Bright future, next installment...
Discussion
The problems go back to the Nearns era. The 7s business is essentially a lifestyle business (not talking about what "caterham" now means). It's never going to get significant growth and has no essential bigger better future. The future was a good living for its owners, employment for staff and a fantastic but extraordinarily niche car for their customers. The proposition was to keep that going as long as possible, battling through ever increasing legislation until it becomes impossible. Then the business would shrink and depart this mortal coil.
The "but" is that the Nearns decided they didn't want a lifestyle business any more and had an opportunity to turn it into a lump of cash. Good on them, their right as business owners.
The madness started when the VC (or is it PE) came in. They generally buy businesses to sell them at a future point for more money. That doesn't work with lifestyle businesses. So Corven (or what ever the right name was), bought the wrong business. They bought a lifestyle business on the back on a daft plan from AA and co to turn it into a more valuable business. Now it may not have been a daft plan, I've never seen it, but there was no sight of a clever grand plan to build a properly bigger better business with more products to more customers.
Then through a good slice of luck (good or bad depending on your perspective), AA and Corven found a sucker with an even madder plan and got shot to TF. Corven got their return I suspect, AA got his options and bonuses and then it's on to a plan madder than mad Jock McMad.
Will the 7 appear unscathed out of all this? Well stranger things have happened. At the point when the whole Caterham empire stands for something else, maybe a "new Lotus" with an F1 business, an engineering business, a composites business, a Caterham-Alpine business, sat there will be an unloved, unwanted 7s product and business. Just ready for someone to come along and buy the old product line, breath some life into it and create another lifestyle business making and selling 300 7s a year.
Sounds just the thing I'd like to do. I'll call my business "Epsom Cars". Anyone want to buy an "Epsom Super 7"?
Now where did I put TF's phone number...
The "but" is that the Nearns decided they didn't want a lifestyle business any more and had an opportunity to turn it into a lump of cash. Good on them, their right as business owners.
The madness started when the VC (or is it PE) came in. They generally buy businesses to sell them at a future point for more money. That doesn't work with lifestyle businesses. So Corven (or what ever the right name was), bought the wrong business. They bought a lifestyle business on the back on a daft plan from AA and co to turn it into a more valuable business. Now it may not have been a daft plan, I've never seen it, but there was no sight of a clever grand plan to build a properly bigger better business with more products to more customers.
Then through a good slice of luck (good or bad depending on your perspective), AA and Corven found a sucker with an even madder plan and got shot to TF. Corven got their return I suspect, AA got his options and bonuses and then it's on to a plan madder than mad Jock McMad.
Will the 7 appear unscathed out of all this? Well stranger things have happened. At the point when the whole Caterham empire stands for something else, maybe a "new Lotus" with an F1 business, an engineering business, a composites business, a Caterham-Alpine business, sat there will be an unloved, unwanted 7s product and business. Just ready for someone to come along and buy the old product line, breath some life into it and create another lifestyle business making and selling 300 7s a year.
Sounds just the thing I'd like to do. I'll call my business "Epsom Cars". Anyone want to buy an "Epsom Super 7"?
Now where did I put TF's phone number...
In a sense I don't mind poor service from Caterham. It has always been the case. Since my first purchase in 1996 it's been like that. Things like the badge really make no difference at all. I can't seem them as a sign of impending doom. Being ignored on stands, no sales guy following up. Has always been so.
It seems to me that all current Caterham customer are bought into what Caterham currently stands for. By current I mean before the TF aquisition. A fantastic single highly niche product put together from core own design components and the best of the parts bins.
The BIG problem is now there is a big (and as I said, mad) new plan. I think that if it works out it might be great for what is the new Caterham organization (all of it). But it's just really really different than what the current customers (7 owners) value. My guess of the chances of success are one in 10 at best.
So looking at the outcomes...
New Caterham plan succeeds (whatever it is). The 7 will be completely marginalised as a product. TF will sell it.
New Caterham plan fails. The 7 will be an asset that gets sold.
Nasty, bumbling middle ground. Neither success nor failure. A mish-mash of half-arsed ideas and failed efforts to get products and race series to market. A shock of poorly designed badges, promises that aren't kept, old execs out, new execs in, accountants in charge
Nothing happens and the 7 gradually fades away.
Bert
It seems to me that all current Caterham customer are bought into what Caterham currently stands for. By current I mean before the TF aquisition. A fantastic single highly niche product put together from core own design components and the best of the parts bins.
The BIG problem is now there is a big (and as I said, mad) new plan. I think that if it works out it might be great for what is the new Caterham organization (all of it). But it's just really really different than what the current customers (7 owners) value. My guess of the chances of success are one in 10 at best.
So looking at the outcomes...
New Caterham plan succeeds (whatever it is). The 7 will be completely marginalised as a product. TF will sell it.
New Caterham plan fails. The 7 will be an asset that gets sold.
Nasty, bumbling middle ground. Neither success nor failure. A mish-mash of half-arsed ideas and failed efforts to get products and race series to market. A shock of poorly designed badges, promises that aren't kept, old execs out, new execs in, accountants in charge
Nothing happens and the 7 gradually fades away.Bert
rubystone said:
That is exactly how I see it and others far more in the know than me see it the same way. There is one hope...and that is that cashflow ought to be eased and Caterham Cars, as a small part of Fernandes' empire, might flourish 'under the radar' as it were...
Let's hope so. I think it's really unlikely and I suspect the 7 will need to escape the TF empire to have any hope at all. They put the FD in charge, what hope is there?Bert
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