bloody weather!
Discussion
Another good one, you're on fire TB!kerplunk said:
turbobloke said:
So exactly as you thought Catweazle, it's not you lacking in understanding.
Also as it stands all those hottest/wettest statements are irrelevant, no matter what the timeascale, in terms of human activity as the origin since there is no established causality to anthropogenic carbon dioxide or anything else due to us nasty humans in any such observation. As you no doubt know.
Certain people forget about causality at convenient times, or drop the initial comment in (loaded, as it is) and then say they weren't claiming causality. Ho hum.
Just like when someone dies of lung cancer and they mention he/she was a heavy smoker. You can't prove individual cases.Also as it stands all those hottest/wettest statements are irrelevant, no matter what the timeascale, in terms of human activity as the origin since there is no established causality to anthropogenic carbon dioxide or anything else due to us nasty humans in any such observation. As you no doubt know.
Certain people forget about causality at convenient times, or drop the initial comment in (loaded, as it is) and then say they weren't claiming causality. Ho hum.
I'd say this falls into the category of 'are predictions based on theory coming true?'.
As for causality I would expect the cause for the prediction in this case is 'a warming world' - whatever the cause. Not that 'tax gas' is directly effecting the jet stream.
Some of the predictions from 10 or so years ago were that winters would become wetter, summers drier, there would be no more snow, temperature would rise so much that Oxfordshire would now be equivalent to Southern France, sea level would rise - I still chuckle at the image of the ridiculous BBC reporter standing on the sea wall several years ago with a 2 metre stick pointing out how high the sea level was going to be - idiot!
It's really hard for me to understand how you can say "I'd say this falls into the category of 'are predictions based on theory coming true'?" Is that what you really think? If so, and no offence, I would guess you have a very gullible personality and an inability to reason? Nothing that the weather has thrown at us so far this year hasn't happened before, you must agree there?
Even the local BBC news (Points West) had a 5 minute feature last night showing old footage of the west country storms and floods of 1968 which are still reported as the worst for 100 years. I was shocked to see that article on the prime time 6.30 news show.
croyde said:
I hate conspiracy theories and I am a firm believer in climate change, as in it's the climate and it changes, so there! but this ok-ish weather with brief spells of heavy, as in very heavy rain and or hail and then back to mild and dry is a bit weird.
I have been away for a week so has it been like this for more than the couple of days that I have been back?
Normally I would expect constant rain or drizzle but these constant flooding cloud bursts with no thunder and lightening is a bit strange.
It's not wierd though, it's just weather. I was having this discussion with a mate in the pub the other night, who insisted that summers used to be normal when he was young!I have been away for a week so has it been like this for more than the couple of days that I have been back?
Normally I would expect constant rain or drizzle but these constant flooding cloud bursts with no thunder and lightening is a bit strange.
What is normal lol? He just remembers how summers were during a tiny period in time that he happened to be growing up in, which by coincidence had sunny warm summers. So what? Logic is a rare quality these days I reckon.
croyde said:
I hate conspiracy theories and I am a firm believer in climate change, as in it's the climate and it changes, so there! but this ok-ish weather with brief spells of heavy, as in very heavy rain and or hail and then back to mild and dry is a bit weird.
I have been away for a week so has it been like this for more than the couple of days that I have been back?
Normally I would expect constant rain or drizzle but these constant flooding cloud bursts with no thunder and lightening is a bit strange.
It's not strange at all. This is caused by pretty much the same weather pattern as April Showers. There have been plenty of storms, there was one around the Southern M25, another along the M27 corridor and one around the M4 in Berkshire just yesterday. The reason we aren't seeing more storms is that there isn't enough heat.I have been away for a week so has it been like this for more than the couple of days that I have been back?
Normally I would expect constant rain or drizzle but these constant flooding cloud bursts with no thunder and lightening is a bit strange.
deeps said:
It's not wierd though, it's just weather. I was having this discussion with a mate in the pub the other night, who insisted that summers used to be normal when he was young!
What is normal lol? He just remembers how summers were during a tiny period in time that he happened to be growing up in, which by coincidence had sunny warm summers. So what? Logic is a rare quality these days I reckon.
I wouldn't even give his statement that much credence.What is normal lol? He just remembers how summers were during a tiny period in time that he happened to be growing up in, which by coincidence had sunny warm summers. So what? Logic is a rare quality these days I reckon.
The human mind filters things out of memory. SWMBO had a rather difficult first marriage, and she says she can''t even remember the date of her wedding anniversary. I am sure that you will agree (possibly from the bitter experience of forgetting one
) that such behaviour in a woman is unusual to say the least. But I digress.I remember going to the seaside when I was a kid when it was hot and sunny, and those memories seem to be in the majority. However, I do particularly well recall being carted off to Southsea with two of my cousins (I believe that was the only time the three of us went on an outing together, so perhaps that's why I remember it) with the three of us in plastic macs standing on the shore chucking pebbles into the sea when it was absolutely pissing down. That would probably have been 1959, 1960 or 1961.
All those other days that, by logical deduction, it must have pissed down when I went to the seaside as a kid, have been lost to me.
deeps said:
I'm trying to understand you Kerplunk, you sound like a decent sort of chap, but I really am struggling with your logic.
Some of the predictions from 10 or so years ago were that winters would become wetter, summers drier, there would be no more snow, temperature would rise so much that Oxfordshire would now be equivalent to Southern France, sea level would rise - I still chuckle at the image of the ridiculous BBC reporter standing on the sea wall several years ago with a 2 metre stick pointing out how high the sea level was going to be - idiot!
