Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[BikeBikeBIke]

jtremlett said:

read somewhere recently (can't recall where now) that the Russians aren't actually short of recruits because the money is good. If you live in some remote part of Russia earning a pittance then you probably hear very little about what is going on and when someone comes along and says if you sign up you'll get 4 or 5 times your current wage (or whatever it might be) then I can see why that might seem like an attractive option. Until you get there at least.

Yeah. I don't think anyone predicted that aspect of this. Quite seriously I think life in Russia is so bleak that there are tens of thousands of people willing to die or be maimed in exchange for cash for their families.

[RichFN2]

Russia won't be short of manpower for years to come thanks to the salary and recruitment process, plus the average Russian soldier is now fairly well equipped thanks to China (night vision is now quite common)

One of the few areas Russia does have a lack of resources/supply issues is probably it's biggest issue on the frontline. Armoured vehicles and tanks are being destroyed at a collosal rate, far quicker than they can produce new stock while they are busy raiding all their storage facilities.


From what I understand anything newer than the upgraded T72 is a struggle to produce in large numbers at the moment (within Russia)

[bloomen]

jtremlett said:

eriodically I read articles that say the sanctions are working and others that say they aren't. In truth, sanctions were never going to make a massive difference. Just look at the various countries that have been subject to sanctions in the past and I can't think of anywhere that has changed course as a result.

Can't think of anyone who's bowed to sanctions either, but you can slow and impede progress and also deny the ability to make money on major markets. If nothing else it's a rod up their arse that can never be ignored.

I expect if you devoted more effort to the initial design and targeting, followed them up and shut down the workarounds that pop up you could do far more damage than most do at the moment.

[borcy]

Just seen on sky, age for conscription is reduced in Ukraine from 27 to 25.

[hidetheelephants]

bloomen said:

pinchmeimdreamin said:

This looks more like a light plane ( Cessna style ).

So that's 700 or so miles without triggering any curiosity or question marks, let alone air defence.

I know there'll be vast, and possibly total, gaps but you could send a fella along with something handheld along the route.

Wouldn't want to be a Russian light aircraft pilot flying around for fun after more of these.

Private light aviation doesn't really exist in Russia. Maybe this is a consequence of all the Beriev A50s getting shot down by russian air defence or blown up on the ground by lax fire safety?

Digga said:

Interesting new narrative unfolding on X regarding the fact all US intelligence community members wounded in Havana Syndrome Attacks worked on issues focused on Russia. I wonder if this is new angle to pour cold water on the pro-Russian elements?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/177460845558...

The US has functioning experimental directed energy weapons, perhaps they're keeping silent on it for operational reasons; tough on the officers who have been injured by it though.

[spookly]

Cheib said:

SlimJim16v said:

is-uk said:

With regard to the sanctions, here is an interesting article by the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sanctions-a...

Thanks that's very interesting. It looks like the sanctions are having an increasingly greater effect than I thought.

IF they can stop the supply of key technology to Russia via friendly states it would potentially make a huge difference. Russian missiles that have been shot down have been examined and found to contain western components made after the sanctions came in to place…

That'll need secondary sanctions. The threat of sanctions for any 3rd countries who facilitate imports to russia would focus their minds. Can't believe it hasn't been done, at least for electronics and war production related materials.

[bmwmike]

borcy said:

Just seen on sky, age for conscription is reduced in Ukraine from 27 to 25.

For some reason I was under the impression there was no conscription, something about it they don't want to fight we don't want them..

[Talksteer]

gotoPzero said:

is-uk said:

Speculation that the new, long range drone used to hit the Shahed drone factory in Tatarstan, may be based on the Aeroprakt A-22, a Ukrainian built two-seat, high-wing, tricycle landing gear ultralight aircraft.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1775068...

Certainly looks like it. And with all the instruments removed etc its probably well within range of the A22.
I am sure they have some clever ways of finding the gaps too, plus I expect it can do 1200km (ish) overnight so in the darkness too.

The plane is the munition, with COTS technology it's relatively easy to allow a light aircraft to navigate with some precision and with multiple changes in direction.

The clever bit is the intelligence to plan the mission. Using NATO SigInt it would be possible to ID Russian air defence assets and where their coverage is masked. It would be possible to ID where and when AWACs is. Large portions of Russia will be radar dead zones and a civilian looking aircraft might not get reported if seen, you might even put lights on it for most of the way.

Russia has a few hundred missile systems which spread over a massive country means that very little of our is actively protected particularly places hundreds of miles from Ukraine.

[hidetheelephants]

bmwmike said:

borcy said:

Just seen on sky, age for conscription is reduced in Ukraine from 27 to 25.

For some reason I was under the impression there was no conscription, something about it they don't want to fight we don't want them..

