Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[bmwmike]

J4CKO said:

Lots of dead Russians ?

Imagine going about your daily life and getting informed you are going to Ukraine, do not pass go, do not collect £200, just a rifle if you are lucky.

With Ukraine, there will be a grim realisation that you have to defend, where with Russia, they didnt have to do this and you are getting sent off to likely die or get maimed because of a mental pensioner. Seen videos of injured Russians finishing themselves off with a handgun, its so grim.

Its like Putin is just playing games, I dont think the world should be at the whim of an unstable, possibly ill pensioner, I do think he would quite happily escalate if he though all was lost, I have a feeling that the west is trying to manage the situation to avoid this and hoping he either expires naturally or gets offed.

I agree there is probably a lot going on behind the scenes and very much more than anyone on PH is likely to know about. The idea that the west are trying to run down the clock seems plausible, but given what we're actually seeing it seems very precarious.

[bloomen]

pinchmeimdreamin said:

This looks more like a light plane ( Cessna style ).

So that's 700 or so miles without triggering any curiosity or question marks, let alone air defence.

I know there'll be vast, and possibly total, gaps but you could send a fella along with something handheld along the route.

Wouldn't want to be a Russian light aircraft pilot flying around for fun after more of these.

[gotoPzero]

is-uk said:

Speculation that the new, long range drone used to hit the Shahed drone factory in Tatarstan, may be based on the Aeroprakt A-22, a Ukrainian built two-seat, high-wing, tricycle landing gear ultralight aircraft.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1775068...

Certainly looks like it. And with all the instruments removed etc its probably well within range of the A22.
I am sure they have some clever ways of finding the gaps too, plus I expect it can do 1200km (ish) overnight so in the darkness too.

[Spare tyre]

J4CKO said:

menguin said:

sisu said:

Russia have moved faster, they are mobilising 150,000 men every month and plan to use them to wear down Ukraine by sending in a meat wave and picking off the firing positions with more experienced troops, this is just a sad fact.

It's not a fact, it's a claim made by russians. One that is highly spurious considering what we actually see on the ground.

Lots of dead Russians ?

Imagine going about your daily life and getting informed you are going to Ukraine, do not pass go, do not collect £200, just a rifle if you are lucky.

With Ukraine, there will be a grim realisation that you have to defend, where with Russia, they didnt have to do this and you are getting sent off to likely die or get maimed because of a mental pensioner. Seen videos of injured Russians finishing themselves off with a handgun, its so grim.

Its like Putin is just playing games, I dont think the world should be at the whim of an unstable, possibly ill pensioner, I do think he would quite happily escalate if he though all was lost, I have a feeling that the west is trying to manage the situation to avoid this and hoping he either expires naturally or gets offed.

Sadly I’m not convinced these poor Russians fellas know much better than they are being told. They are being told they are defending themselves against the west / nato. Of course they are not, but it’s just all so sad for “normal” folk being dragged into it because of a loon

[Spare tyre]

bloomen said:

pinchmeimdreamin said:

This looks more like a light plane ( Cessna style ).

.

Wouldn't want to be a Russian light aircraft pilot flying around for fun after more of these.

Yup, I wouldn’t be flying my piper about anywhere near that place for a long time now.

Perhaps Ukraine need to to use a few private jets like an oligarch might use, would open their eyes a bit

[Oliver Hardy]

Spare tyre said:

J4CKO said:

menguin said:

sisu said:

Russia have moved faster, they are mobilising 150,000 men every month and plan to use them to wear down Ukraine by sending in a meat wave and picking off the firing positions with more experienced troops, this is just a sad fact.

It's not a fact, it's a claim made by russians. One that is highly spurious considering what we actually see on the ground.

Lots of dead Russians ?

Imagine going about your daily life and getting informed you are going to Ukraine, do not pass go, do not collect £200, just a rifle if you are lucky.

With Ukraine, there will be a grim realisation that you have to defend, where with Russia, they didnt have to do this and you are getting sent off to likely die or get maimed because of a mental pensioner. Seen videos of injured Russians finishing themselves off with a handgun, its so grim.

Its like Putin is just playing games, I dont think the world should be at the whim of an unstable, possibly ill pensioner, I do think he would quite happily escalate if he though all was lost, I have a feeling that the west is trying to manage the situation to avoid this and hoping he either expires naturally or gets offed.

Sadly I’m not convinced these poor Russians fellas know much better than they are being told. They are being told they are defending themselves against the west / nato. Of course they are not, but it’s just all so sad for “normal” folk being dragged into it because of a loon

Do you think? I would have thought this might be true at the start of the war but the amount of men who have come back dead, injured or not just come back you would have to be living in total isolation in Siberia not to realize what is going on?

