The economic consequences of Brexit
Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit
Total Members Polled: 732
Discussion
Derek Smith said:
London424 said:
http://bloom.bg/2boEvI9
Good news due to Brexit right?
Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?
I'm not sure how it can be a result of us leaving as we haven't left yet.Good news due to Brexit right?
Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?
Edited by London424 on Thursday 18th August 09:56
Any good news post Brexit is discounted because we haven't actually left yet.
Any bad news is because the UK voted to leave and the fact that we haven't left yet is irrelevant.
Have I got that right?
don4l said:
The drop in the value of the pound is not a negative.
It has provided British manufacturers and exporters with an immediate boost.
There has been a constant stream of good (economic) news since the Brexit vote, and yet some of you seem intent on talking your country down.
You should all be ashamed of yourselves.
The drop in the pound is neither positive nor negative in as much as it has benefits for some and disadvantages for others. It's very easy to make simple and absolute statements (and that's not directed at you specifically, more a generality) but in actuality the situation is much more complex - and transient - than that IMO.It has provided British manufacturers and exporters with an immediate boost.
There has been a constant stream of good (economic) news since the Brexit vote, and yet some of you seem intent on talking your country down.
You should all be ashamed of yourselves.
don'tbesilly said:
Derek Smith said:
London424 said:
http://bloom.bg/2boEvI9
Good news due to Brexit right?
Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?
I'm not sure how it can be a result of us leaving as we haven't left yet.Good news due to Brexit right?
Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?
Edited by London424 on Thursday 18th August 09:56
Any good news post Brexit is discounted because we haven't actually left yet.
Any bad news is because the UK voted to leave and the fact that we haven't left yet is irrelevant.
Have I got that right?
Tallow said:
The drop in the pound is neither positive nor negative in as much as it has benefits for some and disadvantages for others. It's very easy to make simple and absolute statements (and that's not directed at you specifically, more a generality) but in actuality the situation is much more complex - and transient - than that IMO.
I disagree.Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.
The last time when the Pound had a similar fall was when we were ejected from the ERM. Our GDP went from minus 0.2% to +2.7%.
You can see the figures here:-
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105...
don4l said:
Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.
A one sided view.What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?
What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
PurpleMoonlight said:
A one sided view.
What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?
What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
Businesses that import for retail will be forced to raise prices in the UK, but would suffer no competitive disadvantage in the market. Some would be able to resource from the UK if that offered an advantage.What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?
What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
Manufacturers who do not export would gain advantage over imported competition.
PurpleMoonlight said:
don4l said:
Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.
A one sided view.What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?
PurpleMoonlight said:
What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
They will face less competition from importers.This is also good news for British jobs.
This isn't complicated. In fact, it is very basic stuff.
don4l said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
don4l said:
Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.
A one sided view.What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?
PurpleMoonlight said:
What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
They will face less competition from importers.This is also good news for British jobs.
This isn't complicated. In fact, it is very basic stuff.
Will it be a case of you can buy from us but we don't want your products.
Edit will instead of I'll..
Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 18th August 20:42
Digga said:
o an extend, I have to agree with what you say.
My hope, with regard to the Olympics, is that it makes some (those who need convincing) realise the UK is still a global player and that it provides some positive motivation to all of us.
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.My hope, with regard to the Olympics, is that it makes some (those who need convincing) realise the UK is still a global player and that it provides some positive motivation to all of us.
It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.
A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.
Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
///ajd said:
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.
It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.
A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.
Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
The UK is not isolationist. Its the EU which is a protectionist bloc. We do fund, with foreign aid, nations which are in greatest need. Why pour money into some of the richest countries on the planet?It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.
A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.
Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
We can do all the good things which we choose to do better outside the EU.
s2art said:
///ajd said:
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.
It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.
A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.
Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
The UK is not isolationist. Its the EU which is a protectionist bloc. We do fund, with foreign aid, nations which are in greatest need. Why pour money into some of the richest countries on the planet?It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.
