Discussion
crankedup5 said:
Blue62 said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
It’s par for the course, the sort who get sucked into Ponzi schemes. I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
The most sinister aspect of this limited company is the disproportionate amount of media coverage they receive relative to their projected share of the votes. Farage and Tice have their own shows on GBeebies, bankrolled by hedge fund billionaire Paul Marshall and Legatum, a Dubai based investment fund found by a Kiwi billionaire.
A closer inspection of who is bankrolling Reform Ltd reveals some less than savoury characters like Jeremy Hosking, who bankrolls Laurence Fox and George Farmer, previously CEO of far right platform Parler and former chair of far right group Turning Point. To anyone with more than a passing interest in politics it’s abundantly clear what Reform Ltd is really about, Farage and Tice are a front to broaden the party’s appeal by playing on the vulnerabilities of people who generally feel left behind, convincing them that ‘wanting their country back’ is actually a thing.
Reform Ltd may breach 15% this time, whether they can win a seat is another matter, but whatever guise they adopt, from UKIP to Brexit party to Reform, the far right are building a solid base in this country and for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it.
You mention ‘for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it’. You are part of the problem by wishing to see the election of one of the two mainstream parties which has brought about disillusioned voters to the surface. You even express your view as to why this is the reaction from a sector of the electorate.
I’m pleased to see some acknowledgement that at long last my belief in Reform U.K. will be building a solid platform from which they will develop and mature into a credible third party. Maybe even remove the Tory party and become the opposition within a couple of Parliaments.
smn159 said:
oyster said:
Brexit is done and gone.
I don't get the need to revisit that with all the stuff Reform seem to want to campaign on.
Freedom of Movement to/from the EU is now stopped. Immigration is controlled. Job done.
(obviously there's some illegal immigration, but this is only about 5% of the total, so is that really a big deal?
Of course it's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things; it's mainly an issue because we choose not to invest in processing people quickly - but charlatans like Farage and Tice must always have a bogeyman to point at to instil the right level of fear into those with limited critical thinking skills.I don't get the need to revisit that with all the stuff Reform seem to want to campaign on.
Freedom of Movement to/from the EU is now stopped. Immigration is controlled. Job done.
(obviously there's some illegal immigration, but this is only about 5% of the total, so is that really a big deal?
It was 'swarms' of Europeans before, now it's people coming across on boats. If that ever gets solved it will be someone else.
The illegal boat people arriving in ever increasing numbers is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Which is why Mr Flip Flop SKS has announced that he will be ‘smashing the gangs’ who are responsible for organising the boat trips.
Dave200 said:
Brilliant. It didn't take long for you to get to the old "I don't like those facts, so here are some alternative facts that I've made up".
As someone who actually works with statistics on a daily basis, rather than someone who makes up his own, I can tell you that a 14,000 sample size against a population of 68m will give you a roughly 1% margin of error in your results. That poll is very statistically robust.
You're welcome to make up your own facts, but you can't make up how statistical significance and confidence intervals work.
Sample size isn't the issue because it's more than enough, the problems with polling areAs someone who actually works with statistics on a daily basis, rather than someone who makes up his own, I can tell you that a 14,000 sample size against a population of 68m will give you a roughly 1% margin of error in your results. That poll is very statistically robust.
You're welcome to make up your own facts, but you can't make up how statistical significance and confidence intervals work.
1) What is actually asked isn't really what we want to know (the question is basically "who would you vote for if there was a hypothetical election today with no short campaign" NOT "who are you most likely to vote for when the election comes").
2) People are not equally likely to respond to pollsters even if they will vote (Tory voters probably less likely to want to engage with pollsters at the moment).
3) People might treat YouGov as a way to protest.
4) They assume that any don't knows won't vote rather than making reasonable assumptions about where they will go (usually to their previous vote).
The polling numbers reported by YouGov etc are accurate in terms of what they ask and are told, but people only focus on the numbers and don't look at the data generating process or any other information they may have about what they actually want to infer.
crankedup5 said:
smn159 said:
oyster said:
Brexit is done and gone.
