The economic consequences of Brexit

[anonymous-user]

///ajd said:

It was, just after the GFC which hit the UK harder than the EZ.

This doesn't disprove the fact that brexit caused the recent sudden dip though does it.

Is that really in doubt?

And what should we do about the "proven fact that Brexit caused the recent sudden dip"? What are you trying to prove here? Is crying about it on the Internet going to help?

[London424]

///ajd said:

London424 said:

///ajd said:

Mr GrimNasty said:

///ajd said:

Sterling dipping - clearly brexit

Nope, look no further than the twin morons Osborne & Carney.

Sterling dipped from 1.30/€ on Thursday night - when remain was predicted - and slumped as low as 1.21/€ before daybreak as leave was declared.

Osborne and Carney didn't make any statements that could have affecting the currency markets between midnight and 0600 did they? The hit was purely related to market reaction to the vote.

PS pound hit new low of 1.14/€ yesterday.

Wasn't it at parity a few years back?

It was, just after the GFC which hit the UK harder than the EZ.

This doesn't disprove the fact that brexit caused the recent sudden dip though does it.

Is that really in doubt?

Well if it was lower in the past we haven't reached a new low have we?

[Otispunkmeyer]

I see lots of chat on fb about the pound weakening against the euro and a lot of smarmy comments along the lines of "well done brexiteers, morons".

Thing is I'm not so sure that anyone making the comments could say why it's a bad thing or why it's a good thing. To them it seems its all bad because the GBP has always been high.

Surely currency is a double edged sword. Does it not reducing our importing power but boost our exporting power?

Is it necessarily a good thing to always have the strongest currency in the world beyond some being able to have a cheap holiday in Europe or being able to get a good price on a German car?

[Likes Fast Cars]

Can be a number of factors, correlations, general sentiment, bad hair day, etc.

Weak export figures from japan, USA data (Fed split on when to increase rates, election looming, etc), ongoing concerns over EU banks.....

I heard Steve Keen on Hard Talk a couple of days ago, he was talking about increases in exports despite tariffs, longer-term large upside for the UK economy.

[steveatesh]

Otispunkmeyer said:

I see lots of chat on fb about the pound weakening against the euro and a lot of smarmy comments along the lines of "well done brexiteers, morons".

Thing is I'm not so sure that anyone making the comments could say why it's a bad thing or why it's a good thing. To them it seems its all bad because the GBP has always been high.

Surely currency is a double edged sword. Does it not reducing our importing power but boost our exporting power?

Is it necessarily a good thing to always have the strongest currency in the world beyond some being able to have a cheap holiday in Europe or being able to get a good price on a German car?

I'm no expert but my understanding is that imported goods will cost us more pounds and as we consume a lot of imported stuff it will lead to inflation. Whilst inflation is low at the moment there is a big lag before the inevitable price rises will hit the high street. On ITV news two nights ago they said that the Produce Price Index, a better indicator of inflation ahead, had taken a big leap with an indicated high stree inflation rate of around 3% next year.

Bad news for savers given interest rates are so st. Bad news for consumers as its not expected wages will go up to match the inflation rate.

Projections of course, but a rising inflation rate is a good bet. From what I've read the countries economic fundamentals are still good of course, it's the uncertainty of what Brexit will finally look like that's responsible.

[Mario149]

alfie2244 said:

Mario149 said:

alfie2244 said:

If somebody states they have a problem, don't dismiss them out of hand, belittle them etc.... even if what concerns them is not a problem in your view, take them seriously, discuss with them why they should not be concerned.....dismissing them out of hand will not make their perceived problem go away and ultimately their problem will become your's one way or another.

I actually completely agree with this, the problem was, to trot out the phrase yet again, the Brexiteer public had apparently "had enough of experts".

Take people's "problem" of immigration: it's been shown time and again that even at the levels we've seen for the last few years we're not being "swamped" or "overrun" by any commonly held definition of the word and almost all the problems pinned on immigration actually have another cause. On several threads here I've posted easily calculable figures (it's not even GCSE maths) which showed that even if we exited in the EU/single market in anything resembling a sensible timescale and stopped *ALL* EU immigration the moment we were able, in 10 years time there'd only be an extra 0.8% or so people in this country.

Should figures like that have been promoted and published more by Remain? Yes. But when the opposing argument consists of non-arguments such as "we've had enough of experts" and vague assertions to "take back control" there's not a lot of point. The Remain campaign was pants, but the Brexit one was positively Trump-esque in it's vagueness. At a certain point I feel you have to stop pandering to people, tell them they're talking bks and ignore them if they carry on. Problem is that doesn't win votes even though it may be the right thing to do.

