Climate Cat out of the Bag? Potentially dynamite revelations
Discussion
This quote from Hilary Benn caught my eye this morning:
Stolen from the Daily Wail:
"Mr Benn, who is in Cockermouth, said it may have 'the wettest day ever recorded' in the county.
He said that even defences built after the floods of 2005 to withstand a 'one-in-100-years flood' could not cope with the volume of water.
'What we dealt with last night was probably more like one-in-a-1,000, so even the very best defences, if you have such quantities of rain in such a short space of time, can be over-topped,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme."
So, no mention of Global Warming causing the floods then? That's a bit 'off-message' for a Government Minister isn't it?
mybrainhurts said:
PetrolTed said:
Tangent Police said:
Am I right in thinking this is going to be very difficult thing to hide?
Depends if any journos can be bothered to pick it up. It'll require a bit of work and it's Friday lunchtime...letters@dailymail.co.uk
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Edited by B Oeuf on Friday 20th November 12:52
PetrolTed said:
Tangent Police said:
Am I right in thinking this is going to be very difficult thing to hide?
Depends if any journos can be bothered to pick it up. It'll require a bit of work and it's Friday lunchtime...'If' this turns out to be true, Blair has a lot to answer for, as it was he who not only told us we need to go to war with Iraq because of overwhelming evidence of WMD, AND, with the same false solemn tone, told us that MMGW was/is the biggest threat to mankind facing us, and we must change our ways, again - based on overwhelming evidence!
Boy crying wolf too many times I think!
Boy crying wolf too many times I think!
The Excession said:
I know these are just soundbites from emails, but it gives some insight into what is going on:
Scientists exchanging opinons about the science - shocking stuff.allegedly 1255558867.txt said:
> On Oct 14, 2009, at 5:57 PM, Tom Wigley wrote:
> > Mike,
> >
> > The Figure you sent is very deceptive. As an example, historical
> > runs with PCM look as though they match observations -- but the
> > match is a fluke. PCM has no indirect aerosol forcing and a low
> > climate sensitivity -- compensating errors. In my (perhaps too
> > harsh)
> > view, [b]there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model
> > results by individual authors and by IPCC[/b]. This is why I still use
> > results from MAGICC to compare with observed temperatures. At least
> > here I can assess how sensitive matches are to sensitivity and
> > forcing assumptions/uncertainties.
> >
> > Tom.
> >
> > +++++++++++++++++++
> >
> > Michael Mann wrote:
> > > thanks Tom,
> > > I've taken the liberty of attaching a figure that Gavin put
> > > together the other day (its an update from a similar figure he
> > > prepared for an earlier RealClimate post. see:
> > > http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009... It is indeed worth a thousand words, and drives home Tom's point below. We're planning on doing a post on this shortly, but would be nice to see the Sep. HadCRU numbers first,
> > > mike
> > > On Oct 14, 2009, at 3:01 AM, Tom Wigley wrote:
> > > > Dear all,
> > > > At the risk of overload, [b]here are some notes of mine on the
> > > > recent
> > > > lack of warming.[/b] I look at this in two ways. The first is to
> > > > look at
> > > > the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic
> > > > trend relative to the pdf for unforced variability. The second
> > > > is to remove ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations from the
> > > > observed data.
> > > > Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The
> > > > second
> > > > method leaves a significant warming over the past decade.
> > > > These sums complement Kevin's energy work.
> > > > Kevin says ... "The fact is that we can't account for the lack
> > > > of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't". I
> > > > do not
> > > > agree with this.
> > > > Tom.
> > Mike,
> >
> > The Figure you sent is very deceptive. As an example, historical
> > runs with PCM look as though they match observations -- but the
> > match is a fluke. PCM has no indirect aerosol forcing and a low
> > climate sensitivity -- compensating errors. In my (perhaps too
> > harsh)
> > view, [b]there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model
> > results by individual authors and by IPCC[/b]. This is why I still use
> > results from MAGICC to compare with observed temperatures. At least
> > here I can assess how sensitive matches are to sensitivity and
> > forcing assumptions/uncertainties.
> >
> > Tom.
> >
> > +++++++++++++++++++
> >
> > Michael Mann wrote:
> > > thanks Tom,
> > > I've taken the liberty of attaching a figure that Gavin put
> > > together the other day (its an update from a similar figure he
> > > prepared for an earlier RealClimate post. see:
> > > http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009... It is indeed worth a thousand words, and drives home Tom's point below. We're planning on doing a post on this shortly, but would be nice to see the Sep. HadCRU numbers first,
> > > mike
> > > On Oct 14, 2009, at 3:01 AM, Tom Wigley wrote:
> > > > Dear all,
> > > > At the risk of overload, [b]here are some notes of mine on the
> > > > recent
> > > > lack of warming.[/b] I look at this in two ways. The first is to
> > > > look at
> > > > the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic
> > > > trend relative to the pdf for unforced variability. The second
> > > > is to remove ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations from the
> > > > observed data.
> > > > Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The
> > > > second
> > > > method leaves a significant warming over the past decade.
> > > > These sums complement Kevin's energy work.
> > > > Kevin says ... "The fact is that we can't account for the lack
> > > > of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't". I
> > > > do not
> > > > agree with this.
