has been correct at everystage, except for his inability to apply a politicians mind to "the project" left to rational, capitalist and logical principles they would have junked the currency two years ago.
Or pehaps you could post the unemployment figures for those mentioned coutries ?
Nice post, factually correct, but kind of missing the point don't you think ?
Mismanagement on a grand scale.
Driller, I think you will find Greece did collapse. Tell us again what were the private bondholders haircuts to bail out Greece, and how much Money has the EU pumped into Greece, Spain, Italy and Ireland specifically in order to prevent Steffans predictions coming true ?
Steffan has been correct at everystage, except for his inability to apply a politicians mind to "the project" left to rational, capitalist and logical principles they would have junked the currency two years ago.
Or pehaps you could post the unemployment figures for those mentioned coutries ?
Nice post, factually correct, but kind of missing the point don't you think ?
Gary11 said:
Oi I don't remember those quotes of mine did I say that??
hey i didnt even get an honourary mention for dissent!fbrs Friday 11th January
i hate to say it but i think euro is going to have a good year... its often said 'don't fight the fed', sell euros this year and you're taking on the ecb, fed, boe, boj and snb... good luck with that
longblackcoat said:
Gargamel said:
Steffan has been correct at everystage, except for his inability to apply a politicians mind to "the project" left to rational, capitalist and logical principles they would have junked the currency two years ago.
Kind of a big thing to forget, that one.Gargamel said:
Steffan has been correct at everystage, except for his inability to apply a politicians mind to "the project" left to rational, capitalist and logical principles they would have junked the currency two years ago.
This reminds me of something I read today. I have just finished Adam Fergusson's "When Money Dies" and part of the conclusion is:"What really broke Germany was the constant taking of the soft political option in respect of money. The take-off point therefore was not a financial but a moral one; and the political excuse was despicable, for no imaginable political circumstances could have been more unsuited to the imposition of a new financial order than those pertaining to November 1923, when inflation was no longer an option. The rentenmark was itself hardly more than an expedient then, and could scarcely have been introduced successfully had not the mark lost its entire meaning. Stability came only when the abyss had been plumbed, when the credible mark could fall no more, when everything that four years of financial cowardice, wrong-headedness and mismanagement had been fashioned to avoid had in fact taken place, when the inconceivable had ineluctably arrived."
Driller said:
Well no-one can have failed to notice that it has been 2 years to the day since this topic, and the suggestion (and hope!) that the end was imminent for the Euro, started.
Well spotted Driller!You've saved me a lot of effort as I was hanging on for "page 500" (which will in fact be "page 1,000") to make very similar points.
Hopefully a long-awaited recovery will see all of this fade into the background. Massive unemployment among the under-25s will otherwise be a huge political issue, and that's the case whether the troubled countries remain within the Euro or don't.
Ozzie Osmond said:
Driller said:
Well no-one can have failed to notice that it has been 2 years to the day since this topic, and the suggestion (and hope!) that the end was imminent for the Euro, started.
Well spotted Driller!You've saved me a lot of effort as I was hanging on for "page 500" (which will in fact be "page 1,000") to make very similar points.
Hopefully a long-awaited recovery will see all of this fade into the background. Massive unemployment among the under-25s will otherwise be a huge political issue, and that's the case whether the troubled countries remain within the Euro or don't.
Quite a few of them are now finished too.
Ozzie Osmond said:
Driller said:
Well no-one can have failed to notice that it has been 2 years to the day since this topic, and the suggestion (and hope!) that the end was imminent for the Euro, started.
Well spotted Driller!You've saved me a lot of effort as I was hanging on for "page 500" (which will in fact be "page 1,000") to make very similar points.
Hopefully a long-awaited recovery will see all of this fade into the background. Massive unemployment among the under-25s will otherwise be a huge political issue, and that's the case whether the troubled countries remain within the Euro or don't.
most of the countries are in it for what they can get out of it , when the UK leaves it will fall apart, its only a matter of time but it will happen.
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