Climate change - the POLITICAL debate. Vol 3

[turbobloke]

Ali G said:

As highlighted above - how does this provide any evidence which is more reliable than 'tree rings'?

And where did 'tree rings' lead to?

The FACT is...

Nobody has an accurate measure of past global temps.

The same may also be the case for current measures of global temps - I am certainly far from convinced!

Nobody was around with thermocouples dipping into the sea surface that's for sure, but to say isotope studies are on the same par as treemometers is pushing it! As you may know the oxygen-18 ratio for example is influenced by physical processes linked to temperature such as evaporation/condensation and freezing/melting/run-off (which can be replicated, alongside theoretical work) whereas treemometers are susceptible to a mix of physical and biological factors. There have been papers and articles linked on PH which describe how injury to a tree - and disease - are two factors that influence tree ring measurements but which cannot be isolated, quantified accurately and eliminated later on.

Clearly the modern 'mean global temperature' is an artificial construct and when produced using the poorly sampled and corrupted near-surface temperature database things only get worse, but the satellite record is available since 1979 and gives a much better starting point. Further back in time it's possible to calibrate other techniques through overlap in the same way that cosmological distances are worked through going from trig parallax to standard candles to red shift (as a brief summary).

It would be tempting to say that the China study fights fire (tree rings aka smoke rings) with fire, but it's more than that.

The methodology used by Yan H, Sun L, Shao D, Wang Y and Wei G (2014) will be relatively easy to critique and if there are any problems with the paper including error bars as well as actual values in the "high resolution" study, they will be brought to light. That's not to say that fakeclimate and other similar advocacy outfits won't get the hatchets out anyway, or that the BBC won't ignore it.

At least back then there were no V8s. Thank goodness we get to enjoy such plant food producers (for now).

[Ali G]

turbobloke said:

Clearly the modern 'mean global temperature' is an artificial construct and when produced using the poorly sampled and corrupted near-surface temperature database things only get worse, but the satellite record is available since 1979 and gives a much better starting point.

One could speculate that with increased use of satellite measurement techniques, there may be some form of a correlation with increasing periods of 'pause'.

Indeed, use of 'CryoSat' appears to be producing 'interesting' results.

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Ea...

article said:

The volume of ice measured this autumn is about 50% higher compared to last year.

One of the things we’d noticed in our data was that the volume of ice year-to-year was not varying anything like as much as the ice extent – at least in 2010, 2011 and 2012,” said Rachel Tilling from the UK’s Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, who led the study

[turbobloke]

Ali G said:

turbobloke said:

Clearly the modern 'mean global temperature' is an artificial construct and when produced using the poorly sampled and corrupted near-surface temperature database things only get worse, but the satellite record is available since 1979 and gives a much better starting point.

One could speculate that with increased use of satellite measurement techniques, there may be some form of a correlation with increasing periods of 'pause'.

Indeed, use of 'CryoSat' appears to be producing 'interesting' results.

http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Ea...

article said:

The volume of ice measured this autumn is about 50% higher compared to last year.

One of the things we’d noticed in our data was that the volume of ice year-to-year was not varying anything like as much as the ice extent – at least in 2010, 2011 and 2012,” said Rachel Tilling from the UK’s Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, who led the study

An intersting thought. That said, sea ice volume and area are susceptible to atmospheric circulation and oceanic circulation changes including at constant temperature (mgt, sst overall).

[AreOut]

dunno if it was already posted

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/pj-gladnick/2015/01/1...

[turbobloke]

AreOut said:

dunno if it was already posted

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/pj-gladnick/2015/01/1...

Can't remember seeing it, thanks for the link.

Using the satellite LTT temperature record, 2014 is barely in the top ten since 1979.

[Beati Dogu]

1,700 Private Jets are headed to Davos for the World Economic Forum.

Among the things up for discussion: global warming. Al Gore will be there of course.

http://www.newsweek.com/1700-private-jets-descend-...

[Mr GrimNasty]

So no surprise, the BBC (Met) is balancing our seasonally normal chill with 'Australia to exceed 50C' (it's not a record thankfully) blah blah nonsense.

Looking back at all the temperature records by continent, the latest was set 1977, earliest 1912 - how is that possible then, pre-global warming?

Australia has exceeded 50C before, far more times than officially recorded of course, especially in the sparsely occupied regions, the fact that there is better temperature instrumental coverage in the modern era does not mean that the temperatures are unusual, just that they are noted!