For every infanteer or tankie at the pointy end there's at least 2 artillery types and an assortment of other support arms, logistics, medics, intelligence, maintenance & repair. Ukraine is much less likely to achieve its objectives without a lot of extra personnel. If nothing else it appears Ukraine has a lack of what were called pioneer units, existing between combat engineers and civil contractors, for the purpose of building and maintaining fixed defences and other infrastructure. Frontline units for the most part shouldn't be digging their own trenches and dugouts, yet 2 years in it seems like they still are.

[Tartan Pixie]

jtremlett said:

is-uk said:

With regard to the sanctions, here is an interesting article by the Wilson Center in Washington, DC.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sanctions-a...

Periodically I read articles that say the sanctions are working and others that say they aren't. In truth, sanctions were never going to make a massive difference. Just look at the various countries that have been subject to sanctions in the past and I can't think of anywhere that has changed course as a result. They are an inconvenience and if Putin doesn't care how many of his troops get killed then he's hardly likely to be bothered if it is a bit harder and more expensive to buy a Rolls Royce in Moscow. There are always enough people prepared to break the sanctions if the price is right.

The problem with sanctions is that they are...
1 - Subtle and difficult to understand
2 - Used by politicians for political purposes
3 - Explained to the public via journalists

The idea that sanctions do/don't work supposes that there is an end game which sanctions should/shouldn't have achieved, as if they were a proxy for kinetic military action which does/doesn't achieve an objective. This is silly. To understand sanctions I would like to reclaim the original definition of the word 'retard', as in to hold back development of a desired attribute.

To use the wiki list of GDP as an example, if you sort by World Bank estimates Turkey comes in at 17th place while Iran is languishing down at 40th. Were they both competing on equal terms I'd be very surprised if Iran wasn't the dominant power out of the two, however Iran has been retarded. This is what sanctions do.

With regards to Russia... Sanctions are not going to win the war or even produce definable military or political outcomes. What they will do is retard Russia in a multitude of ways that will never be worth a headline. The combination of these retardations reduce their offensive capacity.

Edited by Tartan Pixie on Tuesday 2nd April 22:16

[Oliver Hardy]

Anyone know what damage was caused to the facility, BBC suggested that it hit a youth hostile across the road?

And what about the refinery, seems quiet on that one too.

[Digga]

Oliver Hardy said:

Anyone know what damage was caused to the facility, BBC suggested that it hit a youth hostile across the road?

And what about the refinery, seems quiet on that one too.

Say it like you see it.

[borcy]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/17752695...


More ammunition found to supply Ukraine.

[AmyRichardson]

borcy said:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/17752695...


More ammunition found to supply Ukraine.

I increasingly get the feeling that the "Czech initiative" is going to be an ongoing thing; the Czechs simply being a public front-man for nations who manufacturer a lot of ammunition and who like being paid for that ammunition - but for whom the politics of direct supply are unfavourable.

But hey, if it works...

[LivLL]

borcy said:

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1775169...


Recovery of the ukr kamikaze drone

I can’t fathom how there’s so much of it left when you see the size of the explosion on impact!

[borcy]

AmyRichardson said:

borcy said:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/17752695...


More ammunition found to supply Ukraine.

I increasingly get the feeling that the "Czech initiative" is going to be an ongoing thing; the Czechs simply being a public front-man for nations who manufacturer a lot of ammunition and who like being paid for that ammunition - but for whom the politics of direct supply are unfavourable.

But hey, if it works...

It's been going on since the beginning of the invasion but it was a bit me af hoc.
As you say some countries don't want to be seen selling to Ukraine.

[cptsideways]

borcy said:

AmyRichardson said:

borcy said:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/17752695...


More ammunition found to supply Ukraine.

I increasingly get the feeling that the "Czech initiative" is going to be an ongoing thing; the Czechs simply being a public front-man for nations who manufacturer a lot of ammunition and who like being paid for that ammunition - but for whom the politics of direct supply are unfavourable.

But hey, if it works...

It's been going on since the beginning of the invasion but it was a bit me af hoc.
As you say some countries don't want to be seen selling to Ukraine.

The Czechs also good historical reason to get back at the the Russians and rightly so. You won't find many Russian friendly Czechs.

[durbster]

The third point made me lol

Edited by durbster on Wednesday 3rd April 08:25

[RichFN2]

Oliver Hardy said:

Anyone know what damage was caused to the facility, BBC suggested that it hit a youth hostile across the road?

And what about the refinery, seems quiet on that one too.

It was a military drone factory but there have been suggestions that they were using underage workers, and 1 drone hit the accommodation block.

[menguin]

durbster said:

The third point made me lol

Edited by durbster on Wednesday 3rd April 08:25

Amazing