I don't get the need to revisit that with all the stuff Reform seem to want to campaign on.
Freedom of Movement to/from the EU is now stopped. Immigration is controlled. Job done.
(obviously there's some illegal immigration, but this is only about 5% of the total, so is that really a big deal?
Of course it's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things; it's mainly an issue because we choose not to invest in processing people quickly - but charlatans like Farage and Tice must always have a bogeyman to point at to instil the right level of fear into those with limited critical thinking skills.I don't get the need to revisit that with all the stuff Reform seem to want to campaign on.
Freedom of Movement to/from the EU is now stopped. Immigration is controlled. Job done.
(obviously there's some illegal immigration, but this is only about 5% of the total, so is that really a big deal?
It was 'swarms' of Europeans before, now it's people coming across on boats. If that ever gets solved it will be someone else.
The illegal boat people arriving in ever increasing numbers is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Which is why Mr Flip Flop SKS has announced that he will be ‘smashing the gangs’ who are responsible for organising the boat trips.
Dave200 said:
crankedup5 said:
Blue62 said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
It’s par for the course, the sort who get sucked into Ponzi schemes. I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
The most sinister aspect of this limited company is the disproportionate amount of media coverage they receive relative to their projected share of the votes. Farage and Tice have their own shows on GBeebies, bankrolled by hedge fund billionaire Paul Marshall and Legatum, a Dubai based investment fund found by a Kiwi billionaire.
A closer inspection of who is bankrolling Reform Ltd reveals some less than savoury characters like Jeremy Hosking, who bankrolls Laurence Fox and George Farmer, previously CEO of far right platform Parler and former chair of far right group Turning Point. To anyone with more than a passing interest in politics it’s abundantly clear what Reform Ltd is really about, Farage and Tice are a front to broaden the party’s appeal by playing on the vulnerabilities of people who generally feel left behind, convincing them that ‘wanting their country back’ is actually a thing.
Reform Ltd may breach 15% this time, whether they can win a seat is another matter, but whatever guise they adopt, from UKIP to Brexit party to Reform, the far right are building a solid base in this country and for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it.
You mention ‘for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it’. You are part of the problem by wishing to see the election of one of the two mainstream parties which has brought about disillusioned voters to the surface. You even express your view as to why this is the reaction from a sector of the electorate.
I’m pleased to see some acknowledgement that at long last my belief in Reform U.K. will be building a solid platform from which they will develop and mature into a credible third party. Maybe even remove the Tory party and become the opposition within a couple of Parliaments.
I’m delighted to see how much Reform U.K. is generating interest but I do acknowledge that as a new political party is will take a couple of Parliaments to develop and mature. Of course if Reform U.K. cannot develop and mature with wider policy proposals with a wider appeal they will rumble along with the other minority parties. It’s how democracy works.
Yes the Greens in particular are a political party with an even narrower main agenda which does only appeal to a small segment of the electorate.
The Lib Dem’s do not appeal, imo, to a broader section of the electorate because of the same reasons attached to the Greens, limited appeal due to limited policy proposals.
Lotusgone said:
crankedup5 said:
smn159 said:
oyster said:
Brexit is done and gone.
I don't get the need to revisit that with all the stuff Reform seem to want to campaign on.
Freedom of Movement to/from the EU is now stopped. Immigration is controlled. Job done.
(obviously there's some illegal immigration, but this is only about 5% of the total, so is that really a big deal?
Of course it's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things; it's mainly an issue because we choose not to invest in processing people quickly - but charlatans like Farage and Tice must always have a bogeyman to point at to instil the right level of fear into those with limited critical thinking skills.I don't get the need to revisit that with all the stuff Reform seem to want to campaign on.
Freedom of Movement to/from the EU is now stopped. Immigration is controlled. Job done.
(obviously there's some illegal immigration, but this is only about 5% of the total, so is that really a big deal?
It was 'swarms' of Europeans before, now it's people coming across on boats. If that ever gets solved it will be someone else.