I agree with much you say but I was thinking more of before the referendum campaigns were even started and possible before even announced where people didn't feel able to talk about their concerns outside their own four walls.....I did type a long reply initially, but even now feel I don't want to get into arguments about it however, unlike many, I have had considerable adverse experiences directly related to uncontrolled immigration but do not feel able to discuss it for fear of "verbal attack" here or elsewhere.

I can def understand why people can be put off posting/talking about immigration. I can't speak for elsewhere, but certainly on here I don't think you'd get "verbal attack" for wanting to talk about "controlling" immigration etc, not least as you'd be in the majority on PH. I had another quite detailed discussion with another poster on it a few weeks ago. I and others don't think that the immigration argument (that there is a real problem, as opposed to the issue of perception that there is a problem) stands up to scrutiny, but I can't off hand hand remember any regular posters on "our" side of the discussion verbally attacking anyone. Hopefully I haven't come across that way ever.

[Mario149]

andymadmak said:

Mario, if somebody has a very important message they want to get across then it is incumbent on them to ensure that it is communicated in such a way as to ensure that it is received and understood. Blaming the audience for not listening is entirely the wrong way of thinking. Taking the view that being forced to find ways to explain your message so that it is understood equals pandering to people means that you really do not stand a chance of making people understand. If you then say bks and decide to ignore the people, then expect the worst possible result for your side of the argument.
The whole tone of the Remain campaign was wrong. When it wasn't looking down it's nose at those contemplating an exit vote, it was making snearing innuendo laden comments about racism and such like. The utter inability of Remain supporters to relate to or even try to understand what was being said by Brexiteers is just as much a part of the issue as Brexiteers not listening to Remains sides arguments. It was easier for Remain to stereotype and insult than it was to engage and debate.
By way of example Most people I know who voted Brexit have no real time for Nigel Farage, Yet time and again we saw insinuations from Remainers that we were all actually disciples of Nigel, and why could we not simply admit that it was all about brown people etc etc. Most people just switched off when they heard that kind of crap
Remainers misread the fact that the lack push back from people like Alfie meant that he agreed with them. In fact, as he so eloquently states, he simply did not feel able to discuss his fears for fear of "verbal attack". It's the whole "shy Tory" phenomenon again and Remain's tactics throughout the Referendum played a key part in creating this situation imho.

The frustrating thing for Remain is that they may have influenced more swing voters if they had been out there with a more positive message. Threats of emergency punishment budgets and an end to Western Civilisation simply do not cut it with the British people.

On the thorny subject of immigration for example, the people did not need to be told there was not a problem and they were just being silly, instead there needed to be a recognition of concerns, however misguided in some cases, and a frank discussion about the likely solutions. If, instead of insinuations of racism and working class ignorance, a Minister had stood up and said "look, we simply cannot stop EU immigration in the way that you would like, we concede that point, but equally we think that by securing the changes that DC did in his negotiations we can actually achieve the same result by a different means , and this is how it will work" then some people might very well have been prepared to listen.

Instead we got wishy washy nonsense and a refusal to admit that immigration was any kind of issue for anyone other than the closet racists and followers of Saint Nigel. That kind of thing is going to get people backs up and they are going to be much more sceptical about any other messages emanating from Remain on other issues too.
When the British public gets a view on an issue then the only thing that will shift it is education and honest reasoning...not the insults, bullying, threats and hyperbole that Remain trotted out. On this and on so many other aspects of the EU the Remain side was completely out of touch with millions of people and it was too arrogant to understand that it had to engage positively if it was to win the arguments.

In the immediate aftermath of the Jo Cox murder, that odious writer Polly Toynbee put a piece in the Guardian that effectively equated all brexit voters with her murderer. It was a shameful, disgusting piece of journalism that her editor should have refused to publish. But publish it he did, and for those that read it it demonstrated not only the desperation of some on the Remain side in the final days as they woke up the the fact that they might actually lose the vote, but also the depths that the pro EU canal was prepared to sink in the protection of their interests. It was one of the things that tipped me towards an exit vote, but I don't expect many Remain voters to understand for one moment why. And that's the reason why Remain lost.

Edited by andymadmak on Wednesday 17th August 09:55

I can't and won't stand here and defend the Remain campaign for many of the reasons you've written above. But as someone who flipped from Remain to Leave and back in the run up to the referendum (not as a result of either campaign I hasten to add) and actually posted about it on here, I like to think I have a fairly open mind. And As I said before, however bad the Remain campaign was, I do believe the Leave one was even worse. As I posted previously, it seems to have been positively Trump-esque. He's saying vote for him (in a pretty much binary vote against HC) on the basis that it will be better so long as the choice is him not her, essentially purely because she's accused of being inherently bad as she represents the establishment, the status quo. Yet he appears to have no clear workable plan, and whatever plans/policies he does have appear to change on an almost daily basis. Even the rhetoric he uses is similar to what we saw: "<country> great, controlling borders, keeping people out, <country's> jobs for <country's> people, sovereignty/doing what's best for <country>, not propping up other countries/organizations etc.