It's really hard for me to understand how you can say "I'd say this falls into the category of 'are predictions based on theory coming true'?" Is that what you really think? If so, and no offence, I would guess you have a very gullible personality and an inability to reason? Nothing that the weather has thrown at us so far this year hasn't happened before, you must agree there?
Even the local BBC news (Points West) had a 5 minute feature last night showing old footage of the west country storms and floods of 1968 which are still reported as the worst for 100 years. I was shocked to see that article on the prime time 6.30 news show.
You make it sound like I've made my mind up but all I've done is ask the question - I've an open mind on the subject. On the the other hand you appear to have made your mind up that it's situation normal.Some of the predictions from 10 or so years ago were that winters would become wetter, summers drier, there would be no more snow, temperature would rise so much that Oxfordshire would now be equivalent to Southern France, sea level would rise - I still chuckle at the image of the ridiculous BBC reporter standing on the sea wall several years ago with a 2 metre stick pointing out how high the sea level was going to be - idiot!
It's really hard for me to understand how you can say "I'd say this falls into the category of 'are predictions based on theory coming true'?" Is that what you really think? If so, and no offence, I would guess you have a very gullible personality and an inability to reason? Nothing that the weather has thrown at us so far this year hasn't happened before, you must agree there?
Even the local BBC news (Points West) had a 5 minute feature last night showing old footage of the west country storms and floods of 1968 which are still reported as the worst for 100 years. I was shocked to see that article on the prime time 6.30 news show.
I don't understand your logic much either. When new national records are being set how can you say it's nothing that hasn't happened before in recent history for example? Same question I posed to TB - what is it about new recorded highs that you don't understand? Records that were set only 5 years ago I might add.
I'm not expecting any answers to the question either way. I wouldn't be surprised if someone produces an analysis of the 2012 floods in due course but it'll be inconclusive in terms of root causes, trends, and global warming etc.
The predictions I've referred to are in regards to the speeding up of the hydrological cycle in a warming world due to increased evaporation/water vapour etc, but it also appears to me these rains are primarily about circulation patterns (ie the jet stream) which is a different kettle of fish - still possibly due to a warming world (eg due to so called 'polar amplification' reducing the temperature gradient between low and high latitudes) or maybe it's just random chaotic behaviour. I don't know.
kerplunk said:
I don't understand your logic much either. When new national records are being set how can you say it's nothing that hasn't happened before in recent history for example? Same question I posed to TB - what is it about new recorded highs that you don't understand? Records that were set only 5 years ago I might add.
I gather i am meant to go and live in a mud hunt and pray to the CO2 god due to records being broken that are only 5 years oldthinfourth2 said:
I gather i am meant to go and live in a mud hunt and pray to the CO2 god due to records being broken that are only 5 years old
You should have no problems finding mud at the moment but I bought a substantial amount of Lancashire home with me last week which you can have if you're struggling 
There was a chap from some University in the US being interviewed on CNN last night, he was saying that 'extreme weather' was down to a warming planet so I guess that's the expression a la mode.
I'm still puzzled about this though as none of the extremes of weather seem to be anything that han't occured in the distant past, as for the recent past, there's also the fact that the IPCC and Prof Jones concede......no statistically significant warming has been seen since 1995, so how can current 'extremes' of weather be blamed on a warming planet?
I'm still puzzled about this though as none of the extremes of weather seem to be anything that han't occured in the distant past, as for the recent past, there's also the fact that the IPCC and Prof Jones concede......no statistically significant warming has been seen since 1995, so how can current 'extremes' of weather be blamed on a warming planet?
thinfourth2 said:
kerplunk said:
I don't understand your logic much either. When new national records are being set how can you say it's nothing that hasn't happened before in recent history for example? Same question I posed to TB - what is it about new recorded highs that you don't understand? Records that were set only 5 years ago I might add.
I gather i am meant to go and live in a mud hunt and pray to the CO2 god due to records being broken that are only 5 years oldfido said:
On the subject of records, is this just a monthly record? I read somewhere that 1912 was one of the wettest summers (recorded) and we aren't anywhere near that yet. Can any historians shed light on this?
The reports I've read say this year April and June were record wettest, and the April/May/June period was also the wettest on record.In 2007 it was the wettest June (at the time) and the wettest May/June/July period.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting...
The 'record' they cite from is one that starts in 1914 but there's an interesting footnote on that page:
There is also an historic monthly rainfall series for England and Wales, from 1766, which is an homogenous series based on selected station data. In this series, the total for May-July 2007 was 415.1 mm exceeding the previous May-July record by over 60 mm. The previous record was 349.1 mm in May-July 1789.
The 'summer' record would be the JJA period.
kerplunk said:
The reports I've read say this year April and June were record wettest, and the April/May/June period was also the wettest on record.
In 2007 it was the wettest June (at the time) and the wettest May/June/July period.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting...
The 'record' they cite from is one that starts in 1914 but there's an interesting footnote on that page:
There is also an historic monthly rainfall series for England and Wales, from 1766, which is an homogenous series based on selected station data. In this series, the total for May-July 2007 was 415.1 mm exceeding the previous May-July record by over 60 mm. The previous record was 349.1 mm in May-July 1789.
The 'summer' record would be the JJA period.
According to one of the other great relgions the earth is 6000 years oldIn 2007 it was the wettest June (at the time) and the wettest May/June/July period.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting...
The 'record' they cite from is one that starts in 1914 but there's an interesting footnote on that page:
There is also an historic monthly rainfall series for England and Wales, from 1766, which is an homogenous series based on selected station data. In this series, the total for May-July 2007 was 415.1 mm exceeding the previous May-July record by over 60 mm. The previous record was 349.1 mm in May-July 1789.
The 'summer' record would be the JJA period.
Do you think that records that cover 3.7% of the history of the earth are giving a very true picture of our weather
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