A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.
Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
We can do all the good things which we choose to do better outside the EU.
It is interesting to hear about brexiters talk enthusiastically about 'buying more british' one minute, then saying 'we're not isolationist' the next.
///ajd said:
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.
It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.
A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.
Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
The UK is not isolationist. Its the EU which is a protectionist bloc. We do fund, with foreign aid, nations which are in greatest need. Why pour money into some of the richest countries on the planet?It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.
A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.
Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
We can do all the good things which we choose to do better outside the EU.
///ajd said:
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.
It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.
A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.
Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to feel the need to be part of the EU. It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.
A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.
Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
don4l said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
don4l said:
Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.
A one sided view.What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?
PurpleMoonlight said:
What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
They will face less competition from importers.This is also good news for British jobs.
This isn't complicated. In fact, it is very basic stuff.
What about the British jobs in the businesses importing goods?
Your whole argument is centred on those businesses that gain by a weaker pound and completely ignores those that lose by it.
don4l said:
The drop in the value of the pound is not a negative.
Yes it is.From Simon Taylor.
Simon Taylor said:
The fall in the pound is to some extent a pricing in of the UK’s lower future income. The UK is already poorer; we are no longer the world’s fifth biggest economy, having fallen behind France at current exchange rates. British people can now afford to buy less from the rest of the world. The most immediate example is the higher cost of foreign holidays. The lower pound (the value of which may well continue to fluctuate but at a lower average level) represents a cut in British income.
Or from Simon Wren-Lewis.Simon Wren-Lewis said:
Economists say never reason from a price change, but instead ask why prices have changed. There are two possible reasons why sterling may have depreciated immediately the vote was announced. The first is that markets think UK exporters need to become more competitive in the longer term to offset the impact of Brexit, because Brexit will make it harder to export to the EU. In short, we are poorer because of Brexit.
Now it is true that markets are anticipating a future event (Brexit has not happened yet), so in theory there will be a short term boost to exports as firms benefit from the depreciation now, but the costs of Brexit come later. But that brings us to the second reason for a depreciation: markets believe Brexit will cause an economic downturn in the UK, implying lower levels of UK interest rates. (In this they have been proved correct). The fact that they were expecting lower interest rates even though exporters get a short term boost tells you that this boost is at best just going to make things a bit less bad than they might otherwise be.
Now it is true that markets are anticipating a future event (Brexit has not happened yet), so in theory there will be a short term boost to exports as firms benefit from the depreciation now, but the costs of Brexit come later. But that brings us to the second reason for a depreciation: markets believe Brexit will cause an economic downturn in the UK, implying lower levels of UK interest rates. (In this they have been proved correct). The fact that they were expecting lower interest rates even though exporters get a short term boost tells you that this boost is at best just going to make things a bit less bad than they might otherwise be.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Still one sided.
What about the British jobs in the businesses importing goods?
Your whole argument is centred on those businesses that gain by a weaker pound and completely ignores those that lose by it.
Not to mention the public who will ultimately pay.What about the British jobs in the businesses importing goods?
Your whole argument is centred on those businesses that gain by a weaker pound and completely ignores those that lose by it.
Will benefits be going up to help the poor ? Where will the money come from ?
How will our trade deals go? Will we look like a better country to deal with. Whoever we deal with will want us to buy from them.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Still one sided.
What about the British jobs in the businesses importing goods?
Your whole argument is centred on those businesses that gain by a weaker pound and completely ignores those that lose by it.
It's not about being one sided, it's about recognizing that on balance the advantage outweigh the disadvantages. Imports aren't going to stop, they are just going to become a bit more expensive.What about the British jobs in the businesses importing goods?
Your whole argument is centred on those businesses that gain by a weaker pound and completely ignores those that lose by it.
If the pound were to go up, would you be celebrating, or saying 'but what about exporters, we are all doomed'?
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