Anyway, on the point of trying to make the argument to those who favoured Leave, Remain messed up but as I alluded to before, it's a catch 22. I don't think you can educate people on something so complex so you're reduced to trying to persuade them using other methods which risks alienating them.

People, esp on here, like to think that the choice was a simple one: yes or no. In terms of marking a ballot paper, it was. In terms of understanding what you're choosing and its ramifications it's most definitely not. I'm pretty sure it's impossible to educate a population to make an informed choice (hence why I don't think a Ref on the issue should have been done) on something so vastly complex either way. And when it's for a choice that will essentially be permanent, when the proposal is something that can't be "undone" like a GE, it's positively daft. It's like having a referendum on whether Stephen Hawking's theory on X is better or his mate's one on it. They could try and explain it in layman's terms on telly and with posters etc, but the vast majority of people wouldn't have the intelligence or knowledge to make an informed decision with so little information so essentially we'd all be guessing based on proaganda. Although if most people who worked in that field seemed to support SH's mate's theory, we'd have a decent idea of which one to vote for. Or if a group of 500 or so scientists was put together who all broadly worked in physics or similar areas, serious time was spent informing them and educating them as to the positives and negatives of each theory, they might have a decent chance of voting for the best one.

[Mario149]

Digga said:

Mrr T said:

5. We have no idea why Merkel agreed to irregular immigration, even if we did, irregular immigration is little to do with the EU and does not effect the UK whether we are in or out of the EU.

The issue for other EU nations is that once in Germany, they are free to go anywhere within the EU. So Merkel has effectively invited people to the whole of the EU.

Only if they get a passport. If the passport requirements in Germany state that you get one 5 mins after being let in, then I'll get worried.

[Mario149]

///ajd said:

If unemployment continues to fall and our GDP grows by more than 2.2% in 2016, it would be fair to say that impending (not implemented) brexit has not adversely affected our economy.

Fingers crossed.

If 2.2% was the original prediction predicated on Remain I'd say that's a fair benchmark. But I'd also add that we'd need to equal or beat our 2017 growth prediction as well.

[Likes Fast Cars]

Mario149 said:

Digga said:

Mrr T said:

5. We have no idea why Merkel agreed to irregular immigration, even if we did, irregular immigration is little to do with the EU and does not effect the UK whether we are in or out of the EU.

The issue for other EU nations is that once in Germany, they are free to go anywhere within the EU. So Merkel has effectively invited people to the whole of the EU.

Only if they get a passport. If the passport requirements in Germany state that you get one 5 mins after being let in, then I'll get worried.

And that my friends is something over which we - or any of the EU member countries - have no control!

[andymadmak]

Mario149 said:

///ajd said:

If unemployment continues to fall and our GDP grows by more than 2.2% in 2016, it would be fair to say that impending (not implemented) brexit has not adversely affected our economy.

Fingers crossed.

If 2.2% was the original prediction predicated on Remain I'd say that's a fair benchmark. But I'd also add that we'd need to equal or beat our 2017 growth prediction as well.

Ahh, already constructing new hurdles I see.

[Digga]

Likes Fast Cars said:

Mario149 said:

Digga said:

Mrr T said:

5. We have no idea why Merkel agreed to irregular immigration, even if we did, irregular immigration is little to do with the EU and does not effect the UK whether we are in or out of the EU.

The issue for other EU nations is that once in Germany, they are free to go anywhere within the EU. So Merkel has effectively invited people to the whole of the EU.

Only if they get a passport. If the passport requirements in Germany state that you get one 5 mins after being let in, then I'll get worried.

And that my friends is something over which we - or any of the EU member countries - have no control!

And they don't need any paperwork to get to Calais, and then illegally board an HGV.

The situation, in the whole, is simply not under control. There is not and has not been a unified strategy from the EU. Hence also why places like Hungary and Macedonia have gone 'off piste' with their own preparations for dealing with the situation.

[Digga]

///ajd said:

Digga said:

As for those who say exports of services outweighs the export of goods, the argument is statistically sound, but has absolutely no direct, personal value to someone who's just lost a job in a steelworks or whose family used to work on trawlers. I do not say this is an economically rational view, but for a good look at how events and situations can polarise sentiment and opinion, see the latest "Thatcher" thread.

Those who see (or saw) the status quo and EU as beneficial to them will have viewed the referendum in an entirely different way to those who were disenfranchised by the economic and political situation in the last few decades. No stronger indicator of this can be found than the abject demise of what was once the worker's party, Labour.