> > > > Tom.
I'm yet to see anything substantially indicative of some great conspiracy.
But there again you think the "Rules of the Game" pdf is scandalous in some way so your mileage may vary.
IL_JDM said:
Another Google news: http://www.examiner.com/x-25061-Climate-Change-Exa...
On a side note, if we keep saying CRU hacked, will we be no1 on google?
I think the CRU was hacked.
Better to go CRU Hacked and get real google love.On a side note, if we keep saying CRU hacked, will we be no1 on google?
I think the CRU was hacked.
Edited by IL_JDM on Friday 20th November 13:00
I expect this is true, after the way the government treated David Nut on canabis (with 2000 years of usage in written history and with every scientific study in 50 years showing it was the best choice medicine let alone drug) the government has its agendas and loyalties to large corporations.
With Davit Nut as an example, these scientists maybe wanted the information out without themselves losing jobs.
With Davit Nut as an example, these scientists maybe wanted the information out without themselves losing jobs.
The Excession said:
I know these are just soundbites from emails, but it gives some insight into what is going on:
there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC
&
here are some notes of mine on the recent lack of warming.
The second bit is discussing a the fact that the lack of current warming is due to ENSO and says nothing about the climate (see the realclimate page referenced which explains the bogus nature of Moncktons argument). The first part of the message seems a bit of a non-sequitur from the message to which it is replying. There is certainly nothing sinister whatsoever about the "note of mine on the recent lack of warming", just good science.allegedly 1255558867.txt said:
> On Oct 14, 2009, at 5:57 PM, Tom Wigley wrote:
> > Mike,
> >
> > The Figure you sent is very deceptive. As an example, historical
> > runs with PCM look as though they match observations -- but the
> > match is a fluke. PCM has no indirect aerosol forcing and a low
> > climate sensitivity -- compensating errors. In my (perhaps too
> > harsh)
> > view, [b]there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model
> > results by individual authors and by IPCC[/b]. This is why I still use
> > results from MAGICC to compare with observed temperatures. At least
> > here I can assess how sensitive matches are to sensitivity and
> > forcing assumptions/uncertainties.
> >
> > Tom.
> >
> > +++++++++++++++++++
> >
> > Michael Mann wrote:
> > > thanks Tom,
> > > I've taken the liberty of attaching a figure that Gavin put
> > > together the other day (its an update from a similar figure he
> > > prepared for an earlier RealClimate post. see:
> > > http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009... It is indeed worth a thousand words, and drives home Tom's point below. We're planning on doing a post on this shortly, but would be nice to see the Sep. HadCRU numbers first,
> > > mike
> > > On Oct 14, 2009, at 3:01 AM, Tom Wigley wrote:
> > > > Dear all,
> > > > At the risk of overload, [b]here are some notes of mine on the
> > > > recent
> > > > lack of warming.[/b] I look at this in two ways. The first is to
> > > > look at
> > > > the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic
> > > > trend relative to the pdf for unforced variability. The second
> > > > is to remove ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations from the
> > > > observed data.
> > > > Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The
> > > > second
> > > > method leaves a significant warming over the past decade.
> > > > These sums complement Kevin's energy work.
> > > > Kevin says ... "The fact is that we can't account for the lack
> > > > of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't". I
> > > > do not
> > > > agree with this.
> > > > Tom.
ETA Why aren't my bold tags working around> > Mike,
> >
> > The Figure you sent is very deceptive. As an example, historical
> > runs with PCM look as though they match observations -- but the
> > match is a fluke. PCM has no indirect aerosol forcing and a low
> > climate sensitivity -- compensating errors. In my (perhaps too
> > harsh)
> > view, [b]there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model
> > results by individual authors and by IPCC[/b]. This is why I still use
> > results from MAGICC to compare with observed temperatures. At least
> > here I can assess how sensitive matches are to sensitivity and
> > forcing assumptions/uncertainties.
> >
> > Tom.
> >
> > +++++++++++++++++++
> >
> > Michael Mann wrote:
> > > thanks Tom,
> > > I've taken the liberty of attaching a figure that Gavin put
> > > together the other day (its an update from a similar figure he
> > > prepared for an earlier RealClimate post. see:
> > > http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009... It is indeed worth a thousand words, and drives home Tom's point below. We're planning on doing a post on this shortly, but would be nice to see the Sep. HadCRU numbers first,
> > > mike
> > > On Oct 14, 2009, at 3:01 AM, Tom Wigley wrote:
> > > > Dear all,
> > > > At the risk of overload, [b]here are some notes of mine on the
> > > > recent
> > > > lack of warming.[/b] I look at this in two ways. The first is to
> > > > look at
> > > > the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic
> > > > trend relative to the pdf for unforced variability. The second
> > > > is to remove ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations from the
> > > > observed data.
> > > > Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The
> > > > second
> > > > method leaves a significant warming over the past decade.
> > > > These sums complement Kevin's energy work.
> > > > Kevin says ... "The fact is that we can't account for the lack
> > > > of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't". I
> > > > do not
> > > > agree with this.
> > > > Tom.
there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC
&
here are some notes of mine on the recent lack of warming.
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