The economic consequences of Brexit (Vol 2)

[Jazzy Jag]

Meanwhile over in Guardian land..

"EU negotiator wants 'special' deal over access to City post-Brexit"

It seems reality is dawning.

[Pan Pan Pan]

Jazzy Jag said:

Meanwhile over in Guardian land..

"EU negotiator wants 'special' deal over access to City post-Brexit"

It seems reality is dawning.

Yup, and as we all know `special deals' if they are to happen at all must work in `both' directions.

[Mrr T]

davepoth said:

Mrr T said:

The problem with your idea is the passporting regulations are implemented by directive not regulation. So even if the EU agreed the relevant changes would need to be enacted into law in all 27 countries.

MIFID 2 offers a better option but that will never be ready by 2019.

MIFID 2 is entirely within the EU's gift - our regulatory regime is fine the day before Brexit, so unless we change something on the day it would be fine the day after - perfect equivalence. If we don't have it on the day we leave it's entirely due to EU spite.

Explain that to me.

MIFID 2 will not be implemented until Jan 2018. The regime for agreeing passporting for non EU countries will be determined by ESMA.

It's now 2 years since AIFMD granted some limited passporting and ESMA have still not decided how it will work.

So no it will not be ready for 2019 and it's not in the control of the council or commission to change this.

Edited by Mrr T on Saturday 14th January 11:44

[Mrr T]

don4l said:

FiF said:

don4l said:

Mrr T said:

Digga said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

FiF said:

A timely blog from Pete North

That can't be right.

Don4l made it all seem so simple ....

Sorry, but it's just a blog and, plainly, a fairly biased, left wing one at that, so I read the comment, but do not take too much of the opinion to heart.

To describe Peter North as left wing is a bit like describing Corbyn as Thatcher’s re-embodiment in politics.

He is both right of centre and a committed brexiter.

Peter North strikes me as a bit odd. Christopher Booker seems to be in the same camp. Both of them have been campaigning for us to leave the EU for years. Now that we have actually voted to Leave, they both seem to be in a blind panic.

Rubbish, sorry but rubbish. What's needed is an orderly exit with initially as little disturbance as possible. For example the Redwood suggestion of repeal the European Communities Act, flick the V's and walk away will give nothing like an orderly exit for anyone, and is frankly an idea supported only by goons.

We will have to agree to disagree on this.

I don't know where the phrase "orderly exit" comes from. It is language designed to imply that our exit could be "disorderly".

There would be nothing "disorderly" about trading with France under the same terms as we trade with the USA.

The North article worries that lorries could get diverted to Brest. I'd like to know what the hell he is smoking to come up with that idea.

Le Havre, I could understand, but Brest is plain stupid.

Are there ferries between Brest and the UK? I've done a quick Google and I cannot find anything.

I am an occasional reader of Peter Norths blog and did like the phase he used a few days ago "bonehead Brexit".

Don4l is PH very own leading boneheaded brexiter.

For those who might question Richard Norths knowledge from don4l post let me explain.

The comment only related to food exports and a WTO brexit.

I like many others had no idea until Richard North blog, that food products entering the EU from outside the EU can only enter via specific ports.

Calais, Dunkirk, etc etc are not ports able to accept food imports. So if the UK leaves the EU with no agreement then the nearest port open to UK food exporters is Brest.

Another reason an orderly exit is essential.

Let me give you another reason why we need as orderly exit, the S1 system.

[kurt535]

Pan Pan Pan said:

powerstroke said:

b2hbm said:

well, it seems that not only the Remain voters on here are concerned about a lack of Brexit plan, the Germans are as well. Or rather the Germans are concerned at the EU not having a brexit plan.....

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-german...

article said:

As Britain is a huge net contributor to EU finances, Brexit could have a major impact on funding of the EU's farming support scheme, called the common agricultural policy (CAP), Joachim Rukwied, the president of the German farming association DBV, said.

"The discussion about the implications of Brexit on the CAP has not yet taken place," Rukwied told Reuters.

