Discussion
Pardon the over simpleness of this but is the oil price and supply turning into a sort of game of chicken.
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
A.J.M said:
Pardon the over simpleness of this but is the oil price and supply turning into a sort of game of chicken.
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
Can someone explain, in simple terms, the reasons for the price of oil to be dropping to $50a barrel where as it was over $110 dollars not so long ago. Whats causing the drop in price, and what happened to the explanation of high oil prices to start with. Im sure i remember reading something that said the cost of oil production alone is about $80 a barrel?
RZ1 said:
A.J.M said:
Pardon the over simpleness of this but is the oil price and supply turning into a sort of game of chicken.
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
Can someone explain, in simple terms, the reasons for the price of oil to be dropping to $50a barrel where as it was over $110 dollars not so long ago. Whats causing the drop in price, and what happened to the explanation of high oil prices to start with. Im sure i remember reading something that said the cost of oil production alone is about $80 a barrel?
RZ1 said:
A.J.M said:
Pardon the over simpleness of this but is the oil price and supply turning into a sort of game of chicken.
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
Can someone explain, in simple terms, the reasons for the price of oil to be dropping to $50a barrel where as it was over $110 dollars not so long ago. Whats causing the drop in price, and what happened to the explanation of high oil prices to start with. Im sure i remember reading something that said the cost of oil production alone is about $80 a barrel?
since the exchange was brought by the US banks, they effectively 'manipulate' it now, (and by banks I mean JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs etc).
oil production costs vary a lot, Saudi is probably the cheapest (~$15), North sea is somewhat more (~$50), and one can assume that shale oil is not cheap either.
currently, there is oil everywhere, demand is pretty low, and had been for some time, but production has not fallen in sync (nobody wants to give up the income), this has finally broken the back of the banks ability to rigg the market and keep the prices high (although they still are able to push it around to a large extent).
Ultimately, this current situation cannot last forever, it's a question of who blinks first.
RZ1 said:
Can someone explain, in simple terms, the reasons for the price of oil to be dropping to $50 a barrel where as it was over $110 dollars not so long ago. Whats causing the drop in price, and what happened to the explanation of high oil prices to start with. Im sure i remember reading something that said the cost of oil production alone is about $80 a barrel?
You could try reading some news media sometime, eh ? ->The Saudis are the leading player in OPEC. Normally they
manage the price of oil by over / under production.
However, the Saudis have chosen to kick in the teeth their sworn enemies
the Iraqis and the Russians, who are also both primary producers.
Extraction costs for the Saudis are about $2 - $3 a barrel, so they
are still making a profit. Iraq and Russia are suffering big time.
The Saudis have smiles on their faces.
A side effect of this OPEC price reduction is that US shale oil is stuffed.
Break even point of US shale oil is about $80 a barrel, so there is
no point extracting it.
The price reduction is good political news in Western Europe too.
Low fuel prices mean low inflation, which helps get political leaders
re-elected. No points for guessing which major European country
has an election coming up soon.
I assume that in 3-6 months time Obama will have to have a quiet
word with Crown Prince Whatever of Saudi to have the oil price
go back up to something reasonable.
hornet said:
simoid said:
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/jan/11/petro...
Small retailer in Birmingham cuts to under a £/l due to getting a great deal with his supplier.
How has he pulled that one off!? Got a month of free fuel in return for his first born child or something? Can't imagine he's getting it cheaper than supermarkets
Or is it the publicity stunt...
Appears to be a Harvest Energy dealer, so presenting him as a small retailer taking the fight to the big boys is a touch misleading, as I doubt this is his decision. Harvest are an import/blender as opposed to a refiner, so will be benefiting from the recent price drops. They also supply a lot of the supermarkets, which would explain why they are able to undercut them in this example. Part owned by Trafigura, so not short of access to the markets.Small retailer in Birmingham cuts to under a £/l due to getting a great deal with his supplier.
How has he pulled that one off!? Got a month of free fuel in return for his first born child or something? Can't imagine he's getting it cheaper than supermarkets
Or is it the publicity stunt...
Do wonder what the downstream industry is going to look like in five to ten years?
A.J.M said:
Pardon the over simpleness of this but is the oil price and supply turning into a sort of game of chicken.
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
The Yanks can afford to go much, much lower still.The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
Art0ir said:
A.J.M said:
Pardon the over simpleness of this but is the oil price and supply turning into a sort of game of chicken.
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
The Yanks can afford to go much, much lower still.The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
It could just be complete b
ks thoughThe "use the rest of the worlds oil first" is a theory I have always assumed to be true. look at it this way Saudi etc have oil thats easy to extract but its useless if no one buys it so its a mutual relationship we use there cheapish oil they get money. Then when it all runs out we use our own shale oil an gas an coal tar sands oil an Falkland Oil and North sea magic Oil (see Scottish refurrendum thread) etc an once again the West rules the world (or more likely just carrys on as normal).
It makes economic sense use the cheap easy stuff first then when no other option extract the other stuff in the mean time devlope technology so the other stuff is cheaper to get at.
Also I seem to recall Iraqi has lots of oil but is a bit unstable at the moment surely years from now the people there be they current crop or extreamist will want to sell that stuff to bring in the cash. Its like Gaza etc the people there hate the west but there goverment were happy to take aid from the USA EU and Israil just so long as the people did not know. Oil is wonderful if some one wants to buy it so cheap oil might be here for a while or we will go back to using our own stuff
It makes economic sense use the cheap easy stuff first then when no other option extract the other stuff in the mean time devlope technology so the other stuff is cheaper to get at.
Also I seem to recall Iraqi has lots of oil but is a bit unstable at the moment surely years from now the people there be they current crop or extreamist will want to sell that stuff to bring in the cash. Its like Gaza etc the people there hate the west but there goverment were happy to take aid from the USA EU and Israil just so long as the people did not know. Oil is wonderful if some one wants to buy it so cheap oil might be here for a while or we will go back to using our own stuff
Edited by Gecko1978 on Tuesday 13th January 16:00
ZOLLAR said:
Art0ir said:
A.J.M said:
Pardon the over simpleness of this but is the oil price and supply turning into a sort of game of chicken.
The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
The Yanks can afford to go much, much lower still.The US and Saudi's both want a large share/control of the market, both sides have a lot to lose from losing it.
Is it going to see who blinks first, knowing that whoever does will always be remembered for doing so and possibly lose face/market control share?
It could just be complete b
ks though
Thanks for the replies guy's. Goes with what i can find elsewhere from looking around.
The double happiness of this is my fuel bills go lower, and it also is a large thorn in my yes voting mates who all claimed oil would only go up...
!
103.9p and 110.9p last night at an Esso, i filled the tank for £90.09 a year ago it was £115+!
The double happiness of this is my fuel bills go lower, and it also is a large thorn in my yes voting mates who all claimed oil would only go up...
!
103.9p and 110.9p last night at an Esso, i filled the tank for £90.09 a year ago it was £115+!
moanthebairns said:
hidetheelephants said:
It's all over! They're going back up! At my local it was 104.9 on Tuesday and 106.9 yesterday!
I noticed this as well, wtf. I'm still £1.11 for super, I feel cheated.bear in mind oil used on the forecourt today was priced in december, current oil price (in the $48's today) relate to future contracts (Feb).
Scuffers said:
moanthebairns said:
hidetheelephants said:
It's all over! They're going back up! At my local it was 104.9 on Tuesday and 106.9 yesterday!
I noticed this as well, wtf. I'm still £1.11 for super, I feel cheated.bear in mind oil used on the forecourt today was priced in december, current oil price (in the $48's today) relate to future contracts (Feb).
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