CV19 - Cure Worse Than The Disease? (Vol 19)
Discussion
andyeds1234 said:
I honestly think you are attempting a discussion with someone who would benefit from discussing his thoughts with a caring professional.
If you truly think so, I wonder why you continue to insist on dropping all those jibes as I wouldn't personally be quite so comfortable knowing I was intentionally goading someone who was that troubled. Ymmv though.isaldiri said:
Elysium said:
There is something we don’t understand though. New York and Bergamo were affected early and a much larger proportion of people died than we saw in other geographies.
Similarly, in the UK we saw a reasonable number of serious illnesses in healthcare professionals in that first wave.
Neither of these things repeated later, at least not on the same scale.
It doesn’t seem to me that this is just down to a large number of infections in an immunologically naive population. Something else is in play. It’s been suggested that classification of causes of death was a large part of the problem in New York. But we still don’t really know why the situation in Bergamo became so bad so quickly.
My view at this point is that our early treatment protocols may have actually been quite harmful. There was a document produced by the ‘medics of Wuhan’ which had a bunch of smiley Chinese people pictured and set out some of the treatments they had found to work. I’ve looked for it more recently but can’t find it.
I do remember the ER doctor in New York though who said intubation was doing more harm than good.
I am not suggesting there is blame here. It’s just odd still that these initial interactions with COVID seemed so much more severe for younger people.
My take is that a much larger proportion of people died in bergamo and things became much more serious because much more of the population were infected in that first wave compared to say London or other regions of italy. No idea why that might have been so but the level of deaths over winter 2020/21 subsequently imo does point to that and total deaths exclude any classification issues. That level/proportion of deaths was then not subsequently repeated elsewhere as covid more fully pass throug the population as by then, the vaccines had provided first exposure so it was relatively less serious when infected amongst the elderly (pre omicron anyway as after which the severity was significantly reduced anyway). Not sure about NY though so if i have the time later I'll have a closer look if it seems similar to bergamo/Lombardy.Similarly, in the UK we saw a reasonable number of serious illnesses in healthcare professionals in that first wave.
Neither of these things repeated later, at least not on the same scale.
It doesn’t seem to me that this is just down to a large number of infections in an immunologically naive population. Something else is in play. It’s been suggested that classification of causes of death was a large part of the problem in New York. But we still don’t really know why the situation in Bergamo became so bad so quickly.
My view at this point is that our early treatment protocols may have actually been quite harmful. There was a document produced by the ‘medics of Wuhan’ which had a bunch of smiley Chinese people pictured and set out some of the treatments they had found to work. I’ve looked for it more recently but can’t find it.
I do remember the ER doctor in New York though who said intubation was doing more harm than good.
I am not suggesting there is blame here. It’s just odd still that these initial interactions with COVID seemed so much more severe for younger people.
While i don't at all disagree that early treatment protocols especially wrt to invasive ventilation might well have made things worse - but it also doesn't change that many were needing that additional emergency treatment in the first place. which kind of brings me back to the point that a (potentially much) greater proportion of people there did get infected early compared to other places.
Don't have much of an opinion re healthcare professional infections though as I don't think much is at all clear on that, even now. I wonder though if it's not a combination of reporting of what was obviously an extremely stressful situation for some of them at the coalface plus the suggestion as made by some scientists that initial infection dose being received by those was likely far higher early on without all the later precautions so would mean a more severe case if then infected.
As far as the rest of the younger general population having a bit severe time with covid early is concerned though, that was imo far more a case of intentional exaggeration of severity in that group by the public health authorities to better urge compliance because there was clear evidence right from the start that the younger age groups were going to be very much less affected per early wuhan data.
That would point to it having started rather earlier than thought. I do remember that at the time it was reported that the region had a high population of Chinese immigrants working in manufacturing industries.
I do also tend to agree that reporting bias could explain the rather hysterical presentation of the risks to younger people early in the pandemic compared to what later followed.
It’s difficult because the numbers are small, but of course any death of a medic in that first wave was massive news.
jameswills said:
Elysium said:
So the young chap I met in the barbers who was shuffling around like an old man after being intubated for a month didn’t exist?
When was that? We weren’t allowed in the barbers for 4 months. So in that time he was intubated, then recovered and recounted his story to you?Did you follow what his life was like during that period?
If you don’t call bulls
t on this, you’ve got to question your own sanity. Or….. you’re making stuff up. The state he was in rather shocked me and caused me to look into the damage intubation does.
jameswills said:
Elysium said:
It is fascinating that there is very little discussion of the bizarre videos from China that emerged in the early days.