We'd do better to acknowledge difference of opinion and begin to look at the solutions. To anyone with an ounce of pride and backbone, the Olympics ought to prove how, as a nation, we are still capable of doing things autonomously and successfully.

Part of your argument seems to be that we'll have more jobs post brexit, and the banking jobs don't matter. The latest job increases are a welcome surprise for July - lets hope that continues - but I still fear the actual direction we'll see will be a loss of jobs post brexit.

No. My argument is that allowing the financial sector to become so dominant posed a critical risk for us in the GFC, We should have learned from that, but people like you seem to want to plough the same furrow. We need diversification and, unless we want dangerous inequality and welth gaps - both individually and regionally - we need to do a bit better at getting the rest of the country working.

///ajd said:

The Olympics has nothing to do with our economic wellbeing. If you slap a 10% tariff on a nissan quasqai, you can't just ask the workers there to pedddle harder to stay competitve - the factory may well relocate with a loss of jobs. Its just business.

I'm getting that you are a 'glass is half empty and it wasn't clean either' sort of guy. Never mind. The rest of us can take encouragement, even if you cannot.

///ajd said:

I'd be interested to know if there was hard evidence there would be job losses post brexit - would you still have voted leave?

Yes. That is a regrettable risk of the short term issues.

[London424]

http://bloom.bg/2boEvI9

Good news due to Brexit right?

Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?

Edited by London424 on Thursday 18th August 09:56

[Funk]

Moody's: "UK to avoid recession" - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/17/uk-...

[Digga]

London424 said:

http://bloom.bg/2boEvI9

Good news due to Brexit right?

Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?

Edited by London424 on Thursday 18th August 09:56

IME the vast swathe of public aren't too much interested in gloom and doom for too long. The sun is shining and, as I previously mentioned but has been dismissed by some, we are doing incredibly well in the Olympics. Most people feel pretty good right now. Sentiment is (almost) everything.

[London424]

Digga said:

London424 said:

http://bloom.bg/2boEvI9

Good news due to Brexit right?

Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?

Edited by London424 on Thursday 18th August 09:56

IME the vast swathe of public aren't too much interested in gloom and doom for too long. The sun is shining and, as I previously mentioned but has been dismissed by some, we are doing incredibly well in the Olympics. Most people feel pretty good right now. Sentiment is (almost) everything.

Agreed. Its why it's been quite strange seeing so many people wanting failure. Trying to talk everything down.

[Derek Smith]

London424 said:

http://bloom.bg/2boEvI9

Good news due to Brexit right?

Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?

Edited by London424 on Thursday 18th August 09:56

I'm not sure how it can be a result of us leaving as we haven't left yet.

Further, the reasons for the increase in sales does not necessarily suggest 'good' as a description. I'm with those who voted for exit who suggested a few days ago that the drop in the pound and other negative trends had nothing to do with the referendum.

A lot, probably everything in fact, will depend on the negotiations. If we get a good result then exit will be a positive in some ways for this country. If not then we'll have problems. There are no consequences of leaving the eu yet. We haven't left. What we are seeing is the result of the vote, and that is transient.

[Digga]

Derek Smith said:

I'm not sure how it can be a result of us leaving as we haven't left yet.

Further, the reasons for the increase in sales does not necessarily suggest 'good' as a description. I'm with those who voted for exit who suggested a few days ago that the drop in the pound and other negative trends had nothing to do with the referendum.

A lot, probably everything in fact, will depend on the negotiations. If we get a good result then exit will be a positive in some ways for this country. If not then we'll have problems. There are no consequences of leaving the eu yet. We haven't left. What we are seeing is the result of the vote, and that is transient.

To an extend, I have to agree with what you say.

My hope, with regard to the Olympics, is that it makes some (those who need convincing) realise the UK is still a global player and that it provides some positive motivation to all of us.

[don4l]

Derek Smith said:

I'm not sure how it can be a result of us leaving as we haven't left yet.

Further, the reasons for the increase in sales does not necessarily suggest 'good' as a description. I'm with those who voted for exit who suggested a few days ago that the drop in the pound and other negative trends had nothing to do with the referendum.

A lot, probably everything in fact, will depend on the negotiations. If we get a good result then exit will be a positive in some ways for this country. If not then we'll have problems. There are no consequences of leaving the eu yet. We haven't left. What we are seeing is the result of the vote, and that is transient.

The drop in the value of the pound is not a negative.

It has provided British manufacturers and exporters with an immediate boost.

There has been a constant stream of good (economic) news since the Brexit vote, and yet some of you seem intent on talking your country down.

You should all be ashamed of yourselves.