The illegal boat people arriving in ever increasing numbers is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Which is why Mr Flip Flop SKS has announced that he will be ‘smashing the gangs’ who are responsible for organising the boat trips.
Mr Penguin said:
Dave200 said:
Brilliant. It didn't take long for you to get to the old "I don't like those facts, so here are some alternative facts that I've made up".
As someone who actually works with statistics on a daily basis, rather than someone who makes up his own, I can tell you that a 14,000 sample size against a population of 68m will give you a roughly 1% margin of error in your results. That poll is very statistically robust.
You're welcome to make up your own facts, but you can't make up how statistical significance and confidence intervals work.
Sample size isn't the issue because it's more than enough, the problems with polling areAs someone who actually works with statistics on a daily basis, rather than someone who makes up his own, I can tell you that a 14,000 sample size against a population of 68m will give you a roughly 1% margin of error in your results. That poll is very statistically robust.
You're welcome to make up your own facts, but you can't make up how statistical significance and confidence intervals work.
1) What is actually asked isn't really what we want to know (the question is basically "who would you vote for if there was a hypothetical election today with no short campaign" NOT "who are you most likely to vote for when the election comes").
2) People are not equally likely to respond to pollsters even if they will vote (Tory voters probably less likely to want to engage with pollsters at the moment).
3) People might treat YouGov as a way to protest.
4) They assume that any don't knows won't vote rather than making reasonable assumptions about where they will go (usually to their previous vote).
The polling numbers reported by YouGov etc are accurate in terms of what they ask and are told, but people only focus on the numbers and don't look at the data generating process or any other information they may have about what they actually want to infer.
crankedup5 said:
Dave200 said:
crankedup5 said:
Blue62 said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
It’s par for the course, the sort who get sucked into Ponzi schemes. I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
The most sinister aspect of this limited company is the disproportionate amount of media coverage they receive relative to their projected share of the votes. Farage and Tice have their own shows on GBeebies, bankrolled by hedge fund billionaire Paul Marshall and Legatum, a Dubai based investment fund found by a Kiwi billionaire.
A closer inspection of who is bankrolling Reform Ltd reveals some less than savoury characters like Jeremy Hosking, who bankrolls Laurence Fox and George Farmer, previously CEO of far right platform Parler and former chair of far right group Turning Point. To anyone with more than a passing interest in politics it’s abundantly clear what Reform Ltd is really about, Farage and Tice are a front to broaden the party’s appeal by playing on the vulnerabilities of people who generally feel left behind, convincing them that ‘wanting their country back’ is actually a thing.
Reform Ltd may breach 15% this time, whether they can win a seat is another matter, but whatever guise they adopt, from UKIP to Brexit party to Reform, the far right are building a solid base in this country and for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it.
You mention ‘for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it’. You are part of the problem by wishing to see the election of one of the two mainstream parties which has brought about disillusioned voters to the surface. You even express your view as to why this is the reaction from a sector of the electorate.
I’m pleased to see some acknowledgement that at long last my belief in Reform U.K. will be building a solid platform from which they will develop and mature into a credible third party. Maybe even remove the Tory party and become the opposition within a couple of Parliaments.
I’m delighted to see how much Reform U.K. is generating interest but I do acknowledge that as a new political party is will take a couple of Parliaments to develop and mature. Of course if Reform U.K. cannot develop and mature with wider policy proposals with a wider appeal they will rumble along with the other minority parties. It’s how democracy works.
Yes the Greens in particular are a political party with an even narrower main agenda which does only appeal to a small segment of the electorate.
The Lib Dem’s do not appeal, imo, to a broader section of the electorate because of the same reasons attached to the Greens, limited appeal due to limited policy proposals.
The thing is is that they will only attract so many to their cause. Same with the Greens. There is a limit on who they'll attract and won't go beyond that.
Said before but Reform are at the zenith of what they can achieve right now. They'll never really get beyond 15% and after the election will probably start heamorgering supporters especially if the Tories become electable once again.