The number of deaths in Bergamo and New York are also still something of a mystery, although there are people looking into the New York numbers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-mystery-why...
45,000 deaths in a population of 8.5million equates to a population fatality rate of 0.5%. About 70% higher than the UK.
Or none of it happened. That’s the actual truth. When we looked out the window in 2020, did anyone see people dying in the streets? How many of your friends and relatives died or were even remotely ill in that time? For me, none.The number of deaths in Bergamo and New York are also still something of a mystery, although there are people looking into the New York numbers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-mystery-why...
45,000 deaths in a population of 8.5million equates to a population fatality rate of 0.5%. About 70% higher than the UK.
Elysium said:
It does make sense that the Bergamo death toll might be due to a wave of infection affecting a large proportion of the population.
That would point to it having started rather earlier than thought. I do remember that at the time it was reported that the region had a high population of Chinese immigrants working in manufacturing industries.
Not really sure it started earlier than thought either tbh. The istat data shows all the deaths heavily concentrated in March and April 2020. If covid has started much earlier, the deaths would have shown up before then. That would point to it having started rather earlier than thought. I do remember that at the time it was reported that the region had a high population of Chinese immigrants working in manufacturing industries.
I tend to think the early reports about chinese immigrants were ultimately incorrect as well tbh - while I certainly did believe that initially when the UK was being touted as being '2 weeks behind' (which I wrongly as it turned out didn't agree with) but looking back at things later without the lens of some quite fevered speculation at that time, given what happened in Madrid and parts of London and indeed Cremona (seemingly very different economic characteristics to Bergamo despite proximity and no obvious Chinese manufacturing link that stands to scrutiny), it seems more a case of circumstances being favourable for large scale infections (crowded indoor spaces with infections then spilling over into households/care homes). for whatever reason, Bergamo/Cremona (almost as hard hit in spring2020) just got those circumstances where it passed through most of the population very early and very quickly.
isaldiri said:
Elysium said:
It does make sense that the Bergamo death toll might be due to a wave of infection affecting a large proportion of the population.
That would point to it having started rather earlier than thought. I do remember that at the time it was reported that the region had a high population of Chinese immigrants working in manufacturing industries.
Not really sure it started earlier than thought either tbh. The istat data shows all the deaths heavily concentrated in March and April 2020. If covid has started much earlier, the deaths would have shown up before then. That would point to it having started rather earlier than thought. I do remember that at the time it was reported that the region had a high population of Chinese immigrants working in manufacturing industries.
I tend to think the early reports about chinese immigrants were ultimately incorrect as well tbh - while I certainly did believe that initially when the UK was being touted as being '2 weeks behind' (which I wrongly as it turned out didn't agree with) but looking back at things later without the lens of some quite fevered speculation at that time, given what happened in Madrid and parts of London and indeed Cremona (seemingly very different economic characteristics to Bergamo despite proximity and no obvious Chinese manufacturing link that stands to scrutiny), it seems more a case of circumstances being favourable for large scale infections (crowded indoor spaces with infections then spilling over into households/care homes). for whatever reason, Bergamo/Cremona (almost as hard hit in spring2020) just got those circumstances where it passed through most of the population very early and very quickly.
The official argument will be that lockdown saved us from this sort of explosive wave of infections. But Sweden shows us that lockdown was not necessary.
We have previously agreed that behaviour change slowed infection in the UK. So it sort of follows that simply knowing what was coming was enough to change it. In which case Bergamo shows what happens when you are blindsided.
Elysium said:
jameswills said:
Elysium said:
It is fascinating that there is very little discussion of the bizarre videos from China that emerged in the early days.
The number of deaths in Bergamo and New York are also still something of a mystery, although there are people looking into the New York numbers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-mystery-why...
45,000 deaths in a population of 8.5million equates to a population fatality rate of 0.5%. About 70% higher than the UK.
Or none of it happened. That’s the actual truth. When we looked out the window in 2020, did anyone see people dying in the streets? How many of your friends and relatives died or were even remotely ill in that time? For me, none.The number of deaths in Bergamo and New York are also still something of a mystery, although there are people looking into the New York numbers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-mystery-why...
45,000 deaths in a population of 8.5million equates to a population fatality rate of 0.5%. About 70% higher than the UK.
Elysium said:
I think this reinforces for me that there are some things we still don’t fully understand about what happened.