Farmers should not face cuts to their EU support payments because of Brexit, he said

perhaps rather than complaining that TM isn't telling the EU what she wants, the EU ought to start telling it's members what they're going to do after we leave

Sound of 27 agricultural gravy trains hitting the buffers , but they won't do anything they are in denial not fit for purpose otherwise they would have rolled out the red carpet for CMD instead of treating us like something smelly stuck to their shoe ...
GOOD riddance to them they need us more than we need them ... Brexit rocks

Once the UK leaves the EU, I cannot see Germanys taxpayer wanting to make up the shortfall in funding needed to keep the EU in its current form alive.
The UK pays more into the EU`s coffers than 26 other member states combined.
All those 26 countries which suddenly find they will be required to pay money into the EU`s coffers, instead of getting money out of those coffers every year, are more likely to quit the EU as fast as they can, when they realize it is going to start costing them more than they receive. With any luck the EU wont even be in existence in a few years time.

Um, carving up the city of london financial spoils between various european financial centres could make up a lot of money and then some.....price of property in frankfurt has stormed up in value in anticipation of relocations lined up.

[Jockman]

kurt535 said:

.....price of property in frankfurt has stormed up in value in anticipation of relocations lined up.

Nothing to do with "strong economic growth, 1.1 million refugees, high work-related immigration, weak construction supply and low interest rates"?

[FiF]

Mrr T said:

don4l said:

FiF said:

don4l said:

Mrr T said:

Digga said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

FiF said:

A timely blog from Pete North

That can't be right.

Don4l made it all seem so simple ....

Sorry, but it's just a blog and, plainly, a fairly biased, left wing one at that, so I read the comment, but do not take too much of the opinion to heart.

To describe Peter North as left wing is a bit like describing Corbyn as Thatcher’s re-embodiment in politics.

He is both right of centre and a committed brexiter.

Peter North strikes me as a bit odd. Christopher Booker seems to be in the same camp. Both of them have been campaigning for us to leave the EU for years. Now that we have actually voted to Leave, they both seem to be in a blind panic.

Rubbish, sorry but rubbish. What's needed is an orderly exit with initially as little disturbance as possible. For example the Redwood suggestion of repeal the European Communities Act, flick the V's and walk away will give nothing like an orderly exit for anyone, and is frankly an idea supported only by goons.

We will have to agree to disagree on this.

I don't know where the phrase "orderly exit" comes from. It is language designed to imply that our exit could be "disorderly".

There would be nothing "disorderly" about trading with France under the same terms as we trade with the USA.

The North article worries that lorries could get diverted to Brest. I'd like to know what the hell he is smoking to come up with that idea.

Le Havre, I could understand, but Brest is plain stupid.

Are there ferries between Brest and the UK? I've done a quick Google and I cannot find anything.

I am an occasional reader of Peter Norths blog and did like the phase he used a few days ago "bonehead Brexit".

Don4l is PH very own leading boneheaded brexiter.

For those who might question Richard Norths knowledge from don4l post let me explain.

The comment only related to food exports and a WTO brexit.

I like many others had no idea until Richard North blog, that food products entering the EU from outside the EU can only enter via specific ports.

Calais, Dunkirk, etc etc are not ports able to accept food imports. So if the UK leaves the EU with no agreement then the nearest port open to UK food exporters is Brest.

Another reason an orderly exit is essential.

Let me give you another reason why we need as orderly exit, the S1 system.

Richard North raises another one today, completely relevant to PH. Mutual recognition of driving licences, and the need to have some sort of agreement, otherwise it's International Driving Permits, renewable every year. Plus of course agreement on recognition of extra training for HGV and PCV drivers, currently embodied in the CPC. Not to mention the insurance issue, and vehicle roadworthiness , operator's licences.

No doubt there will be accusation of an alternative version of Project Fear, far from it, but people need to be aware of the fallacy behind the siren call of "oh it will be all so easy, we just walk away", as there are a lot of specifics to be discussed, really a lot of specifics.

more here, for those interested

[Jockman]

FiF said:

Richard North raises another one today, completely relevant to PH. Mutual recognition of driving licences, and the need to have some sort of agreement, otherwise it's International Driving Permits, renewable every year. Plus of course agreement on recognition of extra training for HGV and PCV drivers, currently embodied in the CPC. Not to mention the insurance issue, and vehicle roadworthiness , operator's licences.

