Results

Author
Discussion

VolvoT5

4,155 posts

176 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Sounds like Newcastle are 50.07% remain only.

vonuber

17,868 posts

167 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Myc said:
They've created an algorithm based on number of Senior Citizens, Graduates, Students, UKIP Voters and a few other factors to determine the % vote for Exit/Leave and apparently this puts Newcastle at 60% Remain.

Had to laugh at him backtracking on the algorithm before Newcastle has even been announced.
Under the new rules of registration won't a lot of uni students be registered back home?

TheInternet

4,750 posts

165 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
VolvoT5 said:
I'm interested to see what happens in Newcastle.. pollsters are expecting a clear remain win so if it is a narrow win it could indicate this is going to be really close.
Quite close, game on.

Esseesse

8,969 posts

210 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
VolvoT5 said:
Esseesse said:
FPTP is a great system with it's inherently adversarial nature, I think we're very fortunate compared to other countries with their endless coalitions. Our problem is dying political parties that stand for little except obtaining office.
The argument for FPTP is that it gives 'strong government', but what is wrong with coalitions? 'strong government' is often a euphemism for the government doing whatever the hell it wants for 4.5 years and being able to ram through any changes it fancies because of the party whip system.

Our political parties are dying because the FPTP system forces a 2 party system - people are forced to join together in parties where they have very little in common with each other because they have no chance of obtaining any power unless they do so. How can it be right that UKIP and Greens only have 2 MPs despite 5.5 million? votes.
As your post suggest, FPTP effectively forces coalitions before the vote. At least the voter can pick their preferred coalition.

I'm not sure I'm a fan of whipping, it hasn't been around forever.

Importantly FPTP means that an unpopular government can be kicked out, removal vans at no. 10 the following day. This is a great thing that doesn't happen if you have ongoing coalition talks where you may end up with the same leader of a previously unpopular government.

dandarez

13,327 posts

285 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Newcastle result...

in

close a fk! Remain ...only just!

sanf

673 posts

174 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
eek bloody hell....Newcastle, ouch!!

Experts looking confused now.

VolvoT5

4,155 posts

176 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
So is Newcastle a blip in the polling companies models.... or if Newcastle an indicator that we may actually vote leave?

Reports of lowish turnout in Scotland too....... leave turn out (OAPS) potentially higher than remain youngsters.

Bullett

10,895 posts

186 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
That's tight.

TLandCruiser

2,791 posts

200 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
sanf said:
eek bloody hell....Newcastle, ouch!!

Experts looking confused now.
What did the experts predict?

Eric Mc

122,288 posts

267 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Hmmm - eggheads wearing some egg already.

TVR1

5,464 posts

227 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Username888 said:
All a bit strange really. The pound has risen sharply... - why? Because of an exit poll which has stated that the result is going to be very close!?? It it's so close, where's the confidence coming from?

How on earth can this poll be so accurate at this stage?
Confidence.

Like it or not, we, in this little Sceptered Island, with our little old pound, do have influence.

By chance, I have to make a purchase in Australia next week. The money needed to be there on Tuesday but I forgot to do it yesterday. Just done it now. There is quite a difference when you are buying dollars at 2.18 to the pound as opposed to 1.78. On a transfer of jquite a bit into 6 figures Stirling.

towser44

3,512 posts

117 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
TLandCruiser said:
sanf said:
eek bloody hell....Newcastle, ouch!!

Experts looking confused now.
What did the experts predict?
I am sure they were expecting at least 60/40

WCZ

10,573 posts

196 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
When you mention fptp, I thought it doesn't apply to this...
Isn't it just 'the most votes wins'?

ruggedscotty

5,656 posts

211 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
Its going to be close - very close.... It may well be an exit vote indeed...

Myc

306 posts

163 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
vonuber said:
Myc said:
They've created an algorithm based on number of Senior Citizens, Graduates, Students, UKIP Voters and a few other factors to determine the % vote for Exit/Leave and apparently this puts Newcastle at 60% Remain.

Had to laugh at him backtracking on the algorithm before Newcastle has even been announced.
Under the new rules of registration won't a lot of uni students be registered back home?
Good point, and that might scupper their algorithm.

Apparently the Exit regions are reporting higher % turnouts than the Remain regions. We've been discussed that today as the bad weather in the South was expected to put off a lot of the Remain voters

whoami

13,151 posts

242 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
WCZ said:
When you mention fptp, I thought it doesn't apply to this...
Isn't it just 'the most votes wins'?
Yes.

VolvoT5

4,155 posts

176 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
TLandCruiser said:
What did the experts predict?
60/40 for remain I think was the prediction wasn't it. A lot closer than expected anyway.

B'stard Child

28,534 posts

248 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
towser44 said:
TLandCruiser said:
sanf said:
eek bloody hell....Newcastle, ouch!!

Experts looking confused now.
What did the experts predict?
I am sure they were expecting at least 60/40
That's just put the cat on the pidgeons

Esseesse

8,969 posts

210 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
towser44 said:
TLandCruiser said:
sanf said:
eek bloody hell....Newcastle, ouch!!

Experts looking confused now.
What did the experts predict?
I am sure they were expecting at least 60/40
They should publish expectations for a 50/50 result by constituency so we can better interpret the significance of a result.

anonymous-user

56 months

Friday 24th June 2016
quotequote all
WCZ said:
When you mention fptp, I thought it doesn't apply to this...
Isn't it just 'the most votes wins'?
Yes, all that matters is the total numbers.