Where its at - FTSE 100
Discussion
DJRC said:
crankedup said:
DJRC said:
crankedup said:
Indeed P-Jay, even Cameron seems to be accepting the need for growth and siding with Hollande. Never thought I would see a Tory Minister, yet alone Prime Minister, siding up with a French Socialist! Hope yet maybe.
Hope for what?!Stop filtering everything through your ideology and start thinking practically. There are *no* ideologies at play in Europe at the moment, only money and how to get more of it out of Germany. That is the only game in town.
As for Germany opening her wallet to bail out others, yes of course thats been the game plan for months, and its now reached the point where the Germans are saying enough is enough, no more cash. If Merkal opened the wallet again her political life will be over. This is the reason Cameron and Hollande are now advocating a way forward with growth as the central platform, the two stronger European partners must place aside their domestic political differences for the betterment of tackling this European meltdown.Your problem appears to be in your belief of whatever rag you happen to read without taking on the views of others in reaching a conclusion. Incidentally if we all placed ideology aside we wouldn't enjoy our democracy.
AJS- said:
Apart from putting a spread bet on a random number, does this figure actually matter to anyone?
It's a reasonably decent barometer for the state of our economy and more importantly seen as an indication of how ‘the city’ – who are meant to know about such things – feels about the near future , rather than any means to any end. crankedup said:
DJRC said:
crankedup said:
DJRC said:
crankedup said:
Indeed P-Jay, even Cameron seems to be accepting the need for growth and siding with Hollande. Never thought I would see a Tory Minister, yet alone Prime Minister, siding up with a French Socialist! Hope yet maybe.
Hope for what?!Stop filtering everything through your ideology and start thinking practically. There are *no* ideologies at play in Europe at the moment, only money and how to get more of it out of Germany. That is the only game in town.
As for Germany opening her wallet to bail out others, yes of course thats been the game plan for months, and its now reached the point where the Germans are saying enough is enough, no more cash. If Merkal opened the wallet again her political life will be over. This is the reason Cameron and Hollande are now advocating a way forward with growth as the central platform, the two stronger European partners must place aside their domestic political differences for the betterment of tackling this European meltdown.Your problem appears to be in your belief of whatever rag you happen to read without taking on the views of others in reaching a conclusion. Incidentally if we all placed ideology aside we wouldn't enjoy our democracy.
"You may view Hollande's policy thinking will bankrupt France but you are coming from a Right wing school of thought, which lets face it is thus far failing in the U.K."
As you have been told on many occasions I live most of the time in Europe and my colleagues, friends and neighbours are all Swiss, French, German and Italians with a few other Brits and nationalities thrown in. My mainstream media news is usually French, German and Swiss with some Italian every now and then. Hollande will bankrupt France with his current announcements, not because of anything right wing at all, but because all he has spoken of so far is vastly increasing French spending on public jobs. Not infrastructure spending nor growth strategies. He has only spoken of increasing growth, but no mention of any policies yet to do so. The vast increase in public sector jobs is not a growth strategy, it was however an election pledge. That is a path to brankruptcy. That isnt right wing, it is simple economics.
"As for Germany opening her wallet to bail out others, yes of course thats been the game plan for months, and its now reached the point where the Germans are saying enough is enough, no more cash. If Merkal opened the wallet again her political life will be over."
Yes I know. *I* advocated that line on here after Bailout 2 in March. You can check back through the thread if you wish. Thankyou for quoting my argument
" This is the reason Cameron and Hollande are now advocating a way forward with growth as the central platform, the two stronger European partners must place aside their domestic political differences for the betterment of tackling this European meltdown."
Cameron isnt on the same platform as Hollande and austerity is the central platform for Cameron. Just as it has been from the minute he walked into office. Analysis of the CMD/Boy George financial performance has been done elsewhere in this thread and the Osbourne thread. Growth was always planned to come in the 2nd half of the Parliamentary term, which is 2nd half of 2012 onwards. If anything Hollande has joined the CMD/Osbourne bandwagon on a timescale they outlined 2 yrs ago.
France didnt vote Hollande in because they think he is the savior. They voted Mr Bruni out because they were sick of his ego and smoke and mirrors act. The actual election results are in fact a good indication of just how lowly Hollande is regarded. Before the campaigning started, Bruni was dead and buried. No sitting President had recorded being as unpopular as he was. The first round saw MleP gain record numbers and the 2nd round saw Bruni close the gap significantly to Hollande. Hollande made no inroads, gained no new supporters from the start of the campaign to the end, he won it because the centre and right deserted Bruni.
You dont live out here. You dont work out here. You know bugger all about being out here.
Strangely this seems to mirror your posts on the coal industry, engineering and manufacturing. In all of which you have been shown up to be wrong, ill-informed, producing piss poor analysis based on limited facts purely to try and illuminate an ideological viewpoint. It is to the considerable good fortune of the UK that you are so useless, otherwise you might be competent enough to be dangerous.
I am indeed fortunate to live in a democracy that pays no heed to ideology because that very democracy doesnt let the politicians have any.
DJRC said:
crankedup said:
DJRC said:
crankedup said:
DJRC said:
crankedup said:
Indeed P-Jay, even Cameron seems to be accepting the need for growth and siding with Hollande. Never thought I would see a Tory Minister, yet alone Prime Minister, siding up with a French Socialist! Hope yet maybe.
Hope for what?!Stop filtering everything through your ideology and start thinking practically. There are *no* ideologies at play in Europe at the moment, only money and how to get more of it out of Germany. That is the only game in town.
As for Germany opening her wallet to bail out others, yes of course thats been the game plan for months, and its now reached the point where the Germans are saying enough is enough, no more cash. If Merkal opened the wallet again her political life will be over. This is the reason Cameron and Hollande are now advocating a way forward with growth as the central platform, the two stronger European partners must place aside their domestic political differences for the betterment of tackling this European meltdown.Your problem appears to be in your belief of whatever rag you happen to read without taking on the views of others in reaching a conclusion. Incidentally if we all placed ideology aside we wouldn't enjoy our democracy.
"You may view Hollande's policy thinking will bankrupt France but you are coming from a Right wing school of thought, which lets face it is thus far failing in the U.K."
As you have been told on many occasions I live most of the time in Europe and my colleagues, friends and neighbours are all Swiss, French, German and Italians with a few other Brits and nationalities thrown in. My mainstream media news is usually French, German and Swiss with some Italian every now and then. Hollande will bankrupt France with his current announcements, not because of anything right wing at all, but because all he has spoken of so far is vastly increasing French spending on public jobs. Not infrastructure spending nor growth strategies. He has only spoken of increasing growth, but no mention of any policies yet to do so. The vast increase in public sector jobs is not a growth strategy, it was however an election pledge. That is a path to brankruptcy. That isnt right wing, it is simple economics.
"As for Germany opening her wallet to bail out others, yes of course thats been the game plan for months, and its now reached the point where the Germans are saying enough is enough, no more cash. If Merkal opened the wallet again her political life will be over."
Yes I know. *I* advocated that line on here after Bailout 2 in March. You can check back through the thread if you wish. Thankyou for quoting my argument
" This is the reason Cameron and Hollande are now advocating a way forward with growth as the central platform, the two stronger European partners must place aside their domestic political differences for the betterment of tackling this European meltdown."
Cameron isnt on the same platform as Hollande and austerity is the central platform for Cameron. Just as it has been from the minute he walked into office. Analysis of the CMD/Boy George financial performance has been done elsewhere in this thread and the Osbourne thread. Growth was always planned to come in the 2nd half of the Parliamentary term, which is 2nd half of 2012 onwards. If anything Hollande has joined the CMD/Osbourne bandwagon on a timescale they outlined 2 yrs ago.
France didnt vote Hollande in because they think he is the savior. They voted Mr Bruni out because they were sick of his ego and smoke and mirrors act. The actual election results are in fact a good indication of just how lowly Hollande is regarded. Before the campaigning started, Bruni was dead and buried. No sitting President had recorded being as unpopular as he was. The first round saw MleP gain record numbers and the 2nd round saw Bruni close the gap significantly to Hollande. Hollande made no inroads, gained no new supporters from the start of the campaign to the end, he won it because the centre and right deserted Bruni.
You dont live out here. You dont work out here. You know bugger all about being out here.
Strangely this seems to mirror your posts on the coal industry, engineering and manufacturing. In all of which you have been shown up to be wrong, ill-informed, producing piss poor analysis based on limited facts purely to try and illuminate an ideological viewpoint. It is to the considerable good fortune of the UK that you are so useless, otherwise you might be competent enough to be dangerous.
I am indeed fortunate to live in a democracy that pays no heed to ideology because that very democracy doesnt let the politicians have any.
I love you analysis regarding the French elections, I'm not saying your wrong its just the amusing word play, the Right and Centre deserted thats why a Socialist was elected!! genius.
Cameron and Osbourne have joined Hollande (at least you agree on that at last) on a policy they outlined two years ago, complete and utter nonsense.
Remove your silly comments and your an empty vessel with nothing to say and even worse what you do say is laughable. "You don't live here" You don't work here' what a completely foolish thing to say, you have undermined any credibility you may have once had.
P-Jay said:
AJS- said:
Apart from putting a spread bet on a random number, does this figure actually matter to anyone?
It's a reasonably decent barometer for the state of our economy and more importantly seen as an indication of how ‘the city’ – who are meant to know about such things – feels about the near future , rather than any means to any end. So what is the LEAST risky place to have investments in view of comments on here and the Euro thread?
Is it shares/ unit trusts which depend on the FTSE and other stock markets, on deposit in banks and building societies ( will they collapse and take our money with them if the Euro goes down and the various at risk states with it) or housing which may depreciate if the economy collapses, or take out cash and keep it in the Ringtons tin under the bed, Or something else, if so what?
Or does it not matter and the best thing we can do is sharpen up our zombie plans for the " carnage" that may occur?
Is it shares/ unit trusts which depend on the FTSE and other stock markets, on deposit in banks and building societies ( will they collapse and take our money with them if the Euro goes down and the various at risk states with it) or housing which may depreciate if the economy collapses, or take out cash and keep it in the Ringtons tin under the bed, Or something else, if so what?
Or does it not matter and the best thing we can do is sharpen up our zombie plans for the " carnage" that may occur?
munky said:
steveatesh said:
So what is the LEAST risky place to have investments in view of comments on here and the Euro thread?
Swiss francs, index-linked UK govt bonds, gold. However, if everything turns out rosy then these assets could suffer. Depends on how much of a stash you have.HowMuchLonger said:
munky said:
steveatesh said:
So what is the LEAST risky place to have investments in view of comments on here and the Euro thread?
Swiss francs, index-linked UK govt bonds, gold. However, if everything turns out rosy then these assets could suffer. Depends on how much of a stash you have.steveatesh said:
So what is the LEAST risky place to have investments in view of comments on here and the Euro thread?
Is it shares/ unit trusts which depend on the FTSE and other stock markets, on deposit in banks and building societies ( will they collapse and take our money with them if the Euro goes down and the various at risk states with it) or housing which may depreciate if the economy collapses, or take out cash and keep it in the Ringtons tin under the bed, Or something else, if so what?
Or does it not matter and the best thing we can do is sharpen up our zombie plans for the " carnage" that may occur?
Spread over a wide area including classic and vintage cars,wine, gold, nothing is beyond taking a hit though so far as I can tell. If your investing on your own behalf pay extra due diligence and keep ear to the ground Is it shares/ unit trusts which depend on the FTSE and other stock markets, on deposit in banks and building societies ( will they collapse and take our money with them if the Euro goes down and the various at risk states with it) or housing which may depreciate if the economy collapses, or take out cash and keep it in the Ringtons tin under the bed, Or something else, if so what?
Or does it not matter and the best thing we can do is sharpen up our zombie plans for the " carnage" that may occur?
at least if you have some tangible products from your investments you can still enjoy them regardless of there worth. Risk averse? under the mattress or premium bonds.My theory is the price of the FTSE is at its current level because people in banks and pension funds who have done their research and know more about this than I do believe it will be x% higher than its current value by the end of the year.
As there is quite a bit of uncertainty with things like whether Greece should be in the Euro etc., there is a bit more risk than putting money in a bank. X is a therefore a high value (possibly 5%). Therefore I think the expected value of the FTSE will be the current value (5391 when I wrote this) +5% = 5661, but with a fairly high probability that you might get 1000 points above or below this (4661-6661).
As there is quite a bit of uncertainty with things like whether Greece should be in the Euro etc., there is a bit more risk than putting money in a bank. X is a therefore a high value (possibly 5%). Therefore I think the expected value of the FTSE will be the current value (5391 when I wrote this) +5% = 5661, but with a fairly high probability that you might get 1000 points above or below this (4661-6661).