No doubt there will be accusation of an alternative version of Project Fear, far from it, but people need to be aware of the fallacy behind the siren call of "oh it will be all so easy, we just walk away", as there are a lot of specifics to be discussed, really a lot of specifics.

more here, for those interested

Don't forget what is also going on above your head

http://www.eurocontrol.int/dossiers/single-europea...

[Mrr T]

Not forgetting our land border with the rEU.

[///ajd]

Murph7355 said:

///ajd said:

This looks encouraging.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/e...

Who nicked your forum password ajd?

Hey its not all bad news.

But I still fear the risks of an awkward and damaging divorce.

[don4l]

FiF said:

Richard North raises another one today, completely relevant to PH. Mutual recognition of driving licences, and the need to have some sort of agreement, otherwise it's International Driving Permits, renewable every year. Plus of course agreement on recognition of extra training for HGV and PCV drivers, currently embodied in the CPC. Not to mention the insurance issue, and vehicle roadworthiness , operator's licences.

No doubt there will be accusation of an alternative version of Project Fear, far from it, but people need to be aware of the fallacy behind the siren call of "oh it will be all so easy, we just walk away", as there are a lot of specifics to be discussed, really a lot of specifics.

more here, for those interested

I've hired cars in the USA, Malaysia, Spain (before and after she joined the EEC) without any issue at all. Why should there be a problem with the EU?

Mutual recognition of driving licences has got sod all to do with the EU. This is an imaginary problem.

[alfie2244]

EU - Will you allow EU approved vehicles / drivers to use UK roads / cars etc? UK - Yes

UK - Will you allow UK approved................................................EU - Yes

simples - Next

[Mrr T]

don4l said:

FiF said:

Richard North raises another one today, completely relevant to PH. Mutual recognition of driving licences, and the need to have some sort of agreement, otherwise it's International Driving Permits, renewable every year. Plus of course agreement on recognition of extra training for HGV and PCV drivers, currently embodied in the CPC. Not to mention the insurance issue, and vehicle roadworthiness , operator's licences.

No doubt there will be accusation of an alternative version of Project Fear, far from it, but people need to be aware of the fallacy behind the siren call of "oh it will be all so easy, we just walk away", as there are a lot of specifics to be discussed, really a lot of specifics.

more here, for those interested

I've hired cars in the USA, Malaysia, Spain (before and after she joined the EEC) without any issue at all. Why should there be a problem with the EU?

Mutual recognition of driving licences has got sod all to do with the EU. This is an imaginary problem.

Our boneheaded brexiter at his finest.

[Mrr T]

alfie2244 said:

EU - Will you allow EU approved vehicles / drivers to use UK roads / cars etc? UK - Yes

UK - Will you allow UK approved................................................EU - Yes

simples - Next

Help me who is this EU person who will make this agreement? I have never seen him/her on TV. Does he/she exist.

[FiF]

Mrr T said:

don4l said:

FiF said:

Richard North raises another one today, completely relevant to PH. Mutual recognition of driving licences, and the need to have some sort of agreement, otherwise it's International Driving Permits, renewable every year. Plus of course agreement on recognition of extra training for HGV and PCV drivers, currently embodied in the CPC. Not to mention the insurance issue, and vehicle roadworthiness , operator's licences.

No doubt there will be accusation of an alternative version of Project Fear, far from it, but people need to be aware of the fallacy behind the siren call of "oh it will be all so easy, we just walk away", as there are a lot of specifics to be discussed, really a lot of specifics.

more here, for those interested

I've hired cars in the USA, Malaysia, Spain (before and after she joined the EEC) without any issue at all. Why should there be a problem with the EU?

Mutual recognition of driving licences has got sod all to do with the EU. This is an imaginary problem.

Our boneheaded brexiter at his finest.

Quite, bluster and ignoring much of the details based on one minor part that's already been covered. As previously, some don't want to understand. Don't underestimate the destructive potential of those with not much clue.

