American Presidential candidates GoP/Dems
Discussion
968 said:
Maybe they will not like being characterised as rapists and criminals?
Trump said:
“When Mexico sends its people, they're not sending the best,” he said during the announcement. “They're not sending you, they're sending people that have lots of problems and they're bringing those problems. They're bringing drugs, they're bringing crime. They're rapists and some, I assume, are good people, but I speak to border guards and they're telling us what we're getting."
Depends how much they self identify with those currently crossing the border I guess. The Latino community in America is highly diverse both by race and by history. In terms of history you have descendants of settlers of Texas and California before its annexation to America, through to middle class refugees from Cuba in the 1950s, to someone who just swam the Rio Grande yesterday.What some in the UK need to remember, before blindly condemning Trump's comments, is that many of the central American countries, from which these migrants come, are some of the most violent on earth. There may be many Latinos who agree with him that they need to keep those gangs out of their communities in the US. Time will tell, but a large share of the Latino primary vote would seem to indicate that not all Latinos favour immigration without controls from that area.
Bascially odds are partly a function of probability (the liklihood of something happening) and the risk (the potential payout).
The more money that moves to Rubio - the more exposed bookmakers are to significant payouts, and so they shorten the odds to a). limit their payout and b). encourage people merely going for a long odd shot into putting their money else where.
The more money that moves to Rubio - the more exposed bookmakers are to significant payouts, and so they shorten the odds to a). limit their payout and b). encourage people merely going for a long odd shot into putting their money else where.
People doing betting for a living think that Trump has ~45% to win the nomination while Rubio is at ~33% Cruz at ~12% etc. at that moment.
Currently the odds are 1.43 for Trump which means he has something like 70% to win, Rubio is at 25% while other have almost no chances at all.
Rubio is not catching to Trump, odds on him are falling because Cruz is getting from bad to worse with his chances.
It's interesting that after all the euphoria hillary is still big favorite for the president at 60% while they give only about 25% to Trump, wonder what they know...
Currently the odds are 1.43 for Trump which means he has something like 70% to win, Rubio is at 25% while other have almost no chances at all.
Rubio is not catching to Trump, odds on him are falling because Cruz is getting from bad to worse with his chances.
It's interesting that after all the euphoria hillary is still big favorite for the president at 60% while they give only about 25% to Trump, wonder what they know...
Countdown said:
There's "voting republican" and there's "voting Trump" - I doubt all (or even many) GOP Latinos would vote Trump after the way he's referred to them. FWIW less than 30% of TX Latinos voted for Romney.
I thought his comments were referring to illegals. Surely all of those 'latinos' voting will be legally American?AreOut said:
People doing betting for a living think that Trump has ~45% to win the nomination while Rubio is at ~33% Cruz at ~12% etc. at that moment.
Currently the odds are 1.43 for Trump which means he has something like 70% to win, Rubio is at 25% while other have almost no chances at all.
Rubio is not catching to Trump, odds on him are falling because Cruz is getting from bad to worse with his chances.
It's interesting that after all the euphoria hillary is still big favorite for the president at 60% while they give only about 25% to Trump, wonder what they know...
If that's Betfair's picture, then it includes the professionals, yes, but also an awful lot of mug punters.Currently the odds are 1.43 for Trump which means he has something like 70% to win, Rubio is at 25% while other have almost no chances at all.
Rubio is not catching to Trump, odds on him are falling because Cruz is getting from bad to worse with his chances.
It's interesting that after all the euphoria hillary is still big favorite for the president at 60% while they give only about 25% to Trump, wonder what they know...
It's a reflection of opinion more than it's a reflection of 'science' or 'insight'.
Good piece by Taibbi discussing Trump and why he's winning. Not recommended for those taking our sham election process seriously.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-amer...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-amer...
JagLover said:
Depends how much they self identify with those currently crossing the border I guess. The Latino community in America is highly diverse both by race and by history. In terms of history you have descendants of settlers of Texas and California before its annexation to America, through to middle class refugees from Cuba in the 1950s, to someone who just swam the Rio Grande yesterday.
What some in the UK need to remember, before blindly condemning Trump's comments, is that many of the central American countries, from which these migrants come, are some of the most violent on earth. There may be many Latinos who agree with him that they need to keep those gangs out of their communities in the US. Time will tell, but a large share of the Latino primary vote would seem to indicate that not all Latinos favour immigration without controls from that area.
I'm not blindly condemning him, he's a vulgar cretin and your quote of his is utter populist bWhat some in the UK need to remember, before blindly condemning Trump's comments, is that many of the central American countries, from which these migrants come, are some of the most violent on earth. There may be many Latinos who agree with him that they need to keep those gangs out of their communities in the US. Time will tell, but a large share of the Latino primary vote would seem to indicate that not all Latinos favour immigration without controls from that area.
ks. But that's how he's getting votes, talking bks appeals to the masses. scherzkeks said:
Good piece by Taibbi discussing Trump and why he's winning. Not recommended for those taking our sham election process seriously.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-amer...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-amer...
That is a brilliant article, biased as hell of course, but brilliant.
It doesn't pull many punches
RS said:
The press went gaga for Rubio after Iowa because – why? Because he's an unthreatening, blow-dried, cliché-spouting, dial-surveying phony of the type campaign journalists always approve of.
RS said:
Trump, though, she likes. And so do a lot of people. No one should be surprised that he's tearing through the Republican primaries, because everything he's saying about his GOP opponents is true. They really are all stooges on the take, unable to stand up to Trump because they're not even people, but are, like Jeb and Rubio, just robo-babbling representatives of unseen donors..
RS said:
Psychology Today even ran an article by a neurology professor named Dr. Richard Cytowic about the peculiarly off-putting qualities of Cruz's face.
He used a German term, backpfeifengesicht, literally "a face in need of a good punch," to describe Cruz. This may be overstating things a little. Cruz certainly has an odd face – it looks like someone sewed pieces of a waterlogged Reagan mask together at gunpoint
Apparently Trump is even planning to call his wall the Great Wall of TrumpHe used a German term, backpfeifengesicht, literally "a face in need of a good punch," to describe Cruz. This may be overstating things a little. Cruz certainly has an odd face – it looks like someone sewed pieces of a waterlogged Reagan mask together at gunpoint
scherzkeks said:
Good piece by Taibbi discussing Trump and why he's winning. Not recommended for those taking our sham election process seriously.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-amer...
That's a brilliant piece.http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-amer...
RS said:
Trump is no intellectual. He's not bringing Middlemarch to the toilet. If he had to jail with Stephen Hawking for a year, he wouldn't learn a thing about physics. Hawking would come out on Day 365 talking about models and football.
Trump now with a large lead in Rubio's home state.
DM said:
He's crushing Rubio among demographics where his success would have been hard to imagine just a few months ago.
Florida Republican men back Trump over Rubio by a 49-25 margin. But women in the GOP also prefer Trump by a 39-31 edge.
More surprising, Trump's voter 'ceiling' there seems to have vanished.
Just 21 per cent of Republican voters told Quinnipiac's pollsters that they 'would definitely not support' Trump in the GOP nomination fight. That means he could potentially attract a nod from 79 per cent.
Another 26 per cent said they would never support Cruz, and 17 per cent said the same of Rubio.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3464217/No...Florida Republican men back Trump over Rubio by a 49-25 margin. But women in the GOP also prefer Trump by a 39-31 edge.
More surprising, Trump's voter 'ceiling' there seems to have vanished.
Just 21 per cent of Republican voters told Quinnipiac's pollsters that they 'would definitely not support' Trump in the GOP nomination fight. That means he could potentially attract a nod from 79 per cent.
Another 26 per cent said they would never support Cruz, and 17 per cent said the same of Rubio.
SpeckledJim said:
If that's Betfair's picture, then it includes the professionals, yes, but also an awful lot of mug punters.
It's a reflection of opinion more than it's a reflection of 'science' or 'insight'.
well there is a margin of error but on average they hit their percents quite good, if you take 11 betfair events with odds of 10/1 then on average it will be 10 misses 1 hit (talking long term)It's a reflection of opinion more than it's a reflection of 'science' or 'insight'.
Police State said:
It will be Trumpet vs Hillary.
The polls will say Trumpet all the way to the Whitehouse, The US will choose sanity over hilarity. Hillary will win by a decent margin. (+5%).
When you look at what has happened so far it's pretty obvious that the results have defied all expectations so why are you assuming that people will vote for Hillary Clinton? The polls will say Trumpet all the way to the Whitehouse, The US will choose sanity over hilarity. Hillary will win by a decent margin. (+5%).
There is a huge anti establishment movement in the U.S. and you don't get much more establishment than Hillary Clinton.
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