The official argument will be that lockdown saved us from this sort of explosive wave of infections. But Sweden shows us that lockdown was not necessary.
We have previously agreed that behaviour change slowed infection in the UK. So it sort of follows that simply knowing what was coming was enough to change it. In which case Bergamo shows what happens when you are blindsided.
I'd agree with most of that, the behaviour change needed to reduce covid infections greatly was not that difficult to achieve and it definitely did not require lockdown restrictions. However that does go back to the original problem that covid was I suppose ie being a political and social one - Starting from how early to implement restrictions that would do so and to what level of restrictions such that the numbers infected/dying remains 'acceptable'. As I've said before, I'm not sure the answer to that from the general public in today's world is necessarily one we might agree with......The official argument will be that lockdown saved us from this sort of explosive wave of infections. But Sweden shows us that lockdown was not necessary.
We have previously agreed that behaviour change slowed infection in the UK. So it sort of follows that simply knowing what was coming was enough to change it. In which case Bergamo shows what happens when you are blindsided.
mko9 said:
Most likely the damage was done by the intubation, not Covid. (Not saying he didn't have Covid)
Well, that is indeed possible but without intubation if covid kills you then that damage is the lesser evil I suppose...isaldiri said:
Elysium said:
I think this reinforces for me that there are some things we still don’t fully understand about what happened.
The official argument will be that lockdown saved us from this sort of explosive wave of infections. But Sweden shows us that lockdown was not necessary.
We have previously agreed that behaviour change slowed infection in the UK. So it sort of follows that simply knowing what was coming was enough to change it. In which case Bergamo shows what happens when you are blindsided.
I'd agree with most of that, the behaviour change needed to reduce covid infections greatly was not that difficult to achieve and it definitely did not require lockdown restrictions. However that does go back to the original problem that covid was I suppose ie being a political and social one - Starting from how early to implement restrictions that would do so and to what level of restrictions such that the numbers infected/dying remains 'acceptable'. As I've said before, I'm not sure the answer to that from the general public in today's world is necessarily one we might agree with......The official argument will be that lockdown saved us from this sort of explosive wave of infections. But Sweden shows us that lockdown was not necessary.
We have previously agreed that behaviour change slowed infection in the UK. So it sort of follows that simply knowing what was coming was enough to change it. In which case Bergamo shows what happens when you are blindsided.
isaldiri said:
mko9 said:
Most likely the damage was done by the intubation, not Covid. (Not saying he didn't have Covid)
Well, that is indeed possible but without intubation if covid kills you then that damage is the lesser evil I suppose...mko9 said:
Most likely the damage was done by the intubation, not Covid. (Not saying he didn't have Covid)
I think most of the damage was caused by intubation. I had not realised that people on ventilators need to be put in medically induced comas so they don’t fight the machine.
He had spent over a month like that.
I do think that survival rates increased later in COVID as less people were treated this way.
Following on from Isaldiri’s point I also had a really interesting chat on a night out a couple of weeks ago. Over the last couple of years COVID had been avoided as a topic, but our group got talking about how strange it all was.
One chap said that if anyone tried to impose a lockdown do one would comply. I was surprised that everyone in the group agreed.
Whether that is the case or not in practice, it does seem to me that many people are starting to see that our response was somewhat hysterical.
Edited by Elysium on Saturday 18th May 11:26
alangla said:
While I can accept that things like Dexamethasone took a while to discover as a treatment, it still seems odd that something as extreme as forced ventilation was initially preferred as a treatment to the high volume oxygen that appeared to be favoured later. One would have thought that ventilation would have been a last resort after everything else had been tried.
I suppose there must have been a reason why the medics defaulted to invasive ventilation so quickly rather than just relying on high flow oxygen - perhaps experience from sars1 or similar from severe flu cases? One of the actual medical bods (chromegrill perhaps should he ever deign to drop in to do more than just hand out one of his lectures to the ignorant) would have been far better placed to answer it. All things considered though, as far as early treatment protocol was concerned, I'm still of the opinion whatever was done was being done for the best of intentions even if it ultimately ended up not working so I don't really think that should be faulted. Certainly not as much as some of the other public health cockups.... That said, it would certainly be of interest to know how much pushback there might have been from icu doctors though to that early use.....
I remember this Doctor from New York very clearly.
He walked out of the emergency room as he was not prepared to keep putting patients on ventilators when it didn’t seem to help:
The condition he describes is exactly what Pneumothorax talked about in the early volumes of this thread. Patients with silent hypoxia. Conscious and breathing, but with blood oxygen levels that were not compatible with life.