[Hereward]

bloomen said:

So that's 700 or so miles without triggering any curiosity or question marks, let alone air defence...

With at least the final portion of the flight in broad daylight too.

[Oliver Hardy]

bloomen said:

pinchmeimdreamin said:

This looks more like a light plane ( Cessna style ).

I know there'll be vast, and possibly total, gaps but you could send a fella along with something handheld along the route.

I believe this happens too! I can't remember which drone they use but a small team goes into Russia on foot with the drone in pieces, get within range, assemble the drone and send it off.

[Digga]

Oliver Hardy said:

Spare tyre said:

J4CKO said:

menguin said:

sisu said:

Russia have moved faster, they are mobilising 150,000 men every month and plan to use them to wear down Ukraine by sending in a meat wave and picking off the firing positions with more experienced troops, this is just a sad fact.

It's not a fact, it's a claim made by russians. One that is highly spurious considering what we actually see on the ground.

Lots of dead Russians ?

Imagine going about your daily life and getting informed you are going to Ukraine, do not pass go, do not collect £200, just a rifle if you are lucky.

With Ukraine, there will be a grim realisation that you have to defend, where with Russia, they didnt have to do this and you are getting sent off to likely die or get maimed because of a mental pensioner. Seen videos of injured Russians finishing themselves off with a handgun, its so grim.

Its like Putin is just playing games, I dont think the world should be at the whim of an unstable, possibly ill pensioner, I do think he would quite happily escalate if he though all was lost, I have a feeling that the west is trying to manage the situation to avoid this and hoping he either expires naturally or gets offed.

Sadly I’m not convinced these poor Russians fellas know much better than they are being told. They are being told they are defending themselves against the west / nato. Of course they are not, but it’s just all so sad for “normal” folk being dragged into it because of a loon

Do you think? I would have thought this might be true at the start of the war but the amount of men who have come back dead, injured or not just come back you would have to be living in total isolation in Siberia not to realize what is going on?

I have seen videos made by Russian soldiers showing how their dead are littering the battlefield, left to rot. I think plenty in Russia do not know, but there are probably at least as many who refuse to acknowledge.

The nearest parallel we in the UK can draw to understand this utter juxtaposition of opinion is that of Brexit. Drawing from that and considering the abject lack of education and awareness of many Russians, it is easy to see how there's a vast number who will never believe Putin is in the wrong.

[durbster]

is-uk said:

Speculation that the new, long range drone used to hit the Shahed drone factory in Tatarstan, may be based on the Aeroprakt A-22, a Ukrainian built two-seat, high-wing, tricycle landing gear ultralight aircraft.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1775068...

Almost 1,200km from the Ukrainian border.

The Ukrainians are just full of surprises. If they have done this by modifying existing aircraft then presumably that opens up a whole new avenue for drones.

I guess there are planes that can technically fly but don't meet safety regulations out there. They'd be perfect for carrying a large payload over large distances, and probably a bit confusing for air defence too.

[J4CKO]

Digga said:

Oliver Hardy said:

Spare tyre said:

J4CKO said:

menguin said:

sisu said:

Russia have moved faster, they are mobilising 150,000 men every month and plan to use them to wear down Ukraine by sending in a meat wave and picking off the firing positions with more experienced troops, this is just a sad fact.

It's not a fact, it's a claim made by russians. One that is highly spurious considering what we actually see on the ground.

Lots of dead Russians ?

Imagine going about your daily life and getting informed you are going to Ukraine, do not pass go, do not collect £200, just a rifle if you are lucky.

With Ukraine, there will be a grim realisation that you have to defend, where with Russia, they didnt have to do this and you are getting sent off to likely die or get maimed because of a mental pensioner. Seen videos of injured Russians finishing themselves off with a handgun, its so grim.

Its like Putin is just playing games, I dont think the world should be at the whim of an unstable, possibly ill pensioner, I do think he would quite happily escalate if he though all was lost, I have a feeling that the west is trying to manage the situation to avoid this and hoping he either expires naturally or gets offed.

Sadly I’m not convinced these poor Russians fellas know much better than they are being told. They are being told they are defending themselves against the west / nato. Of course they are not, but it’s just all so sad for “normal” folk being dragged into it because of a loon

Do you think? I would have thought this might be true at the start of the war but the amount of men who have come back dead, injured or not just come back you would have to be living in total isolation in Siberia not to realize what is going on?

I have seen videos made by Russian soldiers showing how their dead are littering the battlefield, left to rot. I think plenty in Russia do not know, but there are probably at least as many who refuse to acknowledge.

The nearest parallel we in the UK can draw to understand this utter juxtaposition of opinion is that of Brexit. Drawing from that and considering the abject lack of education and awareness of many Russians, it is easy to see how there's a vast number who will never believe Putin is in the wrong.