[alfie2244]

Mrr T said:

alfie2244 said:

EU - Will you allow EU approved vehicles / drivers to use UK roads / cars etc? UK - Yes

UK - Will you allow UK approved................................................EU - Yes

simples - Next

Help me who is this EU person who will make this agreement? I have never seen him/her on TV. Does he/she exist.

The same one that wants a special deal with the City of London.....Michel Barnier IIRC.

[FiF]

Mrr T said:

alfie2244 said:

EU - Will you allow EU approved vehicles / drivers to use UK roads / cars etc? UK - Yes

UK - Will you allow UK approved................................................EU - Yes

simples - Next

Help me who is this EU person who will make this agreement? I have never seen him/her on TV. Does he/she exist.

No they don't, as explained some of these agreements have been transferred into national legislations piecemeal, and how it would affect UK drivers and vehicles once out of the EU would depend upon the particular wording within those countries' legislations. It may not be a problem if there is an agreement on mutual recognition. But walking away from the table without agreement might mean different things in different countries. For the private car driver it will probably be relatively easy to sort, but professional drivers and vehicles used for business different rules will apply.

Logically all this has to be sorted before we walk away, that's all.

[davepoth]

Mrr T said:

Explain that to me.

MIFID 2 will not be implemented until Jan 2018. The regime for agreeing passporting for non EU countries will be determined by ESMA.

It's now 2 years since AIFMD granted some limited passporting and ESMA have still not decided how it will work.

So no it will not be ready for 2019 and it's not in the control of the council or commission to change this.

The voting members of ESMA are the market regulators of EU member countries (the FCA for the UK and their equivalents in the rest of Europe. What do they all have in common? Their ultimate bosses are the members of the European Council, who are the people who will determine the Brexit settlement.

While the FCA (and I imagine a number of the other authorities are too) is independent, its strategic objectives are set by the government. If every government in the EU decided that allowing the UK to have MIFID II on day one after Brexit was a strategic objective then it would happen.

[anonymous-user]

Mrr T said:

alfie2244 said:

EU - Will you allow EU approved vehicles / drivers to use UK roads / cars etc? UK - Yes

UK - Will you allow UK approved................................................EU - Yes

simples - Next

Help me who is this EU person who will make this agreement? I have never seen him/her on TV. Does he/she exist.

Possibly not. The suggestion made above does require a sensible outlook from someone with reasonable intelligence. Not going to be easy to find in the EU negotiating team.

[don4l]

FiF said:

Mrr T said:

don4l said:

FiF said:

Richard North raises another one today, completely relevant to PH. Mutual recognition of driving licences, and the need to have some sort of agreement, otherwise it's International Driving Permits, renewable every year. Plus of course agreement on recognition of extra training for HGV and PCV drivers, currently embodied in the CPC. Not to mention the insurance issue, and vehicle roadworthiness , operator's licences.

No doubt there will be accusation of an alternative version of Project Fear, far from it, but people need to be aware of the fallacy behind the siren call of "oh it will be all so easy, we just walk away", as there are a lot of specifics to be discussed, really a lot of specifics.

more here, for those interested

I've hired cars in the USA, Malaysia, Spain (before and after she joined the EEC) without any issue at all. Why should there be a problem with the EU?

Mutual recognition of driving licences has got sod all to do with the EU. This is an imaginary problem.

Our boneheaded brexiter at his finest.

Quite, bluster and ignoring much of the details based on one minor part that's already been covered. As previously, some don't want to understand. Don't underestimate the destructive potential of those with not much clue.

It isn't bluster. It is simple fact.

I've driven in many countries around the world without any ptoblems. Why on Earth should there be a problem for us. Is there a problem for Turkish lorry drivers?

I've driven in France, Spain, Italy, Holland and Belgium before the EU existed. I was never even asked to produce a UK Licence.

I'm not the one being boneheaded here.

We had mutual recognition of licences before we joined the EEC/EU. Anybody who imagines that there will be a problem after we leave is fearmongering.

I know of a better word than "fearmongering". It begins with "B".