Discussed further here:
https://time.com/5820556/ventilators-covid-19/
He walked out of the emergency room as he was not prepared to keep putting patients on ventilators when it didn’t seem to help:
The condition he describes is exactly what Pneumothorax talked about in the early volumes of this thread. Patients with silent hypoxia. Conscious and breathing, but with blood oxygen levels that were not compatible with life.
Discussed further here:
https://time.com/5820556/ventilators-covid-19/
Edited by Elysium on Saturday 18th May 20:27
jshell said:
And yesterday, finally, the NIH actually admitted to funding GoF on viruses at the Wuhan lab.
https://nypost.com/2024/05/16/us-news/nih-director...
I knew about that and was discussing it with my neighbour (who also knew about it) in mid 2020. Did you also know that the World Military Games, were held in Wuhan in 2019, and that there were outbreaks of Covid 19 then, which were subsequently spread around the World?https://nypost.com/2024/05/16/us-news/nih-director...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_...
Elysium said:
jameswills said:
Elysium said:
It is fascinating that there is very little discussion of the bizarre videos from China that emerged in the early days.
The number of deaths in Bergamo and New York are also still something of a mystery, although there are people looking into the New York numbers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-mystery-why...
45,000 deaths in a population of 8.5million equates to a population fatality rate of 0.5%. About 70% higher than the UK.
Or none of it happened. That’s the actual truth. When we looked out the window in 2020, did anyone see people dying in the streets? How many of your friends and relatives died or were even remotely ill in that time? For me, none.The number of deaths in Bergamo and New York are also still something of a mystery, although there are people looking into the New York numbers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-mystery-why...
45,000 deaths in a population of 8.5million equates to a population fatality rate of 0.5%. About 70% higher than the UK.
jameswills said:
Elysium said:
So the young chap I met in the barbers who was shuffling around like an old man after being intubated for a month didn’t exist?
When was that? We weren’t allowed in the barbers for 4 months. So in that time he was intubated, then recovered and recounted his story to you?Did you follow what his life was like during that period?
If you don’t call bulls
t on this, you’ve got to question your own sanity. Or….. you’re making stuff up. andyeds1234 said:
Elysium said:
jameswills said:
Elysium said:
It is fascinating that there is very little discussion of the bizarre videos from China that emerged in the early days.
The number of deaths in Bergamo and New York are also still something of a mystery, although there are people looking into the New York numbers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-mystery-why...
45,000 deaths in a population of 8.5million equates to a population fatality rate of 0.5%. About 70% higher than the UK.
Or none of it happened. That’s the actual truth. When we looked out the window in 2020, did anyone see people dying in the streets? How many of your friends and relatives died or were even remotely ill in that time? For me, none.The number of deaths in Bergamo and New York are also still something of a mystery, although there are people looking into the New York numbers.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-mystery-why...
45,000 deaths in a population of 8.5million equates to a population fatality rate of 0.5%. About 70% higher than the UK.
andyA700 said:
jshell said:
And yesterday, finally, the NIH actually admitted to funding GoF on viruses at the Wuhan lab.
https://nypost.com/2024/05/16/us-news/nih-director...
I knew about that and was discussing it with my neighbour (who also knew about it) in mid 2020. Did you also know that the World Military Games, were held in Wuhan in 2019, and that there were outbreaks of Covid 19 then, which were subsequently spread around the World?https://nypost.com/2024/05/16/us-news/nih-director...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_...
andyA700 said:
jameswills said:
Elysium said:
So the young chap I met in the barbers who was shuffling around like an old man after being intubated for a month didn’t exist?
When was that? We weren’t allowed in the barbers for 4 months. So in that time he was intubated, then recovered and recounted his story to you?Did you follow what his life was like during that period?
If you don’t call bulls
t on this, you’ve got to question your own sanity. Or….. you’re making stuff up. jameswills said:
andyA700 said:
jameswills said:
Elysium said:
So the young chap I met in the barbers who was shuffling around like an old man after being intubated for a month didn’t exist?
When was that? We weren’t allowed in the barbers for 4 months. So in that time he was intubated, then recovered and recounted his story to you?Did you follow what his life was like during that period?
If you don’t call bulls
t on this, you’ve got to question your own sanity. Or….. you’re making stuff up. Ironically, the only person who has insulted anyone in this exchange is andyA700
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