They'll become stagnant and a home for nutters like UKIP before them and Farage will now doubt move onto the next grift. Sad thing is that their current supporters won't see it and won't even admit to be taken for a ride.
Said before but Reform are at the zenith of what they can achieve right now. They'll never really get beyond 15% and after the election will probably start heamorgering supporters especially if the Tories become electable once again.
They'll become stagnant and a home for nutters like UKIP before them and Farage will now doubt move onto the next grift. Sad thing is that their current supporters won't see it and won't even admit to be taken for a ride.
crankedup5 said:
Dave200 said:
crankedup5 said:
Blue62 said:
Dave200 said:
Data from where? Data from the largest independent and impartial survey on GE voting intent so far, that's where.
I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
It’s par for the course, the sort who get sucked into Ponzi schemes. I love the idea that you'd attack the survey methodology without knowing a single thing about it, just because it highlights uncomfortable truths about Reform support.
The most sinister aspect of this limited company is the disproportionate amount of media coverage they receive relative to their projected share of the votes. Farage and Tice have their own shows on GBeebies, bankrolled by hedge fund billionaire Paul Marshall and Legatum, a Dubai based investment fund found by a Kiwi billionaire.
A closer inspection of who is bankrolling Reform Ltd reveals some less than savoury characters like Jeremy Hosking, who bankrolls Laurence Fox and George Farmer, previously CEO of far right platform Parler and former chair of far right group Turning Point. To anyone with more than a passing interest in politics it’s abundantly clear what Reform Ltd is really about, Farage and Tice are a front to broaden the party’s appeal by playing on the vulnerabilities of people who generally feel left behind, convincing them that ‘wanting their country back’ is actually a thing.
Reform Ltd may breach 15% this time, whether they can win a seat is another matter, but whatever guise they adopt, from UKIP to Brexit party to Reform, the far right are building a solid base in this country and for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it.
You mention ‘for the sake of democracy we all need to wake up to it’. You are part of the problem by wishing to see the election of one of the two mainstream parties which has brought about disillusioned voters to the surface. You even express your view as to why this is the reaction from a sector of the electorate.
I’m pleased to see some acknowledgement that at long last my belief in Reform U.K. will be building a solid platform from which they will develop and mature into a credible third party. Maybe even remove the Tory party and become the opposition within a couple of Parliaments.
I’m delighted to see how much Reform U.K. is generating interest but I do acknowledge that as a new political party is will take a couple of Parliaments to develop and mature. Of course if Reform U.K. cannot develop and mature with wider policy proposals with a wider appeal they will rumble along with the other minority parties. It’s how democracy works.
Yes the Greens in particular are a political party with an even narrower main agenda which does only appeal to a small segment of the electorate.
The Lib Dem’s do not appeal, imo, to a broader section of the electorate because of the same reasons attached to the Greens, limited appeal due to limited policy proposals.
Dave200 said:
I'm curious. Do you have a better suggestion for getting to the sorts of estimates we're looking at? Or should we all just assume that any bias is largely accounted for in such a huge sample size, and take the results as being largely indicative?
We should assume that bias is accounted for if they accounted for it or it is clearly small.I would suggest defining your question carefully, taking data/models in context and using other available sources of information to come up with election forecasts. As we get closer to election day, the weight given to polling would increase.
crankedup5 said:
I’m delighted to see how much Reform U.K. is generating interest but I do acknowledge that as a new political party is will take a couple of Parliaments to develop and mature.
UKIP had a high water mark of around 13% of the vote a few years back, with Reform polling similar numbers now. The similarity between the parties, including the anti immigrant rhetoric, the party leadership and the type of people that they select as candidates as well as the areas in which they have the strongest support makes it pretty clear that they have a virtually identical support base to the one that UKIP had.There is no evidence whatsoever that Reform will do what UKIP failed to do and go much beyond that support base. They are pretty much seen as the anti-foreigner party and their support is from those who share that view. The vast majority of the country do not.