World ecponmoy is in the crapper and yet stock markets continue to rise, indicating that in fact they are no longer a barometer of the economic strength of a nation but rather how much money funds and banks have to invest, and need to invest. So why do you think the FTSE will drop to 4995?
Even though thats arguably where it should be.
For an example of the first point, look at what the IBEX did in the week following its biggest drop since 2008. Gained it all back again in just three days! Based on what exactly?
Even though thats arguably where it should be.
For an example of the first point, look at what the IBEX did in the week following its biggest drop since 2008. Gained it all back again in just three days! Based on what exactly?
Mikeyboy said:
World ecponmoy is in the crapper and yet stock markets continue to rise, indicating that in fact they are no longer a barometer of the economic strength of a nation but rather how much money funds and banks have to invest, and need to invest. So why do you think the FTSE will drop to 4995?
Even though thats arguably where it should be.
For an example of the first point, look at what the IBEX did in the week following its biggest drop since 2008. Gained it all back again in just three days! Based on what exactly?
We all know of the problems affecting Europe and America at the moment, the pension funds should find safer havens elsewhere that offer some form of stability. Also I reckon the big funds are already fully invested into the FTSE 100 Companies, the indicator of the top 100 Companies market strength at any given day. Some say that the anticipated fallout, when Greece leaves the euro, has already been factored into the current FTSE 100, that is my gamble as I see the market dropping further when it happens by the end of this year. Our own economy falling into a double dip recession will hardly help confidence putting further strains onto the market. The indicator is only 300/400 off my projection, I have seen those numbers wiped off the FTSE in one day in the past and given the uncertainty at the moment almost anything could trigger huge falls. Your example of the IBEX is typical of the bulls and bears speculation, don't know which will win over.Even though thats arguably where it should be.
For an example of the first point, look at what the IBEX did in the week following its biggest drop since 2008. Gained it all back again in just three days! Based on what exactly?
Back to the FTSE 100. I will end up looking either a bigger twit and out of pocket, or just plain lucky, of course if its the latter I will pretend at that point that I am a genius
Now wait to be slaughtered by the market men in here.
Mikeyboy said:
World ecponmoy is in the crapper and yet stock markets continue to rise, indicating that in fact they are no longer a barometer of the economic strength of a nation but rather how much money funds and banks have to invest, and need to invest. So why do you think the FTSE will drop to 4995?
Even though thats arguably where it should be.
For an example of the first point, look at what the IBEX did in the week following its biggest drop since 2008. Gained it all back again in just three days! Based on what exactly?
They never were a barometer of current economic strength of anything. They are a reflection of investors' expectation of future profits of the companies in the index. The future is of course unknown, and hence the expectation of future profits can be very volatile. At the moment, this expectation is highly related to the future of the Eurozone, which in turn is mostly driven by the expectation of what will happen in the June 17th election in Greece, and the polls are very close on whether the pro or anti bailout parties will win. It changes almost daily, which is why there are swings up and down in equity indices. Spain of course is the second "worst" economy after Greece, and it's fortunes are (in the opinion of investors) highly related to Greece and whether it remains in the Euro or crashes out causing panic and contagion. Spain would be next in line, which is why the IBEX as you mention is rather volatile.Even though thats arguably where it should be.
For an example of the first point, look at what the IBEX did in the week following its biggest drop since 2008. Gained it all back again in just three days! Based on what exactly?
In the case of the FTSE of course, bear in mind that many of the companies in it have nothing at all to do with the UK economy. Today for example the FTSE is down, and most of the "downs" in the index are mining companies (Eurasian, Vedanta, Rio Tinto, Kazakhmys, Glencore, Antofagasta, Xstrata, Anglo American). Being in the FTSE just means that (a) a company's shares are listed on the LSE and (b) it is big. It does not mean it has anything remotely to do with the strength of the UK economy, nor does the company even have to be based here, employ anyone here, pay tax here, report profits here, or sell anything here. Glencore is based in Switzerland. Kazakhmys, although it has an office in London, as its name implies carries out its activities in Kazakhstan.
crankedup said:
Lowest point 5232 thus far recovering some ground at the moment. The ongoing trend is down and its difficult (for an ordinary bod like me)to see what may bring some stability.
An end to the Euro crisis. Although at the moment that's looking as likely as Ed Milliband being prime minister.Interestingly the DAX is down significantly more than the other main indices, mainly due to weak manufacturing data from China..
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