[steveatesh]

And on another not Conservative Home is reporting a rapid rise in Green Party membership, demonstrating how many many people have not got a clue what they are voting for. The rise of the hard left totalitarian party is a good exercise in marketing, wrapping up a turd in a lovely green wrapper.

This link was provided, I thought it apt:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7pJjykIAAARrQv.jpg

[turbobloke]

steveatesh said:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7pJjykIAAARrQv.jpg

Yet CMD seems to be cuddling up the the marxists.

[rovermorris999]

turbobloke said:

Yet CMD seems to be cuddling up the the marxists.

He's probably keen to see them do well. They'll take votes predominantly from Labour and the Libdems and yet are unlikely to do more than retain Brighton.

[turbobloke]

rovermorris999 said:

turbobloke said:

Yet CMD seems to be cuddling up the the marxists.

He's probably keen to see them do well. They'll take votes predominantly from Labour and the Libdems and yet are unlikely to do more than retain Brighton.

He'll need to shower more often in that case.

[Blib]

turbobloke said:

rovermorris999 said:

turbobloke said:

Yet CMD seems to be cuddling up the the marxists.

He's probably keen to see them do well. They'll take votes predominantly from Labour and the Libdems and yet are unlikely to do more than retain Brighton.

He'll need to shower more often in that case.

It's "Through the Looking Glass", stuff.

[AreOut]

Beati Dogu said:

1,700 Private Jets are headed to Davos for the World Economic Forum.

Among the things up for discussion: global warming. Al Gore will be there of course.

http://www.newsweek.com/1700-private-jets-descend-...

nice, 1700 jets burning kerosene will certainly help the cause, morons

[TKF]

Over 12,000 scientists contributed to the last IPCC report on climate change. This conspiracy goes deeper than we thought.

[steveT350C]

"Europe is launching a major diplomatic push for an ambitious deal on global warming, mobilising A-list celebrities and tens of thousands of diplomats to exert “maximum pressure” on key countries in international climate negotiations.

The EU plan, endorsed by ministers on Monday in Brussels, will see 90,000 diplomats in over 3,000 missions lobbying to win new pledges on carbon cuts from countries ahead of a crunch UN climate summit in Paris this December."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/20...

[turbobloke]

TKF said:

Over 12,000 scientists contributed to the last IPCC report on climate change. This conspiracy goes deeper than we thought.

What conspiracy? Have you found one we don't know about? Tell us more!

Meanwhile, writing about what matters is Prof Hulme and co-author Martin Mahony.

Prof Mike Hulme of UEA and Dr Martin Mahoney in a paper published in the journal Progress in Physical Geography said:

Claims such as "2,500 of the world’s leading scientists have reached a consensus that human activities are having a significant influence on the climate" are disingenuous. That particular consensus judgement, as are many others in the IPCC reports, is reached by only a few dozen experts in the specific field of detection and attribution studies; other IPCC authors are experts in other fields.

12,000 to 2,500 to a few dozen. Size matters

At the start of my work as a research scientist I "contributed" to a paper written by the group I had just joined. For the sake of not speaking the obvious, the nature of that contribution will remain a matter of conjecture for anyone with a warming imagination.

Meanwhile global climate data still shows no sign of a causal human signal and there's no causality established in any of the non-evidence such as ice, sea levels, wind and bears.

[turbobloke]

steveT350C said:

"Europe is launching a major diplomatic push for an ambitious deal on global warming, mobilising A-list celebrities and tens of thousands of diplomats to exert “maximum pressure” on key countries in international climate negotiations.

The EU plan, endorsed by ministers on Monday in Brussels, will see 90,000 diplomats in over 3,000 missions lobbying to win new pledges on carbon cuts from countries ahead of a crunch UN climate summit in Paris this December."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/20...

Desperation is setting in, as evidenced by the 2014 record bullshine.

We're still heading - based on data - into a period of climate cooling. Urgency has now reached a tipping point in this branch of political science.

[Scuffers]

windpower pulling it weight - NOT!

[TKF]

turbobloke said:

TKF said:

Over 12,000 scientists contributed to the last IPCC report on climate change. This conspiracy goes deeper than we thought.

What conspiracy?

The one where you and the other deniers have spent 3 volumes trying desperately to persuade anyone still listening that tens of thousands of scientists and governments are all in on "it" together and you've got all the secret real data behind the global conspiracy.

Thank goodness as the self-appointed expert you're here to open our eyes to it all.

[Blib]

TKF. why does nasa satellite data show that the planet hasn't warmed for over fifteen years? Despite rising CO2 levels. One measly link answering that simple question would suffice.

You've 12,000 scientists to choose from.