They are also the party of the right wing culture warrior. Tice and Farage are both populists targeting peoples prejudices and insecurities. They made a big play of Lee Andersons defection, which should tell you all that you need to know about who their target market it.
If you're seriously expecting Reform to attract wider support that the GB News watching frothers, then I fear that disappointment awaits you.
valiant said:
The thing is is that they will only attract so many to their cause. Same with the Greens. There is a limit on who they'll attract and won't go beyond that.
Said before but Reform are at the zenith of what they can achieve right now. They'll never really get beyond 15% and after the election will probably start heamorgering supporters especially if the Tories become electable once again.
They'll become stagnant and a home for nutters like UKIP before them and Farage will now doubt move onto the next grift. Sad thing is that their current supporters won't see it and won't even admit to be taken for a ride.
I tend to agree with this, it's laughable to see some proffering that reform is a 'new political party or force' when it's actually just a rebadged version of a far right, largely racist, movement that has been kicking around for years. It's also a clear sign that the gullible have been gulled again when they fall back on arguing against the two party system as though anyone who finds Reform objectionable must be a supporter of the current system. Said before but Reform are at the zenith of what they can achieve right now. They'll never really get beyond 15% and after the election will probably start heamorgering supporters especially if the Tories become electable once again.
They'll become stagnant and a home for nutters like UKIP before them and Farage will now doubt move onto the next grift. Sad thing is that their current supporters won't see it and won't even admit to be taken for a ride.
The lack of critical thinking on show is enough to convince anyone with half a brain not to align with the typical Reform voter.
b
hstewie said:
hstewie said: They'll have changed name in a "couple of Parliaments" Cranked.
It'll be the next grift.
I don't know about that, I do think they will hang around for a while like the Greens.It'll be the next grift.
It's quite a bit different to UKIP who were founded as a Thatcherite party with most members in the bottom right corner of the political compass but later attracted a bunch of people from the top left, causing a big split when the one thing binding them together (campaigning for Brexit) became much more real after the referendum.
The Brexit Party was founded on the same lines but by that point the Thatcherites could get Brexit from the Tories, so went back and left the authoritarian types to it.
The name change to Reform was just accounting for the change in circumstances after we left the EU IMO.
Something interesting on Times Radio's latest Exit Interview (with Caroline Lucas) was that she thought UKIP only had the sway they did because the Conservatives were in office so they had to protect their outer flank, whereas the Greens were chipping away at Labour in opposition so she thinks the roles will be reversed if Labour win the election with Reform not having much point until the Conservatives are back in government but the Greens holding a lot more influence.
I see the support going towards Reform as democracy in action.
Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
ntiz said:
I see the support going towards Reform as democracy in action.
Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
If the Cons approach the next GE by moving further on to Reform territory then they are doomed - there just aren’t enough votes in the far right end of the political spectrum (fortunately). They need to become a centre/right one nation party again to be electable. Are they going to become a power to compete for government? No doubt it.
But if they do manage to attract enough votes to drastically reduce the Conservative vote leading to them having a terrible GE result. It will affect how the Conservatives approach the next election to attract those votes back.
Thats not to say they will become a mainstream Reform but it will force them to listen and learn a bit. I think Reform are a way of sending a strong message to the larger parties more so Conservatives in this particular case. Although the same could happen on the left with the Green Party if Starmer was to alienate a large enough group of Labour supporters.
Just my 2 pence worth, its better than simply voting in a binary fashion and hoping for the best. As for myself for the first time in my life im totally undecided on m voting intentions.
Killboy said:
crankedup5 said:
I’m delighted to see how much Reform U.K. is generating interest but I do acknowledge that as a new political party is will take a couple of Parliaments to develop and mature.
Do you think they have the right leadership in place to make this happen?smn159 said:
There is no evidence whatsoever that Reform will do what UKIP failed to do and go much beyond that support base. They are pretty much seen as the anti-foreigner party and their support is from those who share that view. The vast majority of the country do not.
A right wing party is bound to attract a few unwelcome racists. That doesn’t make the majority of their supporters racists.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff