The economic consequences of Brexit

The economic consequences of Brexit

Poll: The economic consequences of Brexit

Total Members Polled: 732

Far worse off than EU countries.: 15%
A bit worse off than if we'd stayed in.: 35%
A bit better off than if we'd stayed in.: 41%
Roughly as rich as the Swiss.: 10%
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Author
Discussion

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

159 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
The drop in the value of the pound is not a negative.
Depends on your point of view.

Importers aren't dead chuffed.

Holidays will be dearer and you will get less foreign currency to spend.

don'tbesilly

13,962 posts

165 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
London424 said:
http://bloom.bg/2boEvI9

Good news due to Brexit right?

Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?

Edited by London424 on Thursday 18th August 09:56
I'm not sure how it can be a result of us leaving as we haven't left yet.
So the rules are the following:

Any good news post Brexit is discounted because we haven't actually left yet.

Any bad news is because the UK voted to leave and the fact that we haven't left yet is irrelevant.

Have I got that right?

Tallow

1,624 posts

163 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
The drop in the value of the pound is not a negative.

It has provided British manufacturers and exporters with an immediate boost.

There has been a constant stream of good (economic) news since the Brexit vote, and yet some of you seem intent on talking your country down.

You should all be ashamed of yourselves.
The drop in the pound is neither positive nor negative in as much as it has benefits for some and disadvantages for others. It's very easy to make simple and absolute statements (and that's not directed at you specifically, more a generality) but in actuality the situation is much more complex - and transient - than that IMO.

London424

12,830 posts

177 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Derek Smith said:
London424 said:
http://bloom.bg/2boEvI9

Good news due to Brexit right?

Looks like the experts got it wrong again huh?

Edited by London424 on Thursday 18th August 09:56
I'm not sure how it can be a result of us leaving as we haven't left yet.
So the rules are the following:

Any good news post Brexit is discounted because we haven't actually left yet.

Any bad news is because the UK voted to leave and the fact that we haven't left yet is irrelevant.

Have I got that right?
I did try to clarify the rules yesterday and thought I'd got them right but now the goal posts have shifted again. It's hard to keep track!

don4l

10,058 posts

178 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
Tallow said:
The drop in the pound is neither positive nor negative in as much as it has benefits for some and disadvantages for others. It's very easy to make simple and absolute statements (and that's not directed at you specifically, more a generality) but in actuality the situation is much more complex - and transient - than that IMO.
I disagree.

Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.

The last time when the Pound had a similar fall was when we were ejected from the ERM. Our GDP went from minus 0.2% to +2.7%.


You can see the figures here:-
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105...



PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

159 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.
A one sided view.

What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?

What about manufacturers that are not exporting?

s2art

18,939 posts

255 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
A one sided view.

What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?

What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
Businesses that import for retail will be forced to raise prices in the UK, but would suffer no competitive disadvantage in the market. Some would be able to resource from the UK if that offered an advantage.

Manufacturers who do not export would gain advantage over imported competition.

don4l

10,058 posts

178 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
don4l said:
Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.
A one sided view.

What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?
They will face stiffer competition from UK based companies. This is good news for British jobs.

PurpleMoonlight said:
What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
They will face less competition from importers.

This is also good news for British jobs.

This isn't complicated. In fact, it is very basic stuff.



anonymous-user

56 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
don4l said:
Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.
A one sided view.

What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?
They will face stiffer competition from UK based companies. This is good news for British jobs.

PurpleMoonlight said:
What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
They will face less competition from importers.

This is also good news for British jobs.

This isn't complicated. In fact, it is very basic stuff.
How will this help our trade deals ?

Will it be a case of you can buy from us but we don't want your products.


Edit will instead of I'll..






Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 18th August 20:42

///ajd

8,964 posts

208 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
Digga said:
o an extend, I have to agree with what you say.

My hope, with regard to the Olympics, is that it makes some (those who need convincing) realise the UK is still a global player and that it provides some positive motivation to all of us.
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.

It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.

A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.

Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?





s2art

18,939 posts

255 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.

It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.

A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.

Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
The UK is not isolationist. Its the EU which is a protectionist bloc. We do fund, with foreign aid, nations which are in greatest need. Why pour money into some of the richest countries on the planet?

We can do all the good things which we choose to do better outside the EU.

///ajd

8,964 posts

208 months

Thursday 18th August 2016
quotequote all
s2art said:
///ajd said:
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.

It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.

A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.

Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
The UK is not isolationist. Its the EU which is a protectionist bloc. We do fund, with foreign aid, nations which are in greatest need. Why pour money into some of the richest countries on the planet?

We can do all the good things which we choose to do better outside the EU.
Brexit is isolationist from the EU by definition. All this love europe but not the EU doesn't wash.

It is interesting to hear about brexiters talk enthusiastically about 'buying more british' one minute, then saying 'we're not isolationist' the next.






s2art

18,939 posts

255 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.

It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.

A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.

Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
The UK is not isolationist. Its the EU which is a protectionist bloc. We do fund, with foreign aid, nations which are in greatest need. Why pour money into some of the richest countries on the planet?

We can do all the good things which we choose to do better outside the EU.

anonymous-user

56 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
The UK doesn't have to be isolationist to be great.

It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to shrink away from the EU.

A truely Great Britain would think nothing of helping to fund & support a common community of neighbours.

Are we so poor we must shy away and be nationalistic?
It is a sign of weakness and insecurity to feel the need to be part of the EU.

Sylvaforever

2,212 posts

100 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
///ajd said:
Brexit is isolationist from the EU by definition. All this love europe but not the EU doesn't wash.

It is interesting to hear about brexiters talk enthusiastically about 'buying more british' one minute, then saying 'we're not isolationist' the next.
spin

PurpleMoonlight

22,362 posts

159 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
don4l said:
Imports are going to be more expensive, which will make UK products more competitive. Exports will be cheaper, which is great news for UK manufacturers.
A one sided view.

What about businesses that are importing to retail in the UK?
They will face stiffer competition from UK based companies. This is good news for British jobs.

PurpleMoonlight said:
What about manufacturers that are not exporting?
They will face less competition from importers.

This is also good news for British jobs.

This isn't complicated. In fact, it is very basic stuff.
Still one sided.

What about the British jobs in the businesses importing goods?

Your whole argument is centred on those businesses that gain by a weaker pound and completely ignores those that lose by it.

Graemsay

612 posts

214 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
don4l said:
The drop in the value of the pound is not a negative.
Yes it is.

From Simon Taylor.

Simon Taylor said:
The fall in the pound is to some extent a pricing in of the UK’s lower future income. The UK is already poorer; we are no longer the world’s fifth biggest economy, having fallen behind France at current exchange rates. British people can now afford to buy less from the rest of the world. The most immediate example is the higher cost of foreign holidays. The lower pound (the value of which may well continue to fluctuate but at a lower average level) represents a cut in British income.
Or from Simon Wren-Lewis.

Simon Wren-Lewis said:
Economists say never reason from a price change, but instead ask why prices have changed. There are two possible reasons why sterling may have depreciated immediately the vote was announced. The first is that markets think UK exporters need to become more competitive in the longer term to offset the impact of Brexit, because Brexit will make it harder to export to the EU. In short, we are poorer because of Brexit.

Now it is true that markets are anticipating a future event (Brexit has not happened yet), so in theory there will be a short term boost to exports as firms benefit from the depreciation now, but the costs of Brexit come later. But that brings us to the second reason for a depreciation: markets believe Brexit will cause an economic downturn in the UK, implying lower levels of UK interest rates. (In this they have been proved correct). The fact that they were expecting lower interest rates even though exporters get a short term boost tells you that this boost is at best just going to make things a bit less bad than they might otherwise be.

anonymous-user

56 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Still one sided.

What about the British jobs in the businesses importing goods?

Your whole argument is centred on those businesses that gain by a weaker pound and completely ignores those that lose by it.
Not to mention the public who will ultimately pay.

Will benefits be going up to help the poor ? Where will the money come from ?

How will our trade deals go? Will we look like a better country to deal with. Whoever we deal with will want us to buy from them.



Dr Jekyll

Original Poster:

23,820 posts

263 months

Friday 19th August 2016
quotequote all
PurpleMoonlight said:
Still one sided.

What about the British jobs in the businesses importing goods?

Your whole argument is centred on those businesses that gain by a weaker pound and completely ignores those that lose by it.
It's not about being one sided, it's about recognizing that on balance the advantage outweigh the disadvantages. Imports aren't going to stop, they are just going to become a bit more expensive.

If the pound were to go up, would you be celebrating, or saying 'but what about exporters, we are all doomed'?
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