How far will house prices fall? [Volume 3]

How far will house prices fall? [Volume 3]

TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED
Author
Discussion

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

243 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/81027...


"Bank of England must use QE to buy 'bad mortgages', warns Fathom Consulting"



Digga

40,425 posts

284 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
anonymous said:
[redacted]
I wondered this too but a lack of homes is sited by some LEPs as a major factor holding back their regional economic development. Apparently.

Statistically, the supply chain - as I;ve already pointed out - has dropped off a cliff since 2007. This could be some very difficult issues - another bubble, intractible, immobile workforce etc. etc. - if left unaddressed.

Back to timber stuff, my mate (a true Petrolhead) just built himself a massive new place outside of Toronto, Cananda. It's only 3 beds - all are huge - but it has a 15 car garage (I st you not) to house his collection of 'vintage' motors; 70's Maseratis & Ferraris, TVRs, plus odd & sods. Anyway, this place, as you can imagine, get greater extremes of temperature than we see in the UK, but is so well insulated, it cost very little to heat. Noise insulation is similarly not a problem. It's timber.

briSk

14,291 posts

227 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
WhoseGeneration said:
loafer123 said:
The reason for problems with lending on timber framed construction was the rot issues with 1970s softwood timber framed houses.

In reality, there was nothing wrong with the theory, it was the implementation, but as a result of the issues then, alot of mortgage companies stopped lending on softwood framed houses.

Hardwood is alot easier, even now.
This, I'm old enough to remember the media articles and programmes exposing the problems when the major housebuilders attempted timberframe construction.
Basically down to poor site management and lack of workforce training.
However, there are still concerns about performance when fire occurs.
I do though think that, executed properly, using the correct designs and materials, timberframe has a lot to offer, especially if the UK wants to provide more housing in a short timescale.
no difference to now. we call them 'house builders' but their skill is as 'PlanningPermissionObtainers'. that's what they make their money from. they have no real 'skill' as builders.

on timberframe - scandanavia is the same.
build them properly and timber frame is a good idea. my 'house is fairly standard it's all masonary but they used glulam beams and just because they're (engineered) wood doesn't make them any worse than anything else...

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

243 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
Digga said:
another bubble,
Have a read of the article I posted - I think a zombie decade seems more likely

Digga

40,425 posts

284 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
NoelWatson said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/81027...


"Bank of England must use QE to buy 'bad mortgages', warns Fathom Consulting"
The Torygraph said:
, Fathom Consulting has urged the Treasury and the Bank of England to join forces and create a new "bad bank" to buy lenders' worst mortgages in a bid to "unblock" the credit supply.
Interesting and possibly sensible approach.

There is a log-jam developing in the property market.

I think prices need to shift downards and surely greater supply a.) of property (of the right sort) and b.) of mortgages will help this?

The danger is that, as a country, we become illiquid and immobile - stuck in worthless, unsaleable assets, unable to relocate - for any reason - and thereby reducing the volume of money in the domestic economy. As you say; zombies.

DonkeyApple

55,747 posts

170 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
NoelWatson said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/81027...


"Bank of England must use QE to buy 'bad mortgages', warns Fathom Consulting"
Why not let the bad mortgages default naturally and be removed from the market place?

Why must everyone in this country demand a hand out? We really have become a nation of weak, pathetic, scroungers.

Digga

40,425 posts

284 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
NoelWatson said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/81027...


"Bank of England must use QE to buy 'bad mortgages', warns Fathom Consulting"
Why not let the bad mortgages default naturally and be removed from the market place?

Why must everyone in this country demand a hand out? We really have become a nation of weak, pathetic, scroungers.
How about if the question is posed the oter way around.

Given the Bof E are Hell-bent on splurging some more QE into the economy, should they send it in the same direction as before (which had little effect on the economy), or should they do something different?

DonkeyApple

55,747 posts

170 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
NoelWatson said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/81027...


"Bank of England must use QE to buy 'bad mortgages', warns Fathom Consulting"
Why not let the bad mortgages default naturally and be removed from the market place?

Why must everyone in this country demand a hand out? We really have become a nation of weak, pathetic, scroungers.
How about if the question is posed the oter way around.

Given the Bof E are Hell-bent on splurging some more QE into the economy, should they send it in the same direction as before (which had little effect on the economy), or should they do something different?
This is the issue then. I don't believe they should do anything.

I'm a firm believer in letting fires burn naturally as it's going to happen whatever you do and the more you hold it back the bigger it is going to be.

I've not seen any evidence for further QE in the UK, other than as a tool to keep the pound weak and assist exports and deflate the debt pile.

Digga

40,425 posts

284 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
NoelWatson said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/81027...


"Bank of England must use QE to buy 'bad mortgages', warns Fathom Consulting"
Why not let the bad mortgages default naturally and be removed from the market place?

Why must everyone in this country demand a hand out? We really have become a nation of weak, pathetic, scroungers.
How about if the question is posed the oter way around.

Given the Bof E are Hell-bent on splurging some more QE into the economy, should they send it in the same direction as before (which had little effect on the economy), or should they do something different?
This is the issue then. I don't believe they should do anything.

I'm a firm believer in letting fires burn naturally as it's going to happen whatever you do and the more you hold it back the bigger it is going to be.

I've not seen any evidence for further QE in the UK, other than as a tool to keep the pound weak and assist exports and deflate the debt pile.
[paxman]Answer the question.[/paxman] biggrin

DonkeyApple

55,747 posts

170 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
DonkeyApple said:
NoelWatson said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/81027...


"Bank of England must use QE to buy 'bad mortgages', warns Fathom Consulting"
Why not let the bad mortgages default naturally and be removed from the market place?

