How far will house prices fall [volume 4]
Discussion
vit4 said:
Are people actually buying property at the prices that it is advertised for? That might seem like a silly question but to put a bit of perspective, I'm 21, earn a bit over the national average and am fortunate enough to have a reasonable deposit. I'd like to buy somewhere (renting with the gf at the moment in Havering) but just can't afford it. I would have hoped that I could afford somewhere vaguely habitable, and yet Warner flats in Walthamstow aren't far off of £300k. Ex-council houses in Dagenham have gone stupid and are now frequently up for well over £200k-220k. Who is buying these places at these prices? I can understand the foreign investment in central London, but surely people can't be paying this money for homes in places like these?
I'm becoming rather disillusioned with London, and I don't even have any intention of living anywhere remotely near the centre.
You need a richer family, that's what you need. Social mobility? People getting what they deserve? Forget it.I'm becoming rather disillusioned with London, and I don't even have any intention of living anywhere remotely near the centre.
Stamp duty...dont get me started on it. A disgraceful tax, and something which should not feature at all for the majority of house sales. They should certainly raise it significantly as these price rises have done nothing but put more money into the government pot. Living out in the provinces, I've not had to pay the ridiculous rates but shouldn't have to stump up thousands to the government just to move house to create a better life for my family
vit4 said:
Are people actually buying property at the prices that it is advertised for? That might seem like a silly question but to put a bit of perspective, I'm 21, earn a bit over the national average and am fortunate enough to have a reasonable deposit. I'd like to buy somewhere (renting with the gf at the moment in Havering) but just can't afford it. I would have hoped that I could afford somewhere vaguely habitable, and yet Warner flats in Walthamstow aren't far off of £300k. Ex-council houses in Dagenham have gone stupid and are now frequently up for well over £200k-220k. Who is buying these places at these prices? I can understand the foreign investment in central London, but surely people can't be paying this money for homes in places like these?
I'm becoming rather disillusioned with London, and I don't even have any intention of living anywhere remotely near the centre.
What's a reasonable deposit to you? £30k deposit and my OH and I purchased for £280k (£20k under asking) last year. Don't forget SD/furniture etc - the first couple of months we were using some bucket seats (had them years) as furniture. Earnings aren't much above national average. There's always going to be compromise - location/size/features/garden etc, you can still buy if you want but can't have it all. I'm becoming rather disillusioned with London, and I don't even have any intention of living anywhere remotely near the centre.
Randy Winkman said:
vit4 said:
Are people actually buying property at the prices that it is advertised for? That might seem like a silly question but to put a bit of perspective, I'm 21, earn a bit over the national average and am fortunate enough to have a reasonable deposit. I'd like to buy somewhere (renting with the gf at the moment in Havering) but just can't afford it. I would have hoped that I could afford somewhere vaguely habitable, and yet Warner flats in Walthamstow aren't far off of £300k. Ex-council houses in Dagenham have gone stupid and are now frequently up for well over £200k-220k. Who is buying these places at these prices? I can understand the foreign investment in central London, but surely people can't be paying this money for homes in places like these?
I'm becoming rather disillusioned with London, and I don't even have any intention of living anywhere remotely near the centre.
You need a richer family, that's what you need. Social mobility? People getting what they deserve? Forget it.I'm becoming rather disillusioned with London, and I don't even have any intention of living anywhere remotely near the centre.
The emotive angle is fine but in a market you have to pitch in for what you can afford, not what somebody else with a political axe to grind thinks you 'deserve'.
Best of luck vit4, nothing in the above is to do with your personal position.
vit4 said:
...I'm 21, earn a bit over the national average and am fortunate enough to have a reasonable deposit. I'd like to buy somewhere (renting with the gf at the moment in Havering) but just can't afford it.
I admire your ambitious to buy at a young age and with low earnings, you must have a chunky deposit. To be honest, if I were you I'd put serious effort into increasing your income (if you haven't already done so) before jumping into the cheapest place on offer. Obviously easier said than done but where there's a will there a way. 
Edited by MycroftWard on Friday 11th April 12:26
vit4 said:
Are people actually buying property at the prices that it is advertised for? That might seem like a silly question but to put a bit of perspective, I'm 21, earn a bit over the national average and am fortunate enough to have a reasonable deposit. I'd like to buy somewhere (renting with the gf at the moment in Havering) but just can't afford it. I would have hoped that I could afford somewhere vaguely habitable, and yet Warner flats in Walthamstow aren't far off of £300k. Ex-council houses in Dagenham have gone stupid and are now frequently up for well over £200k-220k. Who is buying these places at these prices? I can understand the foreign investment in central London, but surely people can't be paying this money for homes in places like these?
I'm becoming rather disillusioned with London, and I don't even have any intention of living anywhere remotely near the centre.
An article in the ES a few weeks ago stated that in London 96-98% of properties achieve asking price (this is the ES remember so pinches of salt firmly in hand). I'm becoming rather disillusioned with London, and I don't even have any intention of living anywhere remotely near the centre.
I live in Walthamstow and in the last year prices have gone completely mental in what was considered previously as an affordable borough for London. An open house on a pretty bog standard terrace house on my road attracted queues of people to view to the point that when the open hour had ended some had not been able to even get in to view and went away disappointed. The estate agent had received numerous offers and felt no need to extend and sure enough a sold sign was up the next day.
This is what you're up against. People are desperate to get on the ladder as they see prices endlessly rising, not helped by reports like the one released a few days ago stating that London prices are expected to rise by 9% PER YEAR for the next 5 years.
It's madness and sooner or later this house of cards will come tumbling down.
valiant said:
It's madness and sooner or later this house of cards will come tumbling down.