Putin is like a national Josef Fritzl, maybe with a side of Stockholm syndrome, general apathy and rabid nationalism, a lot will know the score but you cant say it as you may as well take your chances and hope it comes to an end and you arent in prison or dead.

[Digga]

Interesting new narrative unfolding on X regarding the fact all US intelligence community members wounded in Havana Syndrome Attacks worked on issues focused on Russia. I wonder if this is new angle to pour cold water on the pro-Russian elements?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/177460845558...

[daveco]

Hereward said:

bloomen said:

So that's 700 or so miles without triggering any curiosity or question marks, let alone air defence...

With at least the final portion of the flight in broad daylight too.

Cruising speed of a cessna 170 is about 120mph, so I'd imagine a smaller plane would be roughly 100mph.

Russia's air defense systems cannot successfully target and destroy small, slow moving targets, and Ukrainian army are exploiting this.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/12...

[SlimJim16v]

is-uk said:

With regard to the sanctions, here is an interesting article by the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sanctions-a...

Thanks that's very interesting. It looks like the sanctions are having an increasingly greater effect than I thought.

[borcy]

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1775169...


Recovery of the ukr kamikaze drone

[jtremlett]

Oliver Hardy said:

Spare tyre said:

J4CKO said:

menguin said:

sisu said:

Russia have moved faster, they are mobilising 150,000 men every month and plan to use them to wear down Ukraine by sending in a meat wave and picking off the firing positions with more experienced troops, this is just a sad fact.

It's not a fact, it's a claim made by russians. One that is highly spurious considering what we actually see on the ground.

Lots of dead Russians ?

Imagine going about your daily life and getting informed you are going to Ukraine, do not pass go, do not collect £200, just a rifle if you are lucky.

With Ukraine, there will be a grim realisation that you have to defend, where with Russia, they didnt have to do this and you are getting sent off to likely die or get maimed because of a mental pensioner. Seen videos of injured Russians finishing themselves off with a handgun, its so grim.

Its like Putin is just playing games, I dont think the world should be at the whim of an unstable, possibly ill pensioner, I do think he would quite happily escalate if he though all was lost, I have a feeling that the west is trying to manage the situation to avoid this and hoping he either expires naturally or gets offed.

Sadly I’m not convinced these poor Russians fellas know much better than they are being told. They are being told they are defending themselves against the west / nato. Of course they are not, but it’s just all so sad for “normal” folk being dragged into it because of a loon

Do you think? I would have thought this might be true at the start of the war but the amount of men who have come back dead, injured or not just come back you would have to be living in total isolation in Siberia not to realize what is going on?

I read somewhere recently (can't recall where now) that the Russians aren't actually short of recruits because the money is good. If you live in some remote part of Russia earning a pittance then you probably hear very little about what is going on and when someone comes along and says if you sign up you'll get 4 or 5 times your current wage (or whatever it might be) then I can see why that might seem like an attractive option. Until you get there at least.

[isaldiri]

SlimJim16v said:

is-uk said:

With regard to the sanctions, here is an interesting article by the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sanctions-a...

Thanks that's very interesting. It looks like the sanctions are having an increasingly greater effect than I thought.

It's clearly having a sufficient impact that US politicians are concerned about the impact on them as well yes.......

[jtremlett]

is-uk said:

With regard to the sanctions, here is an interesting article by the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sanctions-a...

Periodically I read articles that say the sanctions are working and others that say they aren't. In truth, sanctions were never going to make a massive difference. Just look at the various countries that have been subject to sanctions in the past and I can't think of anywhere that has changed course as a result. They are an inconvenience and if Putin doesn't care how many of his troops get killed then he's hardly likely to be bothered if it is a bit harder and more expensive to buy a Rolls Royce in Moscow. There are always enough people prepared to break the sanctions if the price is right.

[Cheib]

SlimJim16v said:

is-uk said:

With regard to the sanctions, here is an interesting article by the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sanctions-a...

Thanks that's very interesting. It looks like the sanctions are having an increasingly greater effect than I thought.

IF they can stop the supply of key technology to Russia via friendly states it would potentially make a huge difference. Russian missiles that have been shot down have been examined and found to contain western components made after the sanctions came in to place…

[eldar]

jtremlett said:

read somewhere recently (can't recall where now) that the Russians aren't actually short of recruits because the money is good. If you live in some remote part of Russia earning a pittance then you probably hear very little about what is going on and when someone comes along and says if you sign up you'll get 4 or 5 times your current wage (or whatever it might be) then I can see why that might seem like an attractive option. Until you get there at least.

Read something similar recently. There is a reasonable supply of rural young men who see good money in exchange for glory and stardom. Any downside is concealed or flagged as US propaganda.
The supply is reducing though, as the previous intake doesn't come home in one piece and word quietly spreads.