Why must everyone in this country demand a hand out? We really have become a nation of weak, pathetic, scroungers.
How about if the question is posed the oter way around.

Given the Bof E are Hell-bent on splurging some more QE into the economy, should they send it in the same direction as before (which had little effect on the economy), or should they do something different?
This is the issue then. I don't believe they should do anything.

I'm a firm believer in letting fires burn naturally as it's going to happen whatever you do and the more you hold it back the bigger it is going to be.

I've not seen any evidence for further QE in the UK, other than as a tool to keep the pound weak and assist exports and deflate the debt pile.
[paxman]Answer the question.[/paxman] biggrin
biggrin

Well, you can't give it to the banks as it is unlikely to filter through as desired.

You can't give it to people who have fked up with their choice of property and it's funding deal.

If you were to use it to reduce income or corporation tax it just wouldn't go very far.

It is pointless and not needed. wink

Digga

40,425 posts

284 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
  1. Well, you can't give it to the banks as it is unlikely to filter through as desired. - Agreed
  1. You can't give it to people who have fked up with their choice of property and it's funding deal. - Agreed
  1. If you were to use it to reduce income or corporation tax it just wouldn't go very far. - Agreed
  1. It is pointless and not needed. - Agreed, but I fear it may happen.

DonkeyApple

55,747 posts

170 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
Digga said:
#Well, you can't give it to the banks as it is unlikely to filter through as desired. - Agreed

  1. You can't give it to people who have fked up with their choice of property and it's funding deal. - Agreed
  1. If you were to use it to reduce income or corporation tax it just wouldn't go very far. - Agreed
  1. It is pointless and not needed. - Agreed, but I fear it may happen.
Shall we just split it 50:50 then?

We could get Noel his Surrey mansion as a parting gift?

Digga

40,425 posts

284 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
Digga said:
#Well, you can't give it to the banks as it is unlikely to filter through as desired. - Agreed

  1. You can't give it to people who have fked up with their choice of property and it's funding deal. - Agreed
  1. If you were to use it to reduce income or corporation tax it just wouldn't go very far. - Agreed
  1. It is pointless and not needed. - Agreed, but I fear it may happen.
Shall we just split it 50:50 then?

We could get Noel his Surrey mansion as a parting gift?
rofl

I wasn't holding out for all that money; I'd have settled for a pimped Range Rover with 26" wheels.

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

243 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
NoelWatson said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/81027...


"Bank of England must use QE to buy 'bad mortgages', warns Fathom Consulting"
Why not let the bad mortgages default naturally and be removed from the market place?

Why must everyone in this country demand a hand out? We really have become a nation of weak, pathetic, scroungers.
Are you mad man? Since when did common sense come into this? Moral hazard is the way forward.

NoelWatson

11,710 posts

243 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
DonkeyApple said:
We could get Noel his Surrey mansion as a parting gift?
I'm emigrating when Labour get back in

ringram

14,700 posts

249 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
Im with Mr Donkey on this.
Moral Hazard has gone crazy, paying everyone to be retarded just begets more retardation.

If the BoE want to spend money, use it to buy govt debt to fund tax cuts! My 2p

Then the workers of the country can get a break rather than the lazy useless wks who jerk off all day.
They can pay down their delinquent morgages, credit cards, or if they have been sensible add to their pensions, or take a holiday or even buy a new car!

Sam_68

9,939 posts

246 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
briSk said:
They have no real 'skill' as builders...
If you'd care to forward me your address, I'll send round Our Nige (Site Manager; ex-army and famed thoughout our organisation for throwing the Queen's security ferrets off one of our sites when they were snooping around without permission prior to a royal visit: 'I don't care who you work for - you don't come on my ******* site without asking me first') to debate this point with you.

I suspect the explanations might involve imaginative uses for both bricks and 4"x2" timber. biggrin

Our Regional MD started his career as a joiner, as I recall.

Timber frame is more expensive than traditional; it's main advantage is speed of build. It's not speed of build that's causing the bottleneck with housing delivery, its the speed of the Planning system.

Digga

40,425 posts

284 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
Sam_68 said:
Timber frame is more expensive than traditional; it's main advantage is speed of build.
I'd always assumed the labour for laying bricks 'n' mortar to be higher.

I guess the other advantage with pre-fab/timber is that construction is less likely to be delayed by the weather?

briSk

14,291 posts

227 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
Sam_68 said:
briSk said:
They have no real 'skill' as builders...
If you'd care to forward me your address, I'll send round Our Nige (Site Manager; ex-army and famed thoughout our organisation for throwing the Queen's security ferrets off one of our sites when they were snooping around without permission prior to a royal visit: 'I don't care who you work for - you don't come on my ******* site without asking me first') to debate this point with you.

I suspect the explanations might involve imaginative uses for both bricks and 4"x2" timber. biggrin

Our Regional MD started his career as a joiner, as I recall.

Timber frame is more expensive than traditional; it's main advantage is speed of build. It's not speed of build that's causing the bottleneck with housing delivery, its the speed of the Planning system.
to be fair i was at least complimenting you! ;-)

DonkeyApple

55,747 posts

170 months

Tuesday 2nd November 2010
quotequote all
Sam_68 said:
briSk said:
They have no real 'skill' as builders...
If you'd care to forward me your address, I'll send round Our Nige (Site Manager; ex-army and famed thoughout our organisation for throwing the Queen's security ferrets off one of our sites when they were snooping around without permission prior to a royal visit: 'I don't care who you work for - you don't come on my ******* site without asking me first') to debate this point with you.
318 High St
Cowdenbeath KY4 9QJ


There you go. Let Nige do his worst. Don't forget to tell him that the man who answer's the door also bummed his dad. biggrin
TOPIC CLOSED
TOPIC CLOSED