Your wrong I'm afraid, sorry. Just because folks on minimum wage can't afford to buy property doesn't mean that property is in some way fundamentally overpriced (or not). Many people out there can afford to either borrow the money or have the cash to buy property, fact. The money exists out there to support today's asset prices.House price can go up or indeed down as they did several years ago, but saying it's a house of cards is just wishful thinking.
MycroftWard said:
valiant said:
It's madness and sooner or later this house of cards will come tumbling down.
Your wrong I'm afraid, sorry. Just because folks on minimum wage can't afford to buy property doesn't mean that property is in some way fundamentally overpriced (or not). Many people out there can afford to either borrow the money or have the cash to buy property, fact. The money exists out there to support today's asset prices.House price can go up or indeed down as they did several years ago, but saying it's a house of cards is just wishful thinking.
NPI said:
MycroftWard said:
Your wrong I'm afraid, sorry.
It's possible, but the scary thing is that looks like it would take a global calamity of such a scale that the drop in London house prices would be the least of everyone's worries.Where do you invest your money if you want a 10% return...... London....
NPI said:
It's possible, but the scary thing is that looks like it would take a global calamity of such a scale that the drop in London house prices would be the least of everyone's worries.
Yeah, we've had the worst recession in most people living memory with a near collapse of the financial/banking system, house prices took a dip but are recovering well. As I see it the only events that would cause a collapse in house prices are another major financial crisis (unlikely to happen again so soon), a very sharp rise in interest rates (which won't happen IMO) or some sort of WW3/armageddon scenario (unlikely, but who knows?).Edited by MycroftWard on Friday 11th April 12:46
Justayellowbadge said:
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I think it's only London that has 'recovered' from the recession, in terms of house prices.
Although everywhere is seeing gains, I believe outside London most of the UK is still below 2007 peak values.
Not sure about that. MrsPork loves Kirsty and the last couple of thinks I've heard her say on her current drivvel is that Cheshire has gone up 20% in the past year and Leicestershire has gone up 11% in the past year.Although everywhere is seeing gains, I believe outside London most of the UK is still below 2007 peak values.
Not sure what the basis is for that but lets not let fact get in the way of, and I quote, 'great news'.
Justayellowbadge said:
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I think it's only London that has 'recovered' from the recession, in terms of house prices.
Although everywhere is seeing gains, I believe outside London most of the UK is still below 2007 peak values.
Sounds about right but unlike British Rail, house prices are getting there.Although everywhere is seeing gains, I believe outside London most of the UK is still below 2007 peak values.
This is from a couple of months back.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance...
Article said:
Nationwide today reported that the average UK house price has increased by 0.6pc in the last month to £177,846 – 9.4pc higher than in February 2013.
This is still around 3pc below the peak in 2007, but growth shows no signs of slowing.
The Land Registry also released figures today showing house prices rose 1pc in the month to January to £168,356, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 4.2pc.
House price indices vary significantly because some, such as Nationwide, seasonally adjust their figures and factor in location to create “representative” house prices. Earlier this month the Office for National Statistics said the average UK house price reached £250,000 in December.
Demand for properties is being driven by the record low interest rates, improved availability of mortgages and rising consumer confidence. The number of properties on the market remains limited, particularly in London and the South East, helping to push prices higher.
Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, said the number of new houses being built is still well below the pre-crisis level, which was already insufficient.
In England for example, around 109,500 new homes were built in 2013. This was 38pc below the level recorded in 2007 and around half the projected number of households that are expected to form annually in the coming years.
London was back over the 2007 peak a year ago.This is still around 3pc below the peak in 2007, but growth shows no signs of slowing.
The Land Registry also released figures today showing house prices rose 1pc in the month to January to £168,356, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 4.2pc.
House price indices vary significantly because some, such as Nationwide, seasonally adjust their figures and factor in location to create “representative” house prices. Earlier this month the Office for National Statistics said the average UK house price reached £250,000 in December.
Demand for properties is being driven by the record low interest rates, improved availability of mortgages and rising consumer confidence. The number of properties on the market remains limited, particularly in London and the South East, helping to push prices higher.
Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, said the number of new houses being built is still well below the pre-crisis level, which was already insufficient.
In England for example, around 109,500 new homes were built in 2013. This was 38pc below the level recorded in 2007 and around half the projected number of households that are expected to form annually in the coming years.
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/mar/28/londo...
Pork said:
Justayellowbadge said:
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but I think it's only London that has 'recovered' from the recession, in terms of house prices.
Although everywhere is seeing gains, I believe outside London most of the UK is still below 2007 peak values.
Not sure about that. MrsPork loves Kirsty and the last couple of thinks I've heard her say on her current drivvel is that Cheshire has gone up 20% in the past year and Leicestershire has gone up 11% in the past year.Although everywhere is seeing gains, I believe outside London most of the UK is still below 2007 peak values.
Not sure what the basis is for that but lets not let fact get in the way of, and I quote, 'great news'.
Pork said:
Not sure about that. MrsPork loves Kirsty and the last couple of thinks I've heard her say on her current drivvel is that Cheshire has gone up 20% in the past year...
Small parts of Cheshire are like London.In most of it, prices are still way off 2007 peaks (which, to be fair, did get ridiculous).
NPI said:
Pork said:
Not sure about that. MrsPork loves Kirsty and the last couple of thinks I've heard her say on her current drivvel is that Cheshire has gone up 20% in the past year...
Small parts of Cheshire are like London.In most of it, prices are still way off 2007 peaks (which, to be fair, did get ridiculous).
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